The Clippers Thread: Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, James Harden - 2025-26 Season

[Caneman786]

Ring season baby!

[jalengreen]

Let's plant those trees

[eminence]

Lots of talent, no faith in Kawhi to stay healthy (and unsuspended) to actually get them anywhere.

Long live the Zubac Clippers.

Wonder if this will be Paul's last season.

[Caneman786]

Demon Kawhi

Read on Twitter

You all need to give it up with the Kawhi stuff cuz it ain't happening.

[Caneman786]

UNDERSTANDING THE CLIPPERS REGULAR SEASON
A TALE OF THREE SEASONS

Last season, the Clippers played three seasons. One season with no Kawhi, one season with Kawhi working his way up to speed, and one season with Kawhi fully healthy

Kawhi's first game back was on January 2, 2025. And Kawhi was taken off his minutes restriction on February 28, 2025. So I'll use those as the markings.

Let's see what changed throughout the year.

THE FIRST SEASON: OCT. 23, 2024 to JAN. 01, 2025

The Clippers played 33 games in this span.

19 wins, 14 losses (47-win pace)

Offensive Rating 110.0 (23rd in the league)
Defensive Rating 108.4 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +1.6 (13th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Terance Mann for the first 11 games, then Kris Dunn for the next 22 games
Small Forward: Norman Powell
Power Forward: Derrick Jones Jr.
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr.
Guard: Terance Mann / Kris Dunn
Forward: Amir Coffey
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Center Kai Jones, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

THE SECOND SEASON: JAN. 02, 2025 to FEB. 27, 2025

The Clippers played 25 games in this span.

13 wins, 12 losses (43-win pace)

Offensive Rating 113.3 (17th in the league)
Defensive Rating 109.8 (3rd in the league)

Net Rating +3.6 (9th in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Amir Coffey when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Kevin Porter Jr., then Ben Simmons
Guard: Terance Mann, then Bogdan Bogdanovic
Forward: Amir Coffey when starters not injured
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward / Center: Nicolas Batum

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Center Mo Bamba, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Bones Hyland etc.

Kawhi Leonard overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 22.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.9 turnovers, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 54.5% True Shooting

+10.5 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. -0.6 net rating with him off the court.
+11.0 on-off

Some of the net rating dip with Kawhi off the court has to do with a Norman Powell injury that took him out for parts of the period.

THE THIRD SEASON: FEB 28, 2025 to APR. 13, 2025

The Clippers played 24 games in this span.

18 wins, 6 losses (62-win pace)

Offensive Rating 121.3 (4th in the league)
Defensive Rating 110.2 (5th in the league)

Net Rating +11.1 (2nd in the league)

Lineup:

Starters:
Point Guard: James Harden
Shooting Guard: Kris Dunn
Small Forward: Norman Powell, Derrick Jones Jr. when Powell was injured
Power Forward: Kawhi Leonard, Nicolas Batum when Leonard was out
Center: Ivica Zubac

Bench:
Guard: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Guard: Ben Simmons
Forward: Amir Coffey
Forward: Derrick Jones Jr. when starters not injured
Power Forward: Nicolas Batum when starters not injured
Center: Drew Eubanks

Third string: Forward Jordan Miller, Guard Patty Mills, Forward Kobe Brown, Guard Cam Christie etc.

Kawhi Leonard's overview

Statline per 75 possessions: 26.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 61.6% True Shooting

+13.6 net rating per 100 possessions with Kawhi Leonard on the court. +7.0 net rating with him off the court.
+6.6 on-off

This team was maxing out, with Kawhi having fully shaken the rust off (evident by the true shooting and turnover numbers, as well as the increased volume). Kawhi had successfully supercharged the Clippers offense, while the defense, led by Ivica Zubac, had been excellent the whole season.

Norman Powell rejoined the team part of the way through this season.

Overall, not only was the whole team revamped throughout the season, upgrading at almost every position, we started to see what this Clippers team could be.

Summary of changes throughout the Clippers season:

Starting shooting guard: Terance Mann -> Kris Dunn
Starting power forward: Derrick Jones Jr. -> Kawhi Leonard

Bogdan Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons were added midway through the season for real bench guard depth.

