RealGM Top 100 #5

[An Unbiased Fan]

Celtics losing some playofff series they "should" have won -- um, McHale's injury comes to mind. So do bodies generally wearing out by the end of the season.

Except Bird lost 7 times with HCA, and that's with HOF support around him. Injuries are part of the game. For example, Kobe led the Lakers to 2 titles with a broken finger, and his center hurt. Shaq was knicked up during the 02' run, but in the playoffs, everyone is dealing with this stuff.

Outside of his legend as part of the "Immortal 6", I don't see how Bird is ahead of Shaq, Kobe, or TD. His peak isn't better than Shaq's, and both Kobe & TD beat him in longevity, 2-way play, and playoff success.

[An Unbiased Fan]

... in the regular season

He's had two years in a row where he's played like he had money on the other team with the season on the line. I'll consider him after KG and Oscar, but those two had way too good of careers for me to go LBJ over them, with what he just did. LBJ is David Robinson+ for me as of now (07 and 09 were better than anything DRob did to his credit)

Garnett is my choice, I was just making cases for LeBron over Robertson and West. Why Robertson over Garnett? I've pretty much made myself clear earlier about Garnett's case over either.

I'm not sure if I can put KG in before DRob. DRob was a better defensive anchor, better scorer, and comparable rebounder. Both guys struggled in the playoffs, and both won late in their careers. I'm curious, what does KG have over DRob?

[Baller 24]

Playoff Stats for Duncan adjusted to Bird's pace:

Code: Select all

               
                MPG,  PPG,   RPG, APG, BPG, SPG, TO,   TS,   PER
Bird (80-88):   42.6, 24.5, 10.7, 6.4, 0.9, 1.9, 3.2, .555, 21.9
Duncan (99-07): 40.0, 24.0, 12.8, 3.7, 2.8, 0.7, 3.2, .560, 27.0


Regular Season Stats for Duncan adjusted to Bird's pace:

Code: Select all

           
                MPG,  PPG,   RPG, APG, BPG, SPG, TO,   TS,   PER
Bird (80-88):   42.6, 24.5, 10.7, 6.4, 0.9, 1.9, 3.2, .555, 21.9
Duncan (99-07): 40.0, 26.5, 14.1, 4.1, 3.1, 0.8, 3.5, .560, 27.0


Duncan is the player that established the Spurs organization as one of the most dominant teams this decade, they're a team that lives off their luck to draft players, they're not guys who go out there and spend money in FA, you can even say they're kind of cheap. They've drafted back to back HOF front court players for the last two decades, they're pretty lucky.

Tony Parker, he's one of the more overrated players in the league IMO, you can replicate what he's did with many different players throughout the past decade, he's just a player that plays off of his quickness. Speedy Claxton comes to mind, someone that's quick as a cat, and actually played a significant role (maybe more significant than Parker in many different games) in the Spurs '03 title run (Parker had games where he was 0-14).

Think about Manu, he's awesome, probably a top 5 SG in the league right now, but he doesn't possess the stamina to play a 82 game season on heavy minutes. As consistent as the Spurs have been, why is it that they have a steady decline in the playoffs as Duncan ages, and the keys are given more to Manu and Parker? You can argue that he's never had the talent on the level of what O'Neal and Bryant were given. Bryant for two consecutive seasons had a superior supporting cast than essentially every single team in the league. During any of Duncan's championship runs, you can't consider the talent on his team to be that overwhelmingly superior compared to that of the rest of the league.

Think about Duncan's role as TEAM player, this past season the entire offense shifted to focus more on the guard play of Manu and Parker, and less reliant on Duncan. How would someone like Kobe Bryant or Shaq handle that news if they in the midst of coming off of a productive season were asked to reluctantly shift an offense and were told that they'd only be using their services maybe 20% of the time, while 80% will focus on a different player(s) style of play?

His accolades don't have to be repeated, he's got the whole world, he's got as many finals MVPs as Shaq, more than Bird, Chamberlain, Bryant, and Olajuwon. He's been the best player on his team on every championship run, that's more than any of the candidates up right now. He's possibly the best defensive player of the last decade, significantly greater on defense than any of his peers this past decade (Shaq & O'Neal).

