MVP Watch 2008... Part 5

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Post#1061 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Apr 16, 2008 1:56 pm

Bgil wrote:
RobertGlory wrote:you're talking +/- as if chris paul and kobe bryant are involved in EVERY SINGLE PLAY on the floor

the box score stats are relevant because they measure what players actually DO.

CP dumps the ball into David West who posts up Odom or Bynum and drops in a fadeaway jumper. Did CP or Kobe really impact the play?????? No but it counts for or against both of them with +/-.

That's countered by measuring the difference between a player and his teammates. Since Chris Paul didn't cause the play then David West should still be able to produce it when Paul is not on the floor. That's accounted for when looking at +/- and on/off stats. 82 games covers this kind of thing regularly.

It's is also possible that Kobe dumps the ball into Gasol and it results in a similar jumper. Kobe could impact the play (in a unique way) because the defense does not double Gasol when Kobe is in the game. That is accounted for in +/- and on/off because we'd see that Gasol shoots a higher percentage (plays better ) with Kobe on the floor than off the floor.

Fast foward to about 8:15 in this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cLcLVYcE3U

Kobe has the ball, Chris Paul (stupidly) leaves Fisher to double Kobe. Kobe makes the pass to a wide open Fisher as Chandler (who was guarding Gasol) wisely rotates out to him. Gasol, with no one on him, gets deep position in the paint. Fisher delivers the easy pass to the open guy sitting next to the hoop. Box score only gives credit to fisher (assist) and Gasol (2pts) while Kobe got nothing for actually creating the shot. Just him being on the floor with the ball created the easy bucket.
Recorded by +/- not by the box score.

More importantly, without going over the game footage, it's impossible to understand why Gasol's basket happened or why Kobe even attempting to create a box score stat by forcing a pass, spliting the double team, or jacking up a shot (which he might make) is not the correct decision. The correct decision was the one that gave the box score stats to someone else.

Likewise:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38DOBtl2 ... re=related

This play does not happen without Kobe, period. But he gets no assist or other offensive box score stat (he may get the steal there though).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6lrXawIYhA
Kobe draws multiple defenders and makes a great pass to Radman right under the hoop. Defense fouls to stop the easy basket. Ultimately Radman gets two freethrows and the team gets two points. Kobe gets nothing in the box score.

+/- isn't perfect but if you adjust it and compare it in context (to who's in the game, who's not, etc) then it easily becomes the best stat for impact and production. It's also clearly the best stat for defense.


Good points. I will say though that I don't advocate for +/- instead of box score stats, but rather along side them.
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Post#1062 » by Bgil » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:16 pm

SA37 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Is there anything you won
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Post#1063 » by eatyourchildren » Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:46 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Good points. I will say though that I don't advocate for +/- instead of box score stats, but rather along side them.


Good analysis BGil. I agree with Doc MJ, you look at both of them, and try to figure out how that relates to the actual gameplay.

Otherwise, you start to think that Larry Hughes is a good defender because he led the league in steals.

Contrary to what ILiketheGrizz and his minority views on defense (of it not being half the game of basketball), it's like the gunner at the Y who doesn't play a lick of defense. He's giving up more than he puts in. +/- is the NET production stat.
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Post#1064 » by KDRE » Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:51 pm

Bgil wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
If believing Phil Jackson and Tex when they say it was Kobe's idea = drinking kool-aid and homerism then I'm perfectly fine with that. You're just a hater anyway.


Phil on the Dan Patrick show a minute ago and didn't say it was Kobe that made his teammates better.

He was just on the Dan Patrick show so you can check his website for the interview.
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Post#1065 » by eatyourchildren » Wed Apr 16, 2008 3:53 pm

DimeMag wrote:The Lakers win locked the Hornets into the #2 seed, and N.O. also clinched the Southwest Division by blowing out the Clippers. David West scored 20 points in the first quarter and finished with 32, and guess what? Aside from a post move here and there and one putback, the rest of West
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Post#1066 » by ILikeTheGrizz » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:14 pm

Bgil wrote:It's pretty naive to think there are many many many people here on this forum more qualified to dissect the game than Phil Jackson... possibly the greatest coach in the league. Or any NBA coach for that matter. Or even a college coach.


It's pretty ignorant to think that's what I said.

I believe there are many, many, many people more qualified to compare Kobe Bryant and LeBron James this season than Phil Jackson or any other coach.


