The Clippers Thread: Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, James Harden - 2025-26 Season

[Caneman786]

Ring season baby!

[jalengreen]

Let's plant those trees

[eminence]

Lots of talent, no faith in Kawhi to stay healthy (and unsuspended) to actually get them anywhere.

Long live the Zubac Clippers.

Wonder if this will be Paul's last season.

[Caneman786]

Demon Kawhi

Read on Twitter

You all need to give it up with the Kawhi stuff cuz it ain't happening.

[Caneman786]

UNDERSTANDING THE CLIPPERS REGULAR SEASON
A TALE OF THREE SEASONS

Last season, the Clippers played three seasons. One season with no Kawhi, one season with Kawhi working his way up to speed, and one season with Kawhi fully healthy

Kawhi's first game back was on January 2, 2025. And Kawhi was taken off his minutes restriction on February 28, 2025. So I'll use those as the markings.

Let's see what changed throughout the year.

THE FIRST SEASON: OCT. 23, 2024 to JAN. 01, 2025

The Clippers played 33 games in this span.

19 wins, 14 losses (47-win pace)

Offensive Rating 110.0 (23rd in the league)
Defensive Rating 108.4 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +1.6 (13th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Terance Mann for the first 11 games, then Kris Dunn for the next 22 games
Small Forward: Norman Powell
Power Forward: Derrick Jones Jr.
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr.
Guard: Terance Mann / Kris Dunn
Forward: Amir Coffey
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Center Kai Jones, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

THE SECOND SEASON: JAN. 02, 2025 to FEB. 27, 2025

The Clippers played 25 games in this span.

13 wins, 12 losses (43-win pace)

Offensive Rating 113.3 (17th in the league)
Defensive Rating 109.8 (3rd in the league)

Net Rating +3.6 (9th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Amir Coffey when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr., then Ben Simmons
Guard: Terance Mann, then Bogdan Bogdanovic
Forward: Amir Coffey when starters not injured
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

Kawhi Leonard overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 22.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.9 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 54.5% True Shooting

+10.5 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. -0.6 net rating with him off the court.
+11.0 on-off

Some of the net rating dip with Kawhi off the court has to do with a Norman Powell injury that took him out for parts of the period.

THE THIRD SEASON: FEB 28, 2025 to APR. 13, 2025

The Clippers played 24 games in this span.

18 wins, 6 losses (62-win pace)

Offensive Rating 121.3 (4th in the league)
Defensive Rating 110.2 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +11.1 (2nd in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Guard: Ben Simmons
Forward: Amir Coffey
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward: Nicolas Batum when starters not injured
Center: Drew Eubanks

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Guard Patty Mills, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Cam Christie etc.

Kawhi Leonard's overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 26.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 61.6% True Shooting

+13.6 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. +7.0 net rating with him off the court.
+6.6 on-off

This team was maxing out, with Kawhi having fully shaken the rust off (evident by the true shooting and turnover numbers, as well as the increased volume). Kawhi had successfully supercharged the Clippers offense, while the defense, led by Ivica Zubac, had been excellent the whole season.

Norman Powell rejoined the team part of the way through this season.

Overall, not only was the whole team revamped throughout the season, upgrading at almost every position, we started to see what this Clippers team could be.

Summary of changes throughout the Clippers season:

Starting shooting guard: Terance Mann -> Kris Dunn
Starting power forward: Derrick Jones Jr. -> Kawhi Leonard

Bogdan Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons were added midway through the season for real bench guard depth.

THE PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND LOSS TO THE DENVER NUGGETS

They went on to play the Nuggets, who had the best player in the world, in the first round and lost in a grueling first-round series that went to 7 games, where the Clippers outscored the Nuggets by an average of +0.6 points per game and had an incredible game-winning dunk by Aaron Gordon in game 4. Russell Westbrook shot 41.9% from 3 in that series on 4.4 attempts per game.

That Nuggets team went on to lose in 7 games to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who beat them by +9.1 points per game. However, Thunder players called the series the hardest one they had, with the team having gone down 2-1.

[70sFan]

Are we ready for Zubac's first MVP this year?

[Caneman786]

THE OFFSEASON

The Clippers have made many changes that will bolster them further from the +11.1 net rating they had in the last part of the regular season.

Added a Power Forward -> John Collins, who had an EPM of +0.9 (a solid starter), and is someone who will be able to fight with the Aaron Gordons of the world.

Moved Kawhi Leonard from the Power Forward position to the Small Forward position, as Norman Powell went to the Miami Heat. This will unlock Kawhi more defensively and turns the team from somewhat undersized to a big team all the way through.

Moved Kris Dunn to the bench for Bradley Beal. Essentially, turning Norman Powell into Bradley Beal. This is a lateral to slight negative move, but the bonus of not having a 6' 3" guard play the 3rd position small forward will outweigh that.

Added a real backup center: Brook Lopez (EPM of +0.7), who started 80 games last season for the Milwaukee Bucks, a legitimate playoffs team. This is an upgrade compared to picking a poison between the undersized Nicolas Batum and third-string players like Drew Eubanks and Mo Bamba
Backup point guard Chris Paul (EPM of +0.7) who started 82 games last season for the San Antonio Spurs, where he had a positive plus minus throughout the season.

