Offensive GOAT - Michael Jordan Playoff ON-OFF

[Djoker]

Because we're talking about MJ and the playoffs...

Watch on YouTube

Yea I watched this. It's interesting that Payton didn't do all that well guarding MJ at all. That was my impression watching the series as well. The Sonics as a team were good at closing off the paint and making MJ shoot jumpers and he was just off shooting those last three games.

[tsherkin]

Yea I watched this. It's interesting that Payton didn't do all that well guarding MJ at all. That was my impression watching the series as well. The Sonics as a team were good at closing off the paint and making MJ shoot jumpers and he was just off shooting those last three games.

He was shorter and less athletic. Jordan could literally just jump over him for the clean look. They did shade him and close off the paint, and he didn't have the same quickness he did in his 20s, nor as much time spent in transition, so you could see the tail-off in his efficacy. Same same with the Knicks, same same with the Jazz. But man, he did put on a masterclass in screen use, guard post and the like.

[Djoker]

There is this infamous photo from Thinking Basketball that has been circulating quite a bit on here as well as on social media.



People post it to show how Jordan's 5-year peak isn't THAT good. The thing is... those 5-year stretches by Robinson, Shaq and Lebron are definitely not their peaks but simply their best ON-OFF stretches. Curry's 5-year peak is spot on but I don't know how Ben is getting above +12 ON court for 2015-19 Curry. I'm getting about +10.1... Might be filtering injured games or applying some kind of filter?!?

Anyways, I created a similar graph but the best 5-year stretches have to come within (at least arguable) peak years.



And here is the raw data:

Spoiler:

Player ON Net OFF Net ON Min OFF Min ON/48 OFF/48 ON-OFF/48
1989-1993 Jordan 615 -110 3787 616 7.8 -8.6 16.4
2012-2016 Lebron 684 -77 4372 796 7.5 -4.6 12.2
2015-2019 Curry 725 58 3442 1633 10.1 1.7 8.4
1999-2003 Shaq 447 -137 3248 516 6.6 -12.7 19.4
2001-2005 Duncan 392 -104 3198 657 5.9 -7.6 13.5
2021-2025 Jokic 68 -90 2350 603 1.4 -7.2 8.6
2019-2023 Giannis 333 -79 2129 1021 7.5 -3.7 11.2
2006-2010 Kobe Bryant 250 -49 3256 561 3.7 -4.2 7.9
2014-2018 Kevin Durant 492 27 2881 749 8.2 1.7 6.5

[eminence]

.

Hey Djoker, I was curious if you had Pippens '96 cumulative PO +/-. Wanted to add him to the list of +1000 full season guys since '94.

1. '17 Curry +1260
2. '16 Dray +1210
3. '96 MJ 1186
4. '25 SGA +1084
5. '15 Curry +1083
6. '16 Curry +1070
7. '17 Dray +1047
8. '15 Dray +1031

'96 Pippen +899 RS + ??? PO

[Djoker]

.

Hey Djoker, I was curious if you had Pippens '96 cumulative PO +/-. Wanted to add him to the list of +1000 full season guys since '94.

1. '17 Curry +1260
2. '16 Dray +1210
3. '96 MJ 1186
4. '25 SGA +1084
5. '15 Curry +1083
6. '16 Curry +1070
7. '17 Dray +1047
8. '15 Dray +1031

'96 Pippen +899 RS + ??? PO

Unfortunately I don't have Pippen data for the playoffs.

[eminence]

.

Hey Djoker, I was curious if you had Pippens '96 cumulative PO +/-. Wanted to add him to the list of +1000 full season guys since '94.

1. '17 Curry +1260
2. '16 Dray +1210
3. '96 MJ 1186
4. '25 SGA +1084
5. '15 Curry +1083
6. '16 Curry +1070
7. '17 Dray +1047
8. '15 Dray +1031

'96 Pippen +899 RS + ??? PO

Unfortunately I don't have Pippen data for the playoffs.

Alas, he’ll have to stay the unranked unofficial 9th member (MJ is unofficial too).

[homecourtloss]

Because we're talking about MJ and the playoffs...

Yea I watched this. It's interesting that Payton didn't do all that well guarding MJ at all. That was my impression watching the series as well. The Sonics as a team were good at closing off the paint and making MJ shoot jumpers and he was just off shooting those last three games.