That's what I said. I don't doubt he can dissect a basketball game better than you- I'm sure he can do a great many things better than you. I doubt he can breakdown individual players versus individual players better than many (not including you)- not because he lacks the ability but because he lacks the motivation. His job is about analyzing other teams and breaking them down according to his teams strengths and weaknesses. He's not poring over game footage trying to ascertain who out of two inidvidual players is better, and I think it's naive of you to think he is.

At least get my **** argument right if you want to disagree with it. And while you're trying to look like a basketball guru, keep pimping that John Salley quote. :rofl:

And a nice segue into getting arguments right.

eatyourchildren wrote:Contrary to what ILiketheGrizz and his minority views on defense (of it not being half the game of basketball)


Do you not know my argument or you can't understand it? Which is it? Individual defense is not as important as individual offense in basketball. That's my view and minority or not, it doesn't make it wrong. A great defender can never consistently lock down a great offensive player, but a great offensive player can more consistently get his on a great defender- this is a fact. So it stands to reason that if you could only be great at one of those and average at the other, it would be much better to be great at offense and decent on defense than it would to be great on defense and average on offense, all other things being equal. Obviously, if it's better to be one great at one thing than it is to be great at another, those two things aren't equal. Now I only did up to calculus in school because I hate math, but correct me if I'm wrong: If there's only two pieces of a pie, and they're not equal, they can't both be 50% of the total pie, can they? Hmmm. Get back to me when you finish your degree, maybe.

For a guy who loves to tell everyone how smart he is and how close he is to such-and-such degree and such-and-such job you sure aren't very good at following a conversation, are you?
eatyourchildren wrote: BTW, PER is also as good a stat as PPG
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Post#1067 » by HarlemHeat37 » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:39 pm

Kobe Bryant- MVP..he finally deserves it..
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Post#1068 » by Bgil » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:49 pm

That's what I said. I don't doubt he can dissect a basketball game better than you- I'm sure he can do a great many things better than you. I doubt he can breakdown individual players versus individual players better than many (not including you)- not because he lacks the ability but because he lacks the motivation. His job is about analyzing other teams and breaking them down according to his teams strengths and weaknesses. He's not poring over game footage trying to ascertain who out of two inidvidual players is better, and I think it's naive of you to think he is.


Players are part of that team. In many instances, like with Lebron, knowing a lot about him specifically makes for better team strategy. Not to mention that he has to coach several athletes on how to guard and attack Lebron. It's one thing if we're talking about some dude at the end of the bench but Lebron is their team. How he performs is how the team performs. Not paying specific attention to him is stupid especially since he has the ball so much and is responsible for so much of their offense.

You realize they do enough player analysis (strengths, weaknesses, tendencies, mental profiles etc.) to write a novel on it, right? I used to make videos that players and coaches would watch. I'd recieve an order detailing what someone wanted on video and another group of people would provide the written and statistical analysis of it. We'd deliver it as a package with DVD's and the whole nine.
They know how many times a guy drives left vs right, how many times he pump fakes driving left vs when driving right, whether he shoots worse when you block his vision or attack his release.
An example:
One of the videos I had to make was of a certain former McDonalds All-American that now stars for the Denver Nuggets. It consisted entirely of him driving left to shoot right. Over and over. In slow motion. From different angles. Against different types of defensive pressure.

So yeah, I know for a fact that they have, request, and review such information.

Where's proof of your ability to break down video? Or even your analysis of it? You surely aren't providing it on this forum. Where's your evaluation of Kobe vs Lebron for the world to see? Which part of that analysis is something that you know that Phil Jackson doesn't?

Again, can you even explain how the Lakers or Cavs offense actually works? What reads are to be made, what options are to be considered? Can you describe the elements of Lebron's shot release? Or any technical part of his game? What about the angles he takes against penetration defensively? Or his reads (within CLE's defensive concept) in regards to help defense?

Anything? You didn't answer a single question last time and I'm pretty sure you can't without some very heavy Googling. Again, what knowledge do you (or anyone else you refer to) have, specifically, that makes you better at deciphering game footage of an individual player? What makes you better at judging these skills than a coach or trainer that actually is responsible for teaching those skills to these athletes?

I'm fairly certain you're not going to answer any of these questions so you can continue to live in your fantasy world of being more of an expert than, ya know, the experts.
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Post#1069 » by ILikeTheGrizz » Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:58 pm

Players are part of that team. However, they're aren't enough hours in the day for one person to do all that breaking down themselves, especially considering they have 29 other teams to be concerned with. I work in intelligence analysis. I know that the people have very limited scope responsibilites are extremely well-versed in their arena. The further up you go in the food chain, the less well-versed people are in specifics. Someone down low could know virtually everything about a certain faction of HAMAS. I guarantee you Condolezza Rice does not know as much about it.

