The Consiglieri wrote:I would trade out for '14, not sure who'd be stupid enough to do that, but I'm sure you could swing a deal with someone whose sure they'll be in the playoffs and worried for their job (basically, another E.G.). There are a few guys I'd consider drafting at slot: Bennett, Len, Muhammad, but after that I'd trade the pick for '14 ammo. '14 draft is miles better, and if those guys are gone, I'd just rather have ammo to trade up with, and go with what we have, which appeared to be a 44-48 win team if its healthy in '13-'14.
This has almost no chance of happening with the number of protected 2014 picks already traded and the Stepien Rule, which won't allow teams to get into positions where they
could owe picks in consecutive years.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/summary/2014You'll see that Charlotte, Dallas, Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Portland and Sacramento have protected picks out next year already. The protection is such that only a very few of them are likely to be confered, so getting them from the team holding them is more likely going to mean getting a 2015-2017 pick rather than a 2014 pick.
Outside of those teams, Orlando, Phoenix and Utah aren't going to trade 2014 picks under any plausible circumstances, being open tankers (Utah said "we're willing to take a step back next year"; unusual for them).
I would see Cleveland as a dark horse here, but possibly interested in trading their 2014 pick. They just hired an expensive coach, so I'd expect they'll try and be competitive next year. They have over $20 million in cap space too.
Toronto would consider it, though probably for a veteran difference maker or to move Bargs for someone moderately useful. However, if their starters are healthy, they're a legit threat for the 8th seed.
Charlotte might consider trading the Detroit pick, but the Pistons should have over $40 million to spend in free agency and their owner just said "we're going to spend". Huge risk in trading for that pick and it's not going to be top 8 next year under any circumstances, though it has a fair chance at being 11th or so.
Milwaukee has lots of cap space and probably goes for the 8th seed. They could consider trading their pick.
Boston is uncertain from a direction standpoint as core players could retire, but not much will be known as of June 27th.
Am I missing anyone relevant to the 2014 lottery discusion?
The problem is then that you'd have to work out a deal for a 2014 pick with just a very limited number of probable lottery teams to choose from, almost all of which have cap-space and with wild swings possible in their fortunes based on who they sign. Likewise, if it's 2014 or bust, you have to work out the protection to where you actually get the pick in 2014, which is a major issue in and of itself; not many future picks get conferred the year right after they were traded. Lastly, teams that trade their picks are highly likely to pick up wins in April (this happened to OKC with the Raps pick this year).
These are just massive constraints and/or downside risks that make the likelihood of this sort of transaction highly suspect. It's not a bad strategy in a vacuum, but it's not at all probable.
