NYC...
That was some reply and I want to say that I really appreciate all the time and effort you put into it. Respect!
A few things of course I am going to challenge.
1- I do not deny that Wall is not a good shooter. I said he improved. 3 years in the NBA there is a progression.
.409, .423, .441. A progression in ft%... .766, .789. 804. 3pt shooting is still abysmal...no question. But you do realize...HE IS 22!
2- You gave me a lot of info on the season. Wall was BAD when he first came back from injury. And that had to be when you saw him play Because the last 25 games of the year? The guy was fantastic. 23ppg/5 reb/8 ast. He shot .466/.792. About 1.5 steals and game and close to a block a game. if you were watching...there was an eye popping NOTICABLE explosion in his game.
3- And yes...those last 25 games...I have very little to say about Beal or anyone else on that team offensively. Even those numbers you game me werent all that. Also realize that as Wall drew attention made it a lot easier for those guys to get open looks. If you were watching you could see his impact on offense. His own...and his team's. His play was truly up by a wide margin.
4- I wont deal with advanced over rated stats for D. I hope you understand...but so much of that is straight BS. I watch Deron. I see a slow guy who is out of position OFTEN. I agree with your point about Wall taking some unencessary chances at times. But agian...22 years old, 3 years into the league and the guy is fast as lightning, creates TO's and clearly defensively him on the floor vs., NOT on the floor that team had a massive difference in points allowed. I did watch. I did see the hustle and energy. I did see the impact he has. He has to polish that up still. Still learning. But Deron is already on the poor side of D...and at 29 next season...it only goes down hill from here.
5- You said: "Yeah, but the S&T point was not referring to Wall at all. It was referring to the players who you said we could trade for using JJ and/or Wallace's expiring contracts. Most of the superstars are going to hit free agency rather than attempt to be traded before their deal is up. It's more attractive for the superstar guys to do that for this CBA."
I really dont think it was what you were referring to. I thought you were saying we couldnt trade for Wall because it would require an S&T. That is why I replied the way I did. That we trade for him now so that it isnt an issue. As for what you just said. What players did I say we could trade JJ or Crash for? I NEVER said anything about other superstars. I said King is going to trade those guys for the next Boozer of the world...the next JJ. That is what you get for fat expiring contracts. You get longer deals that other teams want to dump.
Overall...honestly what you just said above? Not sure what you are trying to refer to so maybe we can clarify it.
I will take a shot at it. You mention superstars. Which I do not see us getting by trade since we dont have the assets. But as for what happens with those star contracts, their teams deal them when they do not think they can re-sign them or they think its NOT worth resigning them. See Deron, Melo, etc. Some of that changes now under the new CBA (as for when to make that deal if at all)...but either way, doesnt effect us. We arent in contention for these guys unless we are giving up Deron or Lopez NOW which defeats the point you were trying to make.
6- You wrote: "We'd be in the exact same position with replacing D-Will with Wall, except now taking on Nene we'd have an additional cap hold to deal with in 2016. I don't see how this helps the case for Wall because if you throw Nene in there it only further complicates the issue when he becomes a free agent.
Also, no one knows what a 33yo D-Will be like. With the way many of these older stars are transitioning well into their mid-to-late 30s, I don't think the last year of a 33yo D-Will (if healthy) would stop a player from wanting to come here."
I dont think you understood me. I am not trying to create more cap space. I am saying you were wrong that you DONT have as much cap space as you think you do. So I am trying to spend it differently than you. Instead of letting Lopez simply walk and have 40% of the cap committed to 34 year old Deron as you try to and recruit Durant to take 25 mil less than he can get from the Thunder...I opted to deal NOW. Keep Lopez at 28 and have 25 year old Wall locked up. I think the idea that we are going to be in the recruiting market in 2016 is a pipe dream. I would love that. But I dont see it happening. Certainly not if we still have an older and much declined Deron.
And that last part? We dont know what 33 year old Deron will be???? And not stopping a guy from coming here? You arent being realistic at all on this part. On this part I call BULLSSH!$T (no offense). Younger stars want to team up with comparable age stars. You know that. Why sign with a team for vastly less cash to play with a guy heavily in his decline years? And yeah...Deron slow, often injured now....coming to camp out of shape...this isnt Kobe. Who btw as good as he is...Dwight STILL didnt want to team up with him...and yeah as good as Kobe is he IS declined. Same with Dirk. Deron is going to fade before your eyes. Just like Kidd did. Sure, Kidd could still play at a high level. But yeah watching him guard Anthony Johnson was just sad once the legs started to go. Deron couldnt guard anyone in this playoff series. Its a great indicator of what is to come.
