Post#4 » by tsherkin » Fri Sep 4, 2009 9:03 am
So, I attended this game with a friend and it was... well, let's just say that the rowdy activity between the Ryerson and Humber frosh groups was a lot more entertaining than the game.
The hitters made a game of it, I must say. Wells was as staggeringly ineffectual as is customary and Scutaro had a quiet game (though he did get a sac fly and he got lucky on an A-Rod error). We blew a couple of opportunities and both Hill and Lind were quiet (though Hill had a big RBI rip and Lind walked twice). Overbay was crap tonight, but I can give him a pass for that because he's hitting a lot better than he did last year, kinda like his first season with us, at least power-wise.
I'm not at all surprised that our passive and unemotional pitching staff stood by and let New York's starter hit our guys twice without retaliation, and none still even after one of their relievers did it too. That was annoying, but expected.
League (somewhat surprisingly) and Camp were both effective; Frasor blowing it was surprising.
Romero lasted a third of an inning less than my pre-game prediction to my buddy, going 4.1 IP instead of the 4.2 IP I predicted. That Snider bobble was brutal, and he and Frasor were basically why we lost this game. I guess Jason can only be so lucky, right? It's funny, because he'd been allowing only 0.2 HR/9 up until then, and looking really awesome in general. Everyone has an off night, I guess.
It was nice to see us put up some runs, but disappointing that we stopped at 5. Before this game, we'd gone from a 5 R/G team (e.g. above average in the AL) down to 4.77, which is just below league average (4.84).
Surprisingly, it's not HR production that's killing us; for all the moaning (some/much done by myself), the Jays are actually 5th in the AL with 160 HR, which is +6 over league average.
What's worth noting is that we are below average in productive outs (so, advancing runners, successful sac plays, driving a run in with the 2nd out of the inning), and we're bottom third of the league in terms of the percentage of our baserunners who score at 14%. We also do poorly in scoring runners in high-leverage situations, so we choke a lot with RISP and 2 outs, but also with 0 and 1 outs.
Through September 2nd, we were SECOND LAST in the AL for team BA/RISP, at .256 (league averagea is .268). We're also 8 points under league average BA/BIP. Only Oakland has a lower BA/RISP (at .238) than we do, which is god-awful. Yes, that's right; even though Baltimore scores fewer runs per game than we do, they get hits with RISP a lot more regularly (in fact, they're like 16 points above league average in BA/RISP).
That's depressing; it simply re-states the obvious, but we are a TERRIBLE hitting team when runners get into scoring position, comparatively speaking.
Sidenote: team FIP is below league average, which is cool. Not such a hot deal for our defense, but we knew that as soon as Rolen left, Encarnacion (and now Bautista) would make trouble for us, and Scoot has been terrible of late. Plus, Snider isn't really good at much of anything yet.
Pitching-wise, we're more vulnerable to the long ball than average when the ball gets put in the air, but our walks are about average, we strike more guys out than average and our GB% is higher than average. AND we're running a boatload of young, inexperienced pitchers and lost three of our best pitchers from the season before. I count it as a big, screaming success that we're a slightly above-average pitching staff this year.
What does it say about our offense that the best comparison for us is the Dodgers, though? They are an almost exactly average team on offense in the National League (save for the fact that they're hitting about .312 BA/BIP and consequently producing above-average R/G)?
*grumble*
I'm ranting, but it's appropriate; I know we only left 9 guys on base this game and we scored 5 runs, but we blew choice opportunities on a regular basis this game, and this was a winnable game until the top of the 9th. Naturally, Millar and Wells did nothing with RISP in the bottom of the 9th, but by then it didn't matter.
Ugh. This was a really disappointing game.