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Dream Drafts

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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#21 » by Liqourish » Tue Mar 9, 2010 4:57 pm

Piston Pete wrote:So you throw away a proven Stafford for unknowns in Bradford (questionable injury history) and Claussen? Best-case scenario, its a lateral move. Likely, its a downgrade.

Basically, your logic doesn't make any sense to me.


His "logic" doesn't make sense to anyone. Although we don't have his self-made forumlas to compute the information. :lol:
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#22 » by kellmellus50 » Tue Mar 9, 2010 5:20 pm

TSE wrote:If you consider them both to be potential franchise QBs, you could argue that your odds of Clausssen panning out are higher, on account that Stafford had one freebie year that he looked really bad in. Most QBs take time to develop, but nevertheless the first year was a shot for Stafford to surprise and be a high-impact rookie, or to play good enough that he raises his perceived stock from the point of where we drafted. In my opinion his first year play, all things considered for him being rookie, he lowered his stock. If I'm looking for a franchise QB I would rather take my shot with a guy like Bradford or Claussen, it's a more strategic play. And this is a special year for the cap, now's the time to reshape and make changes. The opportunity to trade Stafford won't be available in the future due to cap hits as well as the fact that he's either going to prove his worth and we won't want to trade him, or he'll take a 2nd hit and then we'll be in no-man's land. With Claussen not only do we get a QB who I think has a slightly higher chance of not busting, but we buy time and we get 2 shots instead of one, the same first year for Claussen to get his feet wet but still a chance to surprise and shine and raise his stock, or the 2nd year dynamic which would be the equivalent of what we have now. I see a potential for more odds and more bullets, and with the QB position I don't mess around, I have to do everything I can to get SOMEBODY in there that can get the job done, and I'm getting that done first and securely and I don't care what the guy's name is. I just want the fastest most secure route of getting that keeper.


Your logic makes perfect sence to me ,i can understand everything your saying.
Bottom line Stafford not getting the job done so we are looking at alternatives of what the lions can do.
.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#23 » by Piston Pete » Tue Mar 9, 2010 5:31 pm

What is your basis for thinking that Stafford isn't getting the job done - or will never be that guy? Just curious.....

Is anyone else getting the feeling that TSE and kellmellus know eachother outside of this forum? They seem to agree on the weirdest points continuously brought up in here....just too odd.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#24 » by Liqourish » Tue Mar 9, 2010 6:00 pm

I think they are the same person. Occasionally Kell will bust out a TSE post that's way too composed for her posting style.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#25 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 8:32 pm

Piston Pete wrote:So you throw away a proven Stafford for unknowns in Bradford (questionable injury history) and Claussen? Best-case scenario, its a lateral move. Likely, its a downgrade.

Basically, your logic doesn't make any sense to me.


That'x because you are working with false premises. Stafford is NOT proven. And I don't want both Bradford and Claussen, I only want one of them, and right now I tentatively prefer NONE of them and am most likely interested in a franchise QB next draft. If you read all my posts in this thread, the logic should be pretty straightforward on this one.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#26 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 8:33 pm

Liqourish wrote:I think they are the same person. Occasionally Kell will bust out a TSE post that's way too composed for her posting style.


Wrong.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#27 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 8:36 pm

Piston Pete wrote:What is your basis for thinking that Stafford isn't getting the job done


LOL because he DIDN'T get the job done so far. We had TWO wins last year, and our QB play by Stafford was the biggest contributor to our losses than any other single player on the team. That's why.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#28 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 8:44 pm