Payton did a decent job defending him, especially in the post and a few others helped out in that regard, but it seemed to me like Jordan was still taking the shots that he wanted, i.e., rising up in the post or on the perimeter, even though they seemed a little bit hurried, and he seemed to lack the same type of conviction going into those shots. Mostly, it seemed like it was the Sonics and their good perimeter defense limiting anything easy. To be honest with you there were a lot of perimeter and away from the ball fouls, which I found quite true about a lot of of the 90s (and 80s), regardless of who was playing.

I tracked all the plays that got Jordan FTs and when you look at it, his scoring was boosted by a very, very generous whistle. It’s already meh shooting. Efficiency could have looked a lot a lot worse . The only game I didn’t track game five in which he only shot 5 FTs.

Game 1

[url]

Watch on YouTube

[/url]

25:00 video, six minutes left in the 2nd, Hawkins put hands on Jordan and it's called foul on floor.
43:00 video, 7:35 reach in foul on perimeter on floor
55:00 Under 2:00, foul, 2 FTs off of a back screen rim run, Bill Walton talks about a push off
57:10 under 2:00 foul at the basket, 2fts
59:00 flagrant foul on Frank Brickowski on Rodman, then two technicals, Jordan takes 2 FTs.
1:01.15, 1:13 left in the second quarter,  touch foul called, Jordan takes 2 FTs 
1:06 discussion about Seattle’s zone defense, according to Phil Jackson
2:02,.10, 1 minute left in the game, weak foul on a paint jumper, 2 FTs 

Game 2 

Watch on YouTube

31:40, 1:15 left in 1st quarter, bump out by three point line, sonics in penalty, 2 fts
34:20, 15 seconds left in 1st quarter, illegal defense, 1 FT
53:40, 4:30 left in 2nd qyarter, jordan makes baseline move, foul on floor, sonics over the limit, 2 FTs
1:18.40, 10 minutes left in 3rd, illegal defense, 1 ft 
1:20.20, 9 minutes left reach in foul on perimeter
1:22, 8:15 min left in third, post move towards basket grab, 2 fts
1:44, 10:30 left in 4th, Jordan with baseline line move, phantom foul, 2 fts
1:58.30, 3:58 left in the 4th, Jordan drive, looked like a good part of the ball by Kemp, 2 fts
2:05.58, 1:31 left in 4th, offensive rebound by Jordan, foul on Hawkins, 2 fts, hard to see as video cut out)
2:07.30, 30 seconds left in 4th, drive to basket, 2 fts

Game 3[

https://www.facebook.com/Michael.J0rdan/videos/1996-nba-finals-game-3-seattle-supersonics-vs-chicago-bulls/1668979053245025/

10:30, 5 minutes left in the first quarter, 15 foot fadeaway touch foul, 2fts
18:45, 10 minutes left in the second quarter, grabbing foul on Gary Payton, on the floor, no FTs 
30:30, 4:30 left in second quarter, drive to the basket, weak bump foul, 2 FTs 
31:50, 3:35 left in the second quarter, defensive rebound foul, sonics over the limit, two FTs
38:30, :50 left in the second quarter, long inbounds pass, bumped on the catch, 2fts
1:05.20, 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, 20 foot pull up touch phantom foul, 1ft
1:13.30, 5:50 left in 4th, touch foul out on the perimeter, sonics in the penalty, 2 FTs

Game 4

Watch on YouTube

10:26 perimeter touch foul on Pippen on Gary Payton

11:30, 5:00 left in first quarter Gary Payton touch foul on Jordan in the post away from the ball, 5 minutes left in the first quarter

13:38, 3:55 left in the first quarter Jordan attacked the basket from the post. Brickowski makes contact, but looks like he's going straight up and bump him, 2 free throws

32:26, 6:13 left in the second quarter, touch, foul on Gary Payton defending Jordan in the post away from the ball

33:51 under 5:50 in the quarter, offensive foul on Jordan looks like a push off, but not really much contact

41:46, under 24 seconds, absolute touch foul of minimal contact out on the perimeter

51:00, nine minutes left in the third-quarter, technical fell on Frank Bukowski after Dennis Rodman shenanigans, one free throw

53:20, 8:30+ left in the third quarter, technical foul on Detlef Schrempf, one free throw

1:02, 4:40 left in the third-quarter, Jordan gets an and-1 on a fast break, one free throw

1:05, 3:50 left in the third-quarter, reach in foul on the perimeter. Looks like all ball by David Wingate, two free throws.

