Post#4 » by One_and_Done » Tue Sep 9, 2025 11:39 pm
For me, this exercise is all about assessing a players impact. How we do that is a trickier exercise, but you should be able to see indicators that strongly validate the claimed impact of a player, which survives logical scrutiny.
In the case of Jokic who just got in, it’s not that I think we shouldn’t have been discussing him soon, but for me it was just too early for him. We all know that various numbers say Jokic is amazing, and to a degree I agree he is, but in my mind there are indicators which strongly suggest his peak impact is a little overrated.
Looking at Jokic’s last 3 years, which people will use when citing his “peak” performance, we see his teams only won 53, 57, and 50 games, with middling SRS, and were bumped in the 2nd round twice (once by a team that was really nothing special). That should give us pause. Jokic’s advocates will say that it’s not his fault, and if you look at RAPMVORPCOPTER he was a god. In short, I don’t agree. I think Jokic has had plenty of help around him to achieve more. That may sound harsh, and if we were comparing him to the likes of Kobe or Karl Malone then it would indeed be a harsh assessment. But Jokic is being compared to the best of the best, guys like Duncan and Lebron who did indeed carry worse teams to better results. Of course, those 2 are in now, but I think plenty of remaining names show more capability to lift their teams than Jokic.
Yes, Shaq often had good teams around him, but then let’s look at the times that wasn’t so. The Lakers with Shaq and without Kobe from 00-04, and they play like a 60+ win team with Shaq and no Kobe (31-11), but are a sub-500 team with Kobe and without Shaq. Those Kobe-less support casts from 00-04 were far worse than anything Jokic played with. But then you look further. Shaq was always the best player on his team until 06, and you can see lots of samples that show his substantial lift. For instance, the 96 Magic were 40-14 with Shaq, and only 20-8 without him. The 97 Lakers were 38-13 with Shaq, but only 18-13 without him. The 98 Lakers were 46-14 with him, but only 15-7 without him. I could go on. Shaq in 2005 was the last legitimate year of full-time prime Shaq, and the Heat won 59 that year. The next year with Shaq’s drop off they fell to 52 wins, then 44, then 15, then 43. Obviously Wade was hurt in the 15 win season, but the clear drop off was largely due on the absence of a prime Shaq. The Magic dropped from 60 wins to 45 after he left. Even rookie Shaq saw his team improve 20 wins, and that was far from peak Shaq.
Shaq’s huge lift was there, and in the playoffs he was just as devastating. I look at Jokic’s team, and I find it hard to buy that his impact is as big as his numbers suggest when he has such good players around him. Jamal Murray has had his ups and downs, but when healthy he’s an all-star calibre guard. When Jokic did go all the way, Murray was healthy and looked unbelievably good. A.Gordon is a borderline all-star. Michael Porter is gone now, but he got a max for a reason. The dude is a good player, and we’ll probably be reminded of that now that he’s more of a focal point player for the Nets. There was usually a good 3&D guy to round out the starting 5 too, and sometimes a few good bench players. A player with one of the best peaks ever needs to be doing more with a team like that.
From a logical point of view, I have always been concerned about Jokic’s defensive issues, especially in the pick and roll, and it’s not a surprise that the one year he won a title he got a slate of opponents who couldn’t attack him there (no Boston, no OKC, no Dallas, not even a Memphis). Jokic got a run of West teams who the Nuggets matched up favourably with, and then in the finals the Heat ran out of gas (and had injuries) and were also a favourable match up. There was no pick and roll, 5 out spacing to kill Jokic. On the other hand, the Heat matched up exceedingly well with Boston, and edged them out. The day of the deciding game in the ECFs, the oddsmakers (quite rightly) had Boston as the title favourite over both Denver and Miami, because they knew if Boston got through they’d roll them. By Pelton’s statistical analysis the Nuggets were the 2nd weakest champs between 2000 and 2023, behind the Heat. Like Pelton, I think that’s a little unfair, and doesn’t account for a lot of factors, but like with the Heat I felt confident they weren’t repeating. In fact I posted vociferously at the time that the Nuggets were a good chance to lose in the 2nd round the next year, which they have done in both the following years.
I am more impressed by what Giannis did in 2021 than I am by Jokic’s best year. The carry-job was more significant. I think Curry’s 2022 title was also a more impressive carry job than any of Jokic’s runs. Curry had comparatively little around him that year. Kawhi is trickier, as his peak is so limited, but I don’t feel like I can punish him for getting a random injury in the 2017 WCFs, not when others are nominating people like 09 Lebron who only made it to the ECFs, or Jokic’s 25 and 24 runs, where he only made the 2nd round, or people who will nominate late 70s Kareem who did even worse. Those guys didn’t even make it to the conference finals to get injured, so how can I punish Kawhi for it? He was healthy enough.
In the case of Kawhi, I think he’s got fewer weaknesses than Jokic, while also having a similar (and more portable) lift. Kawhi just didn’t have much around him in 2017, and I think if he’d stayed healthy the Spurs might have actually won that series. Giannis similarly has fewer weaknesses (despite the lack of 3pt shooting), and like Kawhi kills it on both ends of the floor without warping your whole defence as Jokic does. Curry is only a decent defensive player at best, but he plays the position where defence matters the least, so he hurts you the least and is more portable also. Shaq just peaked higher, and had more impact on the floor, plus was less of a liability on both ends. I expect I’ll get no support for Kawhi, but I don’t care. He was insane in 2017, and basically had an out of body experience those playoffs (even moreso than in 2019).
With Curry getting in last time, my new 4th place vote getter is KG, though I was tempted by KD.
1. Shaq (2001)
2. Kawhi (2017, then 2019)
3. Giannis (2021)
4. KG (2004)
HM: KG, Jokic, Luka, KD, SGA, CP3, Harden, Nash, T-Mac, Wade, and Dirk.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