kellmellus50 wrote:
TSE wrote:If you consider them both to be potential franchise QBs, you could argue that your odds of Clausssen panning out are higher, on account that Stafford had one freebie year that he looked really bad in. Most QBs take time to develop, but nevertheless the first year was a shot for Stafford to surprise and be a high-impact rookie, or to play good enough that he raises his perceived stock from the point of where we drafted. In my opinion his first year play, all things considered for him being rookie, he lowered his stock. If I'm looking for a franchise QB I would rather take my shot with a guy like Bradford or Claussen, it's a more strategic play. And this is a special year for the cap, now's the time to reshape and make changes. The opportunity to trade Stafford won't be available in the future due to cap hits as well as the fact that he's either going to prove his worth and we won't want to trade him, or he'll take a 2nd hit and then we'll be in no-man's land. With Claussen not only do we get a QB who I think has a slightly higher chance of not busting, but we buy time and we get 2 shots instead of one, the same first year for Claussen to get his feet wet but still a chance to surprise and shine and raise his stock, or the 2nd year dynamic which would be the equivalent of what we have now. I see a potential for more odds and more bullets, and with the QB position I don't mess around, I have to do everything I can to get SOMEBODY in there that can get the job done, and I'm getting that done first and securely and I don't care what the guy's name is. I just want the fastest most secure route of getting that keeper.


Your logic makes perfect sence to me ,i can understand everything your saying.
Bottom line Stafford not getting the job done so we are looking at alternatives of what the lions can do.
.


Exactly. Nobody knew what Stafford and Sanchez were going to do, cause nobody can predict the future with certainty. Stafford had a bad year, so if we don't have future information and we have to go on what we know, well known information is that Stafford is MORE likely to not be the best QB.

When you get a QB on your team sometimes you luck out like Atlanta or Baltimore to the point that you are reasonably sure you hit on your draft pick in that first year. The odds that your rookie QB makes that hit in Year 1 are well below 50%, but nevertheless you have a shot. In our first shot with Stafford, he played LESS than what his stock was perceived to be worth as the #1 overall, and all that does is lower his value. If Stafford was worth the #1 overall last year, well then he must be worth less this year. He missed his chance of shining in year one, and now Bradford and Claussen have "x" percent to shine in Year 1, but Stafford can't get that back. If all other things are equal, then there is a statistical margin gained by going with one of those 2 guys. If we did that at EVERY position then we would have the best team in the history of sports. You just can't make upgrades like this all the time and everywhere. The opportunities don't present themselves enough. The best way to win in the NFL is capitalize on ANYTHING you can do to gain a bonus margin, and to avoid the bad decisions in which you give up margins to other teams. That's how you build logically. And with this being a special year, now's the time to make wholesale changes to the roster, cause you can't do it the same way in the future. This is our ONE shot that we have been blessed with to turn things around. Without cheating, God himself couldn't have set better rules in the NFL and given us a better situation to work from. We have a slam dunk path to creating a super dynasty, but only if we accept margins at any and ALL positions we can. And Mayhew is closed minded and won't look at every option. He already stated it lol. That's bad for us. It makes our challenge slightly tougher.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#29 » by ajaX82 » Tue Mar 9, 2010 9:05 pm

TSE wrote:
kellmellus50 wrote:
TSE wrote:If you consider them both to be potential franchise QBs, you could argue that your odds of Clausssen panning out are higher, on account that Stafford had one freebie year that he looked really bad in. Most QBs take time to develop, but nevertheless the first year was a shot for Stafford to surprise and be a high-impact rookie, or to play good enough that he raises his perceived stock from the point of where we drafted. In my opinion his first year play, all things considered for him being rookie, he lowered his stock. If I'm looking for a franchise QB I would rather take my shot with a guy like Bradford or Claussen, it's a more strategic play. And this is a special year for the cap, now's the time to reshape and make changes. The opportunity to trade Stafford won't be available in the future due to cap hits as well as the fact that he's either going to prove his worth and we won't want to trade him, or he'll take a 2nd hit and then we'll be in no-man's land. With Claussen not only do we get a QB who I think has a slightly higher chance of not busting, but we buy time and we get 2 shots instead of one, the same first year for Claussen to get his feet wet but still a chance to surprise and shine and raise his stock, or the 2nd year dynamic which would be the equivalent of what we have now. I see a potential for more odds and more bullets, and with the QB position I don't mess around, I have to do everything I can to get SOMEBODY in there that can get the job done, and I'm getting that done first and securely and I don't care what the guy's name is. I just want the fastest most secure route of getting that keeper.