1:09, 1:50 left in the third quarter, rtechnical foul on David winger , one free throw

1:09, 1:50 left in the third quarter, away from the ball foul in the post, two free throws

1:22, 8:30 left in the fourth quarter, touch, fell on the perimeter, called a pushing foul

1:23.36, 7:45left in the fourth, touch foul looks like a phantom foul in the post, an and-1, one free throw

1:29.2, 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter, Jordan gets an offensive rebound and there's a touch file called on Gary Payton, slight push in the back, 2 free throws

Game 6

Watch on YouTube

18:00, 8:00 left in 1st, drive and bump, 2fts 
25:45, 3:25 left in 1st, 20 ft fadeaway touch foul, 2fts
35:40, 11:00 left in 2nd qtr, drive to basket, looked like Jordan jumped into defender, 2fts 
59:30, 5 seconds left in 2nd, touch foul on perimeter and Sonics in penalty, 2fts
1:07.30, 8:08 left in third, touch foul on perimeter jumper, 2fts 
1:27.45, 10 minutes left in 4th, attacks basket, 2fts 

[Djoker]

1992 RAPM is here!

Read on Twitter

71 Bulls games tracked, 57-14 record.

In the remaining 11 unsampled games, MJ missed 1 of them which the Bulls lost by 15 points. And in the 10 games that he played in, the Bulls went 10-0 with a +180 point differential. So needless to say this Jordan season is undoubtedly historic. Might even clear the +1000 plus minus mark. He would need to go +211 when the team went +180. Definitely very doable.

[70sFan]

1992 RAPM is here!

Read on Twitter

71 Bulls games tracked, 57-14 record.

In the remaining 11 unsampled games, MJ missed 1 of them which the Bulls lost by 15 points. And in the 10 games that he played in, the Bulls went 10-0 with a +180 point differential. So needless to say this Jordan season is undoubtedly historic. Might even clear the +1000 plus minus mark. He would need to go +211 when the team went +180. Definitely very doable.

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

[DraymondGold]

1992 RAPM is here!

Read on Twitter

71 Bulls games tracked, 57-14 record.

In the remaining 11 unsampled games, MJ missed 1 of them which the Bulls lost by 15 points. And in the 10 games that he played in, the Bulls went 10-0 with a +180 point differential. So needless to say this Jordan season is undoubtedly historic. Might even clear the +1000 plus minus mark. He would need to go +211 when the team went +180. Definitely very doable.

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

Looks like in singular season Squared2020 RAPM, the top 10 seasons are:
-1992 Jordan +9.67 (63% over 2nd place)
-1988 Jordan +7.47 (13% over 2nd place)
-1990 Magic +7.34 (10% over 2nd place)
-1996 Jordan +6.92 (13% over 2nd place)
-1985 Magic +6.91 (10% over 2nd place)
-1990 Jordan +6.7 (8% over 3rd place)
-1988 Magic +6.62 (36% over 3rd place)
-1993 Jordan +6.54 (27% over 2nd place)
-1991 Jordan +6.40 (29% over 2nd place)
-1985 Kareem +6.30 (0% over 3rd place)
(Skipping 1970 and 1980 that have <25 games total; not seeing single season RAPM data for 1986, 1987, 1989, 1994, 1995 though I may be missing it)

So Jordan’s continuing to look GOAT level in his prime/peak. I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if 1992 looked a little less like an outlier as we get more data for other players — although like Djoker points out, the Bulls do quite well in the missing sample so who knows.

I think 1992’s definitely among his best regular seasons ever (and among the best regular seasons ever). I wouldn’t be too too surprised if it ends up looking better than 1991. I think what holds 1992 back is the playoffs. By 1992 playoffs and unlike 1991, I think Jordan lost a step at the rim, as seen in the hand tracked Jordan shooting data we have. His playoff plus minus in 92 playoffs is definitely lower, and while single season playoff data is definitely noisy, we also see a decline in the box score (including Thinking Basketball BPM which is the best box stat available). When we combine it with a slight loss of motor, and a slight decline in his rim pressure in shooting data (consistent with what we’d expect from natural aging), I think it’s reasonable to say 91 had the better playoffs and thus arguably the better full-season run.