7- You wrote: "Billy King is dumb and he doesn't know how much money someone is actually worth. That said, the guy does know that he needs cap space to sign players. In fact, prior to this past offseason, he made sure that we'd have very small, easily tradeable contracts. He might not be smart in thinking about trades, but even he's shown that he knows how to make deals end around the same time.
Plus, since we're over the LTT, we can't sign players of significant worth anyway. The guys who take up the MMLE or vet.min. deals are easily tradeable."
OK so the problem here is...we see the future very differently for this franchise. I dont mean what we want to happen. I mean what we SEE happening. It seems to me you are still thinking like NJ and not Brooklyn. I believe King will make whatever moves he can whenever he can. Bad exception signing are easy to trade? Are you sure about that? Not true. And my point to you is...for us to have major cap space you are dumping 28 year old Brook Lopez. Did you consider that? Letting him walk. Now assuming he improves and he is just entering his prime...why do that? So if we have Lopez...my point is...King will trade JJ and Crash in their final year for OTHER long term type deals teams are dumping. He will add a pick or two and take on his next albatross to put around Lopez. And if he doesnt do that...and keeps Lopez, Deron, and has a few picks and prospects laying around...add other cap holds...we wont have big cap space. As long as we keep Lopez/Deron that summer...not going to have the cap space. So all I am doing is getting AHEAD of the game. Of course I could end up wrong here...but assuming Deron plays that contract out to its end and Lopez doesnt suffer some catastrophic injury...we will not add a major free agent in the summer of 2016. I say...not going to happen.
And I think this is why we are on different sides here. I feel you are still thinking small market. I LOVED that thinking. Still do. I preached it more than anyone for years when people got excited about every single move we made or could make. Arguments from people that Troy Murphy and Outlaw were good moves. I always hated moves for the sake of them. But...I see King. I see Proky. I see Brooklyn. And I look at Dolan as the blueprint for where we are going. Not what I want...what I BELIEVE is happening here.
You rip King but I think you are denial at just where we are headed. We have a NEW IDENTITY. Filling seats matters now. And average fans....not fanatic geeks like us...but regular fans just want to hear on the news that we added someone. To them making a move like JJ was awesome. Even Crash. Right on this board I saw guys post here who thought he was still the OLD CRASH. They were stoked.
I am saying, King didnt learn a lesson there. He will still DEFEND those moves. He BELIEVES in those moves. And he will make more of them.
SO I am looking around for a guy that gets the CORE younger. Gives us a tandem that can pay dues for 3+ years while LBJ dominates so that when the time comes...the guys we have are seasoned instead of declining. 33 year old Deron? You are dreaming if you think he will lead this team anywhere by then and certainly not after that. The Heat will begin to become vulnerable....but Deron will decline even further.
8- You wrote: "And what if he isn't and we're stuck with a player on an even longer max contract who's not going to put in the work to get better.
And what about his injury history? He hasn't played more than 70 games a season in his young career. He already has had surgery on his knee and now you have to hope and pray that I guy that a PG who mainly scores by going to the paint and heavily relies on his speed to make a difference is going to be healthy for those years."
You know athletes do not come with guarantees. They are people not washing machines.
You scout, you project...you roll the dice. I project that having a guy 7 years younger who is that gifted is worth having on the books for 2 more years than the 33 year old guy. Deron at 32 will not be traded with 2 years left. If Wall is even decent with two years left on his deal...YES he will be tradeable at 27 years of age.
You are not impressed with Wall. I am. No getting around that. If you loved him we wouldnt be debating all the angles would we?
Yes, I agree he has his flaws. But he has time to develop. LOTS of time. Deron has his flaws too. But he doesnt have time to develop. This is it. The prime years of a NBA player. Once he hits the wrong side of 30 you hope he can still be great....but despite stats if you are honest you will see decline. At his absolute best he didnt have one stellar game against a Bulls team that was beat to hell. I am sorry its not going to get massively better. And I would rather take a shot on Wall being healthy at 22 than D-Chubsy Williams. The whole...playing yourself into shape gets harder as you get older.
One small thing. That whole hasnt played more than 70 games thing. He played 66 of 66 last year. Cant penalize a guy for the lock out. And if you are going to make health point in comparison....then you have to be fair and look at Deron. He hasnt played a full season in 6 years. This year was the closest only missed 4 games. In the 4 prior he missed: 11/17/6/14.
So yeah...I am willing to gamble on the 22 year old over the 29 year old. I have to ask...what is your upside with Deron? What did you see that I didnt this year and in these playoffs? You think add a Boozer for Hump and get some other coach and we beat the Heat? Healthy Bulls? Who? What is the upside as Deron turns, 30, 31, 32, 33. Are you willing to be fair or you want to pray to the hoops gods for miracles?
