JohnnyKILLroy wrote:If I remember correctly it was several things all leading up to the draft. This is off the dome so if I forgot something please be lenient.
-The drag racing
-Lying about it to the cops
-His coaches came and were saying very negative stuff about him leading up to the draft
-He couldn’t finish his draft workout because he was fat and out of shape
All of this right before the biggest job interviews of his life.
Most of this is pretty easily explained by an unprecedentedly negative outcome due to the car crash, and people overreacting to something that has very little chance to have negative future behavioral consequences.
The reality is that Carter looked like a top 3 talent, was a top 3 talent, and we passed on him to get a mediocre lineman. If you want to say in the moment that makes sense because of the above, it's not for me to convince you to have a different risk tolerance. I thought the concerns were largely due to a miscategorization of risk.
Impossible to say whether those concerns were due to miscategorization or simply concerns that didn't materialize because you just never know what will or won't happen in the future. Regardless of whether this was a true human psychological misinformation arbitrage opportunity or not, the reality is that Jalen Carter was by far the better selection and overwhelmingly the more talented player, and has worked out amazingly, and we'd have been dramatically better off having selected him.
I thought that was obvious at the time, but I'm not a football expert, and I could just as easily be correct due to dumb luck or happenstance, but I felt convicted on the idea that people were miscategorizing this risk, and wish we had taken him.