THE PLAYOFFS: FIRST ROUND LOSS TO THE DENVER NUGGETS

They went on to play the Nuggets, who had the best player in the world, in the first round and lost in a grueling first-round series that went to 7 games, where the Clippers outscored the Nuggets by an average of +0.6 points per game and had an incredible game-winning dunk by Aaron Gordon in game 4. Russell Westbrook shot 41.9% from 3 in that series on 4.4 attempts per game.

That Nuggets team went on to lose in 7 games to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who beat them by +9.1 points per game. However, Thunder players called the series the hardest one they had, with the team having gone down 2-1.

[70sFan]

Are we ready for Zubac's first MVP this year?

[Caneman786]

THE OFFSEASON

The Clippers have made many changes that will bolster them further from the +11.1 net rating they had in the last part of the regular season.

Added a Power Forward -> John Collins, who had an EPM of +0.9 (a solid starter), and is someone who will be able to fight with the Aaron Gordons of the world.

Moved Kawhi Leonard from the Power Forward position to the Small Forward position, as Norman Powell went to the Miami Heat. This will unlock Kawhi more defensively and turns the team from somewhat undersized to a big team all the way through.

Moved Kris Dunn to the bench for Bradley Beal. Essentially, turning Norman Powell into Bradley Beal. This is a lateral to slight negative move, but the bonus of not having a 6' 3" guard play the 3rd position small forward will outweigh that.

Added a real backup center: Brook Lopez (EPM of +0.7), who started 80 games last season for the Milwaukee Bucks, a legitimate playoffs team. This is an upgrade compared to picking a poison between the undersized Nicolas Batum and third-string players like Drew Eubanks and Mo Bamba
Backup point guard Chris Paul (EPM of +0.7) who started 82 games last season for the San Antonio Spurs, where he had a positive plus minus throughout the season.

Amir Coffey, who played the 6th most minutes of the team last season, has left for the Milwaukee Bucks. Last season he had an on-court net rating of -7.3 and an on-off of -12.1. His EPM was -2.5. This season he wouldn't get minutes on the team.

That's because this Clippers team is deep. Because of that, I have them with a potential +10 net rating for the season (this might be too low), and winning 60–65 games. Kawhi Leonard unlocks the monster defense of the team offensively. And he appears to be fully back to form, having had his first healthy offseason in many years:

Read on Twitter

When prime Kawhi back, this team can hang with the best teams in the league: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets.

Looking forward to the season.

[Caneman786]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

[Caneman786]

James Harden career points in the regular season. Milestones to watch for this season!

As of right now, before the season starts, he has 27,687 career points.

Ahead of him on the leaderboards:

29,580 PTS - Moses Malone (combined ABA and NBA point totals, where he ranks #10).
28,596 PTS - Shaquille O'Neal - Rank #9 NBA - Rank #11 inc. ABA.
28,289 PTS - Carmelo Anthony - Rank #10 NBA - Rank #12 inc. ABA.
27,687 PTS - James Harden - Rank #11 NBA - Rank #13 inc. ABA.

602 points behind Carmelo.
909 points behind O'Neal.
1,893 points behind Moses.

Being conservative, I will assume James will play 70 games this season and average 19 points per game (last season he averaged 23, and the season before, he averaged 16. James turned 36 in August). That gives a season total points of 1,330 points. However, he could definitely outperform this, since he had 1,802 points last season. He also could underperform this, as he had 1,192 and 1,216 points the previous two seasons.

Assuming this is true, we can expect to see him pass Carmelo for the #10 spot on the NBA list (and #12 on the combined list) in ~32 games. This will happen around the New Year.

We can then expect him to pass Shaquille O'Neal for the #9 spot on the NBA list (and #11 on the combined list) in ~48 games. That would be sometime in February.

The next man after that, Moses Malone, seems like a long shot this season, but passing him would not be officially recognized by the NBA. Julius Erving is next after that (by 500 points), followed by Kevin Durant, who is active, and it is tough to see that happening soon.

The next realistic recognized leaderboard change for James would be rising to #8 on the NBA list to pass Wilt Chamberlain, which seems like it would happen in the 2028 season at the earliest, when Harden is 38 years old. It will not be easy, but I believe Harden will be able to make it there.

[f4p]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

[Caneman786]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

After Kawhi rejoined the team, the Clippers scored and had a net rating on par with a team in the mid 60 wins over a very long stretch of the season.

