Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #19-#20 Spots

[70sFan]

Welcome to the new iteration of the greatest peaks project with the new format! This time, we will rank the greatest 25 peaks of the last 25 seasons:

2000/01 - 2024/25.

Just to remind the rules:

1. Official ballots must include 4 different player seasons (name + year) with the (at least short) explanation for each of them. We will conclude the 2 best peaks in this thread based on the results of the voting, using Kemeny method.

2. The thread will be open for 7 days (up to August 31st), unless the longer period will be necessary. I am open to make it longer, but we have to make it through all the threads and all the eras.

3. The participation criteria are the following:

1. Account creation before August 2024.
2. At least 100 posts on RealGM forums.

Of course I recommend everyone who doesn't meet the criteria to contribute on these threads without voting, that would help us adding you in the later stages of the project.

Remember to pick the year for your choices and please, provide all the seasons worth the place IN ORDER - that would help us to conclude the year for a winning player.

The criteria are up to you, but you need to briefly explain it for the rest of the voting panel. It is good to take into account the data from surrounding seasons to evaluate players, but remember to pick a specific season.

Deadline: 12:00 am Wednesday 7th November

Here is the voting panel:

Spoiler:

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If anyone wants to join in, please let me know.

The list:


#1. 2008/09 LeBron James
#2. 2002/03 Tim Duncan
#3. 2022/23 Nikola Jokic
#4. 2016/17 Stephen Curry
#5. 2000/01 Shaquille O'Neal
#6. 2003/04 Kevin Garnett
#7. 2020/21 Giannis Antetokumpo
#8. 2005/06 Dwyane Wade
#9. 2016/17 Kawhi Leonard
#10. 2024/25 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
#11. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki
#12. 2008/09 Kobe Bryant
#13. 2014/15 Chris Paul
#14. 2013/14 Kevin Durant
#15. 2004/05 Steve Nash
#16. 2017/18 James Harden
#17. 2015/16 Draymond Green
#18. 2004/05 Manu Ginobili

[70sFan]

Last round was a little less active, but I hope we'll come back to the regular intensity of discussion

I will probably keep my top 3 and I'd add Dwight (or Gobert?).

[Djoker]

I didn't vote for Draymond or Manu and I think both guys went too high but that's been discussed to death.

Either way, my ballot is the same as the last thread.

19. 2020 Anthony Davis
20. 2023 Joel Embiid
21. 2024 Luka Doncic
22. 2003 Tracy Mcgrady

I've gone at length about AD's case in prior threads quoted here. In fact most of the reasoning here is just copied from prior threads.

Spoiler:

The last spot was also tough. It's between Davis and Dirk for me. The thing is... in the 2020 playoffs, AD was shooting so well that he was Dirk-like. 55% from long midrange and 38% from 3pt land is elite shooting. And compared with DIrk, he was also deadly near the basket and more importantly, an elite player on the other end of the court too. I do consider Dirk's intangibles to be better and his shooting gravity cannot be understated but I still feel like 2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki as a basketball player. Certainly not a lot better but he's at least reasonably close offensively while being an elite defensive big man. That combo is tough to beat. He co-led the 2020 Lakers with Lebron so he flies a bit under the radar but he played like a first option, no doubt about it regardless of if you think Lebron was better than him that year. And I don't think his shooting is a total fluke. In the 2023 playoffs, he again shot 59% from long midrange and 33% from 3pt land over 16 games. Ben and Cody discussed on the podcast how AD somehow shoots orders of magnitude better in the PS and that it might be noise but this project is about 1-year peaks. I can't pretend like Davis shot poorly when he in fact shot the lights out. For his entire Lakers' run, the man shot 51% from midrange and 33% from 3pt in the playoffs over 47 games. What I also don't like about Dirk is that he's a 7 footer than isn't a rim protector. Basically you have to pair him up with a great defensive C and that is tough in terms of roster construction. Basically, as good as Dirk is, I do feel like his prototype of player is limiting.