Amir Coffey, who played the 6th most minutes of the team last season, has left for the Milwaukee Bucks. Last season he had an on-court net rating of -7.3 and an on-off of -12.1. His EPM was -2.5. This season he wouldn't get minutes on the team.

That's because this Clippers team is deep. Because of that, I have them with a potential +10 net rating for the season (this might be too low), and winning 60–65 games. Kawhi Leonard unlocks the monster defense of the team offensively. And he appears to be fully back to form, having had his first healthy offseason in many years:

Read on Twitter

When prime Kawhi back, this team can hang with the best teams in the league: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets.

Looking forward to the season.

[Caneman786]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

[Caneman786]

James Harden career points in the regular season. Milestones to watch for this season!

As of right now, before the season starts, he has 27,687 career points.

Ahead of him on the leaderboards:

29,580 PTS - Moses Malone (combined ABA and NBA point totals, where he ranks #10).
28,596 PTS - Shaquille O'Neal - Rank #9 NBA - Rank #11 inc. ABA.
28,289 PTS - Carmelo Anthony - Rank #10 NBA - Rank #12 inc. ABA.
27,687 PTS - James Harden - Rank #11 NBA - Rank #13 inc. ABA.

602 points behind Carmelo.
909 points behind O'Neal.
1,893 points behind Moses.

Being conservative, I will assume James will play 70 games this season and average 19 points per game (last season he averaged 23, and the season before, he averaged 16. James turned 36 in August). That gives a season total points of 1,330 points. However, he could definitely outperform this, since he had 1,802 points last season. He also could underperform this, as he had 1,192 and 1,216 points the previous two seasons.

Assuming this is true, we can expect to see him pass Carmelo for the #10 spot on the NBA list (and #12 on the combined list) in ~32 games. This will happen around the New Year.

We can then expect him to pass Shaquille O'Neal for the #9 spot on the NBA list (and #11 on the combined list) in ~48 games. That would be sometime in February.

The next man after that, Moses Malone, seems like a long shot this season, but passing him would not be officially recognized by the NBA. Julius Erving is next after that (by 500 points), followed by Kevin Durant, who is active, and it is tough to see that happening soon.

The next realistic recognized leaderboard change for James would be rising to #8 on the NBA list to pass Wilt Chamberlain, which seems like it would happen in the 2028 season at the earliest, when Harden is 38 years old. It will not be easy, but I believe Harden will be able to make it there.

[f4p]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

[Caneman786]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

After Kawhi rejoined the team, the Clippers scored and had a net rating on par with a team in the mid 60 wins over a very long stretch of the season.

My prediction is optimistic, in regards to health, but saying there's no chance of it happening is unreasonable. We've seen what the team looks like, then they got better.

Assuming health, in fact, 55 wins is not the bottom. It should even be inevitable. 55 wins translates to a +5.8 net rating based on the Pythagorean Win formula. Is that the cap or maximum? I disagree. Even without Kawhi they could get to that mark, easily.

The chance is way higher that the Clippers will be above that than below it, especially with their added depth.

In fact, I can see the possibility of them being over +10. That is above 63 wins. They had a considerable stretch of +11 last season, perfectly coinciding with Kawhi being off the minutes restriction. And he still missed games in that time. Now with added depth, they've bolstered further from that position. I'm not sure how to factor in strength of schedule easily, it seems like it would be difficult to do, but I don't see it dropping that below, say, +9 (which is 61.6 wins).

[f4p]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

After Kawhi rejoined the team, the Clippers scored and had a net rating on par with a team in the mid 60 wins over a very long stretch of the season.

My prediction is optimistic, in regards to health, but saying there's no chance of it happening is unreasonable. We've seen what the team looks like, then they got better.

Assuming health, in fact, 55 wins is not the bottom. It should even be inevitable. 55 wins translates to a +5.8 net rating based on the Pythagorean Win formula. Is that the cap or maximum? I disagree. Even without Kawhi they could get to that mark, easily.

The chance is way higher that the Clippers will be above that than below it, especially with their added depth.

In fact, I can see the possibility of them being over +10. That is above 63 wins. They had a considerable stretch of +11 last season, perfectly coinciding with Kawhi being off the minutes restriction. And he still missed games in that time. Now with added depth, they've bolstered further from that position. I'm not sure how to factor in strength of schedule easily, it seems like it would be difficult to do, but I don't see it dropping that below, say, +9 (which is 61.6 wins).

the 2015 atlanta hawks started the season 40-8, a very long stretch of games, and then finished about 0.500 over the rest of the season. the 2014 pacers were 46-13 at one point and then finished 10-13. that miami heat team that started 11-30 won 13 games in a row. teams can play over their heads for fairly long stretches, but +10 is an elite net rating in nba history. very few teams ever have reached it. and they've mostly been young and deep teams that played all out in the regular season and had all-stars and secret impact all-stars on the roster and didn't need to rest for the playoffs. kawhi is older and will be lucky to play 3/4 of the season. harden is 36 and probably wasn't even all-star caliber last year, much less this year. and the rest of the roster is good depth and "better impact than they look" from some guys. but that maybe gets you a nice +7 season if everything goes well. +10 is an all-time team and there's a reason vegas has the clippers at 48.5 wins and like +3000 title odds. i don't even mean this sarcastically, if you think they are going to win 63, you should bet a bunch of money on their over.