My prediction is optimistic, in regards to health, but saying there's no chance of it happening is unreasonable. We've seen what the team looks like, then they got better.

Assuming health, in fact, 55 wins is not the bottom. It should even be inevitable. 55 wins translates to a +5.8 net rating based on the Pythagorean Win formula. Is that the cap or maximum? I disagree. Even without Kawhi they could get to that mark, easily.

The chance is way higher that the Clippers will be above that than below it, especially with their added depth.

In fact, I can see the possibility of them being over +10. That is above 63 wins. They had a considerable stretch of +11 last season, perfectly coinciding with Kawhi being off the minutes restriction. And he still missed games in that time. Now with added depth, they've bolstered further from that position. I'm not sure how to factor in strength of schedule easily, it seems like it would be difficult to do, but I don't see it dropping that below, say, +9 (which is 61.6 wins).

[f4p]

Restarted the poll to make it simpler. I would say 63 wins is a good prediction for the Clippers. What do you all see in store?

The clippers over/under is 48.5 wins. There is essentially no chance they win 63. They are very old and will be doing everything possible to get through the regular season healthy for the playoffs. Unless they find a time machine to take harden, Paul, and kawhi back to 2017, I would say 55 wins is probably the best they can hope for. Now I will say, unless they have disastrous health, they should hit the over thanks to their depth.

After Kawhi rejoined the team, the Clippers scored and had a net rating on par with a team in the mid 60 wins over a very long stretch of the season.

My prediction is optimistic, in regards to health, but saying there's no chance of it happening is unreasonable. We've seen what the team looks like, then they got better.

Assuming health, in fact, 55 wins is not the bottom. It should even be inevitable. 55 wins translates to a +5.8 net rating based on the Pythagorean Win formula. Is that the cap or maximum? I disagree. Even without Kawhi they could get to that mark, easily.

The chance is way higher that the Clippers will be above that than below it, especially with their added depth.

In fact, I can see the possibility of them being over +10. That is above 63 wins. They had a considerable stretch of +11 last season, perfectly coinciding with Kawhi being off the minutes restriction. And he still missed games in that time. Now with added depth, they've bolstered further from that position. I'm not sure how to factor in strength of schedule easily, it seems like it would be difficult to do, but I don't see it dropping that below, say, +9 (which is 61.6 wins).

the 2015 atlanta hawks started the season 40-8, a very long stretch of games, and then finished about 0.500 over the rest of the season. the 2014 pacers were 46-13 at one point and then finished 10-13. that miami heat team that started 11-30 won 13 games in a row. teams can play over their heads for fairly long stretches, but +10 is an elite net rating in nba history. very few teams ever have reached it. and they've mostly been young and deep teams that played all out in the regular season and had all-stars and secret impact all-stars on the roster and didn't need to rest for the playoffs. kawhi is older and will be lucky to play 3/4 of the season. harden is 36 and probably wasn't even all-star caliber last year, much less this year. and the rest of the roster is good depth and "better impact than they look" from some guys. but that maybe gets you a nice +7 season if everything goes well. +10 is an all-time team and there's a reason vegas has the clippers at 48.5 wins and like +3000 title odds. i don't even mean this sarcastically, if you think they are going to win 63, you should bet a bunch of money on their over.

[Caneman786]

the 2015 atlanta hawks started the season 40-8, a very long stretch of games, and then finished about 0.500 over the rest of the season. the 2014 pacers were 46-13 at one point and then finished 10-13. that miami heat team that started 11-30 won 13 games in a row. teams can play over their heads for fairly long stretches, but +10 is an elite net rating in nba history. very few teams ever have reached it.

This is a fair point, but I believe the examples you use exaggerate amount of variance quite a bit. On top of this, I have been using net rating, which is more predictive than record.

In the example of the Atlanta Hawks, they were +7.8 in that first part of the season you mention, then they were +3.2 in the second part (that they actually went 20-14 in, well above .500). That's not such a big difference as much as the records would indicate, and significant regression to the mean occurred.

If we translated their pure winning pace to net rating, you would expect it to have gone from a +13 net rating to a +3 net rating.

However, in reality, it only changed by +4.6. If the Clippers went down +4.6 from +11.2, they end up at +6.6, which is a pace of roughly 57 wins.