I also considered AD over guys like KD but ultimately I don't think he has the same advantage on defense over those guys that he does on Dirk. And more importantly, those KD's defensive weaknesses are IMO easier to shore up in a team concept compared to DIrk's.

With that said, I don't love his impact stat portfolio being so pedestrian. It does give me some pause although I understand AD to be a huge playoff riser. His elite shooting combined with elite defense in the 2020 playoffs is the most value I can get out of any remaining player. Is it sustainable? I mean I think so. His length, size, and athleticism are elite so his defensive dominance is there. And if we look at another lengthy PS run in 2023, he also shoots the lights out so we can't dismiss his hot shooting as being on a heater. If a heater is 40 games long, at that point it's not a heater anymore. It's sustained great shooting.

Next is Embiid for me. His RS resume is spectacular to the point that he's definitely in top 10 discussions for RS only. Problem is his body frequently breaks down by the time the playoffs roll around. I chose 2023 as his peak despite the PS injury because judging by his play in surrounding relatively healthy years like 2021 and 2024, he could have continued his MVP form into the PS. He's the toughest player to place but around here feels right. Embiid at his best in the PS is behind AD at his best and PS as always is the tiebreaker.

And the last spot comes down to Luka vs. T-Mac. T-Mac just hasn't proven that he can lead a high level team. Not due to any fault of his own because that Magic team was putrid and had no business even pushing Detroit but Luka has proven that he can be a centerpiece of a winning system (one Finals, one WCF) and T-Mac hasn't. Even though in a vacuum I think an easy case can be made that T-Mac is the better player with his more efficient scoring and far superior defense.

[One_and_Done]

1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)

HM: Tatum, Dwight

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

As for Jimmy, he is giving you enough of Kobe’s scoring, on better efficiency, but is supplementing that with elite D, and a vastly better floor game, that just leads to more winning. I’m not entirely sure why we’d focus on things like “ppg” in 1 series is a sensible response.

Sometimes stats aren’t everything, because volume stats can’t always capture the impact a guy is having. That said, when you look at say Jimmy Butler’s 2022 playoffs it looks better than Kobe’s 09 playoffs.

Butler 22 PS per 100: 38/10/6, on 604 TS%
Kobe 09 PS per 100: 39/7/7, on 564 TS%

Even raw numbers, which don’t capture Butler’s D and floor game, seem to favour him.

Butler’s absurd carry jobs are being too quickly forgotten. All three of his playoff runs, in 20, 22, and 23, were absurd. He took a starting group of Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, old Kevin Love, and Bam, to the finals. That’s ridiculous.

Butler’s impact on those teams is borne out by the win loss record also. From 20-23 the Heat were 144-81 with Butler, and only 37-41 without him. I’m going with 2023 Butler to account for injuries, even though he was a bit banged up by the finals, just because 64/82 games is enough, given all he did in the playoffs. His 2020 health is better than you think too, given there was a shorter season, he actually played 58/73 games.

Butler’s stats don’t jump off the page as some do, although as I noted above he sure looks comparable to someone like Kobe per 100, but his impact does. Stats don’t always capture stuff like your floor game, or defence, or the little things like intangibles, but it was very clear Jimmy had all those.

My last 2 places are for T-Mac and AD, but open to being persuaded otherwise (for actual superstar candidates, not role players).

[Cavsfansince84]

1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)

HM: Tatum, Dwight

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

Personally, what I will say re Luka is that I do think a lot of people have some kind of blind spot when it comes to what he does on a bb court. Maybe its rapm based, maybe it's something else but if you asked me who had the highest peak between 09 Kobe, 06 Wade and 24 Luka without taking the finals of each player into account I think it might be Luka. I'd also agree on Jimmy being worthy of making ballots. I would vote 2020 Jimmy above 2023 because his overall playoffs was much better and he was prob better defensively.

