Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan - 2026 NBA Draft - Lottery pick

[theBigLip]

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old.

Initial Struggles: When Lendeborg first transferred to Michigan from UAB, head coach Dusty May noted that his practice habits were "awful" and nowhere near where they needed to be for Big Ten play. He had previously been able to coast on his sheer athleticism and raw basketball talent.

Maturation and Patience: The coaching staff showed patience, guiding him to understand that playing for a top-tier program requires complete mental engagement. May's staff pushed him daily, addressing his flaws with care instead of harsh criticism.

Treating it as a Lifestyle: Lendeborg credits his decision to spend an extra year developing at Michigan as the best choice for his future. He actively worked on attacking practice with a pro-level mentality, realizing he needed to treat his routine as a lifestyle rather than just being happy to have opportunities.

Where is this from? Sounds like a chatGPT summary of something, but if there is an article about how he changed his approach to practice that might be interesting to look at.

Totally Gemini, but it explains the situation. I’m sure it came from an article somewhere

[lastb1ckman]

How high would he be picked, if he was a regular aged senior? So 2 years younger. Would that be enough to be a safe Top 8 pick?

Eh I don't know in this draft the top 10 is pretty strong. Seniors in general are going to be hard pressed to break in pretty far.

If he was a junior, I could definitely see top 8.

[HMFFL]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I have Yaxel as a Scottie Barnes mold of talent but with a three pointer. He would be great in Milwaukee.

[tmorgan]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

#1. Dude was failing all his classes, which is why he didn't play in highschool but the final semester.
#2. It took him 3 years of JUCO to make it to UAB.
#3 It took him 2 years at UAB to make it to power 4 conference.

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old. And he was one of the least athletic players at the combine last week. 3rd worst standing vert, 4th worst max vert out of 72 participants.

RJ Luis will probably dominate in college basketball this year if gets to play at LSU, doesn't mean NBA teams should rethink him and take him top 10.

This is just picking and choosing of results that fit, though.

He has a 9 foot standing reach. His agility drills were good for any position, let alone a 6’9’ forward. He shot well in the drills.

Yaxel’s not an incredible athlete. That’s why I comped him to ~30 year old Tobias Harris. But he can do a lot of things well.

[CptCrunch]

I was thinking this morning. Since juco doesn't count as college eligibility, does a 4th year juco make a player an auto draft entrant at age 22?

Had Yaxel played another year of juco, would he have entered the draft automatically? Since we know college academics is a sham in the context of basketball. Can we understand how Yaxel played 3 years as a juco student? Isn't juco by definition 2 years max? How many bachelor's degree does this man have now? Did Michigan mint him one?

This man's journey embodies the ripe decay and abuse of college sports.

[JMAC3]

There are floors and there are ceilings. Maybe Yaxel’s ceiling is not NBA AllStar. But his floor is high - he plays both ends, can guard multiple positions, can score and pass, team player, and a winner. He’s not going to be a bust. Safe pick in the late lottery.

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

#1. Dude was failing all his classes, which is why he didn't play in highschool but the final semester.
#2. It took him 3 years of JUCO to make it to UAB.
#3 It took him 2 years at UAB to make it to power 4 conference.

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old. And he was one of the least athletic players at the combine last week. 3rd worst standing vert, 4th worst max vert out of 72 participants.

RJ Luis will probably dominate in college basketball this year if gets to play at LSU, doesn't mean NBA teams should rethink him and take him top 10.

This is just picking and choosing of results that fit, though.

He has a 9 foot standing reach. His agility drills were good for any position, let alone a 6’9’ forward. He shot well in the drills.

Yaxel’s not an incredible athlete. That’s why I comped him to ~30 year old Tobias Harris. But he can do a lot of things well.

What did I pick and choose? he played 6 years of college I want to look at whole picture, not just wow as a 6th year player he had an awesome BPM- it has to transfer!!! As a 4th year college player his first year at UAB he put up a 6.2 BPM. That is worse than Koa Peat, Nate Ament, Amari Allen, Malachi Moreno etc... just did as true freshman.

