MVP Watch 2008... Part 3.

[INKtastic]

it's because the kobe guys tend to argue when people put forward anyone else as MVP. I actually had a post a couple of weeks ago asking people to make the case for Paul because I wanted to hear it. It was just as I had him falling off a bit. He's gained ground lately.

[tkb]

Schedule

Both teams play in the West and the Hornets play in the toughest division in the entire league. I have no idea where the numbers came from, but given the Hornets play San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston 12 times in total, I don't see how the Lakers can have a tougher schedule. If anything, this sounds like advantage Paul.

I said thus far. Lakers have done equally good against better competition at this point of the season. Unless you're predicting how each team finish the season out, your argument makes little sense IMO.

Supporting cast

Nah. The only player to miss significant time this year for L.A. (who actually plays significant minutes) is Bynum. Gasol will have missed a handful of games when he comes back, but I'll equate that to David West missing games for the Hornets. And, the Lakers have a deeper team than the Hornets do. This argument holds very little weight in my estimation.

It's also wrong to just look at how many games Gasol has missed because of injury, because he hasn't been a member of the Lakers for the entire season. If you're going to use the full roster against Kobe as having too much help you also have to count Gasol for missing 80% of team minutes all season long. Counting injuries, and the fact that Gasol didn't arrive before February, Paul has had more help when you look at the whole season.

Injuries

They're part of the game.

And Kobe has showed incredible will to stay out on the floor when most players wouldn't, which is a positive.

Clutch Play

The Lakers are 3-7 in games decided by 3 or less. They are 11-8 in games decided by 5 points or less.

The Hornets are 11-3 in games decided by 5 points or less. They are 6-2 in games decided by 3 or less.

I posted that Kobe has played better than Paul in clutch situations, though Paul has been good. How is this relevant as a counter-argument to that claim? Your post doesn't say anything about how the players have performed.

+/-

I don't know enough about the stat.

Fair enough, but it's still a valid argument in Kobe's case.

Defense

I can't see there being a huge difference here. Kobe is a good defender and so is Paul. I am not going to argue who is better because it is very difficult to prove. It is all about watching games.

I also didn't say the difference was big. Paul has been great, and deserves 2nd team. Kobe however is for sure 1st team this season.

Kobe beats Paul by a very considerably margin in all the defensive stats btw. He has a very big cap in on/off defensive efficiency impact, on/off defensive efg% impact and in defensive PER.

Paul's improvement this season trumps these arguments, even if you agree with TKB. (I obviously don't.) To me these arguments are grasping at straws.

For a guy who argues we shouldn't look at past seasons when we determine the MVP this argument seems strange. Funny how you think I'm grasping at straws when you're doing it yourself.

[KDRE]

it's because the kobe guys tend to argue when people put forward anyone else as MVP. I actually had a post a couple of weeks ago asking people to make the case for Paul because I wanted to hear it. It was just as I had him falling off a bit. He's gained ground lately.

Agreed. I remember that post, and I also back you up that nothing but Kobe fans have come in here proclaiming that he is by far and away the MVP and nobody else has a shot when in reality that was never the case.

[Jules Winnfield]

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How does that make any sense at all?

The MVP award is based on a player's accomplishments for that given season. Nothing more, nothing less.

The difference needs to decided based on what has transpired this season.

Right, and I've seen at least 2 posters who made the argument that ONLY this season should be taken into account, but had in previous posts used Kobe's OFFSEASON trade demands as a strike against him.

Kobe haters are so hypocritical when it comes to him.

[INKtastic]

-= original quote snipped =-
Fair enough, but it's still a valid argument in Kobe's case. (referencing +/- stats)

If you're going to use that stat, they strongly support nobody has elevated their team more than LeBron. LeBron's off court number is -12.7, Kobe's net +/- is +12.6. If LeBron was at +12.6, his on court number would be -0.1, instead it's +3.3 for a net of +18.0.

