Gilbert takes cut, to sign for 6 year,111 million (pg 14)

[nate33]

Arenas will earn around $14.5 million next season and can opt out of the contract after the fourth season (2011-12). The Wizards, who signed point guard Dee Brown to a partially guaranteed two-year contract this week, have around $1.5 million remaining under the luxury tax threshold ($71.15 million) and could add another player via free agency.

My math says that Arenas signed a contract starting at just over $14.65M assuming he took the minimum possible salary in his first season.

The details of Dee Brown's contract haven't been released. The minimum salary for a player with one year of experience is $712K. 2-years ago, Utah signed him to a contract that would have paid him $745K in his 3rd season. I read somewhere that we had to pay him more than the vet minimum because Utah had his rights. So we're probably paying him just over $745K. However, if Ivan is right in that we have just $1.5M in luxtax room left, it would mean we are paying him $1.4M. I find that hard to believe.

Assuming Brown signed for something like $900K, and Arenas signed for $14.65M, my numbers say that we have just over $2.0M in luxtax room. That's not enough for a worthwhile free agent.

What puzzles me is EG's rationale for structuring Arenas' contract the way he did. If he knew full well that we would lack the room to go after a serious free agent, then he should have front-loaded Arenas' salary as much as possible this year to put us right up against the luxtax (or maybe leaving enough room for exactly one vet-minimum free agent). Any additional money going to Arenas this year would get subtracted from his money next year. Any money saved next year would effectively be doubled because we're in the luxury tax next year.

This leads me to believe that EG still wants to make a move. Either he plans on signing a $2M free agent (which I doubt because word is we only want to carry 14 players), he is looking into making a trade where we take back more salary, or he is planning to exceed the luxtax. If neither happens, than EG has made a mistake in the way he structured Arenas' contract.

The best thing to have done would have been to wait until the end of the offseason to sign Arenas. EG would then have known exactly how much money he had committed so he could have frontloaded Arenas with whatever was left.

WizKev? Jmrosenth? Do either of you still have contacts within the organization that would let you know the exact salary numbers for the players? Right now, I'm having to make a few assumptions on Arenas, Jamison, McGee and Brown.

[Wiz99]

congratulations to gil. i especially like this quote..

"I think with the players we have on this roster, we can compete with anyone in the NBA and I look forward to returning to the court next season on a mission to deliver a championship banner to Washington D.C."
link

look forward to a strong start to the upcoming seaason.

Words are cheap.

I'll wait to see the outcome of the Wizards Continuity Plan (resign Gil and AJ, keep EJ, make no major free agent signings or trades). I'm dubious since it doesn't address our major issues, which is upping the quality of our defense dramatically, and having an offensive system that goes beyond "weave and heave + give it to Gil on an iso", neither of which are dependable ways to win in the post season.

50+ wins and ECF or the first move is Jordan gets fired. At the same time, management ought to have a private talk with Gil that he needs to become a leader, not just king of his own quirky little Agent Zero world, but a guy that leads by example on both ends. He's got the skills. The deficit is mental (so far).

[Macker]

I'm not sure where else to put this but...

http://www.nbadraft.net/mcchesney005.html

It's basically a study out to prove once and for all how badly you need Superstar, top 3-5 players in the league talent to win NBA championships, not just a bunch of All-Stars or good players.

"76. Gilbert Arenas 11 + 8 + 0 = 19 / 5 = 3.8"

The list only goes to 80, but I still think you all should know that we CAN win a championship with Gil, according to this article. So, hurrah.

Now that Gil's officially signed, I can't help but wonder how history will look back on him. An all time great who treated his city to trophies? Or an amazingly talented man who tantalized the fans, but never delivered a ring? The article Spaceman links to gives a great insight.

Basically, the guy starts with the premise that "the basis for winning an NBA title is having a superstar in his prime" and then he tries to ID which players in the past 50 years fit the profile of "a superstar" that you can win a 'chip with. He assigns points to players according to his own system, based on votes for MVP, all nba, all defensive teams and defensive player of the year.

His system pops out 80 guys since 1956. Gil is #73. However, a few grains of salt are due. His list naturally falls into 3 sublists, of guys who were and are true superstars their whole career (he calls them Gold Medal Superstars), those who were great for several seasons but then merely very good for the rest of their years (Silver), and then a third tier who ere top 15 players in the league, but never among the best (Bronze).

Gil falls into the last tier, near the end of the list of 80 great players since 1956, in the "Bronze" level. Does that mean we can win a championship with Gil? I think his peers on the list tell us five ways Gils career could go: Kevin McHale, Chauncey Billups, Dwight Howard, Bernard King and Afernee Hardaway. Gil could turn out to be any one of these guys.