He played college basketball as bigger and stronger than everyone else the last two years, now he goes to the NBA where he will be much more average- except with 5% athleticism. Oh and he is a poor worker with not a great attitude- no way he will bust.

[tmorgan]

I just don't really think there are a lot of great indicators to this...

#1. Dude was failing all his classes, which is why he didn't play in highschool but the final semester.
#2. It took him 3 years of JUCO to make it to UAB.
#3 It took him 2 years at UAB to make it to power 4 conference.

He also tends to lack maturity despite being the oldest player in the room. Michigan coaches also have stated he has bad practice habits as a 24 year old. And he was one of the least athletic players at the combine last week. 3rd worst standing vert, 4th worst max vert out of 72 participants.

RJ Luis will probably dominate in college basketball this year if gets to play at LSU, doesn't mean NBA teams should rethink him and take him top 10.

This is just picking and choosing of results that fit, though.

He has a 9 foot standing reach. His agility drills were good for any position, let alone a 6’9’ forward. He shot well in the drills.

Yaxel’s not an incredible athlete. That’s why I comped him to ~30 year old Tobias Harris. But he can do a lot of things well.

What did I pick and choose? he played 6 years of college I want to look at whole picture, not just wow as a 6th year player he had an awesome BPM- it has to transfer!!! As a 4th year college player his first year at UAB he put up a 6.2 BPM. That is worse than Koa Peat, Nate Ament, Amari Allen, Malachi Moreno etc... just did as true freshman.

He played college basketball as bigger and stronger than everyone else the last two years, now he goes to the NBA where he will be much more average- except with 5% athleticism. Oh and he is a poor worker with not a great attitude- no way he will bust.

Great job continuing after saying you aren’t just picking negatives.

Again, I’m not projecting anything over an average starter, most likely, which on the surface seems like a pretty poor use of a late lottery pick, of course.

But the key, the big difference, is that he’s nearly fully developed. Paint that as a negative for a rebuilding team and I won’t disagree with you. But he’s going to positively contribute immediately, because he’s that ready and has no glaring weaknesses, as long as you stay away from incorrect statements such as “can guard 1-4” and “star potential”. He’s money well spent on his rookie deal, which is pretty rare outside of a top 3-ish pick these days — and not always then. One of the reasons the Hawks can’t trade Risacher easily is that he makes way too much money for what he currently provides. Yaxel won’t have that problem unless I’m completely wrong about his game translating.

Oh, and he clearly doesn’t have “5% athleticism”. Unless that was a typo, you’re either trolling or never watched him play.

[JMAC3]

This is just picking and choosing of results that fit, though.

He has a 9 foot standing reach. His agility drills were good for any position, let alone a 6’9’ forward. He shot well in the drills.

Yaxel’s not an incredible athlete. That’s why I comped him to ~30 year old Tobias Harris. But he can do a lot of things well.

What did I pick and choose? he played 6 years of college I want to look at whole picture, not just wow as a 6th year player he had an awesome BPM- it has to transfer!!! As a 4th year college player his first year at UAB he put up a 6.2 BPM. That is worse than Koa Peat, Nate Ament, Amari Allen, Malachi Moreno etc... just did as true freshman.

He played college basketball as bigger and stronger than everyone else the last two years, now he goes to the NBA where he will be much more average- except with 5% athleticism. Oh and he is a poor worker with not a great attitude- no way he will bust.

Great job continuing after saying you aren’t just picking negatives.

Again, I’m not projecting anything over an average starter, most likely, which on the surface seems like a pretty poor use of a late lottery pick, of course.

But the key, the big difference, is that he’s nearly fully developed. Paint that as a negative for a rebuilding team and I won’t disagree with you. But he’s going to positively contribute immediately, because he’s that ready and has no glaring weaknesses, as long as you stay away from incorrect statements such as “can guard 1-4” and “star potential”. He’s money well spent on his rookie deal, which is pretty rare outside of a top 3-ish pick these days — and not always then. One of the reasons the Hawks can’t trade Risacher easily is that he makes way too much money for what he currently provides. Yaxel won’t have that problem unless I’m completely wrong about his game translating.