9- You wrote: "Yes, we got younger by replacing D-Will with Wall, but I think most people have soured on Nene (at least I have) over the course of the season.
You said it yourself that he basically added nothing to the Wizards in the latter half of the season. When I found out that he was contemplating retirement due to all of the foot problems that he was having this past season, I no longer wanted any part of him.
If the injuries didn't pile up for him, he'd be more attractive, but right now there's no need to give up anything for him if he's going to be riding the pine for at least half a season. "
Hey...I actually do not want Nene. Do you know why I started this? Because I read an entire thread arguing about what to trade Hump for. Nene was target #1 by this board and Gordon was target #2. Two guy I think are so injury prone I dont really see the point. I dont think they make us any better. But...it got me thinking. What if I could get a younger go to guy AND fix one of the forward spots our two biggest issues in the same deal...so that we can still use Hump to fix something else? Guys here like Nene more than I do...lets play with the numbers since Hump for Nene to me does absolutely nothing for us.
So I made my list of young talent. Of who I think could be special in a few years from now as the Heat begin to decline. Who can I target since I know this group wont contend behind Deron. And as I made my list, Curry, Kyrie, Wall....maybe Griffin...a few others. I asked myself....which of these guys could I see their team actually bite on Deron before his trade value is gone? Wall just jumps out at me. And those two bad big man contracts also jump out as a reason a small market team might have added incentive to make a deal. Get Okafor for all I care and play him at the 4. Dont care. But I can see the contracts match...and the goal was achieved and while I know we are going to ride Deron on the pretend train of futility these next few years...I feel its really worth the debate. Why NOT consider being proactive?
I believe fully we will not gut the roster for 2016. I believe we will restock the pond like the Knicks or Portland did for years to come...mired in mediocrity but selling tickets each year with some other new name holding up a jersey every so often at a press conference selling false hope to a crop of casual fans looking to buy tickets and merchandise and all they need is a reason. Any reason, even a false prophet.
10- And the last thing you wrote: "The only difference between the two situations is Wall and D-Will (since I wouldn't call Nene a positive asset at this point in time).
And for as much as you reference D-Will's age, we can also reference Wall's injury history and his major knee issue and a significant setback with the same knee in early December. IF Nene stays healthy and IF Wall stays healthy and IF he improves on the areas of the game that he's still pretty raw at, yeah it makes a lot of sense.
But I don't see all of those variables working out in our favor. There's risk on both sides of the issue and if the difference is trusting Wall to improve and stay healthy vs. D-Will turning 32/33 in the latter years of his contract, the argument could go either way."
I feel you are acting like Wall off one injury is Steph Curry and you are ignoring Dwill's health and maintenance of his body at 29 years of age next season DWIll is not Stockton. He is not Kobe. THEN add the 7 years.
Now any player can crap out health wise. But I dont like you over playing the health card like this. Lopez has been a far bigger injury risk in his career and you were right there with the rest of us dismissing those that made him sound like he was Bynum last summer. Wall is back. He is not Rose. Not an unknown. He is not Bynum, or Steph Curry constantly at risk. He finished the year on the biggest high of his young 3 year career. We saw 25 really impressive games. So yeah...I would take that risk over worrying Deron is going to come in 15 pounds heavy next year. And that each year playing it off will get harder.
No I dont think the scenarios are as much of a "pick em" as you made it sound. I think there are risks with all athletes. But I see no reason to worry more about 22 year old Wall who had an injury last summer than I do Lopez who didnt play for a year and half.
Hey...I do appreciate your reply. You made some fair challenges...some I challenged back that I thought you embellished for debate purposes...lol, we all do that no harm there.
And I do appreciate you acknowledging the essence of my point there at the end. That's what a good poster does...and why you have my respect.
Totally fine that you dont believe in Wall. But for me...I just ask you and everyone else here to be honest about what we should expect from Deron as the star player here. What realistically we expect to add around him for the few assets we have left. And how long is it fair to expect him to play at his career best level based on the typical NBA player and examining his healthy and work out history. I say 3 years at best...and I think those 3 years in the NBA are LEBRON'S. He might own more than that. But I think that is when a team of up and comers who have taken their lumps just as LBJ did for 8 years before his time came...same with MJ. I am trying to make the plan to be NEXT.
I say Wall...because I cant seem to come up with a prospect more regarded that I can see as a plausible trade target for the assets we have to offer.
You have a better one? I am all for it!
-E