But yeah, regular season only, 92 is GOAT level, and the data we have bears this out… even if some of it may be boosted by noise with wider uncertainty bars as shown in Squared’s post. Cool stuff from him as always

Among other players
-Horace Grant looks better than Pippen. Pippen looks like a fringe all star but not quite as valuable on defense as either. I’d expect some of this to change in larger sample data
-Robinson continues to look fantastic in plus minus data. Top tier impactor in the regular season
-Kevin Johnson looks like the clear 2nd most valuable player, in particular on offense. Maybe stealing some of the value that really should got to Barkley in these preliminary samples?
-Ewing continues to look respectable and consistent with his reputation, top 10 but not top tier, as in previous historic data
-Hakeem continues to look a bit underwhelming relative to reputation
-Stockton continues to look better than Karl Malone, although both are underwhelming in this sample
… although all these conclusions are preliminary, given the sample size.

[lessthanjake]

1992 RAPM is here!

Read on Twitter

71 Bulls games tracked, 57-14 record.

In the remaining 11 unsampled games, MJ missed 1 of them which the Bulls lost by 15 points. And in the 10 games that he played in, the Bulls went 10-0 with a +180 point differential. So needless to say this Jordan season is undoubtedly historic. Might even clear the +1000 plus minus mark. He would need to go +211 when the team went +180. Definitely very doable.

By my calculations, this means that the Bulls must have gone -98 in the sampled games with Jordan off the court (and -113 if we add in the unsampled full game without Jordan), and +789 in the sampled games in Jordan’s minutes.

Do have a list of the games that were sampled—or rather, more easily, a list of the games that weren’t sampled? If I had that info, I should be able to use that to calculate an on-off per 48 minutes, which I could potentially add to my Jordan on-off thread. I already have a 55-game sample for 1992 from Dipper, but this looks like it’s a bigger sample of games. I imagine between this and Dipper’s 1992 stuff, we may even have very close to every 1992 Jordan game tracked, but I don’t think we know Dipper’s data on a game-by-game level, so we can’t really add to Squared data any games he did that Squared didn’t.

[Djoker]

Looks like in singular season Squared2020 RAPM, the top 10 seasons are:
-1992 Jordan +9.67 (63% over 2nd place)
-1988 Jordan +7.47 (13% over 2nd place)
-1990 Magic +7.34 (10% over 2nd place)
-1996 Jordan +6.92 (13% over 2nd place)
-1985 Magic +6.91 (10% over 2nd place)
-1990 Jordan +6.7 (8% over 3rd place)
-1988 Magic +6.62 (36% over 3rd place)
-1993 Jordan +6.54 (27% over 2nd place)
-1991 Jordan +6.40 (29% over 2nd place)
-1985 Kareem +6.30 (0% over 3rd place)
(Skipping 1970 and 1980 that have <25 games total; not seeing single season RAPM data for 1986, 1987, 1989, 1994, 1995 though I may be missing it)

So Jordan’s continuing to look GOAT level in his prime/peak. I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if 1992 looked a little less like an outlier as we get more data for other players — although like Djoker points out, the Bulls do quite well in the missing sample so who knows.

I think 1992’s definitely among his best regular seasons ever (and among the best regular seasons ever). I wouldn’t be too too surprised if it ends up looking better than 1991. I think what holds 1992 back is the playoffs. By 1992 playoffs and unlike 1991, I think Jordan lost a step at the rim, as seen in the hand tracked Jordan shooting data we have. His playoff plus minus in 92 playoffs is definitely lower, and while single season playoff data is definitely noisy, we also see a decline in the box score (including Thinking Basketball BPM which is the best box stat available). When we combine it with a slight loss of motor, and a slight decline in his rim pressure in shooting data (consistent with what we’d expect from natural aging), I think it’s reasonable to say 91 had the better playoffs and thus arguably the better full-season run.

But yeah, regular season only, 92 is GOAT level, and the data we have bears this out… even if some of it may be boosted by noise with wider uncertainty bars as shown in Squared’s post. Cool stuff from him as always

Among other players
-Horace Grant looks better than Pippen. Pippen looks like a fringe all star but not quite as valuable on defense as either. I’d expect some of this to change in larger sample data
-Robinson continues to look fantastic in plus minus data. Top tier impactor in the regular season
-Kevin Johnson looks like the clear 2nd most valuable player, in particular on offense. Maybe stealing some of the value that really should got to Barkley in these preliminary samples?
-Ewing continues to look respectable and consistent with his reputation, top 10 but not top tier, as in previous historic data
-Hakeem continues to look a bit underwhelming relative to reputation
-Stockton continues to look better than Karl Malone, although both are underwhelming in this sample
… although all these conclusions are preliminary, given the sample size.