[70sFan]

1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)

HM: Tatum, Dwight

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

As for Jimmy, he is giving you enough of Kobe’s scoring, on better efficiency, but is supplementing that with elite D, and a vastly better floor game, that just leads to more winning. I’m not entirely sure why we’d focus on things like “ppg” in 1 series is a sensible response.

Sometimes stats aren’t everything, because volume stats can’t always capture the impact a guy is having. That said, when you look at say Jimmy Butler’s 2022 playoffs it looks better than Kobe’s 09 playoffs.

Butler 22 PS per 100: 38/10/6, on 604 TS%
Kobe 09 PS per 100: 39/7/7, on 564 TS%

Even raw numbers, which don’t capture Butler’s D and floor game, seem to favour him.

Butler’s absurd carry jobs are being too quickly forgotten. All three of his playoff runs, in 20, 22, and 23, were absurd. He took a starting group of Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, old Kevin Love, and Bam, to the finals. That’s ridiculous.

Butler’s impact on those teams is borne out by the win loss record also. From 20-23 the Heat were 144-81 with Butler, and only 37-41 without him. I’m going with 2023 Butler to account for injuries, even though he was a bit banged up by the finals, just because 64/82 games is enough, given all he did in the playoffs. His 2020 health is better than you think too, given there was a shorter season, he actually played 58/73 games.

Butler’s stats don’t jump off the page as some do, although as I noted above he sure looks comparable to someone like Kobe per 100, but his impact does. Stats don’t always capture stuff like your floor game, or defence, or the little things like intangibles, but it was very clear Jimmy had all those.

My last 2 places are for T-Mac and AD, but open to being persuaded otherwise (for actual superstar candidates, not role players).

Kobe is voted in for a month, why can't you just move on?

[One_and_Done]

It's useful to compare guys not in yet to players who are.

[70sFan]

It's useful to compare guys not in yet to players who are.

That is why you keep using Kobe and only Kobe as the reference point. Don't treat us like children...

[lessthanjake]

It's useful to compare guys not in yet to players who are.

But you’re just comparing to one player who is in, and it’s a player who happens to be one that you don’t even think should be in yet. Your opinion of Kobe is so low that you saying you think others guys are better than Kobe really tells us nothing about whether they’re the guys who should be voted in in this thread. Basically, your voting posts speak much more to you thinking Kobe was voted in too early than it does to any discussion about who exactly should be voted in in this thread.

[lessthanjake]

So I think the players I vote for in this thread will be Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum. Not sure how I’ll order the last two.

Since I don’t think he’s seen any mention yet, I do also want to note that it might be worth thinking soon about whether 2025 Haliburton should eventually be voted in. His playoff run was pretty great, particularly in terms of big moments, and he did get a surprise team to Game 7 of the Finals. That was after a regular season in which he was pretty comfortably top 10 in stuff like EPM, BPM, WS/48, etc. I’ve said I won’t vote for someone who had a playoff-ending injury, but I’m not sure I feel like that in the specific context where the playoff-ending injury occurs in Game 7 of the Finals, so the guy actually appeared in every possible playoff game and just went out early in the last possible game. It just doesn’t feel the same, in terms of the injury preventing his team from having a chance to win the title—a team can potentially hold their own for 3.5 quarters without their best player, and if they’d done so then they’d have won the title. I think I’d ding him for it, but it’s not dispositive for me. Anyways, I’m not at all sure I’ll ever put him on my ballot. There’s a lot of guys to consider—such as McGrady, Kidd, Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, etc. But I do think Haliburton should be in the world of players we are considering in the last few spots. He had an incredibly memorable year.

[LA Bird]

Literally first rule in board guidelines:

Derailing Discussion - Users must not make posts that takes discussions off track. EX: there is a discussion of Ray Allen v. Paul Pierce and a user comes in with the comment that "Kobe is a far better shooter than either of them, unlike Jordan who couldn't hit a 3 pointer." Don't do this.

...

Users who cannot comply with these risk getting Board Banned from this forum.

