aaqubed wrote:coldfish wrote:I just want to say:
- +Duck on a bunch of things. One in particular is his comment about a rebuild based around a rookie. Most guys don't get to where they are going to be until their 3rd, maybe 4th year and only then do you find out if they guy was really worth it. You are burning a lot of Derrick's time.
I don't think that's true entirely. You might not get the most out of the player, but you'll know if the player would have been worth it pretty quickly. We knew what we had with Rose pretty much the first season -- it wasn't clear that he'd be THIS good THIS quickly, but we knew what he was. Same with Deng, Gordon, Tyrus (in a negative way). The only one that wasn't clear right away was Noah, who was on that trainwreck 2008 team.
I don't mean to speak for coldfish, but I don't think that is what he meant. He wasn't talking about "knowing what you have" i.e., being able to see that the guy can develop. He was talking about how long until you know if he was "worth it." I.e., how long until a rookie becomes better for the Bulls likelihood of success than a 28 - 31 year old Luol Deng.
There are two ways this can go:
(1) The pick ends up like most picks, and is worse than Deng. So unless something else huge breaks in the talent department, you've screwed the pooch.
(2) The pick is the rare exception that ends up better than a 28-31 year old Deng, but it takes at least 3 years for him to get that good. So while you end up with a better player, you've made Derrick Rose play on a worse team for 3 precious years.
This is not a wise use of Deng as a trade asset. And its born of annual draft hysteria and an overly emotional fan response to a postseason failed by unjuries.