Squared2020 hasn't gotten to the 1989, 1994 and 1995 seasons yet. And he hasn't done RAPM for 1986 and 1987 as far as I know, maybe because the number of games sampled is small.

By my calculations, this means that the Bulls must have gone -98 in the sampled games with Jordan off the court (and -113 if we add in the unsampled full game without Jordan), and +789 in the sampled games in Jordan’s minutes.

Do have a list of the games that were sampled—or rather, more easily, a list of the games that weren’t sampled? If I had that info, I should be able to use that to calculate an on-off per 48 minutes, which I could potentially add to my Jordan on-off thread. I already have a 55-game sample for 1992 from Dipper, but this looks like it’s a bigger sample of games. I imagine between this and Dipper’s 1992 stuff, we may even have very close to every 1992 Jordan game tracked, but I don’t think we know Dipper’s data on a game-by-game level, so we can’t really add to Squared data any games he did that Squared didn’t.

+789 with and -98 without is correct indeed.

Here are the 11 games not sampled. The game MJ missed is April 14th @CLE. I recall that game used to be up on YT so it should resurface. EDIT: That's the only game Dipper13 tracked that Squared2020 didn't.



If my calculations are correct, the per 48 numbers are +13.8 ON -6.7 OFF +20.5 ON-OFF.

[lessthanjake]

Looks like in singular season Squared2020 RAPM, the top 10 seasons are:
-1992 Jordan +9.67 (63% over 2nd place)
-1988 Jordan +7.47 (13% over 2nd place)
-1990 Magic +7.34 (10% over 2nd place)
-1996 Jordan +6.92 (13% over 2nd place)
-1985 Magic +6.91 (10% over 2nd place)
-1990 Jordan +6.7 (8% over 3rd place)
-1988 Magic +6.62 (36% over 3rd place)
-1993 Jordan +6.54 (27% over 2nd place)
-1991 Jordan +6.40 (29% over 2nd place)
-1985 Kareem +6.30 (0% over 3rd place)
(Skipping 1970 and 1980 that have <25 games total; not seeing single season RAPM data for 1986, 1987, 1989, 1994, 1995 though I may be missing it)

So Jordan’s continuing to look GOAT level in his prime/peak. I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if 1992 looked a little less like an outlier as we get more data for other players — although like Djoker points out, the Bulls do quite well in the missing sample so who knows.

I think 1992’s definitely among his best regular seasons ever (and among the best regular seasons ever). I wouldn’t be too too surprised if it ends up looking better than 1991. I think what holds 1992 back is the playoffs. By 1992 playoffs and unlike 1991, I think Jordan lost a step at the rim, as seen in the hand tracked Jordan shooting data we have. His playoff plus minus in 92 playoffs is definitely lower, and while single season playoff data is definitely noisy, we also see a decline in the box score (including Thinking Basketball BPM which is the best box stat available). When we combine it with a slight loss of motor, and a slight decline in his rim pressure in shooting data (consistent with what we’d expect from natural aging), I think it’s reasonable to say 91 had the better playoffs and thus arguably the better full-season run.

But yeah, regular season only, 92 is GOAT level, and the data we have bears this out… even if some of it may be boosted by noise with wider uncertainty bars as shown in Squared’s post. Cool stuff from him as always

Among other players
-Horace Grant looks better than Pippen. Pippen looks like a fringe all star but not quite as valuable on defense as either. I’d expect some of this to change in larger sample data
-Robinson continues to look fantastic in plus minus data. Top tier impactor in the regular season
-Kevin Johnson looks like the clear 2nd most valuable player, in particular on offense. Maybe stealing some of the value that really should got to Barkley in these preliminary samples?
-Ewing continues to look respectable and consistent with his reputation, top 10 but not top tier, as in previous historic data
-Hakeem continues to look a bit underwhelming relative to reputation
-Stockton continues to look better than Karl Malone, although both are underwhelming in this sample
… although all these conclusions are preliminary, given the sample size.

Squared2020 hasn't gotten to the 1989, 1994 and 1995 seasons yet. And he hasn't done RAPM for 1986 and 1987 as far as I know, maybe because the number of games sampled is small.

By my calculations, this means that the Bulls must have gone -98 in the sampled games with Jordan off the court (and -113 if we add in the unsampled full game without Jordan), and +789 in the sampled games in Jordan’s minutes.