There is a discussion of Davis v Embiid v Luka v Tatum v Butler and a user comes in with the comment that Kobe is a way worse player than them.
Textbook derailing. Considering said poster's history, I think they should just be removed from the project to avoid further derailments.

[iggymcfrack]

Glad to see Draymond and Manu go! Hip hip hooray! Very deserving! To compare it to the Thinking Basketball project, we got them in at #17 and #18 compared to #21 and #22 there.

[iggymcfrack]

1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)

HM: Tatum, Dwight

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

Personally, what I will say re Luka is that I do think a lot of people have some kind of blind spot when it comes to what he does on a bb court. Maybe its rapm based, maybe it's something else but if you asked me who had the highest peak between 09 Kobe, 06 Wade and 24 Luka without taking the finals of each player into account I think it might be Luka. I'd also agree on Jimmy being worthy of making ballots. I would vote 2020 Jimmy above 2023 because his overall playoffs was much better and he was prob better defensively.

It seems to me the big difference between 2024 Luka and the seasons you mentioned is that he had one of the worst defensive playoffs of all-time. If a guy has similar offensive numbers to the other top stars, but his impact stats are much worse, and then he’s setting records for how frequently he’s getting blown by in 3 out of 4 series, he’s probably a pretty major defensive liability.

[jalengreen]

So I think the players I vote for in this thread will be Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum. Not sure how I’ll order the last two.

Since I don’t think he’s seen any mention yet, I do also want to note that it might be worth thinking soon about whether 2025 Haliburton should eventually be voted in. His playoff run was pretty great, particularly in terms of big moments, and he did get a surprise team to Game 7 of the Finals. That was after a regular season in which he was pretty comfortably top 10 in stuff like EPM, BPM, WS/48, etc. I’ve said I won’t vote for someone who had a playoff-ending injury, but I’m not sure I feel like that in the specific context where the playoff-ending injury occurs in Game 7 of the Finals, so the guy actually appeared in every possible playoff game and just went out early in the last possible game. It just doesn’t feel the same, in terms of the injury preventing his team from having a chance to win the title—a team can potentially hold their own for 3.5 quarters without their best player, and if they’d done so then they’d have won the title. I think I’d ding him for it, but it’s not dispositive for me. Anyways, I’m not at all sure I’ll ever put him on my ballot. There’s a lot of guys to consider—such as McGrady, Kidd, Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, etc. But I do think Haliburton should be in the world of players we are considering in the last few spots. He had an incredibly memorable year.

This feels like something you can easily extend beyond Game 7 of the Finals, though. For example, I think that if Chris Paul's injury in the 2018 WCF was playoff ending (as in a serious enough injury that, upon occurrence, was immediately known to be season ending), the Rockets still would have had pretty good odds at winning the Finals. Winning 1 of 2 was very doable and beating the 2018 Cavs in the Finals without Paul also would have been doable. So that's an injury in G5 of the WCF that you would say did not prevent his team from having a chance to win the title, right? I guess the spirit of your position here is what isn't actually totally clear to me so hoping to understand it better.

Anyway, Hali definitely had a pretty great year, though I'm not sure how great his postseason really was. It's definitely strongly indexed on his incredible clutch postseason moments, but he (a) wasn't *that* great in the regular season, and (b) was worse in the postseason by basically any metric. The team's playoff run was certainly unexpected and genuinely impressive, though at the same time, they played two injured teams and avoided the Celtics (who were also injured when they lost). None of the series were 'wow that series definitely (or even likely) goes the other way' if not injured, but similar to the 2024 Celtics, it definitely puts a damper on it for me (except without a Finals win). I think peak Dame was firmly better in the regular season than Hali but Hali had a greater postseason. Lean towards both of them probably not being T25 material, but a worthwhile mention

[jalengreen]

1. Luka (2022)
2. Butler (2023)
3. T-Mac (2003)
4. AD (2020)

HM: Tatum, Dwight

In terms of Luka, the argument is pretty clear. The guy basically carried a fairly solid-ish support cast to the finals, and only lost because his team was totally outgunned (and because he was hurt). If Luka had been healthier in 2024 I’d have that as the year to vote for him, but he was sufficiently banged up in the playoffs for it to be a demerit. I’ll take the younger and springier Luka from 2022, who “only” got them to the WCFs.