Your next example, the Indiana Pacers in 2014 had significant roster changes that seem to have sparked the change of how good they were. That trend of them being below average seemed to continue into the playoffs, showing it was indeed a real change. Just in the first round, they were getting taken to 7 and barely winning against the 8 seed Hawks.

The next example is the Heat, who do have a big showing. They went from -4.9 to +6.9. The record of course still overstated how much they improved by (with the record suggesting that they would have gone from -8.2 to +8.2). All in all, this one has to be signal. There was probably some noise, but a change like this suggests that the team really did get better.

Finally, these are all some of the most extreme examples you have shown. It doesn't get much more than this, showing that when such changes happen, they are a rarity. The signal is stronger than the noise.

That's what I'd say about the +11.2 Clippers we saw at the end of last season. There sure may be have been some level of noise. Maybe even the team really should have been more like +8 or +9. But the strength they showed definitely has a level of signal that the potential is there for a really good team. And it gets capped off by off-season moves that bolster them even more.

What we can be certain of is there's no way that they're gonna be only the +3 team that Vegas is seeing. And Vegas can be wrong. Last season was a great example, as although they set the Clippers over / under at 35.5 wins. The team won 50 games and posted a net rating of +4.9, legitimizing that (in fact, +4.9 translates more closely to 53 wins!).

It's not out of question that they're seriously missing something major. Vegas misses all the time. Another team I suspect they're making a miss, on the low side, would be the Golden State Warriors.

That same Clippers team last season that went +4.9 played Amir Coffey 1,750 minutes, and also played Terance Mann and KPJ 800 minutes a piece. There are no such weak links on this year's squad.

Another major factor that gives me a lot of confidence in the team's high floor is their level of defensive play. If you weren't aware, last season, their defense consistently was 5 points per 100 possessions better than league average, good for 3rd in the league and making up virtually their entire positive rating. However, it was not a fluke. They made a major change in the summer of 2024 that I believe sparked it: Hiring assistant coach and defensive coordinator Jeff Van Gundy.

Some other important moves were signing Derrick Jones Jr., a great point-of-attack defender, giving additional emphasis to Kris Dunn throughout the season, and the emergence of Ivica Zubac as a top-tier rim protector. But the primary credit goes to Jeff.

Out of the 16 seasons Jeff has coached, he has had a top 6 defense in every single season. And the Clippers got bigger as well, with John Collins' addition and more depth, you can pencil them in as being a lock for having a top 5 defense. And while I don't have any research to back it up, I do believe that defense is likely to be more stable than offense, which should give the Clippers a major advantage as the season continues.

they've mostly been young and deep teams that played all out in the regular season and had all-stars and secret impact all-stars on the roster and didn't need to rest for the playoffs.

Its not as if its unheard of for an old team to be really good. The late Spurs and late 90s Bulls jump to mind quickly.

Not to mention the 2026 Clippers are very deep. 11 serviceable players, who were all playing serious minutes last season. It likely won't be a concern throughout the season.

The Clippers do have three all-star caliber players in Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac, and James Harden. Just take EPM last season for proof.

Rank #10 Ivica Zubac, +4.1
Rank #11 Kawhi Leonard, +4.0
Rank #33, James Harden, +3.1 (definitely in the range you find all-stars)

When adjusting for minutes load in estimated wins, Zubac ticks up to #5 and Harden jumps all the way to #9.

As for secret all-stars, Kris Dunn had an EPM of +1.8, ranking in the top 70, but even more intriguing than this was the Defensive EPM of +3.5, which was #2 in the league. He is probably the closest thing.

Considering you didn't mention him, Zubac also may be that silent all-star, but I don't think he's that silent, as he's been starting to get recognition around the league.

harden is 36 and probably wasn't even all-star caliber last year, much less this year.

This is puzzling. Why not? I didn't think it was controversial.

there's a reason vegas has the clippers at 48.5 wins and like +3000 title odds.

Just a correction, the title odds are +2000 for the Clippers, which is about a 5% chance.

[f4p]

the 2015 atlanta hawks started the season 40-8, a very long stretch of games, and then finished about 0.500 over the rest of the season. the 2014 pacers were 46-13 at one point and then finished 10-13. that miami heat team that started 11-30 won 13 games in a row. teams can play over their heads for fairly long stretches, but +10 is an elite net rating in nba history. very few teams ever have reached it.