Do have a list of the games that were sampled—or rather, more easily, a list of the games that weren’t sampled? If I had that info, I should be able to use that to calculate an on-off per 48 minutes, which I could potentially add to my Jordan on-off thread. I already have a 55-game sample for 1992 from Dipper, but this looks like it’s a bigger sample of games. I imagine between this and Dipper’s 1992 stuff, we may even have very close to every 1992 Jordan game tracked, but I don’t think we know Dipper’s data on a game-by-game level, so we can’t really add to Squared data any games he did that Squared didn’t.

+789 with and -98 without is correct indeed.

Here are the 11 games not sampled. The game MJ missed is April 14th @CLE. I recall that game used to be up on YT so it should resurface. EDIT: That's the only game Dipper13 tracked that Squared2020 didn't.



If my calculations are correct, the per 48 numbers are +13.8 ON -6.7 OFF +20.5 ON-OFF.

It looks like Jordan played 363 minutes in the unsampled games, and the Bulls had 528 total minutes in those unsampled games. Jordan played 3164 minutes that season and the Bulls played 3966 total minutes. Which means Jordan played 2801 minutes in the sampled games, and there were 637 minutes without Jordan in the sampled games. Since they went +789 in Jordan’s 2801 minutes in the sampled games and -98 in the 637 minutes without Jordan, that means that they went +13.52 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s minutes, and -7.38 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s off minutes. So that should be a +20.90 on-off per 48 minutes.

And the full-sample number is most likely even better, given that (1) the Bulls did extremely well in the unsampled games that Jordan played in; and (2) the sample doesn’t include a game without Jordan where they lost by 15 points. Given the results of the unsampled games, my best guess is that the full-sample numbers would probably be around +15 ON per 48, -7 OFF per 48, and +22 on-off per 48, though obviously that’s just an educated guess.

The numbers I got differ from yours very slightly. Before I eventually add it to my Jordan on-off compilation thread, can you confirm that you don’t think I’ve made a mistake with the above numbers?

[Djoker]

Looks like in singular season Squared2020 RAPM, the top 10 seasons are:
-1992 Jordan +9.67 (63% over 2nd place)
-1988 Jordan +7.47 (13% over 2nd place)
-1990 Magic +7.34 (10% over 2nd place)
-1996 Jordan +6.92 (13% over 2nd place)
-1985 Magic +6.91 (10% over 2nd place)
-1990 Jordan +6.7 (8% over 3rd place)
-1988 Magic +6.62 (36% over 3rd place)
-1993 Jordan +6.54 (27% over 2nd place)
-1991 Jordan +6.40 (29% over 2nd place)
-1985 Kareem +6.30 (0% over 3rd place)
(Skipping 1970 and 1980 that have <25 games total; not seeing single season RAPM data for 1986, 1987, 1989, 1994, 1995 though I may be missing it)

So Jordan’s continuing to look GOAT level in his prime/peak. I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if 1992 looked a little less like an outlier as we get more data for other players — although like Djoker points out, the Bulls do quite well in the missing sample so who knows.

I think 1992’s definitely among his best regular seasons ever (and among the best regular seasons ever). I wouldn’t be too too surprised if it ends up looking better than 1991. I think what holds 1992 back is the playoffs. By 1992 playoffs and unlike 1991, I think Jordan lost a step at the rim, as seen in the hand tracked Jordan shooting data we have. His playoff plus minus in 92 playoffs is definitely lower, and while single season playoff data is definitely noisy, we also see a decline in the box score (including Thinking Basketball BPM which is the best box stat available). When we combine it with a slight loss of motor, and a slight decline in his rim pressure in shooting data (consistent with what we’d expect from natural aging), I think it’s reasonable to say 91 had the better playoffs and thus arguably the better full-season run.

But yeah, regular season only, 92 is GOAT level, and the data we have bears this out… even if some of it may be boosted by noise with wider uncertainty bars as shown in Squared’s post. Cool stuff from him as always

Among other players
-Horace Grant looks better than Pippen. Pippen looks like a fringe all star but not quite as valuable on defense as either. I’d expect some of this to change in larger sample data
-Robinson continues to look fantastic in plus minus data. Top tier impactor in the regular season
-Kevin Johnson looks like the clear 2nd most valuable player, in particular on offense. Maybe stealing some of the value that really should got to Barkley in these preliminary samples?
-Ewing continues to look respectable and consistent with his reputation, top 10 but not top tier, as in previous historic data
-Hakeem continues to look a bit underwhelming relative to reputation
-Stockton continues to look better than Karl Malone, although both are underwhelming in this sample
… although all these conclusions are preliminary, given the sample size.