In terms of skillset, Luka is way above guys like Kobe. He runs an offense, which Kobe can’t, and he can score and set up guys in a way that is levels above Kobe, a guy who bizarrely got in already. Ok, Luka’s defence isn’t good, but you can get away with that when you’re point guard. Kobe’s D was overrated and average after 2004 anyway.

Looking at numbers, it’s not even close.

Luka 22 RS: 40/13/12 per 100, on 571 TS%
Kobe RS 09: 38/7/7 per 100, on 561 TS%

Luka 22 PS: 45/14/9 per 100, on 577 TS%
Kobe PS 09: 39/7/7 per 100, on 564 TS%

It’s not even close. Luka is a guy who will elevate a bad team more, and raise the ceiling of a good team higher as well.

Personally, what I will say re Luka is that I do think a lot of people have some kind of blind spot when it comes to what he does on a bb court. Maybe its rapm based, maybe it's something else but if you asked me who had the highest peak between 09 Kobe, 06 Wade and 24 Luka without taking the finals of each player into account I think it might be Luka. I'd also agree on Jimmy being worthy of making ballots. I would vote 2020 Jimmy above 2023 because his overall playoffs was much better and he was prob better defensively.

It seems to me the big difference between 2024 Luka and the seasons you mentioned is that he had one of the worst defensive playoffs of all-time. If a guy has similar offensive numbers to the other top stars, but his impact stats are much worse, and then he’s setting records for how frequently he’s getting blown by in 3 out of 4 series, he’s probably a pretty major defensive liability.

Peak Luka and Kobe seem to have pretty comparable RS impact stats, with Luka's looking better if anything.

If you mean PS, well it's tough quantifying defensive impact in a single season sample, let alone single postseason. As seen by, for example, his 2024 PS d-EPM being +1.8 (97th percentile).

[Cavsfansince84]

It seems to me the big difference between 2024 Luka and the seasons you mentioned is that he had one of the worst defensive playoffs of all-time. If a guy has similar offensive numbers to the other top stars, but his impact stats are much worse, and then he’s setting records for how frequently he’s getting blown by in 3 out of 4 series, he’s probably a pretty major defensive liability.

It's fair to ding Luka for his defense but his team still managed to take out the #2&3 teams in the league by srs in 6&5 games which both had top 4 defenses with Luka the obvious mvp for his team. Plus Kobe and Wade are already in(a long time ago) as is Nash who gets similar criticism for his defense.

[lessthanjake]

So I think the players I vote for in this thread will be Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum. Not sure how I’ll order the last two.

Since I don’t think he’s seen any mention yet, I do also want to note that it might be worth thinking soon about whether 2025 Haliburton should eventually be voted in. His playoff run was pretty great, particularly in terms of big moments, and he did get a surprise team to Game 7 of the Finals. That was after a regular season in which he was pretty comfortably top 10 in stuff like EPM, BPM, WS/48, etc. I’ve said I won’t vote for someone who had a playoff-ending injury, but I’m not sure I feel like that in the specific context where the playoff-ending injury occurs in Game 7 of the Finals, so the guy actually appeared in every possible playoff game and just went out early in the last possible game. It just doesn’t feel the same, in terms of the injury preventing his team from having a chance to win the title—a team can potentially hold their own for 3.5 quarters without their best player, and if they’d done so then they’d have won the title. I think I’d ding him for it, but it’s not dispositive for me. Anyways, I’m not at all sure I’ll ever put him on my ballot. There’s a lot of guys to consider—such as McGrady, Kidd, Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, etc. But I do think Haliburton should be in the world of players we are considering in the last few spots. He had an incredibly memorable year.