This is a fair point, but I believe the examples you use exaggerate amount of variance quite a bit. On top of this, I have been using net rating, which is more predictive than record.

To be clear, I'm a harden fan and I hope they go 82-0 and sweep the playoffs. I'm just trying to temper your expectations. There have been 12 +10 teams in all of NBA history and half of them are the 90's bulls and 2010's warriors. And another 3 are the early 70s bucks and Lakers in a massively talent diluted league so they probably weren't actually that good.

Even +9 there are only 4 more teams ever. So even if we start at 1970, we're getting a +9 team only about 1 out of every 3 seasons. And a +11 team 1 out of every 10 seasons.

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

[Caneman786]

To be clear, I'm a harden fan and I hope they go 82-0 and sweep the playoffs. I'm just trying to temper your expectations.

Your point is valid, of course. It will be an uphill climb to get to +10, which is something very few teams have accomplished. Perhaps it'll turn out that the prediction was so far off that this group having done it would have been impossible under any circumstance. Knowing this, I still choose to be bullish on this team.

I won't be disappointed, though, if they don't reach 63 wins, or even 60 wins (which has a much more manageable equivalent of a net rating of +8.2).

There have been 12 +10 teams in all of NBA history and half of them are the 90's bulls and 2010's warriors. And another 3 are the early 70s bucks and Lakers in a massively talent diluted league so they probably weren't actually that good.

Even +9 there are only 4 more teams ever. So even if we start at 1970, we're getting a +9 team only about 1 out of every 3 seasons. And a +11 team 1 out of every 10 seasons.

I have a nitpick to make on this point.

We must be using a different definition of what a +10 team is, since I counted, just since 1997 (which is all we know the exact numbers for), 7 teams that are +10 or above and 11 (?) more that are from +9 to +9.9. I am using the raw net rating information per 100 possessions from NBA.com: LINKED

+12.7 – 2025 OKC
+11.8 - 1997 CHI
+11.7 - 2024 BOS
+11.4 - 2017 GSW
+11.1 - 2016 SAS
+10.8 - 2008 BOS
+10.6 - 2016 GSW

+9.9 - 2013 OKC
+9.9 - 2015 GSW
+9.8 - 1997 UTA
+9.6 - 2009 CLE
+9.4 - 2020 MIL
+9.4 - 2025 BOS
+9.2 - 2007 SAS
+9.2 - 2025 CLE
+9.1 - 1999 SAS
+9.0 - 2001 LAL
+9.0 - 2021 UTA

So it seems there are probably more +10 and definitely way more +9 teams than what you say, if you strictly use net rating.

Furthermore, it's important to mention that as the league average offensive rating has increased, a high net rating (of, say, +10, or +9) has gotten easier and easier to achieve. Just last season we had three different teams legitimately get a +9.0 net rating,

For example, the 1997 Chicago Bulls, who existed in a league where the average offensive rating was 105.0 stand out more than the 2024 Boston Celtics did, as the league average in 2024 was 114.5. In fact, the 1997 Bulls value of +11.8 would separate itself from the average in the league to the tune of a +12.9 net rating team today, which would be higher than the Thunder* and is, of course, the highest as far back as we have confirmed data with the beginning of the play-by-play era being that season.

* The '97 Bulls value falls to +12.8 if normalized to the slightly lower league average offensive rating in 2025, which was 113.7, but it still remains a touch above the Thunder's.

There are many teams that certainly have the footprint of a team that has a +10 net rating today, that existed back then. Just in the 1997 season, we have the 1997 Jazz that dominated the league as much as a +10.6 team would have done in 2025, and Seattle Super Sonics were not far behind with a footprint of a +9.2 team.

As a note, all my Pythagorean win projections that I have been using to determine equivalent wins in this discussion have been using a baseline offensive rating of 114 as the league average, as it has hovered around there in the last three NBA seasons (and the exponent 14, which is what cleaningtheglass.com uses).

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

The Clippers after the Kawhi minute restriction were lifted were just the same, in fact, beating out the Warriors in every measure, from record to net rating, and honestly even performance in the playoffs (as the Clippers outscored the Nuggets during the series, and that same Nuggets team gave the champions Thunder their hardest fight, as was said by players on the team). Why not grant them the same charity of being a "mid 50s" team?

[f4p]

There have been 12 +10 teams in all of NBA history and half of them are the 90's bulls and 2010's warriors. And another 3 are the early 70s bucks and Lakers in a massively talent diluted league so they probably weren't actually that good.

