I hate trade columns.
Weeks of speculation that almost never pan out and aren't anchored by any kind of reality. If it's not an agent looking to place his client(s) somewhere else, it's a GM, on orders of his silent owner, looking to create a market for a player he wants to to ditch. Even the "truth" of something, like Team A is shopping a player, is normally calculated by Team A for its own self-interest. Plus, almost everyone is lying this time of year; the teams that are really looking to do something deny it even when they're caught red-handed.
Hate them.
But you love them, and I get that. Nothing beats bar talk (How good would the Cavs be with Jamison?), and it's fun when it's not your job to check out every rancid, ridiculous rumor. But we are within two weeks of the Feb. 18 trade deadline, so I guess spending a few minutes dipping into the water isn't going to kill me.
So ... by this time next week, it's almost a certainty that Caron Butler will be gone from Washington, and highly likely that Tyrus Thomas will no longer be a Bull. By the 18th, Indiana's Troy Murphy and Philly's Andre Iguodala are certain to have new addresses as well, though those teams may well go right up until the 3 p.m. deadline to max out their suitors' offers.
Amar'e Stoudemire? For all the talk that a trade is a done deal, two people who should know swore to me Sunday that it's much more likely the Suns hold onto STAT than make a trade.
Stoudemire's declaration to Yahoo! Sports that he might well not opt out of his deal after this season and play the final season at $17.68 million next year, though, would seem to make him more likely to be traded than not; teams will be much more willing to take on one year of salary before a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is worked out than try to sign a free agent like Stoudemire not knowing what the new rules would be on new contracts.
Would Philly bite the bullet anyway, and make a deal, sending Iguodala out West? Not without some certainty that Stoudemire wouldn't opt out after next season, and the Sixers still believe he will, meaning they'd get probably wind up with nothing, as they certainly aren't going to be in a position to give him the $60 million for three years that he's been seeking. That's a non-starter for Philly.
Would Chicago mind if Stoudemire opted out? Probably not. He's not their target next summer; I remain convinced Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh are. So if the Bulls deal for Stoudemire and he walks, that's just $17 million more in cap room for them.
On the other hand, the Bulls, I'm told, are terrified that if they don't move Thomas by the 18th, he'll happily accept the one-year, $6.2 million qualifying offer Chicago would have to tender him this summer as a restricted free agent -- a complete non-starter for a team that is determined to save every penny toward next summer. And if they don't tender him and let him walk as an unrestricted free agent -- what Milwaukee did last summer with Charlie Villanueva, for example -- they will have let Ben Gordon and Thomas scoot town in consecutive seasons while getting nothing in return, and that would be a hard sell to Bulls fans.
Sending Thomas to Houston as part of a package for Tracy McGrady's expiring contract would seem to be the way to go. The problem, though, from a source in the middle of all this, is that Houston is not interested in Kirk Hinrich, whose contract would be central toward making a deal with the Rockets work. (Chicago still has expiring pieces like Brad Miller that could make a deal possible, however.)
The Wizards' desire to move Butler has only increased in recent days, since they found out they will indeed get some cap relief from the NBA this season after losing Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton to suspension for the rest of the season. Washington's cap number will be reduced almost $4 million, according to sources -- pro-rated amounts of the remainder of Arenas's $16.1 million and Crittenton's $1.47 million salaries -- taking its cap number to a little more than $74 million. The cap threshhold is $69.9 million, meaning Washington could avoid paying tax if it can pare another $4 to $5 million in salaries off its books.
That means Butler, though I suspect the Wizards will ask inquiring teams to remove Mike James and/or DeShawn Stevenson from their payroll as well.
Butler winding up somewhere in Texas is most likely, with Washington probably deciding between Dallas' and Houston's competing offers before next week's All-Star Game. The Wizards are determined to get a young player back, though, and the Mavericks' only non-geezer is rookie guard Rod Beaubois -- while Houston has a young guard like Kyle Lowry and an expiring big man contract in forward Luis Scola to pair with McGrady's $22 million expiring deal.
(Don't discount Portland, either. While much has been made of the Blazers' pursuit of Washington center Brendan Haywood, the Blazers have just as much, if not more, interest in Butler, and are willing to put $3 milliion in cash toward a deal -- which certainly interests the Wizards. But Portland's refusal to put any of its young players other than Martell Webster in any potential deal puts it on the outside looking in. As has been reported, the Wizards want either Nicholas Batum -- no chance -- or Rudy Fernandez -- not likely, as he is a favorite of many inside the Blazers' braintrust. The Lakers would also love to repatriate Butler with Kobe Bryant, who would love to have him. But L.A. doesn't have the expiring contract/young player assets necessary to get seriously involved.)
As for Jamison and Haywood, Washington would rather hold onto both, though there's always a deal out there that can change someone's mind. Cleveland, as everyone knows by now, wants Jamison, but the Cavs still don't want to part with second-year forward J.J. Hickson, whom the Wizards looked long and hard at before taking JaVale McGee in the 2008 Draft. The Cavs and Rockets are also in the market for extra picks for 2009, and are willing to pay for them.
Seems Butler is a lock to go. Looks also like they want major salary relief to avoid tax. The deal i keep proposing would shed 3.5 million instantly off their cap but im sure a 3rd team could be involved to get rid of Oberto or take one of our players to move their savings to over 4 million. lets hope BC works the phones. I mean our 3.5 million instant savings + we could send 3 million cash, a 2010 second (decent young player), jose calderon (future PG) + antonie wright (25 years old) i think it would get the deal done.