Take McHale. He's a Hall of Famer. He put up some ungodly numbers for a big chunk of his career with the Celts - take 1986: 26 and 10, a year sandwiched in the middle of 6 others. Yet few people would argue the Celts win 3 championships with just McHale. Without Bird, arguably they would have won none. The 76ers with Dr. J, Moses Malone, a young Barkley AND a wise-old Mo Cheeks almost certainly would have surpassed the Bird-less Celts. By all rights, the 76ers were STACKED and should have been the Celts. The moral: there are Bronze medal stars (McHale) and then there are Gold medal stars (Bird). So far, Gil is a C list star who has not elevated his team to greatness. But maybe Gil doesn't have to be a Bird- or MJ-level talent for us to win a 'chip.

Now take Billups. No one would put him in the same crew as MJ, Bird et al. But he's got a trophy. Mainly because his management put a great set of players around him - Rasheed, Wallace, Prince, Rip, Okur, Big Nasty, even guys like Elden Campbell, Mike James and Chucky Atkins who could really ball in a pinch. A pretty easy path to the Finals (the East was at its nadir in 03-04, with Indiana the Piston's only legit competition). Got lucky with the Shaq-Kobe-Payton-Malone Lakers basically bickering themselves into losing the Finals. And a great, great coach in Larry Brown (who replaced a guy who is nearly as good but probably the most underrated coach in the league, Rick Carlisle). The moral of THIS story? A Bronze level star like Billups can still bring a ring to his hometown, if all the stars align with his running mates, the coach, players committing to the coach's system, and getting the breaks with the competition.

Fine, so what about Dwight Howard. Howard seems like he could easily become an A level superstar, he just hasn't had enough years in the league. I mean, hell, the guy finished his 4th NBA season and just turned 23 while averaging 22 and 10 with 2+ blocks. Those are stats Hakeem and Ewing put up at the same age. How's this like our little man Gil? Maybe he too just needs a bit more time to elevate to all time superstar status. Example: John Stockton, who's greatness didn't blossom until he had several seasons of starter's minutes. Gil has been in the league 7 seasons, but he's only had 3 seasons where he was getting starter's minutes (playing more than 3000 minutes in a season, or 36 mpg). And in his last season for the injury, Gil was approaching star status. In other words, Gil hasn't even reached his prime yet (?)

But what about that knee... I hate to mention him, but here he is. Anfernee Hardaway. Who was incredible for three years before he injured his knees. He was Shaq's right hand man the two years the Magic won 1st in the East, averaging 21 ppg and 7 dimes and 4 boards. I hate to say it, but there's also a possibility Gil goes this way, like Anfernee, his great physical gifts burn bright for a few brilliant years, but tragically get cut short by that merciless thief, injury. All the news says Gil and his knees are back, but he HAS had two surgeries on them in the past year.

But what honestly worries me more is Gil could end up like Bernard King. BK was a prolific scorer who averaged 23 ppg over a 16 year career, even throwing down 28.4 ppg and an all star appearance for Les Wiz at age 34. Everyone at the time agreed there was no one better at scoring. But they also agreed Bernard King did little else. Because of this, BK's teams always had a chance to win any single game if he got hot, but had little chance of grinding out a 7 game series in the playoffs. Bernard only made it out of the 1st round 2x in his career. Gil is in danger of earning the same MO as Bernard King: great scorer who's teams go nowhere in the playoffs.

Gil, I'm dying to know which way your career goes from here. To all time greatness and we all have the privilege of riding your coattails to several trophies? To good enough that if Grunfeld gets your supporting cast and coach right, we have a really good shot? Or simply entertaining as hell to watch, but fatally flawed and leading teams that are equally fun to follow which lack that certain something champions use to fight past their peers?

Wither Gil, the Wiz, and we fans?

This is a really fascinating read, Wiz99.

Your warning is really scary that Gil could have a career like Bernard King -- one of the league's great scorers, never takes his team deep into the playoffs. But isn't that the same thing you're saying about Kevin McHale?

Hopefully, Gil just gets better, like your Stockton example. I didn't know Gil's only had 3 years in the NBA with big minutes played. So maybe there IS hope that Gil can still grow into a transcendent star.

[Ruzious]

Arenas will earn around $14.5 million next season and can opt out of the contract after the fourth season (2011-12). The Wizards, who signed point guard Dee Brown to a partially guaranteed two-year contract this week, have around $1.5 million remaining under the luxury tax threshold ($71.15 million) and could add another player via free agency.

