Post#31 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 9:23 pm
!) Yes all statements about player talents ARE opinions. But short of opinions, the players do determine if you win, so if you suck at forming opinions, you are more likely to not notice the good players or the bad. I am a master of forming logical opinions. You may not agree with my opinions, but my process of using correct logic predisposes me to making no mental mistakes. If I draft Suh, and Suh busts, I do not consider that a mistake, as to me the justification for gambling on Suh is logical to choose him this high. Picking Suh is invulnerable from being a logic mistake and thus all you have to do in football is NOT taking ANY voluntary logic mistakes. If you do that, then margins fall in your lap and you become the best team EXTREMELY quickly in this league. Now, if you choose McCoy at 2 and he busts, that is a logic mistake. You may say that's not fair, why should Suh be exempt but not McCoy, and that comes down to the logic and it gets really complicated to explore logic that deeply, especially considering on this site some people on here have failed at grasping even elementary logical concepts.
2) How many shots do you give a QB to the point that you are sold that he's good? Were you confident in Matt Ryan after his first year/ I sure was, I thought of him as a winning pick after that first year. But I don't feel that way about Stafford. Sure Stafford has MORE chances left to improve, and Ryan has more chances to suck, but without knowing the future, we've seen evidence to declare and feel comfortable with the Ryan pick, but not the Stafford pick. If we kept things simple, it's like Stafford was worth about "x", Sanches was worth about "x", Ryan was worth about "x" and Bradford and Claussen are worth about "x". Now what if I told you some future information. Say I told you that Bradford makes the Pro Bowl in Year 6, now what does that mean? Well it could mean he becomes a HOF, or it could mean that he becomes a crappy QB that somehow has one fluke year. You can't be 100% sure either way, but it is LOGICAL to lean towards thinking that one piece of info is more indicative of a good player than a bad. Now Stafford's future info that we know is not 6 years out, it's only 1 year out. If we could have one year of info on any QB prospect, well the first year is the worst year of info to know because it's the one that means the least towards knowing if this guy is going to pan out. So just because he sucked in his first year doesn't mean he can't be great. But it's the first litmus test, and he failed with flying colors. So now his "x" to me is worth 90%x. If he fails 5 more years in a row then that 90% keeps dropping. Maybe he'll play 4 years and suck really bad every year and then be at 1% but then somehow in his 5th year he becomes the greatest QB ever! Possible perhaps, but I don't gamble on things unless they are SURE things if I can help it. And the ONLY info I have on Stafford's pro game so far is bad information. It's only logical to swap him out for a fresh ticket if the cost is nothing, or small enough to not overshadow the margin. You also have to look at the other dynamics, such as the fans being pissed off about that, but I think you can sell that quite well actually and I believe the fans would be MORE LIKELY to support the new team than what we currently have once they see all the player changes that come about and make more sense to them.
3) Umm that's about a 100 page answer just to give you the short version, maybe another time. But yeah it's a slam dunk and I've never talked to anybody who's figured out my system, which I assure is foolproof. I have found how to use all the loopholes of the game to string them together in such a way that I can take extra gains beyond what I pay for them. It would be like if you were a stock investor and you new a guy that had coupons for 10% and 20% off. Well you don't have to know anything about the stock market to become the best stock trader of all time, you just have to be the one person that gets away with using coupons and in effect makes 10% or 20% instantaneously in value, just for the transaction. My way of building a football team is analogous to our team being a bookie, and the other teams keep calling us to place bets. And with every trade that is made, you have to pay us a juice. I don't care how good you are or how lucky you are, when you are paying me the juice I'm going to use that to destroy you. And then you add in the fact that I just also happen to be skilled to the point that I can scout players better than the other GMs, just gives me EXTRA advantage. I use logic for scouting, and that's something that from my interpretation I see that 90% of the scouts don't do, because they don't know how to break down a player's film and movements and reconcile them LOGICALLY to figure out where the player's problem is, is it physical, or mental, or is there a problem? I'm tempted to assume it's at least 99%, I just have a generally low opinion of NFL scouts in particular to other sports. Although in fairness I think that's partially due to the lousy GMs that just make their teams and their scouts look bad with the way that they draft and manage their teams. But I'm still sure there is a serious deficiency of scouting talent in the NFL, and I don't feel that way about the other sports.