This feels like something you can easily extend beyond Game 7 of the Finals, though. For example, I think that if Chris Paul's injury in the 2018 WCF was playoff ending (as in a serious enough injury that, upon occurrence, was immediately known to be season ending), the Rockets still would have had pretty good odds at winning the Finals. Winning 1 of 2 was very doable and beating the 2018 Cavs in the Finals without Paul also would have been doable. So that's an injury in G5 of the WCF that you would say did not prevent his team from having a chance to win the title, right? I guess the spirit of your position here is what isn't actually totally clear to me so hoping to understand it better.

It’s a bit of a murky issue that involves some judgment calls, but I’ll say a few things:

To address the specific example you gave, I think if a player has a season-ending injury such that they would not have even been able to play in the Finals then it’s an extremely easy decision to me to not vote for it. Part of that is that I’d generally assume that a superstar’s team could not win the Finals without him, so his injury is very likely preventing his team from being able to compete for a title. But also, even if we posited that they potentially could win, I absolutely wouldn’t vote for a year where a player gets injured and his team wins the Finals without him anyways (nor do I think virtually anyone else would). Like, sorry, but if your team wins the Finals without you, then your year really wasn’t that great. Probably someone else on your team’s year was super great (in the example you gave, that would’ve massively elevated 2018 Harden), but not the injured guy’s year. So that kind of hypothetical doesn’t really move me, because I wouldn’t reward that guy with a spot on any ballot even if that had happened.

So yeah, to more generally address the “spirit of my position” thing, I would say it’s really about the player actually being physically capable of being a major protagonist in the ultimate team achievement that the game is all about (i.e. a title). If you were not physically capable of being that, then it’s a dealbreaker to me. In virtually every single case, someone who has a playoff-ending injury is clearly not going to meet that standard. Typically, their injury rendered that ultimate team achievement essentially impossible for their team, but in the hypothetical scenario where it didn’t, the player would not really have been a major protagonist in that achievement anyways because his team would’ve gotten over substantial hurdles without him. At a certain point, though, I think a guy’s injury makes him miss so little time that his injury didn’t make it all that unlikely for his team to win the title and despite getting injured he’d still have been a major protagonist in that title if they had done so. Haliburton getting injured during Game 7 is one of the only possible examples of this I can think of. It happened so late in the series that it really wasn’t implausible for the Pacers to win anyways (what happens in a partial portion of one game is very random!) and if they’d won then he’d still have been a major protagonist in the title. This is a pretty niche example though, and I wouldn’t really expand this logic out to essentially any other situation. The only other example I can think of is 1980 Kareem. He had a playoff-ending injury, but I still think of him as the driving force for his team’s title win, even though he missed the last game in the Finals (and, as per my understanding, would not have been able to play in Game 7 either). So yeah, I’d say if you got injured while your team was one win away from the title, then I’d still consider that year (though this doesn’t mean it’s not a negative factor).

And I’ll just quickly note that I think it essentially *has* to be the case that there’s some line where a categorical will-not-vote-for-playoff-ending-injuries rule must be relaxed. After all, if applied as a 100% bright-line rule, that would disqualify someone who somehow got injured with 1 second left in the Finals. Which is obviously absurd. The question is just where the line is drawn for the playoff-ending injury disqualification being relaxed. I think I’m comfortable relaxing it if the guy’s team was one win away. And I think that’s probably where I draw the line, because I think a playoff-ending injury requiring the guy’s team to get 2 wins in the Finals without him is *probably* too much for me (though I can’t think of an actual example of this specific thing happening, so it’s a bit hypothetical).

[70sFan]

Literally first rule in board guidelines:

Derailing Discussion - Users must not make posts that takes discussions off track. EX: there is a discussion of Ray Allen v. Paul Pierce and a user comes in with the comment that "Kobe is a far better shooter than either of them, unlike Jordan who couldn't hit a 3 pointer." Don't do this.