You never answered my question. If someone was so excellent at judging which players are better than others, why wouldn't they be involved in the front office instead of on the bench where their job is to maximize the talents they already have? Well, I'll tell you why: Their job doesn't revolve around judging players against each other, it's not why they're there. Their job revolves around using the players they have against the other teams players. It revolves around motivating their team to maximize their potential. It does not place a high priority in deciding who's better between Peja and SJax. Again, I don't doubt that Phil Jackson could sit down for a few days and crunch all the numbers and all the footage on two players- I doubt that he does.

Your continuing appeals to authority is tiresome. What did you think about Popovich saying that "clearly" Duncan was the best player in the NBA in 02-03. Do you agree? What about the Timberwolves trading Foye for Gay? Or the Bulls trading Brand for Chandler? Do you agree with those moves? No? Does that mean you're telling me you're more of an expert than, ya know, the experts? Please.

Is John Salley an 'expert'? You continue to base your opinion on whatever person close the NBA agrees with you and ignore those that do not. You play the 'expert' card for some and not for others. I'm sure Alan Greenspan can balance your budget much more effectively than you can- that doesn't mean he actually does know more about your budget, because he has no motivation to. Just as Phil Jackson can probably give us a great rundown of Kobe versus LeBron but has to motivation to do so.

It's not like Jackson has ever been known as a good X's and O's guy anyway. His great coaching comes from things like ego control and motivational practices. But you had to have known that. Tell me more about how John Salley knows more than anyone here so his opinion must be right. I'm dying to hear.
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Post#1070 » by eatyourchildren » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:09 pm

LOL at the notion that Phil Jackson is not a great X's and O's coach because that's not what he's known for. What, you think he directs players in the triangle through zen?

I'm done with this Grizz guy--he's been beat up by people in this thread aside from me (Doc MJ on the +/- arguments, Yaya Banana on the appeal to authority arguments, BGil on the box score arguments) and he's arguing just to argue at this point. No substance, just trying now to convince us that NBA level coaches don't know the intricacies of superstar players' games enough to be able to judge them against each other. OK.
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Post#1071 » by ILikeTheGrizz » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:13 pm

:lol: OK.
eatyourchildren wrote: BTW, PER is also as good a stat as PPG
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Post#1072 » by yaya banana » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:15 pm

ILikeTheGrizz wrote:Players are part of that team. However, they're aren't enough hours in the day for one person to do all that breaking down themselves, especially considering they have 29 other teams to be concerned with. I work in intelligence analysis. I know that the people have very limited scope responsibilites are extremely well-versed in their arena. The further up you go in the food chain, the less well-versed people are in specifics. Someone down low could know virtually everything about a certain faction of HAMAS. I guarantee you Condolezza Rice does not know as much about it.

You never answered my question. If someone was so excellent at judging which players are better than others, why wouldn't they be involved in the front office instead of on the bench where their job is to maximize the talents they already have? Well, I'll tell you why: Their job doesn't revolve around judging players against each other, it's not why they're there. Their job revolves around using the players they have against the other teams players. It revolves around motivating their team to maximize their potential. It does not place a high priority in deciding who's better between Peja and SJax. Again, I don't doubt that Phil Jackson could sit down for a few days and crunch all the numbers and all the footage on two players- I doubt that he does.

Your continuing appeals to authority is tiresome. What did you think about Popovich saying that "clearly" Duncan was the best player in the NBA in 02-03. Do you agree? What about the Timberwolves trading Foye for Gay? Or the Bulls trading Brand for Chandler? Do you agree with those moves? No? Does that mean you're telling me you're more of an expert than, ya know, the experts? Please.

Is John Salley an 'expert'? You continue to base your opinion on whatever person close the NBA agrees with you and ignore those that do not. You play the 'expert' card for some and not for others. I'm sure Alan Greenspan can balance your budget much more effectively than you can- that doesn't mean he actually does know more about your budget, because he has no motivation to. Just as Phil Jackson can probably give us a great rundown of Kobe versus LeBron but has to motivation to do so.

It's not like Jackson has ever been known as a good X's and O's guy anyway. His great coaching comes from things like ego control and motivational practices. But you had to have known that. Tell me more about how John Salley knows more than anyone here so his opinion must be right. I'm dying to hear.


