Post#133 » by LittleOzzy » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:40 pm
This is tense. We have been hurt by the fact that none of the games between Honduras/Panama/Cuba have resulted in draws.
So. Cuba are virtually eliminated (there is a scenario where they could win all their games, and everyone else draws in all other games, that gets them through, but it's farfetched). I am assuming Cuba will lose out. I am certainly sure Honduras will beat Cuba Tuesday.
If we win Tuesday: we are on 10 points, and a win against Cuba would put us through, as both Honduras and Panama cannot reach 13 points.
If we draw Tuesday: Canada would be on 8 points, and Panama and Honduras would be on 7 points, with 2 games to go. If Canada then beats Cuba, we are on 11, with Honduras and Panama playing the same night. If there were a result in the Panama-Honduras game, leaving one team on 7 points, we would be through. In the event of a draw in the Panama-Honduras game, there would be the chance of a 3 way tie on 11 points (if Panama beat Cuba and Honduras beat Canada on the last day). This scenario is not so farfetched, and the head-to-head records would be identical (with everybody having beaten Cuba twice). So goal differential would come into it. We need to keep an eye on this, we may need goals in the Cuba game.
If we lose Tuesday, we will wake up in third place (Panama 9, Honduras 7, Canada 7 but behind Honduras on goal differential), and will therefore, even if we beat Cuba at home, almost certainly need a result in Honduras (at least a draw, and possibly a win, depending on goal differential)
To recap: with a win Tuesday, we definitely can clinch against Cuba. With a draw, we have a decent chance of clinching against Cuba. With a loss, we will probably need to both beat Cuba and get a draw or better in Honduras.
Tuesday's game is for all the marbles.
