theboomking wrote:The Consiglieri wrote:What would be the cost of moving up to get Davis if we are hosed in the lottery, from 4, 3, 2 or 1? What do you think? I have a feeling we'll be finishing with the absolute worst, or 2nd worst record, but thats only giving us a 30+ or 25+ percent chance to get him, if we drop, what will it cost?
I am also curious about this. Problem is, we have very few trade assets. I'm in favor of locking up McGee to a front loaded deal so we at least have him as a trade chip. I still believe McGee's best value to the team is as a trade chip. From 4 to 1? I don't think anyone would trade down from first to the fourth slot, the way Anthony Davis is playing. No if you pick second, you might be able to swap up if some team is tantalized by Drummond's potential.
I doubt it too, which is why its imperative to really, really suck. We have to be worst in the league bad so that the most likely scenario is we land a top 2-3 pick. If we're there, we're relatively okay, and more often than not, the worst team usually lands a top 3 pick, not the worst case scenario 4th overall, and quite often a top 2. I think a top 3 pick allows for a trade up but like you I can only imagine Vesely, Singleton, Wall, and McGee and future unprotected (to some degree) #1's being the only assets that could move us to #1. I dont know which players it would take. The contenders for the #1 pick in my view are:
The Anthony Davis or Bust Crew:
1. Us-we look clearly to be the worst team period, and only have about 14-15 games that you'd give us a 50/50 coin flips chance of winning over the last 53 games (i say that not expecting us to go .250 the rest of the way, but rather to suggest how many games match us up against teams and in situations (rested) where we'd have a decent chance of winning, rather than be screwed). We will of course win a game or two or three that none of us would expect us to win, but probably do no better than split the winnable games, dropping us in my view to a team with a ceiling of probably 15-51, what's the floor? I'd argue probably 8-58, and the expectation is about 11-55.
Expectation: Should be worst, especially with trade deadline deals of dead weight and cancers.
2. Charlotte 3-12
Generally picked along with us, Toronto and Sacramento to suck out loud and form the basis of the bottom four.
Expectation: Wont be worst. A little too much mid-level talent and too little knucklehead factor to plumb those depths.
3. Toronto 4-8
Currently outperforming expectations, awful roster, no difference makers, kind of like Wizards North, except unlike us, when faced with a miserable draft that might not help them, they still took the best guy on the board rather than trade the pick for some bench scrubs.
Expectation: While they should be truly horrible, they aren't playing like it. Wont be worst.
4. Sacramento: 4-10
Much like the Wizards, the rebuild seems to have gone astray, unlike us, they didn't deal crucial picks for useless vets who'd be a free agent in a year. Potential for implosion huge with Cousins around, however Westphal's canning may let the steam out of that stress.
Expectation: Could easily swing a 0-15 streak, and finish last. A threat.
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Dark Horse Contenders:
5. Detroit: 3-11
Going nowhere, not much talent, have completely imploded, much like Sacramento, could swing a massive month long collapse without a problem.
Expectation: Will be bad, but won't be bad enough.
6. New Jersey 3-11
Williams disappointing, team in flux, a waiting game for Howard, and maybe a fantasy at that.
Expectation: Too much pride to trade Williams, they have room to stink. Will finish top 3-5 worst. Just not there right now.
7. Milwaukee 4-9
Dark horse crummy contender, they could really plunge low and fast, particularly with simply 1 or 2 injuries to particular players.
Expectation: I think they will climb into the bottom 5 or 6 by the end of the year.
8. New Orleans 3-10
Supposed to be awful after Paul trade but they got nice nice pieces in that deal and it should allow them to unfortunately (for them) climb out of the bottom of the beast.
Who would be the best fits for these teams? I think these are the likely locks for the bottom eight. I have a hard time seeing us finish any better then 28th, 29th or 30th overall in record, 30th is the better bet for now. One of the few positives is it does seem as if teams like Toronto, New Jersey and Sacramento aren't necessairly the best fits for Davis, while Charlotte and Detroit would keep the pick no matter what. I do believe all teams would be inclined to keep Davis regardless of the scenario in play, but in the worst case scenario that we fall, I'd prefer a team like Toronto, New Jersey or Sacramento to be the team in that slot to at least give us a potential shot at a deal up.
My top 5 for now:
1. Davis
2. MKG
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3. Drummond
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4. Thomas Robinson
5. Sully or PJIII (PJIII only after mental make up interview that he would have to pass with flying colors)
for the #1 pick.