[INKtastic]

speaking of other candidates, how long does Phoenix have to keep this recent run up to get Nash back in contention?

[tkb]

Oh, of course. LeBron has been incredibly strong in that category this season. I was just talking as tie breakers between Kobe and Chris Paul.

[semi-sentient]

But not as hard as the cavs, who, without the injuries and holdouts would have a much better record and then there would be no question who the MVP is. The next game cleveland plays with their whole roster available will be their first of the season. And that's still about 2 weeks off if nobody gets hurt in the mean time.

Not as hard as the Cavs? Both teams have suffered considerable injury (or absences in general), but I'd say the Lakers have been hit harder due to the fact that they have had constant injury to their front court players.

Cavs
Snow - 45
Varejao - 34
Pavlovic - 26
Gibson - 21
Hughes - 14
Ilgauskas - 8
Lebron - 6
Gooden - 3

Lakers
Mihm - 45
Ariza - 33
Bynum - 32
Kwame - 21
Radman - 17
Vujacic - 10
Walton - 6
Odom - 5

Assuming both teams improve by the same amount of games, then Kobe still has a clear edge over LeBron in terms of games won.

PS: If I left anyone off for the Cavs that can be considered a contributor, then feel free to add them. No noticeable players jumped out at me.

[tkb]

speaking of other candidates, how long does Phoenix have to keep this recent run up to get Nash back in contention?

I think it's going to be too little too late for Nash this season. I really think one of Bryant, Paul or James has this locked up. Unless all 3 falter down the stretch, I can't see Nash winning.

I have Kobe and CP virtually tied, with LeBron close behind the two so it's going to be a very interesting finish. Nash is most likely going to be top 5 regardless, but I think top honors is a bit out of his reach right now.

[semi-sentient]

3. Injuries.
Not talking about injuries to supporting cast here. Kobe could have thrown in the towel a long time ago to rest his injuries. He's playing with a fractured finger after all and performing great.

Just to add a little more weight to that argument, here's a list of injuries that Kobe has played through this season:

October 23, 2007 - Spraigned right wrist (shooting hand) in a preseason loss to Utah, an injury that lingered for about 3 weeks.

December 4, 2007 - Played through a stomach flu in win over Minnesota, noting that Bynum sat out that game due for having the same illness.

December 14, 2007 - Injured groin in a loss to Golden State, an injury that lingered for about 4 games.

February 5, 2008 - Dislocated pinkie finger and severed ligament (shooting hand) in win over the Nets.

[TMACFORMVP]

I just don't know about LeBron, I think at least 50+ wins is needed to win an MVP and it seems unlikely with them needing to go 10-3 the rest of the way.

It's down to CP3 and Kobe for me. Both teams are tied for first place in the West and putting up fantastic stats.

If I had to give a vote, I'd give it to Paul. I think what he's done has been slightly more impressive. Nearly 22 points, 3 steals and over 11 assists per game. When was the last that's ever happened, the dude is having a HISTORIC season and his team is first place in the tough western conference.

That's as of now though and considering how close it is, Kobe can most certainly win it and an underlooked factor is Kobe has the name advantage especially being one of them to never have won an MVP. Kobe and LeBron literally own this league and should get votes just based upon that.

[eatyourchildren]

LJ4MVP:

Cavs record would be better than if they had a healthy roster, that's for sure. Nobody will dispute that.

But don't put that up as the reason why LeBron would be the runaway winner when his Strength of Schedule by season's end will be meager compared to Kobe and Co.'s

There's a big difference in playing SA, PHO, NO, HOU, UTAH, GS, DAL 4 times a year and playing BOS and DET 4 times year.

What kills most teams during the regular season is a combination of Opposing Team strength and Pacing. It's hard to pace when your back-to-backs every week are against teams separated from you by 3 games.


I imagine him having to carry the Cavs in the 4th quarter every week against 3-4 +.600 teams.