Squared2020 hasn't gotten to the 1989, 1994 and 1995 seasons yet. And he hasn't done RAPM for 1986 and 1987 as far as I know, maybe because the number of games sampled is small.

By my calculations, this means that the Bulls must have gone -98 in the sampled games with Jordan off the court (and -113 if we add in the unsampled full game without Jordan), and +789 in the sampled games in Jordan’s minutes.

Do have a list of the games that were sampled—or rather, more easily, a list of the games that weren’t sampled? If I had that info, I should be able to use that to calculate an on-off per 48 minutes, which I could potentially add to my Jordan on-off thread. I already have a 55-game sample for 1992 from Dipper, but this looks like it’s a bigger sample of games. I imagine between this and Dipper’s 1992 stuff, we may even have very close to every 1992 Jordan game tracked, but I don’t think we know Dipper’s data on a game-by-game level, so we can’t really add to Squared data any games he did that Squared didn’t.

+789 with and -98 without is correct indeed.

Here are the 11 games not sampled. The game MJ missed is April 14th @CLE. I recall that game used to be up on YT so it should resurface. EDIT: That's the only game Dipper13 tracked that Squared2020 didn't.



If my calculations are correct, the per 48 numbers are +13.8 ON -6.7 OFF +20.5 ON-OFF.

It looks like Jordan played 363 minutes in the unsampled games, and the Bulls had 528 total minutes in those unsampled games. Jordan played 3164 minutes that season and the Bulls played 3966 total minutes. Which means Jordan played 2801 minutes in the sampled games, and there were 637 minutes without Jordan in the sampled games. Since they went +789 in Jordan’s 2801 minutes in the sampled games and -98 in the 637 minutes without Jordan, that means that they went +13.52 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s minutes, and -7.38 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s off minutes. So that should be a +20.90 on-off per 48 minutes.

And the full-sample number is most likely even better, given that (1) the Bulls did extremely well in the unsampled games that Jordan played in; and (2) the sample doesn’t include a game without Jordan where they lost by 15 points. Given the results of the unsampled games, my best guess is that the full-sample numbers would probably be around +15 ON per 48, -7 OFF per 48, and +22 on-off per 48, though obviously that’s just an educated guess.

The numbers I got differ from yours very slightly. Before I eventually add it to my Jordan on-off compilation thread, can you confirm that you don’t think I’ve made a mistake with the above numbers?

MJ played 3102 minutes that season in all 80 games, not 3164 minutes. I think you took Pippen's minutes by accident!

[lessthanjake]

Squared2020 hasn't gotten to the 1989, 1994 and 1995 seasons yet. And he hasn't done RAPM for 1986 and 1987 as far as I know, maybe because the number of games sampled is small.



+789 with and -98 without is correct indeed.

Here are the 11 games not sampled. The game MJ missed is April 14th @CLE. I recall that game used to be up on YT so it should resurface. EDIT: That's the only game Dipper13 tracked that Squared2020 didn't.



If my calculations are correct, the per 48 numbers are +13.8 ON -6.7 OFF +20.5 ON-OFF.

It looks like Jordan played 363 minutes in the unsampled games, and the Bulls had 528 total minutes in those unsampled games. Jordan played 3164 minutes that season and the Bulls played 3966 total minutes. Which means Jordan played 2801 minutes in the sampled games, and there were 637 minutes without Jordan in the sampled games. Since they went +789 in Jordan’s 2801 minutes in the sampled games and -98 in the 637 minutes without Jordan, that means that they went +13.52 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s minutes, and -7.38 per 48 minutes in Jordan’s off minutes. So that should be a +20.90 on-off per 48 minutes.

And the full-sample number is most likely even better, given that (1) the Bulls did extremely well in the unsampled games that Jordan played in; and (2) the sample doesn’t include a game without Jordan where they lost by 15 points. Given the results of the unsampled games, my best guess is that the full-sample numbers would probably be around +15 ON per 48, -7 OFF per 48, and +22 on-off per 48, though obviously that’s just an educated guess.

The numbers I got differ from yours very slightly. Before I eventually add it to my Jordan on-off compilation thread, can you confirm that you don’t think I’ve made a mistake with the above numbers?

MJ played 3102 minutes that season in all 80 games, not 3164 minutes. I think you took Pippen's minutes by accident!