Oh, and he clearly doesn’t have “5% athleticism”. Unless that was a typo, you’re either trolling or never watched him play.

He has a a 25.5 inch standing vert- which is 2nd worst at the combine, only better than Mara.
He had a 32 inch Max Vert, which was 4th worst- better than Mara, Moreno and Suder.
His 3/4 sprint was 61st out of 72 participates.

I am sure he looked athletic at 6-9 playing next to Morez and Mara- giving Michigan a massive talent and size advantage every night. Yaxel is going to look at lot less athletic being guarded by starting NBA PFs- who are simply better athletes than him, than the 3 man that Purdue or Penn State were covering him with all year.

He was better in lane agility and shuttle run, but those are more things you can train for and not really about max athleticism. He probably isn't a good perimeter defender in the NBA based on the actual tape. Examples Tarris Reed and Zuby Ejifor also had top 10 shuttle runs.

The selling point is he was a good college player so he is ready day 1, but that has proven wrong so many times before. At the end of the day people get too carried away with college production when in reality that just means they are good college players- not good NBA players. Thomas Robinson, Dalton Knecht, Ochai Agbaji, Duarte, Frank Kaminsky, Wesley Johnson were all drafted lottery too because teams thought they were ready to contribute immediately too- none of those guys were drafted for "star potential" either.

Oh how quickly everyone moves on and immediately wants to run the narrative "This is different" or "Yaxel is nothing like those guys"... just like it was different when Thomas Robinson went 5th overall or Wes Johnson went 4th overall. I promise those teams had the same conviction on those guys as people do on Yaxel.

[JMAC3]

We have to go back 2 whole years to find people who were pushing Dalton Knecht as a legit top 5-7 pick option. Why? because he was never going to be a star but he was day 1 NBA ready since he was so productive in college and already so developed skill wise. It didn't matter he went to Juco and then a weak Div1 school- because he was good for 1 year at Tennessee. Sound familiar to anyone in this draft?

I mean the situation is basically the same career arc for a guy that is going to be an NBA Journeyman if he is lucky.

[THEJOHN_IV]

We have to go back 2 whole years to find people who were pushing Dalton Knecht as a legit top 5-7 pick option. Why? because he was never going to be a star but he was day 1 NBA ready since he was so productive in college and already so developed skill wise. It didn't matter he went to Juco and then a weak Div1 school- because he was good for 1 year at Tennessee. Sound familiar to anyone in this draft?

I mean the situation is basically the same career arc for a guy that is going to be an NBA Journeyman if he is lucky.

1000% agree and with the attitude issues, just not worth it tbh

[tmorgan]

We have to go back 2 whole years to find people who were pushing Dalton Knecht as a legit top 5-7 pick option. Why? because he was never going to be a star but he was day 1 NBA ready since he was so productive in college and already so developed skill wise. It didn't matter he went to Juco and then a weak Div1 school- because he was good for 1 year at Tennessee. Sound familiar to anyone in this draft?

I mean the situation is basically the same career arc for a guy that is going to be an NBA Journeyman if he is lucky.

Yeah, ok. Because Yaxel is just like Knecht, after all. He’s clearly just a shooter.

This is such poor analysis I don’t even know where to begin, so I’ll keep it short with just one point. Saying all older guys/juco guys are going to turn out the same is no less stupid than saying all one-and-dones are going to turn out the same.

Also, since you persist with only negatives:

Mutombo. Josh Howard. Cam Johnson. Buddy Hield. Taj Gibson. — older or only a few months younger
Derrick White. Tayshaun Prince. Taurean Prince. Battier. Siakam. Brogdon. — 23 as rookies, so about a year younger.

[Upperclass]

Yaxel would be perfect in OKC as a Dort replacement

[azcatz11]

I'm going with Rui as my comp (final answer)

Rui had more of a mid range game in college. I think the Hornets would be a good fit for him

[CptCrunch]

I'm not hating on Yaxel here as I make another post. He is legitimately very good right now in college.

Just an example to call out on the concept of acclimation. Would be Deni Avdija. When you get enough chances in an environment, players will develop to their potential. Deni is example of this. Wizards got clowned for picking Deni, but look at him after 6 years, an all star putting up like 24/7/7.