I said that I would cease on this topic so I'll limit myself to a snide meta-comment. It's always possible to come up with increasingly obtuse arguments in a debate where there is no moderating authority. However, at some threshold, it is up to the debater to make a good faith effort to refrain from damaging the conversation. I'd say that, in claiming that NBA coaches will not be sufficiently well informed of the merits of one top player versus another, that threshold has long been crossed.
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Post#1073 » by tracey_nice » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:17 pm

eatyourchildren wrote:LOL at the notion that Phil Jackson is not a great X's and O's coach because that's not what he's known for. What, you think he directs players in the triangle through zen?

I'm done with this Grizz guy--he's been beat up by people in this thread aside from me (Doc MJ on the +/- arguments, Yaya Banana on the appeal to authority arguments, BGil on the box score arguments) and he's arguing just to argue at this point. No substance, just trying now to convince us that NBA level coaches don't know the intricacies of superstar players' games enough to be able to judge them against each other. OK.

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Post#1074 » by ILikeTheGrizz » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:20 pm

Uh oh! I got the Kobe Kidz after me! yaya, Jules, whatever, I'd advise you to actually look at tsherkin's, J Geils', or TrueLaFan's posts and read about Theo Epstein, a baseball outsider, before you, like so many others, jump to the conclusion that NBA insiders have a wealth of knowledge and understanding that no mere human can hope to attain.

I still don't understand why, if their knowlegde is so esoterically untenable to us average folks, their opinions so often jobe with our own analysis, and they disagree with each other on much the same points we do. Hmmm. Must just be a huge coincidence. Because we can't hope to ever have the understanding they do.

It's ignorant and self-defeating. You're better than that, kid. Or you're just a joke (a la Bgil and his expert analysis that says Kobe is better than Jordan). I don't know you well enough.
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Post#1075 » by Big Bird » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:30 pm

HarlemHeat37 wrote:Kobe Bryant- MVP..he finally deserves it..


I know I've not been an active member for a long time (more of a passive observer for 4 or 5 years), but wow, he must be doing something right when even a critic like yourself thinks he deserves it. Props for posting this, man. :clap:
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Post#1076 » by Bgil » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:48 pm

Players are part of that team. However, they're aren't enough hours in the day for one person to do all that breaking down themselves, especially considering they have 29 other teams to be concerned with. I work in intelligence analysis. I know that the people have very limited scope responsibilites are extremely well-versed in their arena. The further up you go in the food chain, the less well-versed people are in specifics. Someone down low could know virtually everything about a certain faction of HAMAS. I guarantee you Condolezza Rice does not know as much about it.


I guarantee you she knows more about it than a slew of random people posting on an internet forum.

I guarantee you Phil Jackson looks at 5 minutes of game footage and sees dozens of things you don't. I also guarantee that he can look at that footage and explain EXACTLY what's going on in several orders of magnitude more detail than you can.

You never answered my question.

you've answered zero of mine.

If someone was so excellent at judging which players are better than others, why wouldn't they be involved in the front office instead of on the bench where their job is to maximize the talents they already have? Well, I'll tell you why: Their job doesn't revolve around judging players against each other, it's not why they're there. Their job revolves around using the players they have against the other teams players.


1. What makes you think Phil Jackson isn't involved in front office decisions? Phil's books, and numerous comments by management show that he certain is involved. Even the makeup of the team's players fit a "Phil Jackson mold".
2. He's the coach because he's awesome at it. One of the best ever. Logically, that doesn't have any bearing on whether or not he'd be good in the front office. Your logic fails.

It does not place a high priority in deciding who's better between Peja and SJax. Again, I don't doubt that Phil Jackson could sit down for a few days and crunch all the numbers and all the footage on two players- I doubt that he does.


Again, you clearly haven't done it.
PJ has a library of information of those two players you don't have. Given the importance of Peja to our championship aspirations (remember he played for the Kings) I'm sure he knows his game inside and out. Since he's drawn up numerous game plans against Steven Jackson I'm sure he knows his game inside and out too. Before every game featuring either player he's given the individual scouting reports.
It should go without saying that he's more apt to make that comparison on a moments notice than you are. Again, what can you say about Peja or Jackson that he doesn't know. You keep saying you're more qualified and you know more but you refuse to elaborate.
Enough about what you think he does or doesn't have or do. WHAT INFORMATION DO YOU HAVE that's so noteworthy.
Just provide some detailed analysis and show us what's up. Why is that so hard given the claims you've made?

Is John Salley an 'expert'? You continue to base your opinion on whatever person close the NBA agrees with you and ignore those that do not. You play the 'expert' card for some and not for others.


