The Consiglieri wrote:Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Consiglieri, I don't get paid for it but I know more than a lot of NBA scouts. I think they're wrong.
Would you rather have Chris Singleton or Kenneth Faried? Or Marshon Brooks? Would you rather have Jan Vesely or Kawhi Leonard? Would you rather have the rights to Rubio or Steph Curry; or would have you have rather acquired Mike Miller and Randy Foye and have nothing to show?
If drafting Drummond could enable the Wizards to offload Blatche (thus saving $ and preserving good chemistry), and acquire Zeller (who will be a very effective stretch 4 or 5 in the LaMarcus Aldridge mold), and get a future pick; that beats acquiring Drummond.
I keep hearing about how great Beal and MKG will be and I think they may not become any better than Will Barton because Barton has a winning background and some pretty unique skills.
Every year I get into a discussion about the scouts and what they think and how they know more than I do. Tell you what. Between Nivek, Dat, doc, and myself to be immodest; we can do just as well. Honestly, I truly believe I'm one of the best. Ed Weiland and the great YODA crunch numbers better, but I know what I know and I've been at this a while. It's not my first rodeo.
So, forgive my arrogance, but to a point I use all the mocks and go by what I feel. Using consensus and blending in with my gut gives me insight to all but the private information only physicals and extensive background checks, and private interviews don't tell. Just from being around, I bet I could REALLY be good at this with that information.
Bottom Line: MKG and Beal are 19 years old each. They may be great, great players one day. The same may be said next year, for guys like Shabazz Muhammed and Nerlens Noel. There may be someone like Doug McDermott available when the Wizards draft next season. He's going to be a very effective NBA player. I think some moves need to be strategic. I don't think MKGs offense is all that refined. I don't think Beal's size and strength will lead him to greatness for 3 years. OTOH, Barton is long and a slasher and he's going to be a better pro than imagined by most scouts IMO.
All do respect, I really don't think you do. If you had the assets, and the time, and the career, I really think you could be, but I definitely don't think you are. Paul Milsap (before my time), Faried (everyone here dug him once they researched a little, though you definitely deserve credit for digging him up first (does that mean i deserve credit for propping Luck in the summer of '09, and RG3 as a dark horse for the redskins in 2010?), you've had guys you looked at, and loved, you've dug through the players and found pet projects you really loved who turned out (
and guys like Almond who didnt, I don't judge you for it,
Almond's issues may be opportunity rather than talent, and besides, I loved Amobi Okoye, over Laron Landy (then again, I did correctly surmize that fellow DE, Jamal Anderson did not have the stuff to be a great DE at the next level, regardless of what scouts said)), but scouts, and cross checkers (thinking of baseball, and imagining that NBA teams aren't that different, i bet they have something similar to regional cross checkers etc), of gusy that run stuff like blesto or whatever in the NFL, these guys look at thousands of players, not just a pet few, or 10 or 20, like we do, or 40 or 50 like the more obsessive of us do. I think it's a different kind of thing to actually do it for a career, and I tend to think we forget our misses a lot more than our hits. What did we think of the 2000 draft. Did we sniff out that it was a giant pile of manure at the time, that nobody out of that draft (basically how in the hell did every basketball player born in 1978 or 1982 generally, suck?) was going to turn into something special, and very few would even turn into something adequate? Many knew it wasn't great, few knew it would be the worst just about in history.
I tend to doubt that you're right about measuring the value of what we can do. The only guy i really agree on is Drummond, though Im at a loss about Drummond, as he has a few of the most alarming defficiencies a player can have, he lacks a great motor, and doesn't seem to really love the game, and he doesnt seem to have a great BBIQ either. What's strange is that he works hard and produces defensively. That is something that is exceptionally rare for players, and almost never present in players with weak motors, and a lack of love for the game. He is confounding and I don't want him except that Im deeply intrigued by the fact that he has the highest potential of anyone in the draft other than Davis, but the problem, as you know, and everyone else does, is there is huge potential that he could not live up to the hype, and/or become such a colossal pain in the neck that his talent aint worth the trouble anyway.
However, as the recent article at SI mentioned,
scouts think this draft is 4 guys deep, with a fifth wild card. I half agree with them, I also think a guy like PJ3 technically has the raw ability to be the star. I think there is no point whatsoever in dumping contracts with the pick, and getting solid role players. It gets us nowhere. There is no point in that. I would gladly trade our seconds, and pieces (I would gladly add a future #1) to move back into the top 10-15 to get another one of these players, i love the depth aspect in this draft, and next years draft could really suck (though there are a bunch of small forwards with some decent upside), but we have to come out of this draft with a piece that represents actual elite upside. That isn't represented in the guys you mentioned. Right now, this team probably has a 30+ win upside, add some role players, and maybe you get 38-44, but its still chum for the Heat, Pacers, and other 1-4 type seeds, and you no longer are in position to acquire an elite player from the draft. This draft features 1 guy with franchise changing talent, 2-3 guys with a possiblity of having it (MKG, Drummond, PJ3), another 2 guys with very good or better upside (Beal, and Robinson), and then that next tier. The next tier isn't good enough. We have a lot of role players, and solid guys already, we don't have many franchise changing players, period, we may not actually have ANY, if Wall doesn't turn out.
I respect your talent, and think you have a genuine eye for talent, but you've got a scouting mindset rather than a teambuilding one, which is why I'd hire you as a scout, but not a GM if I was an owner.