Post#105 » by rockymac52 » Tue Jul 9, 2013 4:16 pm
After messing around with potential lineups for the last few hours, I've come to one main conclusion: we are in big trouble if/when Nene or Okafor gets hurt.
Even if we're just resting one of them with a minor day-to-day injury, or to keep them fresh so they can avoid a more serious injury, I can't help but feel like any game where 1 of those 2 guys is sitting out is all but a guaranteed loss. I don't like that. God forbid a situation where both are hurt (which sadly isn't that unrealistic).
I'm a big time supporter of giving Ariza and possibly Porter consistent minutes at PF, because it's really the only way to make the SF rotation work, and I'd rather have one of them playing slightly out of position than give those minutes to Vesely, SIngleton, or Seraphin instead. But even if we can all agree that playing a lot of small ball is a fine strategy, the real problems arise when one of Nene or Okafor is hurt.
We're fortunate that both players can play center, so if Okafor gets hurt, we can slide Nene over to center full-time, and it likely wouldn't be an issue at all (it might even increase his production slightly). However, it's hard to imagine either big man averaging more than 28 MPG. Maybe they could play 30 MPG here and there if needed due to injuries, but it's not a good idea to have them play that much on a regular basis. Like it or not, they're aging, and they simply can't keep up if they're playing 30+ MPG, and it's essentially asking for an injury as a result of overwork.
So let's say Okafor gets hurt and has to miss a few weeks. Okay, we can slide Nene over to center, and he can continue to play about 28 MPG, but that leaves another 20 MPG at center, as well as the entirety of the PF minutes (or at least, what's left over after Ariza gets his regular backup minutes there, so probably about 24-30 MPG by my estimates). Our only other center on the roster is Seraphin, so he'd be the obvious choice to eat up the rest of the 20 MPG at center. Seraphin playing 20 MPG isn't SO bad, as long as he isn't chucking when he's in the game like he did this past season. It's manageable. Then we can throw in Booker for 20 MPG or so at PF, and that's passable as well. However then we're left with about 10 MPG at PF, and you know what that means... Vesely and/or Singleton are cracking the rotation. I hope both of them figure it out and end up having good careers, but I just don't see it happening, especially with us. They have been absolutely dreadful so far, and I don't see any reason to believe that will change. When they're in the game for us, we get destroyed, regardless of who the other 4 players on the court are. It's only 10 MPG, and it doesn't sound like a lot, but trust me, those 10 MPG will be SO bad that they will likely single-handedly lead to losses.
If Vesely and/or Singleton are cracking the rotation, we're in big trouble. Especially if we also have Booker and Seraphin each playing 20 MPG. That's just a disaster of a front court. Sadly, I can't help but feel like such a situation is inevitable. Even if Nene and Okafor have relatively healthy seasons, I expect them to miss a combined 20 games MINIMUM. If my fears prove to be true, and we are basically guaranteed to lose if one of them are out of the lineup, then that's 20 losses right there. And that's with them only missing 20 games combined! In reality, they might be more likely to miss about 40-60 games combined. We could really be in trouble here.
Our problems last year were not with our starting lineup, or our 6th man. Our problems were that Vesely, Singleton, Booker, and Seraphin were so bad they single-handedly cost us games whenever they stepped on the court. They were lineup killers. Hopefully some of them progress, and this problem goes away, but I'm skeptical. We really do need another capable veteran big man to even out our rotation.