Why wouldn't he be given the time he spent with both guys, the hundreds of practice sessions spent with both guys, the hundreds of games playing with/against both guys, and his knowledge of the game that far exceeds your own. You're mistaking the funny-man character he plays on an entertainment show for lack of knowledge.

Besides, T-Mac is certainly an expert on the subject of T-Mac and you tried to trash his opinion too.

For the record, you're misrepresenting my argument again in order to avoid the stupid comment you made. Believing Kobe was the best player in 2002-2003 is not ridiculous. Neither is believing Duncan was the best player. I don't think it's true. But it's certainly not ridiculous. Unlike you I didn't claim it was a ridiculous belief so I have no problem taking Pop's beliefs.

I made my own separate argument... which you used logistical gymnastics regarding defense vs offense to attack.


It's not like Jackson has ever been known as a good X's and O's guy anyway


Better than you or anyone on this forum. I bet he could answer the questions I posed and you can't.

I'm sure Alan Greenspan can balance your budget much more effectively than you can- that doesn't mean he actually does know more about your budget, because he has no motivation to. Just as Phil Jackson can probably give us a great rundown of Kobe versus LeBron but has to motivation to do so.


Greenspan doesn't recieve a detailed writeup about my budget twice a year. Phil Jackson does on Lebron. Greenspan doesn't review several hours of video on my spending habits and tendecies, Jackson does for Lebron. Greenspan has never created a gameplan specifically made to hinder my budget, Jackson has for Lebron's game. Greenspan doesn't have assistant coaches getting paid to watch and scout me as Jackson does for Lebron and the Cavs. Greenspan and I may never even be in the same building together much less meet and compete against each other (listening to his long ass book now though), Lebron and Phil Jackson well... they've been there and done that for 4 years now.

Do you not know my argument or you can't understand it? Which is it? Individual defense is not as important as individual offense in basketball. That's my view and minority or not, it doesn't make it wrong.... [some snipped logical bs]...If there's only two pieces of a pie, and they're not equal, they can't both be 50% of the total pie, can they? Hmmm. Get back to me when you finish your degree, maybe.


You know Kobe is elite at both, right?
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Post#1077 » by Bgil » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:53 pm

I think it's time for me to be done with this guy too. Ok, grizz.. I'm dropping this topic with you. Feel free to respond to my last post but I will not debate it with you anymore.
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Post#1078 » by yaya banana » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:55 pm

I guess it was inevitable that I'd get sucked in again.

ILikeTheGrizz wrote:Uh oh! I got the Kobe Kidz after me! yaya, Jules, whatever, I'd advise you to actually look at tsherkin's, J Geils', or TrueLaFan's posts and read about Theo Epstein, a baseball outsider, before you, like so many others, jump to the conclusion that NBA insiders have a wealth of knowledge and understanding that no mere human can hope to attain.


Are you accusing me of being Jules Winnfield? Good catch.

I'm familiar with TrueLAfan's posts. I agree that I'd defer to his knowledge on the subject. Your point about Theo Epstein is bizarre. Based on your previous posts, you seem to be claiming that his prior inexperience would imply that he would not be well-informed after he obtained the job, despite the wealth of manpower and technology he has at his disposal to gether and analyze information and the strong incentives for him to make use of these resources in order to make better personnel decisions. You seem to subscribe to a theory of learning that I can't quite fathom.

I still don't understand why, if their knowlegde is so esoterically untenable to us average folks, their opinions so often jobe with our own analysis, and they disagree with each other on much the same points we do. Hmmm. Must just be a huge coincidence. Because we can't hope to ever have the understanding they do.


First, i think one of the points made is that opinions of experts tend to be reasonably homogenous on this issue.
However, lets just play along.
Thinking of this as a statistical inference problem - we have observable variables and non-observables which are substantially endogenous (ie correlated with the observables). We also have experts with noisy signals about the nonobservables. It is then not surprising that we get:
i) correlation between our opinions and expert opinions in aggregate - and correlation in variance across issues.
ii) heterogeneity amongst expert opinions (although this does not seem to be the case for the issue at hand)
iii) homogeneity in non-expert opinions (given that we see the same observables)
However, this is still consistent with the claim that expert opinions are substantially informative.
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Post#1079 » by Andrew Bynasty » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:58 pm

Why does anyone even respond to ILikeTheGrizz anymore?

Its pointless and trivial.
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Post#1080 » by yaya banana » Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:59 pm

Andrew Bynasty wrote:Why does anyone even respond to ILikeTheGrizz anymore?

Its pointless and trivial.


Why am I posting on some basketball forum when I have work to do? Sometimes people just do crazy things. I'll try to resist in the future, i guess.

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