My argument here is that many players (some countable set not everyone perhaps a few dozen if you give all college players 6 years of chances) will be succeeding like Yaxel if they got 6 years in college

[JMAC3]

We have to go back 2 whole years to find people who were pushing Dalton Knecht as a legit top 5-7 pick option. Why? because he was never going to be a star but he was day 1 NBA ready since he was so productive in college and already so developed skill wise. It didn't matter he went to Juco and then a weak Div1 school- because he was good for 1 year at Tennessee. Sound familiar to anyone in this draft?

I mean the situation is basically the same career arc for a guy that is going to be an NBA Journeyman if he is lucky.

Yeah, ok. Because Yaxel is just like Knecht, after all. He’s clearly just a shooter.

This is such poor analysis I don’t even know where to begin, so I’ll keep it short with just one point. Saying all older guys/juco guys are going to turn out the same is no less stupid than saying all one-and-dones are going to turn out the same.

Also, since you persist with only negatives:

Mutombo. Josh Howard. Cam Johnson. Buddy Hield. Taj Gibson. — older or only a few months younger
Derrick White. Tayshaun Prince. Taurean Prince. Battier. Siakam. Brogdon. — 23 as rookies, so about a year younger.

Mutombo was 40 years ago lol.... and taking Taj Gibson 26th, Josh Howard 29th, Brogdon 36th, Tayshaun 23rd, Siakam 27th, Derick White 29th are very different than taking Yaxel top 10. Of course if you draft 200 seniors after pick 20 some are going to work out.

This isn't even Yaxel has 0% working out, but the math says the chances are lower. So going against the percentages is one thing, but then to also draft him top 10 seems like doubling down on a bad trend.

Here is what Chat GPT says about drafting each class with a top 20 pick.

Seniors (The Red Flag Group)

Top-20 Senior Results (last 15 years):

Wesley Johnson
Jimmer Fredette
Frank Kaminsky
Kris Dunn
Obi Toppin


All-Stars: essentially none
Bust rate: highest of any class

Juniors (Safe… but Limited Star Upside)

All-Star hits (last 15 years):

Paul George
Gordon Hayward
Klay Thompson
Kemba Walker
Damian Lillard
(borderline future: Jalen Williams)

Pattern

Solid starter rate is good
Star rate similar to sophomores
Most teams draft this group for floor, not upside

Sophomores (Underrated Middle Ground)

Quietly strong value:

Ja Morant
Domantas Sabonis
Tyrese Haliburton

Pattern

Lower superstar rate than freshmen
Good balance of ceiling + floor

Freshmen (High Risk, Highest Ceiling)

Most All-Stars come from this group.
Examples:

Kyrie Irving
Anthony Davis
Jayson Tatum
Zion Williamson
Anthony Edwards
Paolo Banchero

Pattern

Highest superstar probability
Also plenty of busts
True boom-or-bust profile


One More Trend (Important)

The few upperclassmen stars share traits:

Elite shooting or shot creation (Lillard, Klay, McCollum, Steph)
Guard/wing skill
Not dependent on athletic dominance over younger college players

The biggest misses:

Older bigs who dominated college physically
“High-floor” prospects without elite NBA skills

[JMAC3]

One More Trend (Important)

The few upperclassmen stars share traits:

Elite shooting or shot creation (Lillard, Klay, McCollum, Steph)
Guard/wing skill
Not dependent on athletic dominance over younger college players

The biggest misses:

Older bigs who dominated college physically
“High-floor” prospects without elite NBA skills

I would say Yaxel fits more in this group of not having an Elite NBA trait and also fitting the bill of an older big who dominated college physically.

[tmorgan]

So Yaxel dominates physically now? With his “5% athleticism”?

And now he’s not a shot creating forward, even though that was his role at Michigan?

I can’t keep up with this ever changing set of standards. Go hug ChatGPT in the corner and be right in your own mind.