...

Users who cannot comply with these risk getting Board Banned from this forum.

There is a discussion of Davis v Embiid v Luka v Tatum v Butler and a user comes in with the comment that Kobe is a way worse player than them.
Textbook derailing. Considering said poster's history, I think they should just be removed from the project to avoid further derailments.

Unless mods decide to intervene, I don't want to remove him from the project. I just hope we won't hear anything about Kobe in the next eras (unless someone will mention pre-2001 Kobe as the candidate), otherwise that would require me to do so.

[70sFan]

I didn't vote for Draymond or Manu and I think both guys went too high but that's been discussed to death.

Yeah, I also feel they went too early. In the end though, I am glad how the project goes. I wish I had more time engaging in the discussion, but the project is really good and we still have 2 additional eras left.

[Owly]

So I think the players I vote for in this thread will be Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum. Not sure how I’ll order the last two.

Since I don’t think he’s seen any mention yet, I do also want to note that it might be worth thinking soon about whether 2025 Haliburton should eventually be voted in. His playoff run was pretty great, particularly in terms of big moments, and he did get a surprise team to Game 7 of the Finals. That was after a regular season in which he was pretty comfortably top 10 in stuff like EPM, BPM, WS/48, etc. I’ve said I won’t vote for someone who had a playoff-ending injury, but I’m not sure I feel like that in the specific context where the playoff-ending injury occurs in Game 7 of the Finals, so the guy actually appeared in every possible playoff game and just went out early in the last possible game. It just doesn’t feel the same, in terms of the injury preventing his team from having a chance to win the title—a team can potentially hold their own for 3.5 quarters without their best player, and if they’d done so then they’d have won the title. I think I’d ding him for it, but it’s not dispositive for me. Anyways, I’m not at all sure I’ll ever put him on my ballot. There’s a lot of guys to consider—such as McGrady, Kidd, Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, etc. But I do think Haliburton should be in the world of players we are considering in the last few spots. He had an incredibly memorable year.

This feels like something you can easily extend beyond Game 7 of the Finals, though. For example, I think that if Chris Paul's injury in the 2018 WCF was playoff ending (as in a serious enough injury that, upon occurrence, was immediately known to be season ending), the Rockets still would have had pretty good odds at winning the Finals. Winning 1 of 2 was very doable and beating the 2018 Cavs in the Finals without Paul also would have been doable. So that's an injury in G5 of the WCF that you would say did not prevent his team from having a chance to win the title, right? I guess the spirit of your position here is what isn't actually totally clear to me so hoping to understand it better.

It’s a bit of a murky issue that involves some judgment calls, but I’ll say a few things:

To address the specific example you gave, I think if a player has a season-ending injury such that they would not have even been able to play in the Finals then it’s an extremely easy decision to me to not vote for it. Part of that is that I’d generally assume that a superstar’s team could not win the Finals without him, so his injury is very likely preventing his team from being able to compete for a title. But also, even if we posited that they potentially could win, I absolutely wouldn’t vote for a year where a player gets injured and his team wins the Finals without him anyways (nor do I think virtually anyone else would). Like, sorry, but if your team wins the Finals without you, then your year really wasn’t that great. Probably someone else on your team’s year was super great (in the example you gave, that would’ve massively elevated 2018 Harden), but not the injured guy’s year. So that kind of hypothetical doesn’t really move me, because I wouldn’t reward that guy with a spot on any ballot even if that had happened.