[SA37]

SA37:

1. The Tiebreaker is the numbers increase in CP? I don't agree with that. That would be penalizing Kobe for sustained excellence. The tiebreaker, if anything, should be who is the better, more complete player between the two. The answer is obvious: Kobe.

The issue is that who is the more complete player is very objective, especially since the two players play different positions.

One guy's improvement has coincided with his team's immense improvement; another guy is having a standard season for what he normally does and his team has had an immense increase in wins.

To me, you can easily attribute player 1's increase in productivity to the team winning more. Player 2 has obviously gained outside help for the increase in team wins.

If the award was 'Who is the best player in the league," then Kobe would probably win, although you'd have a strong argument from some other players. But that isn't what the award is about. If it was, the award would be called "best player in the league award."

2. Schedule: By the end of the year, the schedule will have been the same, you're right. But you misread the argument, which is that at this point in time, the Lakers to-date have had a much harder schedule than NO and has posted a similar record. That gives the edge to the Lakers up to this point in time.

Again, I am not sure what the numbers are based on and how that conclusion is made. In other words, that may be correct or incorrect. I just don't know how that conclusion came to be.

What I do know is that at the end of the season the Hornets will have had to play in the toughest division in the league. Therefore, based on other Laker fan arguments, Paul should have an edge over Bryant, in that if the records are close, then Paul should get the nod for having played in the toughest division in the NBA, right?

3. Clutch Play: TKB argued about clutch play between the two players, and you went and argued clutch play between the two teams. So, that's kind of non sequitur.

It only makes sense that if you have the best clutch player in the game that his team would have more wins in a close game, right? I mean, it seems a bit daft to try and argue someone is the best clutch player in the game and then it turns out that, in close games, his team doesn't win as often.

For the record, Kobe is an incredibly good player in the clutch and probably the most feared. But, I think that too many people are just discounting Paul because Kobe has a reputation, which is what I was representing with my statistics of the teams in close games.

4. Defense: Kobe is an elite defender, and Paul is a decent-to-good defender. That's a big difference. It's really not that difficult to prove. Kobe defends 3 positions in an elite fashion. Paul defends one position well. This is no contest. Kobe is a lock for ALL NBA D 1st Team. The same cannot be said about Paul.

Again, this cannot be proven in any way, shape, or form. You just have to watch games. To expect a 6-foot tall player to defend 3 positions is ludicrous, at best. Versatile does not equal better.

I am sorry, but people cannot sit here and complain about position and system when talking about assists and "making players better," and say Kobe is in an unfair position and then try to use the same type of argument for his defense and expect it to fly.

5. Like you said, we're looking only at the season of 2008, so why should improvement matter? If you want to argue improvement, there's another award for that: Most Improved Player. That line of reasoning also ignores Kobe's improvement in categories not captured by statistics.

Well, if improvement doesn't matter then any improvement that any Laker player has made that every Kobe supporter wants to talk about it a moot point, right?

And, there is a reason stats are kept. They tell a lot of the story.

In this case, we're not talking about a player who has improved in 2 or 3 categories. We're talking about a guy who has increased all 3 shooting percentages, assists, points, steals, and double-doubles. If you even want to pretend like you wouldn't be pointing this out if it applied to Kobe, you're more than welcome to do so.

[SA37]

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Gasol hasn't been with the Lakers the entire season, and I don't think anyone is really including him. Besides that, you are overlooking the following players who have also missed considerable time:

Mihm - 45
Ariza - 33
Radman - 17
Vujacic - 10
Walton - 6
Odom - 5

To you it may hold very little weight, but the reality is that had the Lakers not been hit with heavy injury, their record would actually be much better, and then there would be no question who the MVP is.

The time Odom, Walton, Radman, and Vujacic have missed is relatively standard. In other words, most teams incur these types of injuries.

Ariza and Mihm are barely rotation players in L.A. when healthy.