Your logic makes perfect sence to me ,i can understand everything your saying.
Bottom line Stafford not getting the job done so we are looking at alternatives of what the lions can do.
.


Exactly. Nobody knew what Stafford and Sanchez were going to do, cause nobody can predict the future with certainty. Stafford had a bad year, so if we don't have future information and we have to go on what we know, well known information is that Stafford is MORE likely to not be the best QB.

When you get a QB on your team sometimes you luck out like Atlanta or Baltimore to the point that you are reasonably sure you hit on your draft pick in that first year. The odds that your rookie QB makes that hit in Year 1 are well below 50%, but nevertheless you have a shot. In our first shot with Stafford, he played LESS than what his stock was perceived to be worth as the #1 overall, and all that does is lower his value. If Stafford was worth the #1 overall last year, well then he must be worth less this year. He missed his chance of shining in year one, and now Bradford and Claussen have "x" percent to shine in Year 1, but Stafford can't get that back. If all other things are equal, then there is a statistical margin gained by going with one of those 2 guys. If we did that at EVERY position then we would have the best team in the history of sports. You just can't make upgrades like this all the time and everywhere. The opportunities don't present themselves enough. The best way to win in the NFL is capitalize on ANYTHING you can do to gain a bonus margin, and to avoid the bad decisions in which you give up margins to other teams. That's how you build logically. And with this being a special year, now's the time to make wholesale changes to the roster, cause you can't do it the same way in the future. This is our ONE shot that we have been blessed with to turn things around. Without cheating, God himself couldn't have set better rules in the NFL and given us a better situation to work from. We have a slam dunk path to creating a super dynasty, but only if we accept margins at any and ALL positions we can. And Mayhew is closed minded and won't look at every option. He already stated it lol. That's bad for us. It makes our challenge slightly tougher.


sigh

I had a long response typed up but decided against it. I'll shorten it. My questions and comments:

1) you say Stafford didnt shine...and thats fine. BUT Its an opinion, you cant present it as fact.

2) what is "X percent" of success in year 1? I dont get what you are saying...

3) I'm interested in the slam dunk path to an NFL dynasty. please enlighten us
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#30 » by Piston Pete » Tue Mar 9, 2010 9:14 pm

I think your plain out wrong TSE.

Stafford, as a rookie, showed a lot of promise last season. So what if we only won 2 games? You need to judge him based on more than just wins/losses - seeing how he was a rookie playing for a team that just came off an 0-16 record....

Talent-wise, I take him over both Bradford and Claussen, and whoever you have tabbed as the franchise QB in the 2011 draft (only one I can think of might be Jake Locker).

When a team FINALLY gets their QB (when was the last time we had a decent QB here?), they usually don't rush him out the door - especially for a chance at another franchise QB they may or may not be able to get in 2 years.....

Stafford has all the throws and the toughness to make it. He just needs experience and the ability to read defenses better IMO.

I need more than, "he only won 2 games last season" to even consider reading anything else about how you'd trade Stafford. The argument makes VERY little sense, if any at all.

We have so many other holes on this team that we can't afford to recycle QB's every season, especiallly when we just used the #1 overall draft pick on one.....
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#31 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 9:23 pm

!) Yes all statements about player talents ARE opinions. But short of opinions, the players do determine if you win, so if you suck at forming opinions, you are more likely to not notice the good players or the bad. I am a master of forming logical opinions. You may not agree with my opinions, but my process of using correct logic predisposes me to making no mental mistakes. If I draft Suh, and Suh busts, I do not consider that a mistake, as to me the justification for gambling on Suh is logical to choose him this high. Picking Suh is invulnerable from being a logic mistake and thus all you have to do in football is NOT taking ANY voluntary logic mistakes. If you do that, then margins fall in your lap and you become the best team EXTREMELY quickly in this league. Now, if you choose McCoy at 2 and he busts, that is a logic mistake. You may say that's not fair, why should Suh be exempt but not McCoy, and that comes down to the logic and it gets really complicated to explore logic that deeply, especially considering on this site some people on here have failed at grasping even elementary logical concepts.