So yeah, to more generally address the “spirit of my position” thing, I would say it’s really about the player actually being physically capable of being a major protagonist in the ultimate team achievement that the game is all about (i.e. a title). If you were not physically capable of being that, then it’s a dealbreaker to me. In virtually every single case, someone who has a playoff-ending injury is clearly not going to meet that standard. Typically, their injury rendered that ultimate team achievement essentially impossible for their team, but in the hypothetical scenario where it didn’t, the player would not really have been a major protagonist in that achievement anyways because his team would’ve gotten over substantial hurdles without him. At a certain point, though, I think a guy’s injury makes him miss so little time that his injury didn’t make it all that unlikely for his team to win the title and despite getting injured he’d still have been a major protagonist in that title if they had done so. Haliburton getting injured during Game 7 is one of the only possible examples of this I can think of. It happened so late in the series that it really wasn’t implausible for the Pacers to win anyways (what happens in a partial portion of one game is very random!) and if they’d won then he’d still have been a major protagonist in the title. This is a pretty niche example though, and I wouldn’t really expand this logic out to essentially any other situation. The only other example I can think of is 1980 Kareem. He had a playoff-ending injury, but I still think of him as the driving force for his team’s title win, even though he missed the last game in the Finals (and, as per my understanding, would not have been able to play in Game 7 either). So yeah, I’d say if you got injured while your team was one win away from the title, then I’d still consider that year (though this doesn’t mean it’s not a negative factor).

And I’ll just quickly note that I think it essentially *has* to be the case that there’s some line where a categorical will-not-vote-for-playoff-ending-injuries rule must be relaxed. After all, if applied as a 100% bright-line rule, that would disqualify someone who somehow got injured with 1 second left in the Finals. Which is obviously absurd. The question is just where the line is drawn for the playoff-ending injury disqualification being relaxed. I think I’m comfortable relaxing it if the guy’s team was one win away. And I think that’s probably where I draw the line, because I think a playoff-ending injury requiring the guy’s team to get 2 wins in the Finals without him is *probably* too much for me (though I can’t think of an actual example of this specific thing happening, so it’s a bit hypothetical).

One major point on a point of fact then maybe an opinion on other stuff since Kareem brought me here.

My understanding has been that Kareem's injury wouldn't have been season ending. We can't really "know" since nobody cared about on the would-be date of game 7. My impression though had been that it was though better for him to stay at home, and rest the ankle "for game 7" ... i.e. anticipating he would play. I believe he said in his first biography there was "no way" he was missing game 7 though of course it might not ultimately be up to him. He did play through it game 5 though that isn't a guarantee of anything going forward.


On another specific framing the methodology ... I guess I'm just repeating the prior poster but ... doesn't 2 chances to win 1 situation against by far the toughest opponent (coming out of three straight 10+ SRS seasons with a less maxed-out rs that year) with a finals against I don't want to just list Cleveland's SRS (0.59) but ... even granting playoff upside a team that was very heavily reliant on one elite player and had been unconvincing against two of their playoff opponents (outscored Boston by 6, outscored by Indiana by 40).

Typically, their injury rendered that ultimate team achievement essentially impossible for their team, but in the hypothetical scenario where it didn’t, the player would not really have been a major protagonist in that achievement anyways because his team would’ve gotten over substantial hurdles without him

So I don't "hard" disagree with this phrasing as applied to that scenario ... but 2 to win 1 is pretty advantageous and could require luck as much as good. And then one series against a relative outsider (this is the post-Kyrie Cavs remember, with 8th in rotation minutes Nance the only other playoff player with a BPM clearly in the positive) ... I don't know, I would tend to think there is pretty substantial championship equity in that. Further, I don't think it would have required another player to be "super great" in this broad scenario, because whilst this particular team was driven by two superstars, so the chances are Harden will be good ... but you only need to win one game (by however narrow a margin). you get one game on your home court. Then another HCA series against a lesser opponent. Especially in a more generalized scenario with a more balanced roster I don't think it requires one player to be exceptional. And I'm not sure it matters for evaluating the injured player (either the title equity is already contributed or not), how one other player played, except for back-filling narrative purposes to give the champs a star on the court and IDK, thereby diminishing the injured player? Though clearly, fwiw, in actual Houston's case that wouldn't have been required so much because they already have a star (Harden) who's above Paul on the perceived pecking order.