And in terms of the RPOY thread, he's got 4 seasons where he's overwhelmingly the best player in the league, compared to zero for Bryant, and three for Shaq.

I'm not sure if I can put KG in before DRob. DRob was a better defensive anchor, better scorer, and comparable rebounder. Both guys struggled in the playoffs, and both won late in their careers. I'm curious, what does KG have over DRob?

Garnett was the clear cut best player on his championship run, and it can't even be debated.

[TMACFORMVP]

I actually think KG v. DRob is a very interesting debate. I'll agree that Robinson in his prime was a considerably more potent scorer, while being the more devastating defender as well. But the main argument KG has might surprisingly be a couple seasons removed off the ultimate apex of his career. The way he completely changed the Celtics dynamic offensively, and the leadership/tone he set led the Celtics to the championship. Sure, Pierce was the Finals MVP, and Allen was added to the team, along with development of the younger players, but it was KG who was the main catalyst for the turn around. In a sense, he became the Duncan for his team, which DRob couldn't do. Nearly 20/11 in the playoffs, with ridiculous defense, roughly 23 PPG in the conference Finals (IIRC, there was talk that KG could potentially struggle against Sheed), and a monster Finals clinching 26 point and 14 rebound performance.

And considering their peaks aren't what I'd call a huge separation (KG makes up for some of the lack of potent scoring with his passing ability), then what Garnett did in Boston might be the tipping point in the favor for himself.

Edit - Baller pretty much beat me to it.

[Gongxi]

Garnett and Robinson are extremely similar as far as rankings. Veeeeerrrry interesting argument.

[Baller 24]

Anyone who wants to even argue Pierce as the best player on the Celtics---KG was 3rd in MVP voting, Pierce was 14th in MVP voting. Statistically, you can't even compare. And if you're making the case that the Finals MVP is the reasoning that Pierce is greater, than I guess Parker is greater and more significant for the '07 Spurs too. Oh and RPOY, Garnett's been the best player in the entire league on two different occasions (and in '04, he swept the board), Robinson's never has had that support.

[colts18]

I'll repost this Shaq vs. Bird:

More seasons: 19-13
More prime seasons: 15-12
Better Prime: Shaq was 30-15 for 3 straight playoffs
Longer Peak: 12 years-10 years
All-star games: 15-12
All-NBA teams: 15-10 (Shaq had harder competition)
Better Peak: Shaq 2000-2002>Bird 84-86
Better PER and WS
More rings: 4 to 3
Better defender
-Shaq had 5 straight PER titles, and 10 FG% titles
Playoffs:
-Shaq's Pts, rebs, asts went up
-Bird's numbers declined in the playoffs
This is what Shaq did in the playoffs from 98-03:
31-10-3
27-12-2
31-15-3
30-15-3
29-13-3
27-15-4


If you just put up Shaq's first 13 seasons vs. Bird, it's no comparison.

Shaq averaged 26-12-3, 3 blks, 58 FG%, Better PER, better WS. In the playoffs he averaged 27-13-3.

I don't think anyone in history can compare to Shaq's 98-03 6 year prime other than MJ and Kareem.

[lorak]

Garnett's a more all-around player,

I disagree. Robertson was also great scorer, Garnett not.
Overall Robertson's impact wasn't much worse than Magic's.

[Baller 24]

I disagree. Robertson was also great scorer, Garnett not.
Overall Robertson's impact wasn't much worse than Magic's.

Garnett's also a significantly greater defender, Robertson's not. And if you're comparing Robertson to Magic, what "historic" offense has he exactly led? Garnett's '08 Celtics are a considered historically one of the best defensive teams of all-time.

[Baller 24]

Outside of his legend as part of the "Immortal 6", I don't see how Bird is ahead of Shaq, Kobe, or TD. His peak isn't better than Shaq's, and both Kobe & TD beat him in longevity, 2-way play, and playoff success.

However, you can definitely argue he's on par with Shaq in terms of his peak, and better than Duncan, and significantly better than that of Bryant. You can go through the 80s and literally pick out 3-4 years like you can with Shaq or Duncan, and you can say he was the best player in the league.