My math says that Arenas signed a contract starting at just over $14.65M assuming he took the minimum possible salary in his first season.

The details of Dee Brown's contract haven't been released. The minimum salary for a player with one year of experience is $712K. 2-years ago, Utah signed him to a contract that would have paid him $745K in his 3rd season. I read somewhere that we had to pay him more than the vet minimum because Utah had his rights. So we're probably paying him just over $745K. However, if Ivan is right in that we have just $1.5M in luxtax room left, it would mean we are paying him $1.4M. I find that hard to believe.

Assuming Brown signed for something like $900K, and Arenas signed for $14.65M, my numbers say that we have just over $2.0M in luxtax room. That's not enough for a worthwhile free agent.

What puzzles me is EG's rationale for structuring Arenas' contract the way he did. If he knew full well that we would lack the room to go after a serious free agent, then he should have front-loaded Arenas' salary as much as possible this year to put us right up against the luxtax (or maybe leaving enough room for exactly one vet-minimum free agent). Any additional money going to Arenas this year would get subtracted from his money next year. Any money saved next year would effectively be doubled because we're in the luxury tax next year.

This leads me to believe that EG still wants to make a move. Either he plans on signing a $2M free agent (which I doubt because word is we only want to carry 14 players), he is looking into making a trade where we take back more salary, or he is planning to exceed the luxtax. If neither happens, than EG has made a mistake in the way he structured Arenas' contract.

The best thing to have done would have been to wait until the end of the offseason to sign Arenas. EG would then have known exactly how much money he had committed so he could have frontloaded Arenas with whatever was left.

WizKev? Jmrosenth? Do either of you still have contacts within the organization that would let you know the exact salary numbers for the players? Right now, I'm having to make a few assumptions on Arenas, Jamison, McGee and Brown.

I think you take too much of a chance if you don't keep some cushion against the lux tax. The Wiz learned that last year. And you never know when a move might become available that would cost a little extra in lux tax space. Having a cushion could make a heckuvalotto difference, and 2 mil is a very small cushion.

[LyricalRico]

^ Agreed. We need to be able to sign somebody midseason in case of injury. We also need to have some breathing room when it comes to trades. I think Grunfeld did the right thing.

[nate33]

^ Agreed. We need to be able to sign somebody midseason in case of injury. We also need to have some breathing room when it comes to trades. I think Grunfeld did the right thing.

I agree with the cushion comment. It would make sense to leave $800K in luxtax room because that would enable us to sign somebody to a veteran minimum contract. (Once you prorate it, it would actually be less than $800K). But that said, there isn't any reason to leave any more than $800K because nobody signs free agents in the middle of the season to $2M contracts. Free agents good enough to earn $2M don't get passed up in the preseason (barring unusual P.J. Brown style "retirements").

And with a Dee Brown already signed, we are essentially 3-deep at every position. It would take two injuries at the same position for us to need a mid-season signing. Chances are, we won't be signing anybody at all. Heck, we can free up some money in a pinch by cutting Dee Brown. His contract isn't guaranteed until January.

You make a good poing about the trade issue. I suppose it's possible that EG is planning to keep enough room to account for Etan's trade kicker if we trade him for an expiring. Etan's contract is $6.8M. His trade kicker is an extra $1.1M. The returning expiring contract would have to be between $6.3M and $8.5M for a trade to work under the 125% rule after accounting for his trade kicker. If EG keeps $1.7M of room available, he's got it covered.

[Rafael122]

Just read here that Gil has an opt out clause after the 4th year? Not another contract with a player option...

[Benjammin]

Just read here that Gil has an opt out clause after the 4th year? Not another contract with a player option...

Yeah, I wasn't exactly thrilled to see that either. Those player options can be very messy and sticky things...

[Rafael122]

Well yeah, plus the player basically has the franchise by the balls.

He's given player options to Stevenson, Songaila, Etan, and now Gilbert.

[nate33]

I don't mind the player option that much. By then, Arenas will be earning roughly the maximum salary so he'd have to take a pay cut to switch teams.

[Benjammin]

I don't see the benefit or need to give Gil a team option after four years with the coin he is getting. However, it's good for him because it gives him leverage if things aren't going the way he thinks it should.

[Wiz99]

I don't see the benefit or need to give Gil a team option after four years with the coin he is getting. However, it's good for him because it gives him leverage if things aren't going the way he thinks it should.

