eyriq wrote:Awesome article and I am very glad to hear advancement for the Don't Trade Dwight meme. Too much logic and sense supporting the Magic riding this out.
The Magic are good but that shouldn't be a surprise and if people were moderate about their view of Orlando they'd realize that we've not exceeded expectations at all, nor have we proven we are a tier one team in the East like Miami or Chicago, but are instead still teetering on the fringe between legit contender or dark horse. Now, should Nelson and JRich get going we are elevated into the top tier all othe thigngs staying the same, but the staying the same bit is a chemistry issue and who knows how'd that pan out. IMO there is a transition taking place in our teams player hierarchy, and until that gets settled I will remain uncomfortable. Probability tells me that Dwight wanting a trade will fade, that Nelson and JRich will trend back to the mean, that Redick and Anderson are legit, and that Hedo will be huge for us. All of this means we are contenders and a tier one team, but there is still issues to settle.
I agree with the stuff you said before the last couple of sentences. Here is what seems most probable to me:
-- Dwight keeps putting up 20/20 games on a regular basis, lets his trade demand stand until the deadline, and refuses to talk about it after that. Then in the off-season I see the chances as 33% that he leaves, 33% that he extends with us, and 33% that he picks up the option for the last year of his current contract and we do this all over again next year.
-- Nelson eventually gets back to playing well against teams with weak defensive PGs and continues to struggle against the Kirk Hinrichs of the world. If nothing else, his shooting touch has to come back at some point.
-- J-Rich gets back to being a high-quality spot-up shooter that does little else of value.
-- JJ continues to develop as a complete offensive player. My hope (though not really an expectation for this year) is that once he gets really confident in his playmaking, his perimeter shooting percentages will jump from "good" to "elite." In any event, JJ's ability to develop into a guy who can create against good defenses is key to our chances to compete.
-- Ryan averages around 15ppg across the length of the season, giving us solid meat-and-potatoes scoring for three quarters but frequently disappearing in 4th quarters.
-- Turk does not sustain the kind of productivity we've seen thus far this season. He's just not fit enough to maintain that level of play for more than a few weeks at a time.
So, I'm slightly less optimistic than you, eyriq, but still not a doom-and-gloomer. I definitely would rather get one last year of competing with Dwight than trade him for anything less than what NOLA got for CP3 (which I judge to be way better than the original trade that got nixed).