[An Unbiased Fan]

I'm not sure if I can put KG in before DRob. DRob was a better defensive anchor, better scorer, and comparable rebounder. Both guys struggled in the playoffs, and both won late in their careers. I'm curious, what does KG have over DRob?

Garnett was the clear cut best player on his championship run, and it can't even be debated.

For the regualr season, KG was the clear-cut best player. But....you mentioned championship run, and for the 08' playoffs, Pierce has equal if not better performances. Not only did Pierce win Finals MVP, but he also played fantastic defense against both Kobe & Lebron. In the Bos-Cle game 7, Pierce had 41 points to save that title run. In the closeout game against the Pistons IN Detroit, Pierce dropped 27.

But beyond that, I still don't see how KG was a better player than DRob.

[Vinsanity420]

Vote: Bird
Nominate: Oscar

[lorak]

I disagree. Robertson was also great scorer, Garnett not.
Overall Robertson's impact wasn't much worse than Magic's.

Garnett's also a significantly greater defender, Robertson's not.

And?
KG was also greater defender than Magic. Does it mean he was also more all around than Johnson?

And if you're comparing Robertson to Magic, what "historic" offense has he exactly led?

I hope I'll speak about it more when come time to votes for West and Robertson, now only that:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6205
and that:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7225

[An Unbiased Fan]

Outside of his legend as part of the "Immortal 6", I don't see how Bird is ahead of Shaq, Kobe, or TD. His peak isn't better than Shaq's, and both Kobe & TD beat him in longevity, 2-way play, and playoff success.

However, you can definitely argue he's on par with Shaq in terms of his peak, and better than Duncan, and significantly better than that of Bryant. You can go through the 80s and literally pick out 3-4 years like you can with Shaq or Duncan, and you can say he was the best player in the league.

You can look through the careers of about 6 of the candidates, and argue that they were the best players during a certain span. My problem is that we're talking semantics at that point.

I still think the 'Immortal 6" weighs heavy on people's minds, because if Wilt & Bird are taken with the next 2 picks, it stays intact. I really haven't heard any convincing arguments for Bird other than the "peak" arguemnt. And honsetly, that was a 3 year peak on one side of the court, and that didn't produce any more playoff success than Shaq, Kobe, TD had in similiar 3 year spans. And those guys had less support than Bird.

[Vinsanity420]

That Top offenses blog post reminds me - Dirk probably should get a mention for nominees too.

[fatal9]

Might as well make a post summing up Bird's 80s career. He's my favorite player of all-time just to put it out there.

1980 - Bird drafted to a 29 win team, despite being the only major addition, he turned the Celtics into a 61 win team in his first year. SRS swing of over 12 points (all-time level turnaround here with one major roster move). This is a testament to not only his great all around play/stats but how having a player like him can totally change the culture of a team.

1981 - wins title. The most impressive feat this season no doubt being leading his team back from a 1-3 deficit against the Sixers in the ECF. Averaged 27/13/5 for the series. He was extremely clutch in the final moments of all three of the last wins, hit a big shot in the last minute of game 5, had 18 timely second half points in game 6 and hit the series winning shot in game 7. In the finals he didn't shoot well, but at the same time you see the beauty in what makes Bird great. He led the series in assists with 7.0, almost outrebounded Moses with 15.3 rpg, and while he shot poorly in the middle of the series he had 18/21/9 in the game 1 win, then went out on the road shot lights out to close it out in the fourth quarter of game 6.

1982 - Great regular season, probably should have won MVP but played poorly in the playoffs.

1983 - Another solid season, but the team fizzled out in the playoffs. Bird had numerous issues in the Bucks series (which Bucks won 4-0). He had a groin injury, a dislocated finger on shooting hand and a bad case of the flu. He actually didn't even play in the game 2 (so technically he wasn't "swept") and had his minutes limited somewhat when he came back. His game logs from that series:

G1: 17/10/4 (7/17 FG)
G2: DNP
G3: 21/14/6/6 (10/22 FG)
G4: 18/11/8 (9/20 FG)


1984 - After the disappointment of '83, he comes back with a vengeance this year. Won his first MVP, and in the playoffs he killed everyone. Knicks in the ECSF? Averaged 30/11/7 on 65 TS% over 7 games including an epic game 7 performance. Against the Bucks (a team he destroyed every time he faced for rest of his career) in the ECF, he put up 27/10/6 on 61 TS%. In the finals he put up 27/14/4 on 59 TS%. After what looked like a series they were going to lose, Bird called out his team, in the next game he hit the game winning shot over Magic, and then in the following pivotal game 5 he put up 34/17 (on 15/20 shooting) to wrestle away control of the series. This finals performance had it all, great all around performance, clutchness, grit and leadership (and a hint of help from Tragic).