I don't see a scenario where the major injuries lead to more wins for L.A., especially when it probably negates the Gasol trade, which I think evens things out, in terms of the Bynum injury.

If his improvements are what you judge him on, then perhaps you should be lobbying for Paul to get the MIP award, since that would make more sense. Improvement from one season to the next has little or no impact on the MVP award.

His play and his team's play merit more than that. If you can't see that then I would say you're missing out...

[Bruh Man]

Ariza and Mihm are barely rotation players in L.A. when healthy.

Ariza was starting for the team before he broke his foot

[SA37]

-= original quote snipped =-
It's also wrong to just look at how many games Gasol has missed because of injury, because he hasn't been a member of the Lakers for the entire season. If you're going to use the full roster against Kobe as having too much help you also have to count Gasol for missing 80% of team minutes all season long. Counting injuries, and the fact that Gasol didn't arrive before February, Paul has had more help when you look at the whole season.

I didn't use the Laker roster to say Kobe had too much help. I haven't ever argued about Kobe having too much help. I have said I felt Paul was doing more with less and that I thought Kobe's overall team was better than Paul's overall team.

However, my point hasn't ever been, "Kobe has more help therefore he shouldn't be MVP."

My argument has always been that Paul has had a better individual season than Kobe and that separates the two in my book.

For a guy who argues we shouldn't look at past seasons when we determine the MVP this argument seems strange. Funny how you think I'm grasping at straws when you're doing it yourself.

Grasping at straws when every single argument in favor of Paul as MVP is etched in statistical stone?

Meanwhile your contention for Kobe's argument as MVP is based in things that are ambiguous and argumentative?

Kobe is having essentially the same season he had last year, statistically, yet you want everyone to just take your word and other Laker fan's word for it that the stats don't tell the whole story.

Meanwhile, Paul has the statistics and the "stats don't tell the whole story" part of the equation, but we're meant to believe that this is somehow inferior to Bryant's season, even though he has had the luxury of additions like Gasol and Fisher, and the improvements of Bynum?

[SA37]

Ariza and Mihm are barely rotation players in L.A. when healthy.

Ariza was starting for the team before he broke his foot

Bollocks. He started 3 out of 24 games.

[INKtastic]

PS: If I left anyone off for the Cavs that can be considered a contributor, then feel free to add them. No noticeable players jumped out at me.

You left off Donyell Marshall, who effectively was gone the whole season and then was traded.

And I'd say take Snow off the cavs list and Kwame off the Lakers list. From what I saw, neither guy was very effective when playing this year.

And I think you have to look at depth as well as missed games. Until the recent trade, the cavs had little depth. The trade brought in it's own issues as with that many guys moving, there is a transition period to get guys working together. 3 core guys went out, 4 new core guys came in.

[INKtastic]

Snow can defend too, but his lack of production on the other end makes him a net negative, as was kwame (from what I saw).

[INKtastic]

he was getting booed off the court by his home crowd and looked completely clueless out there. The team started winning again when he got traded before Gasol even played his first game.

There was a thread on the lakers board about Kwame shortly before he was traded. Here are some quotes

He's inept on the offensive end, save for wide open dunks and such.

Kwame is a nice defender, but that's pretty much it.

Phil gambled on Kwame and lost

His court awareness is horrible

He's basically is garbage out there

So why not be fair about it - I threw out Snow's missed games as being a non factor in cleveland, don't try to build up kwame just so you can list his missed games as meaning something when the reality is Kwame being out is a net positive for LA.

The team has better players to play those minutes. Kwame was the 2nd worst player on the team and the stats back that up

PER 11.2, Opponent's PER 16.4, net -5.2
On court -4.4, off court +7.7, net -13.5

The worst player? Mihm, who somehow was worse than Kwame. Much better off with Odom and Turiaf in the front court than Kwame or Mihm. One reason losing Bynum hurt them was it meant more playing time for Kwame.