Post#12 » by Durins Baynes » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:14 am
The Hawks are using the Spurs method. Their GM is an ex-Spur (one of 6 around the NBA), and their coach is an ex-Spur (lost track of how many of those are around). The Rockets "plan" and the Spurs plan are at odds, and I know which one I'd rather be following.
Morey gets a lot of praise as some kind of genius, but he's actually been very lucky. He inherited a very good team, made marginal changes which were mostly good, then took too long to pull the trigger on the rebuild, and never fully committed to it. He spent 3 years in mediocrity, before lucking into Harden, and then massively lucking into Dwight. The problem with what Morey did in collecting (so so) assets and continuing to try and "win" (but finishing 9th) were the following:
1) If Morey had been allowed to get Pau Gasol, as he was a Stern veto away from, it blows up in his face. He no longer has the assets to get Harden, and certainly isn't getting Dwight. I know Morey fans say he'd have gotten them anyway, but that's silly- he'd have already blown his load. With Pau the Rockets make the playoffs 1-2 times, then drop out of the playoffs and have nothing to show for their 3 years of mediocrity- they're right back where they started.
2) There has only ever been one guy like Harden on the trade block in the history of the modern CBA's (so post 99 basically). By this I mean, there has only ever been one guy who was a) a young star, b) was a fairly safe bet, c) was on a rookie contract which could be matched, and d) was on a team who wanted to keep him, but couldn't because ownership couldn't afford it. You can't plan for that, because it's only ever happened once. Morey lucked into a unique situation, and then lucked out even further when a bunch of other teams who the Thunder preferred to trade with all (stupidly) said no. The Bobcats said no (for the #2 pick), the Wizards said no (for the #3 pick), the Warriors said no (for a trade based around Klay), etc. Your team shouldn't "plan" for something so unlikely to happen, because it relies on too many variables outside your control (which almost surely won't happen- but in this one case did), and there's only 1 Harden, so everyone who doesn't get him did it for nothing. Not a good plan.
3) Dwight was even luckier. If Dwight doesn't do something so stupid and unpredictable as opt into his final contract year, he's a Net. If the Lakers don't screw up huge, Dwight is a Laker still.
If I knew the lotto numbers, I'd take them, but I'd never build a team on the assumption I would win the lotto repeatedly.
The Spurs model differs depending on the circumstances of the team, but one constant is that you stick to a direction that makes sense, you don't half ass it like Morey did (being stuck in mediocrity and hoping he'd luck out of it). If you think you can move into being a contender with your existing pieces and realistic moves, you do that (like the Spurs are doing). If you think you can't, you blow it up and stick to that (like the Magic/Jazz are doing, and like the Thunder did). The Pelicans were doing plan 2, and are now onto plan 1. The Hawks are in a different place, it sounds like Ferry has instructions from ownership to win now, and he's fine with that. That won't win a title, but in the East Ferry can make internal moves around the current core to put together a team that wins 50-55 games a year within 2 years. Given the Hawks financial situation and low ticket sales, I can see why that makes sense. They tried for the unlikely Free Agent home run, it didn't pay out, now they're going to give this 2 years, and re-evaluate then whether to pull the plug. As plans go it's decent enough. It also incorporates the other aspects you tend to see in Spur front offices (change the team character, make sure everyone knows their role, get rid of people who aren't a fit for it, revamp the scouting division, work more with your minor league team, keep everything in-house, etc).
Their draft picks so far look good, I guess the Hawks are hoping they can hit a few home runs with them, and get the pieces they need that way. It's a wild long shot, but given ownerships mandate, and given they've got a borderline franchise player already in Horford, it might be worth a shot to see how it works for 2 years before deciding where to go next.