2) How many shots do you give a QB to the point that you are sold that he's good? Were you confident in Matt Ryan after his first year/ I sure was, I thought of him as a winning pick after that first year. But I don't feel that way about Stafford. Sure Stafford has MORE chances left to improve, and Ryan has more chances to suck, but without knowing the future, we've seen evidence to declare and feel comfortable with the Ryan pick, but not the Stafford pick. If we kept things simple, it's like Stafford was worth about "x", Sanches was worth about "x", Ryan was worth about "x" and Bradford and Claussen are worth about "x". Now what if I told you some future information. Say I told you that Bradford makes the Pro Bowl in Year 6, now what does that mean? Well it could mean he becomes a HOF, or it could mean that he becomes a crappy QB that somehow has one fluke year. You can't be 100% sure either way, but it is LOGICAL to lean towards thinking that one piece of info is more indicative of a good player than a bad. Now Stafford's future info that we know is not 6 years out, it's only 1 year out. If we could have one year of info on any QB prospect, well the first year is the worst year of info to know because it's the one that means the least towards knowing if this guy is going to pan out. So just because he sucked in his first year doesn't mean he can't be great. But it's the first litmus test, and he failed with flying colors. So now his "x" to me is worth 90%x. If he fails 5 more years in a row then that 90% keeps dropping. Maybe he'll play 4 years and suck really bad every year and then be at 1% but then somehow in his 5th year he becomes the greatest QB ever! Possible perhaps, but I don't gamble on things unless they are SURE things if I can help it. And the ONLY info I have on Stafford's pro game so far is bad information. It's only logical to swap him out for a fresh ticket if the cost is nothing, or small enough to not overshadow the margin. You also have to look at the other dynamics, such as the fans being pissed off about that, but I think you can sell that quite well actually and I believe the fans would be MORE LIKELY to support the new team than what we currently have once they see all the player changes that come about and make more sense to them.

3) Umm that's about a 100 page answer just to give you the short version, maybe another time. But yeah it's a slam dunk and I've never talked to anybody who's figured out my system, which I assure is foolproof. I have found how to use all the loopholes of the game to string them together in such a way that I can take extra gains beyond what I pay for them. It would be like if you were a stock investor and you new a guy that had coupons for 10% and 20% off. Well you don't have to know anything about the stock market to become the best stock trader of all time, you just have to be the one person that gets away with using coupons and in effect makes 10% or 20% instantaneously in value, just for the transaction. My way of building a football team is analogous to our team being a bookie, and the other teams keep calling us to place bets. And with every trade that is made, you have to pay us a juice. I don't care how good you are or how lucky you are, when you are paying me the juice I'm going to use that to destroy you. And then you add in the fact that I just also happen to be skilled to the point that I can scout players better than the other GMs, just gives me EXTRA advantage. I use logic for scouting, and that's something that from my interpretation I see that 90% of the scouts don't do, because they don't know how to break down a player's film and movements and reconcile them LOGICALLY to figure out where the player's problem is, is it physical, or mental, or is there a problem? I'm tempted to assume it's at least 99%, I just have a generally low opinion of NFL scouts in particular to other sports. Although in fairness I think that's partially due to the lousy GMs that just make their teams and their scouts look bad with the way that they draft and manage their teams. But I'm still sure there is a serious deficiency of scouting talent in the NFL, and I don't feel that way about the other sports.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#32 » by TSE » Tue Mar 9, 2010 9:32 pm

Piston Pete wrote:I think your plain out wrong TSE.

Stafford, as a rookie, showed a lot of promise last season. So what if we only won 2 games? You need to judge him based on more than just wins/losses - seeing how he was a rookie playing for a team that just came off an 0-16 record....

Talent-wise, I take him over both Bradford and Claussen, and whoever you have tabbed as the franchise QB in the 2011 draft (only one I can think of might be Jake Locker).