1985 - After what was a ridiculous regular season that saw him average 29/11/7 on 59 TS% and win MVP, he picked an elbow injury on his shooting arm in the playoffs. Initially he played well but as the playoffs wore on his shooting got much worse. That Sixers series right before the finals is one of the worst I've ever seen from him shooting wise (he could not hit jumpshots for the life of him). It may be an excuse, but it's well documented. Still an alright playoff run, good in the first two rounds, poor in the last two rounds shooting wise.

1986 - His peak, definitely. Don't let the regular season averages fool you, they were "only" 26/10/7 but he was recovering from a back injury in the first month or so (check the splits). The stretch of basketball from Jan '86-'June'86 he played was unbelievable. Triple doubles galore, dominated everything that came his way, maybe the best stretch of basketball I've seen anyone play. Averaged 28/8/8 on 53% vs. Bulls, 27/10/6 on 53% vs. Hawks, 25/10/8 on 55% vs. Bucks and then almost a "triple double" finals series 24/9.7/9.5 against the Rockets. It was complete mastery of the game, and the level he reached can't be explained or even quantified by stats, you need to just watch the games.

1987 - Posted 28/9/8 on 61 TS%. Stats are absolutely sick, some of the best to not win MVP but that's how great Magic was that year. 27/10/7 on 58 TS% in the playoffs. Swept MJ's Bulls in the first round (including outplaying young MJ in the fourth quarter of the elimination game, he put in 15 pts, MJ didn't even hit a shot...and Bulls were up going in to the period). Averaged 30/10/7 against the Bucks over 7 games (check out highlights from the first game: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lnr-eFaXozw). Then 27/10/8 against the Pistons, including 36/10/7 over the final three games when the series was tied 2-2. This might be the best series anyone has managed against the Pistons from '87-'90? Outplayed heavily by Magic in the finals, though one was coming into the series after back to back 7 game series and a team with a host of injuries, while the other had a healthy team behind him and was fresh after sweeping through the West while facing .500 teams.

1988 - 30/9/6 on 50/40/90...the highest volume ever for a 50/40/90 season. Bird I thought had noticeably slowed down, this season ended up being his best statistically only because the team needed him to do more (injuries + age catching up with them). IMO should have won MVP. After delivering big in the game 7 vs. Hawks and outdueling Nique in the fourth quarter, he ended up having the worst shooting series of his career (something like 35% iirc) against the Pistons. Literally did not have a single good shooting game though he did other things well that helped him make an impact. This most certainly was a failure. No reported injuries to Bird himself (there were some injury issues with the team however), only fatigue I can see as being a problem but as a player you have to battle through that in the playoffs.

Regarding game 7s, Bird may be the only one who belongs with Russell as the best game 7 performer ever. Here are some highlights from his great game 7 performances:

1981 ECF vs. Sixers - hits game winning shot to send the Celtics to the finals (had 23/11/5/5 overall in the game).

1984 ECSF vs. Knicks - 39/12/10, dominates his matchup with King.

1987 ECF vs. Pistons - 37/9/9 including scoring or assisting on all but two points in the last 6 minutes of the game.

1987 ECSF vs. Bucks - 31/10/8, 13 of them in the fourth quarter of a very close game.

1988 ECSF vs. Hawks - Outduels Nique by scoring 20 pts in the fourth quarter, made 9 of 10 shots. Celtics needed every single one of those points to pull out the win as well.

In his prime years, Bird lost just one game 7 in 1982 vs. Sixers (record 6-1 in them). He brought it in these games.

So in the end...