One thing that player option clause does is put a time limit on how long Eddie Jordan can be coach. Basically, he's got a MAXIMUM of 3 more years to turn this squad into championship contenders, or Gil can walk and search for a better situation. Realistically, Jordan has ONE year to make a big change with this team. If the Wiz put up another year of ""barely above .500 and out in the first round", then it puts a lot of pressure on Grunfeld and Ole Abe to fire Jordan immediately. That way the next coach gets two years to make his mark before Gil's option year arrives.

And I think its a credible threat. Gil must already know leaving the Wiz at that point would involve taking a paycut (since he'll be making max money at that point). But considering he chose to leave $15 mil on the table this time, he could very conceivably just do it again if he thinks the Wiz are not contenders for a 'chip. He'll be 29 at that point, with about 5 good years left. Still plenty of time to switch to another franchise and try for a ring.

I like the cut of that kid's jib.

[Dat2U]

One thing good about Gilbert. His future isn't tied directly with Eddie Jordan's. We aren't going to see Gil campaigning to keep EJ as coach for life.

I don't mind the player option either. He won't exercise it (and probably take a pay cut) unless things are really bad, and if they are, it's probably time to blow things up in which case Gil opting out and creating cap flexibility wouldn't be a bad situation for the Wiz.

[Zerocious]

was watching gils presser and it seems like he wasn't the one to determine how much to give back. Twice in the interview he mentiones and once ernie mentions that gil asked ernie how much they wanted him to take (i.e. how much to leave on the table) ernie gave him a number and gil accepted.

now we can delete all the neg talk out of this thread. sheeiiiiitt

[Kanyewest]

One thing good about Gilbert. His future isn't tied directly with Eddie Jordan's. We aren't going to see Gil campaigning to keep EJ as coach for life.

I don't mind the player option either. He won't exercise it (and probably take a pay cut) unless things are really bad, and if they are, it's probably time to blow things up in which case Gil opting out and creating cap flexibility wouldn't be a bad situation for the Wiz.

Gilbert seems like one of Eddie Jordan proponents from everything I've heard after his 1st year with the Wizards.

[Dat2U]

One thing good about Gilbert. His future isn't tied directly with Eddie Jordan's. We aren't going to see Gil campaigning to keep EJ as coach for life.

I don't mind the player option either. He won't exercise it (and probably take a pay cut) unless things are really bad, and if they are, it's probably time to blow things up in which case Gil opting out and creating cap flexibility wouldn't be a bad situation for the Wiz.

Gilbert seems like one of Eddie Jordan proponents from everything I've heard after his 1st year with the Wizards.

Well when Gil initally hurt his knee against the Charlotte Bobcats, that was the same game that EJ had Gil come off the bench because he was late for the shootaround.

It came out last offseason that Gil puts the onus on EJ somehow for his injury because he believed it may not have taken place if he was starting as usual.

The relationship b/w the two can be best described as frosty ever since.

Gil on a couple occassions last season didn't let EJ know he was returning to the lineup.

[nate33]

Arenas is one lucky man

Gilbert Arenas revealed on Tuesday that he was close to returning to the Golden State Warriors this past off season, but since the Wizards remained committed to him, he remained committed to them, the San Francisco Chronicle is reporting.

"I was close to going back," Arenas said. "If (the Wizards) would have flinched any, I would have gone back to Golden State. ... My injury, they felt like they didn't have to throw any money at me because there was nobody there. And then they found out (Baron Davis) opted out and realized (the Warriors) were still looking at me.

"I was surprised (by the Warriors' max offer) because I talked to BD the night before and he said he wasn't leaving. What surprised both of us was Elton Brand opting out (from the Clippers)."

Arenas, who says he talked with Warriors team president Robert Rowell about the possible deal, hasn't played since re-signing with the Wizards for six years at $111 million this past summer after undergoing another operation on his left knee.

Arenas has to be the luckiest man alive. One day before the opt-out deadline, Arenas believed that both Baron Davis and Elton Brand were staying put with their own teams. That left absolutely NO MARKET for Arenas to get a max offer. The best offer on the table would have been to Philly for 5 years, $80M - yet he opted out anyway. By sheer luck, a last minute move by Brand and then Davis enabled Arenas to get an offer of $127M. Fate costed Abe pollin about $20M over 6 years.

And to all of you EG bashers, recognize that EG had played his cards right until this last minute surprise move from Brand. EG was in a strong negotiating position and should have been able to work out a deal for $80-90M if it weren't for Brand.

[Benjammin]

It also did not work out well that Jamison apparently had some early interest from Philadelphia. Without that, his contract would likely have been somewhat smaller. But the Gil story is an amazing one. Here's the thing, if Gil comes all the way back, most of us should not be complaining. If he doesn't, what's another 20-30 million dollars flushed down the toilet?