When a team FINALLY gets their QB (when was the last time we had a decent QB here?), they usually don't rush him out the door - especially for a chance at another franchise QB they may or may not be able to get in 2 years.....

Stafford has all the throws and the toughness to make it. He just needs experience and the ability to read defenses better IMO.

I need more than, "he only won 2 games last season" to even consider reading anything else about how you'd trade Stafford. The argument makes VERY little sense, if any at all.

We have so many other holes on this team that we can't afford to recycle QB's every season, especiallly when we just used the #1 overall draft pick on one.....


I disagree. I think that Stafford looked awful. Showed SOME promise? What does that mean? Everybody shows some promise, that's why they are in the NFL. He has a big strong arm, and we can win with that. If next year Stafford fixes his problems and starts using his brain correctly, well then he could be a HOF QB. He has the physical tools, the only issue with him is mental. He could very easily be a gigantic bust or a great player, it's up to him to figure out how to "get it" if he is able to.

And I do base him on more than wins/losses, your statement suggests that I don't and again just fuels your post into getting off logical track. Talent-wise in terms of physical abilities and raw talent I take him too, but that's not the ONLY thing you should look at when judging a QB. You should also look at who is likely to convert that talent and redirect it into the form of deadly QB play. Stafford HAS more raw talent and ability than all of those QBs, but if I had to guess I would say that he has the weakest conversion likelihood, as evidenced by the train wreck I saw last year. Keep in mind I don't even have the film on Bradford or Claussen or Locker, so it's not like I'm vouching for these guys yet, when I say we should draft Bradford, it's merely a thought, and with any thought before you can actually make that trade offer you have to know where you stand on Bradford, and that's key. For all I know I could say let's do this trade with St.Louis but then when I pop the tape in on Bradford I say well wait a minute, actually he doesn't have what it takes, then maybe I actually do choose to go with Stafford. It is just my belief right now that upon doing all the investigations, I THINK that I will still end up in the category of wanting to replace Stafford, but I never assume anything so that disclaimer has to be included. All I can do without the film is look at them as where they are projected to go and hypothesize around that to figure out our best path to win the most amount of games we can for BOTH the short and long term.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#33 » by kellmellus50 » Thu Mar 11, 2010 12:03 pm

Schwartz: “(Let’s not say), ‘We have to take a defensive tackle or we have to take (a specific) position.’ Last year at this time were saying sort of the same kind of thing. ‘Hey look, we’re not saying that we’re definitely drafting a quarterback. Let’s let the whole thing play out – let’s get the best player. If that happens to be a quarterback then that’s good

We could probably say the same thing with defensive tackle. Let’s not make our mind up right now, let’s let everything play out. Let’s let all the information be brought, let’s make a good decision on that. But regardless, we need to find a good player for us at that spot

It looks like TSE and Kellmellus is right about the lions, they could draft a QB with the 2nd pick

http://blogs.detroitlions.com/
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#34 » by Bartender » Thu Mar 11, 2010 1:25 pm

kellmellus50 wrote:Schwartz: “(Let’s not say), ‘We have to take a defensive tackle or we have to take (a specific) position.’ Last year at this time were saying sort of the same kind of thing. ‘Hey look, we’re not saying that we’re definitely drafting a quarterback. Let’s let the whole thing play out – let’s get the best player. If that happens to be a quarterback then that’s good

We could probably say the same thing with defensive tackle. Let’s not make our mind up right now, let’s let everything play out. Let’s let all the information be brought, let’s make a good decision on that. But regardless, we need to find a good player for us at that spot

It looks like TSE and Kellmellus is right about the lions, they could draft a QB with the 2nd pick

http://blogs.detroitlions.com/


LMFAOQLDGSLSKDHGKLJDSHGKJ

OMG Kell. That's NOT what he was saying! He was saying that last years QB situation is this years DT situation. He was saying that last year, their thoughts were, "We want a QB and are prolly going to draft a QB, but let's not make that decision right now." and that this year they are saying, We want a DT and are prolly going to draft a DT, but let's not make the decision right now."