The positives? His legendary prime from '84-'86 which is there with anyone (as well as years like '87 and '88). Has some of the best overall winning percentage in history, and he brought the winning culture in himself after being drafted by a lottery team. Has some amazing playoff runs with legendary game 7/clutch performances (though to be fair and his share of failures). One of the top 3 greatest offensive players ever, who also happened to be a very good team defender.

The negatives? His durability, especially in some playoff runs like '83, '85 and then later on his back/ankle problems after '88. He was still averaging 20/10/7 at 35 but combined with his injuries and the fact he entered the NBA at 23, his prime is much shorter than guys like Shaq and Duncan. He does have some failures on his resume like everyone does, specifically '82, '88 ('83 and '85 if you include years when he was injured).

Re Magic - One thing to keep in mind when discussing them is their situations. Magic came on a team with the best player in the NBA, that could contend without him, had also added Cooper/Haywood/Chones in his rookie year to fix glaring weaknesses (perimeter defense and the PF spot). Bird came on a lottery team with no all-stars and led a massive turnaround. Magic played in a run and gun conference with weak defensive teams, Bird played in the more physical/slower East with much better competition year to year. In two of their finals matchup, Bird had injury issues in '85 while the entire team was injured in '87 (McHale broken foot, Parish/DJ ankle injuries, Walton out, fatigue from back to back 7 game series while Lakers beat up on weak teams in the West). Magic was not the best player for the first two rings, and arguably 1A/1B in his third ring, Bird was clearly the best for all three. That said, I have no problem with Magic being ranked in front of him, his career turned out better but I don't necessarily think he was better.


Not sure who to vote for between Shaq, Bird, Hakeem and Duncan. Will wait till later.

[ElGee]

Garnett and Robinson are extremely similar as far as rankings. Veeeeerrrry interesting argument.

I don't have David Robinson within a country mile of Garnett, and I'll explain why in detail when we get there. Statistically, they are similar, but in essence, KG is a player who provided extreme value outside standard stats, and D-Rob lost a lot of his value in the PS outside of standard stats, and did so on a regular basis. Very different to me, despite numerical similarities. (For perspective, I have D-Rob as ~top 25 peak, well below KG.)

[ThunderDan9]

Vote: Larry Bird
Nominate: Charles Barkley

[pancakes3]

just to add to fatal's post - Bird's "dominance" during his prime is less what he did but rather how he did it. he was a fantastic rebounder at the SF position, able to top 10+ boards with elite frontcourt talent around him. he was a phenomenal passer, and could do so without monopolizing the ball (career 6.3 apg without ever playing pg? absurd). he played the game within the flow of basketball and only forced the issue when it was necessary. he wasn't a floor general like magic, or an athletic freak like MJ but he still managed to play the purest basketball anyone's ever seen. i don't have a problem with him going 5 but i do have a problem when people poo-poo the "immortal six" as if it's an antiquated and arbitrary grouping. no. those 6 guys are balls-out better. there has been nobody since MJ to dominate the game the same way that those 6 guys have - winning multiple rings and championships with such over-the-top dominance that everyone else is playing for 2nd place. Not Duncan, not Shaq, not even Kobe. With Shaq his dominance was woefully short especially given the context of his "long" career, with Duncan it was not nearly dominant enough, and Kobe came too little too late. Lebron is ringless and until further notice, gutless as well. I see no reason why the immortal 6 until proven otherwise is a fraudulent ideal.

[ElGee]

Fatal with just a ridiculously awesome post (again). I'll add that he broke his hand in a bar fight in 1985, which severely affected his shooting through the rest of the Philly series. And in 1982 Tiny dislocated his shoulder, changing the Philly series. If I had three bullets about Bird, they would be:

(1) One of the GOAT offensive players (and 2nd-best passer of all-time IMO)
(2) Totally underrated as a team defender (amazing defensive rebounder)
(3) Much better before his peak than I realized (better defender, larger team role on offense than even apg/ppg suggest)

Of all the guys in the top-5, I see him as perhaps the greatest basketball savant. He's only really losing out to them because of durability/longevity. As fatal said, some of the value the dude imparted just has to be seen...the numbers don't really do it justice.