stevemcqueen1 wrote:Prediction time:
I think the top four picks in the draft will be Noel, Zeller, Burke, and McLemore. Burke and Zeller are going to go higher than people currently think. Burke is a legit #1 overall candidate. They were the two best players in the country this year and they've got definite NBA tools.
I think claims that Shabazz will fall out of the lottery are ridiculous. His stock is stable somewhere in the top ten. If Waiters can go 4, then he will go in the lottery. If I were San Antonio, I would trade up for him. I think he could go 7 to Detroit.
I think that Len will be overdrafted and probably be the highest drafted guy who disappoints. Consequently, I think we are going to be the ones to draft him.
I think Porter is going to go later than people expect. I don't think there is any chance he goes top four like people think. I think he ends up in the 6-9 range.
I think Bennett is going to drop and be a relative steal. The injury and the maturity questions are the reasons he will drop. I think he's going to be one of the top scorers from this class.
I think McCollum is going to go much higher than people are considering him right now. He'll go somewhere in the top 8 and people will be like, WTF? Then he'll score 18 or 19 PPG as a rookie and people will be like, Oh.
Don't know quite what to make of Oladipo. He should be good. But I can see him ending up being a way worse shooter than people expect. It literally would not surprise me if he ends up being the best player from the class, or a bit of a disappointment and a career role player.
I think Olynyk is going to go outside the top ten, probably at the end of the lottery or just outside and I think he won't end up being a long term starter.
Dieng is going to be a good career backup.
I think Adams is going to be overdrafted and bust. I get a bad vibe about his intangibles. Seems like a guy who has coasted on natural ability his whole life, who isn't the self starter that loves the game like some of the other top guys. Seems like he's going to get paid and then never realize his potential.
And of course, someone bizarre is going to go way higher than people expect. Happens every year. The Cavs will probably be the ones doing the reaching, and then that guy will end up actually being decent.
First off, while we agree on a lot of things, I'd be utterly shocked if Zeller went higher than 8th, really stunned is probably the better word. I expect him to go between 8 and 12. I'd argue there's a 3-5% chance that you're right on that.
The other three guys were mostly agreed upon. I think Noel's a lock to go #1 or #2 with the only caveat being.
I see the top 3 playing out along Noel, McLemore, and Burke lines. I think Noel and McLemore easily go top 3 because they are consensus best players in the draft, evaluated. Burke is the best point, and it definitely sounds like some of the bottom of the barrel squads looking for a point, will seriously consider him if their primary target is off the board (and in one case, period).
That's the big 3 in my view.
The next tier sounds like quite clearly Bennett, Porter, and Oladipo. Regardless of what some people may think here, it clearly sounds like the consensus in league circles is that Bennett is one of only three players in this draft that has a reasonable chance at being not just good, but great, at least in some aspects of the game. Porter is the one that could really fall, pending how some of the risers perform in workouts, and how they respond to the combine. I think Porter is the breath easy pick, the plug and play, and there's no wild card situation, you get yourself a competent starter, maybe above league average at his position, but if teams that are inclined to take him seriously as an option drop or rise really high in the lottery, he could fall because wild cards like Len, Rudy, etc could tempt a team w/their unusual potential.
Oladipo killed it in the combine, had a great final year, and said all the right things about why his shooting numbers improved so dramatically, he could climb to top 3.
It's after these six that things get really weird. I think anything could actually happen after in that 7-14 territory because all of the guys in that region have so many warts in their game, so many liabilities.
I honestly have no idea who we like, none, though the local press seems to have nailed what we've been interested in repeatedly in drafts, and if they're right, it's a lock we go small forward or big, Burke is off of our board in that situation.