He's saying that they are in the same situation they were in last year, except this year it's for DT instead of QB.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#35 » by TSE » Thu Mar 11, 2010 1:39 pm

No Bartender that is not a correct paraphrasing. All he's saying is that they won't rule out ANY position, and DT this year just happens to be a preferred position, as QB was last year. He is saying "let's get the best player period". That's it dude.

And MAYBE the best player is Bradford. If that's the case then Scwartz drafts Bradford, according to the logic of his words. Thus, Kellmell is CORRECT here in stating that this item from Schwartz supports the concept of drafting a QB. In plain English, the connection is obvious here, all you have to do is re-read and interpret what's being said correctly as it applies to the question of if whether or not it's possible that they take a QB.

Kellmell's statment that "the Lions COULD draft a QB" fits just fine within Schwartz's comments, pretty simple stuff Bartender. You really shouldn't harp on people's posts and laugh at them unless you have a valid point of contention. I think you owe an apology.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#36 » by Piston Pete » Thu Mar 11, 2010 2:22 pm

^^^ Proof that TSE = Kellmellus :lol:
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#37 » by Bartender » Thu Mar 11, 2010 2:28 pm

TSE wrote:No Bartender that is not a correct paraphrasing. All he's saying is that they won't rule out ANY position, and DT this year just happens to be a preferred position, as QB was last year. He is saying "let's get the best player period". That's it dude.

And MAYBE the best player is Bradford. If that's the case then Scwartz drafts Bradford, according to the logic of his words. Thus, Kellmell is CORRECT here in stating that this item from Schwartz supports the concept of drafting a QB. In plain English, the connection is obvious here, all you have to do is re-read and interpret what's being said correctly as it applies to the question of if whether or not it's possible that they take a QB.

Kellmell's statment that "the Lions COULD draft a QB" fits just fine within Schwartz's comments, pretty simple stuff Bartender. You really shouldn't harp on people's posts and laugh at them unless you have a valid point of contention. I think you owe an apology.


Schwartz already quoted this offseason, "We're going to take best player available. Now, we're going to go out and take a quarterback with our 2nd overall pick. There will be some sense in our picks, but for the most part, best player available is how we'll draft.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#38 » by ajaX82 » Thu Mar 11, 2010 5:44 pm

You are jumping to conclusions by saying that article implies we could take a QB. It says

"Let’s not make our mind up right now, let’s let everything play out. Let’s let all the information be brought, let’s make a good decision on that. But regardless, we need to find a good player for us at that spot"

I am not sure how that implies we would consider a QB. He is saying that we need to collect tons of info and grab a good player for us at the 2 spot. And frankly TSE, Schwartz never once says we will draft the best player on the board period. Nothing like that. He says we need to find a good player at that spot, not the best available. So frankly your paraphrasing skills need some tuning.
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#39 » by Piston Pete » Thu Mar 11, 2010 5:54 pm

I don't even think a QB (Bradford) is top-5 talent in this draft.

Suh
McCoy
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Okung
Spiller
Bradford
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Re: Dream Drafts 

Post#40 » by TSE » Thu Mar 11, 2010 6:38 pm

ajaX82 wrote:You are jumping to conclusions by saying that article implies we could take a QB. It says

"Let’s not make our mind up right now, let’s let everything play out. Let’s let all the information be brought, let’s make a good decision on that. But regardless, we need to find a good player for us at that spot"

I am not sure how that implies we would consider a QB. He is saying that we need to collect tons of info and grab a good player for us at the 2 spot. And frankly TSE, Schwartz never once says we will draft the best player on the board period. Nothing like that. He says we need to find a good player at that spot, not the best available. So frankly your paraphrasing skills need some tuning.


I'm just speaking in reference to the quoted item in this thread. Nothing in there says that they won't consider a QB, thus they COULD consider a QB, according to Coach's words and logic and assuming he's speaking the truth of course. If not, then all bets are off. If so, then a QB is being considered if the QB is the BPA.

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