Illmatic21 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:Good points all!
Any metrics that you have looked at for 2nd to 3rd year players. Paul George jumped out at me - but he took a big jump as a sophomore.
I don't have metrics on hand, but it's commonly stated that the 3rd year is when you can really see who a player is going to be.
George has made an impressive jump each year, but he became an All-Star his 3rd year. Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose. Wall would've been an All-Star if healthy. Klay Thompson seems to have made a jump this year as well.
I think Beal will average around 20ppg next year, but it'll be on better efficiency and he'll be getting to the line more. And hopefully he'll continue developing his ability to be a primary ballhandler.
Paul George took a significant jump his second year, but he played at that same level his third year -- the opposite of the point being made above. This year he has again made a significant improvement. He turned 23 in May, so he still has some development in him.
The "common" opinion that in his 3d year you can "really see who a player is" means something different -- after age about 24-25 guys peak. Back when most players came into the league after their senior year or sometimes their junior year, they often reached 24 in their 3d year -- so that was when you more or less knew what you had, and that's the source of the common statement.
It seems obvious that's not usually true any more, as players (and especially lottery picks) tend to come out after 1 year or maybe 2 in college. Bradley Beal is a 20 year old, a kid -- hell, we don't even know what position he'll play in a couple of years if he has another growth spurt in him!

And he was drafted the day he turned 19!