Even +9 there are only 4 more teams ever. So even if we start at 1970, we're getting a +9 team only about 1 out of every 3 seasons. And a +11 team 1 out of every 10 seasons.

I have a nitpick to make on this point.

We must be using a different definition of what a +10 team is

I was going off of SRS, with a lot of those older +10 net rating teams probably being knocked down by having paces under 100.

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

The Clippers after the Kawhi minute restriction were lifted were just the same, in fact, beating out the Warriors in every measure, from record to net rating, and honestly even performance in the playoffs (as the Clippers outscored the Nuggets during the series, and that same Nuggets team gave the champions Thunder their hardest fight, as was said by players on the team). Why not grant them the same charity of being a "mid 50s" team?

I didn't say the clippers couldn't win in the mid 50s. I think you're also not accounting for how ridiculous the West is. There won't be a ton of gimmes for 52 out of the clippers 82 games. I also think last year's clippers had a bit of joie de vive from their non-kawhi feel good story and jvg rejuvenating the defense, things that I think will feel more "old hat" this season. I think those carried over into kawhi's return and their +11 play was a bit of an illusion, as it turned out to be in the playoffs, where they and the nuggets both basically played at their overall regular seasons level (clippers outscored nuggets by 1 per 100). Despite both kawhi and harden basically playing at regular seasons levels, the team wasn't +11 in the playoffs. Maybe if cp3 just wrecks other teams benches and John Collins has a career year, maybe we can talk about 58 wins or something.

[jalengreen]

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

[f4p]

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

Yeah I was looking at his bbref the other day and couldn't believe how consistently he has missed 15-25 regular season games.

[Caneman786]

I do agree that the warriors also seem to have a quite low over under considering their post jimmy trade record last year. They should be in the mid 50s no problem barring injury (though again, I guess I can't blame Vegas for expecting injuries for one of the oldest teams ever).

Would be a 2022 Warriors esque miracle if they get Butler healthy for a season, let alone at his current age. His track record suggests a guy more likely than not to play <60 games.

This just isn't true.

The last three years Butler played 64 games, 60 games, and 55 games (but was suspended for 14 games).

Assuming no suspension issues he can get to 60 games. The numbers from 2020 and 2021 are skewed because of COVID.

Meaning that the only season apart from his rookie season he didn't get to 60 games was 2022, when the Heat had the 1 seed, and 2018, which was the season with the mid-season Timberwolves-Sixers trade.

[Caneman786]

I didn't say the clippers couldn't win in the mid 50s. I think you're also not accounting for how ridiculous the West is. There won't be a ton of gimmes for 52 out of the clippers 82 games. I also think last year's clippers had a bit of joie de vive from their non-kawhi feel good story and jvg rejuvenating the defense, things that I think will feel more "old hat" this season. I think those carried over into kawhi's return and their +11 play was a bit of an illusion, as it turned out to be in the playoffs, where they and the nuggets both basically played at their overall regular seasons level (clippers outscored nuggets by 1 per 100). Despite both kawhi and harden basically playing at regular seasons levels, the team wasn't +11 in the playoffs. Maybe if cp3 just wrecks other teams benches and John Collins has a career year, maybe we can talk about 58 wins or something.

Honestly fair enough. The West is tough, and there's no free games in this conference. And we're not in the locker room, so we don't know what's going on. It really could be the case that there's less energy this season than last season, and that causes a negative impact on their ratings.

Personally, I think the Nuggets were a great foil to the Clippers, with their size advantage, and that played a role in the field looking more even than it "should" have. Excluding the game 7 blowout, the numbers might also look a little bit different. I also think the Nuggets were better than their record and their net rating, but I don't have any evidence for it.

We will never know for sure, especially because the Clippers didn't survive the onslaught of Aaron Gordon buzzer beating dunks or Russell Westbrook shooting 40% from 3, and so they never got to face the Thunder, which would have given us more of a picture of what they could have accomplished. Of course, Kawhi also could have gotten injured in that series, and we never would get to this position at all where we have a healthy Kawhi.

We'll just have to wait until the season gets started, but it's interesting talking until then.
I'm excited to see what'll happen when the season begins. There will be ups and downs, but it'll be fun, for sure. All across the league.