Even though every time I read one of those articles with predictions for this upcoming season, I hope for somebody to finally say something good about the Wizards, I can't honestly expect anyone to put us anywhere but in the bottom 5 of the Eastern Conference.
The sad reality is we've been a terrible franchise over the last few years, and it's given a terrible image. Furthermore, we've lost a ton of games in the last few seasons, so there's little reason to expect anything different from us until we actually go out there and prove it, and in a meaningful and significant way for a prolonged period of time, to the point where there's no denying that we're at least decent.
Listen, we have already clearly established on these boards that there's reason for hope, and that post-trade (and ESPECIALLY when Nene was active), we not only had a much better W-L record, but we posted straight up INCREDIBLE defensive efficiency stats, which are some of the most meaningful stats out there, IMO. But at the same time, we all know there were extenuating circumstances. It was a small sample size post-trade. It was an even smaller sample size with Nene in the lineup. Those famous last 6 games could very well be the result of the opposing teams resting their better players and not playing hard because they had no incentive to play hard. You can decide for yourself which of those points you believe in, one way or the other, that's not what's important. But at the end of the day, even if you want to believe in all of those stats (I personally am willing to buy in, except for perhaps the 6 wins in the last 6 games, but we played very well in those games statistically), you can't forget that if that's the case, that's the absolute best case scenario that we're looking at. Sure, it's possible it was all legitimate. But most likely 1 or 2 of those things, at the very least, were misleading about our skills at the time and our skills going forward. So just keep that in mind, and try not to get too carried away.
However, with that said, I am incredibly optimistic about this team, and I expect us to make the playoffs this year (or miss out by literally 1 or 2 games at most). The main reason I'm a believer in this team is our defensive efficiency stats from last season. Nate has posted them several times over the last month or two, and he's laid it out very simply, so for the most part, I'm not even going to try and replicate that. I believe our defensive efficiency stats post-trade put as at something like 7th best in the league, and our defensive efficiency stats with Nene in the lineup would have put us at 1st in the league by a large margin. The stats we put up with Nene in 11 games are most likely partly the effect of a small sample size, as well as the fact that several of those games came in those infamous final 6 wins to end the season. BUT, even if that is the case, it's only partially effecting the big picture. Okay maybe we wouldn't have lead the league by a large margin, or maybe we wouldn't have even lead the league, but I'd like to think we're better defensively with Nene than without, and if we were anything close to 7th best without him, then surely we could be top 5 with him.
The top 5 teams in defensive efficiency are always damn good teams. This last season, it went like this:
1. Bulls (1 seed)
2. Celtics (4 seed)
3. 76ers (8 seed)
4. Heat (2 seed)
5. Knicks (7 seed)
The year before it went like this:
1. Bulls (1 seed)
2. Celtics (3 seed)
3. Magic (4 seed)
4. Bucks (9th place, 2 games back) (although had a negative efficiency differential, as their offense was literally last in the NBA)
5. Heat (2 seed)
The year before it went like this:
1. Magic (2 seed)
2. Bobcats (7 seed)
3. Heat (5 seed)
4. Bucks (6 seed)
5. Celtics (4 seed) / Lakers (1 seed)
Check out this website if you want to look at more years and more numbers:
http://www.hoopdata.com/teamadvancedsta ... 12&type=pgHopefully you get my point by now. If you have a top 5 defensive efficiency, chances are you're going to make the playoffs, even if your offensive efficiency is god awful. Also, I don't know if there's an explanation for this or not, but it's interesting how the top 5 teams for the last 3 years have ALL been from the Eastern Conference, other than the Lakers tying for 5th 3 years ago. Just noticed that for the first time.
Anyways, this is what I'm hoping for. A truly elite defense. Those numbers that nate has talked about that I referenced before about our defensive efficiency stats post-trade and w/ Nene are a really good sign of things to come. And don't forget, that's what we did without Okafor (a very good defender), without Ariza (a pretty solid defender), without Price (okay, let's be real, who cares about Price), and without Beal (who sounds like he could be okay on D, but the jury's still out on this one obviously). In theory, our defense should be better now than it was last year with these players on board. Even if last year's numbers were a freak statistic accident, the reality is our defense will be better than it was before we got these guys, the question is how much better? We also have a full offseason to establish defensive schemes and technicalities and whatnot, which is huge for us given how many key players we have that weren't with us last offseason, and how many young players who really could have benefited from a real full offseason as opposed to what they had last year. Not to mention it wasn't completely with Wittman, anyways. Then go ahead and throw in the possibility of noticeable improvement on defense (and everything else, to be fair) from guys like Wall, Seraphin, Singleton, and Vesely. Hell, I hate the guy, but who knows, maybe even Jordan Crawford will come back with something better to offer.
What it all adds up to is a defense that will be better (possibly much better) than what we had last year (even at the end of the season). It's definitely partly the optimist/homer in me, but I really believe this team can be one of the elite teams in defensive efficiency this coming season, which will lead us to a playoff birth.