Lol, yeah I definitely did exactly that.

Okay, so that means Jordan played 2739 minutes in the sampled games, and there were 699 minutes without Jordan in the sampled games. So they went +789 in Jordan’s 2739 minutes in the sampled games and -98 in the 699 minutes without Jordan. Which comes out to +13.83 ON per 48 minutes, -6.73 OFF per 48 minutes, and +20.56 on-off per 48 minutes. Which is consistent with what you listed before. I’ll aim to add this to my Jordan on-off compilation thread, having it replace the smaller Dipper sample for that regular season.

[migya]

These analyses are certainly significant to the analysis conversations here. Definitely backs up what many believe with Jordan.

[Squared2020]

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

Going through all these seasons, watching the games in entirety, and applying the knowledge I've learned from ~15 years in the league: Jordan's best year is BY FAR 1992. There may be statistical quirks that suggest otherwise, but just the gravity, the asserted dominance on the court, and the ability to trust his teammates even more to leverage that gravity is by far the best of his career (between 1985 and 1996). He also became a more measured defender than in previous seasons.

This is the primary reason that Horace Grant was more dominant in this sample compared to Scottie Pippen. There's several games where the commentators even acknowledge Grant was having a better year (1992) than Pippen. Pippen's not going to catch Horace if more data is added -- unless there are games where Horace is -20 and Pippen is +20.

[Caneman786]

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

Going through all these seasons, watching the games in entirety, and applying the knowledge I've learned from ~15 years in the league: Jordan's best year is BY FAR 1992. There may be statistical quirks that suggest otherwise, but just the gravity, the asserted dominance on the court, and the ability to trust his teammates even more to leverage that gravity is by far the best of his career (between 1985 and 1996). He also became a more measured defender than in previous seasons.

This is the primary reason that Horace Grant was more dominant in this sample compared to Scottie Pippen. There's several games where the commentators even acknowledge Grant was having a better year (1992) than Pippen. Pippen's not going to catch Horace if more data is added -- unless there are games where Horace is -20 and Pippen is +20.

Do you mean the regular season or also including the playoffs?

And what would you say is Jordan's best playoffs?

[70sFan]

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

Going through all these seasons, watching the games in entirety, and applying the knowledge I've learned from ~15 years in the league: Jordan's best year is BY FAR 1992. There may be statistical quirks that suggest otherwise, but just the gravity, the asserted dominance on the court, and the ability to trust his teammates even more to leverage that gravity is by far the best of his career (between 1985 and 1996). He also became a more measured defender than in previous seasons.

This is the primary reason that Horace Grant was more dominant in this sample compared to Scottie Pippen. There's several games where the commentators even acknowledge Grant was having a better year (1992) than Pippen. Pippen's not going to catch Horace if more data is added -- unless there are games where Horace is -20 and Pippen is +20.

It does look that at least in the RS, 1992 is Jordan's peak with the new data available.

[Djoker]

Wow, is 1992 Jordan underrated compared to his earlier seasons?

Going through all these seasons, watching the games in entirety, and applying the knowledge I've learned from ~15 years in the league: Jordan's best year is BY FAR 1992. There may be statistical quirks that suggest otherwise, but just the gravity, the asserted dominance on the court, and the ability to trust his teammates even more to leverage that gravity is by far the best of his career (between 1985 and 1996). He also became a more measured defender than in previous seasons.

This is the primary reason that Horace Grant was more dominant in this sample compared to Scottie Pippen. There's several games where the commentators even acknowledge Grant was having a better year (1992) than Pippen. Pippen's not going to catch Horace if more data is added -- unless there are games where Horace is -20 and Pippen is +20.

Jordan's impact data in 1992 looks pretty ridiculous. And your eye test is very valuable having watched so many games. And honestly even more so than just 1992, I'm just impressed with Jordan's consecutive seasons of purely insane impact data. 1988, 1990 and 1991 are also crazy dominant. I suspect his 3-year, 5-year stretches etc. in terms of ON-OFF might be the best ever. And it's kind of crazy because in 1988 he's floor raising a super weak roster to competitive levels and then transitions to a season like 1992 where he's ceiling raising to ridiculous GOAT-level team heights. So you have the best of both worlds within the same multiyear stretch.

The Horace > Pippen thing I do find surprising. I've always been under the impression that 1992 was one of, if not Pippen's best season along with the 1994-1996 stretch.