[Prospect Dong]

We have to go back 2 whole years to find people who were pushing Dalton Knecht as a legit top 5-7 pick option. Why? because he was never going to be a star but he was day 1 NBA ready since he was so productive in college and already so developed skill wise. It didn't matter he went to Juco and then a weak Div1 school- because he was good for 1 year at Tennessee. Sound familiar to anyone in this draft?

I mean the situation is basically the same career arc for a guy that is going to be an NBA Journeyman if he is lucky.

Yeah, ok. Because Yaxel is just like Knecht, after all. He’s clearly just a shooter.

This is such poor analysis I don’t even know where to begin, so I’ll keep it short with just one point. Saying all older guys/juco guys are going to turn out the same is no less stupid than saying all one-and-dones are going to turn out the same.

Also, since you persist with only negatives:

Mutombo. Josh Howard. Cam Johnson. Buddy Hield. Taj Gibson. — older or only a few months younger
Derrick White. Tayshaun Prince. Taurean Prince. Battier. Siakam. Brogdon. — 23 as rookies, so about a year younger.

Mutombo was 40 years ago lol.... and taking Taj Gibson 26th, Josh Howard 29th, Brogdon 36th, Tayshaun 23rd, Siakam 27th, Derick White 29th are very different than taking Yaxel top 10. Of course if you draft 200 seniors after pick 20 some are going to work out.

This isn't even Yaxel has 0% working out, but the math says the chances are lower. So going against the percentages is one thing, but then to also draft him top 10 seems like doubling down on a bad trend.

I mean, you'd be fine with getting any one of those guys with the tenth pick, right? Probably someone better gets picked after them, but probably not at 11.

I think a lot of this has to do with what we're talking about with 'top 10 pick'. I absolutely wouldn't draft Yaxel at, say, #8. You've got to shoot for star potential there, and he doesn't have that. Basically the same at #9, but maybe I'm starting to think more about team needs, fit, timeline and risk appetite. By #10 I'm comparing him to other flawed prospects unless someone fell, and then I'm wondering why that guy fell.

In this draft, #12 or #13 feels like the sweet spot for me, at least for a team that wants to win now. Bucks feel like a mistake unless they trade down. But I wouldn't' think you were crazy for disagreeing.

Are the fans and haters that far apart? Which one am I?

[Cammo101]

I'm going with Rui as my comp (final answer)

Rui had more of a mid range game in college. I think the Hornets would be a good fit for him

As far as his likely outcome at the NBA level, this comp feels solid. I don't think they are particularly similar in style of play though. Yaxel is much more of a facilitator and ball handler than Rui ever was.

[tmorgan]

I'm not hating on Yaxel here as I make another post. He is legitimately very good right now in college.

Just an example to call out on the concept of acclimation. Would be Deni Avdija. When you get enough chances in an environment, players will develop to their potential. Deni is example of this. Wizards got clowned for picking Deni, but look at him after 6 years, an all star putting up like 24/7/7.

My argument here is that many players (some countable set not everyone perhaps a few dozen if you give all college players 6 years of chances) will be succeeding like Yaxel if they got 6 years in college

There is ZERO doubt that Yaxel benefited from his age and experience, and that helped him dominate college basketball the way he did. That’s why no one with sense is projecting him as a future All-Star, because guys who do what he did at young ages are super rare, you know, like Boozer and Dybantsa. Yaxel was second in OBPM and fourth in DBPM nationally. That’s ridiculous.

And yes, there are guys well below that level that can do something like Yaxel did if they had six years to do it. But we’re not sure which guys those are, which is why Lendeborg is a nice, relatively safe bet to be a solid NBA player. Guys with his talent don’t usually take this path.

All this Knecht and the like stuff really pisses me off. Knecht was SEC player of the year shooting 458/397/772. 1.3 stocks, 5 boards, under 2 assists playing over 30 minutes a game. He was a shooter, and not even a particularly remarkable one. Decent size, good athletic testing that doesn’t really translate to anything in the floor. Absolutely nothing like Yaxel except kinda old. BPM of 11.3 to Yaxel’s 16.7. Barely 1:1 A/TO ratio, while Yaxel is nearly 3:1.

Whatever. This guy is as solid as they come. If you can’t see it, you can’t see it.