ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron

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ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#1 » by MisterHibachi » Sun Jan 26, 2014 4:00 pm

This is the thread for the match up of seeds 3 and 6 in the Western Conference of the All-Time Fantasy League.

General Discussion in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1293300
Draft was in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1294562
Playoff results in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1299878

Western Conference Quarterfinals: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron

(3) ardee
1. Dirk Nowitzki (09-11)
2. Steve Nash (05-07)
3. Robert Parish (81-83)
4. Joe Dumars (89-91)
5. Glen Rice (96-98)
6. Terry Cummings (84-86)
7. Alvan Adams (80-82)
8. Tony Parker (12-14)
9. Raja Bell (06-08)
10. Paul Pressey (85-87)

(6) Sagittaron
1. Magic Johnson (85-87)
2. Dikembe Mutombo (94-96)
3. James Worthy (87-89)
4. Shawn Kemp (95-97)
5. Dale Ellis (86-88)
6. Jermaine O'Neal (02-04)
7. Danny Granger (09-11)
8. Baron Davis (07-09)
9. Clifford Robinson (95-97)
10. John Starks (95-97)

Judges
bastillon
TMACFORMVP: ardee
penbeast0: ardee
ronnymac2: ardee
Doctor MJ
SideshowBob: ardee
Texas Chuck: ardee
therealbig3

In each match up, GMs will offer their preliminary strategy for beating the other team and reasons for why their team is stronger. GMs will also have the opportunity to respond to the opponent's strategy. Judges will offer any comments and questions they have of the GMs and finally will cast their vote for whichever team they think is stronger simply by saying 'Team A wins this matchup' or 'Team B wins this matchup'. Whoever gets more votes moves on.


Good luck!
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#2 » by Texas Chuck » Mon Feb 3, 2014 10:47 pm

This matchup would be such fun to watch irl. Excited to see how each GM decides to play this.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#3 » by ThunderDan9 » Mon Feb 3, 2014 11:10 pm

I agree. Definitely contrasting styles, but it should be great fun.

My secret wish is a matchup with ardee's team. :o Fight fire with fire. :lol:
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#4 » by O_6 » Mon Feb 3, 2014 11:48 pm

Dale Ellis averaged 7.1 PPG on .411 FG% in 15.1 MPG during the '86 season
Dale Ellis averaged 27.5 PPG on .501 FG% in 38.9 MPG during the '89 season (All-NBA 3rd team)

He played 72 games in '86 and 82 games in '89 so both seasons qualify for the 62 game minimum set for this project. I think it's obvious that this was a typo and that Saggitaron should be allowed to use '89 Ellis.

Dale Ellis is going to be a very important player in this series imo. Not many 25+ PPG and .400+ 3P% shooting guys in this tournament but he is one of them. How the judges view him will go a long way in deciding if Sagittaron has enough offensive firepower to go toe to toe with ardee's incredible shooting.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#5 » by ardee » Mon Feb 3, 2014 11:49 pm

Awesome, finally.

I'll post my gameplan in a couple of hours.

Also, my deepest condolences to my opponent over the accident of his family member. I hope that this game will help you feel a little better, whoever wins.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#6 » by Laimbeer » Mon Feb 3, 2014 11:59 pm

This game would strain the neck. But I like Magic's break better right off the top. Would be an awesome game to see.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#7 » by ardee » Tue Feb 4, 2014 2:10 am

Rotation:

Steve Nash (36 mpg)/Tony Parker (12 mpg)
Joe Dumars (32 mpg)/Raja Bell (12 mpg)/Tony Parker (4 mpg)
Glen Rice (34 mpg)/Paul Pressey (14 mpg)
Dirk Nowitzki (40 mpg)/Terry Cummings (8 mpg)
Robert Parish (35 mpg)/Alvan Adams (8 mpg)/Terry Cummings (5 mpg)

Offensive game-plan:

On offense, I will use a combination of a HCO and a fast-break style.

Option 1) Nash/Nowitzki pick and roll

I'm assuming Sagittaron will be using matchups by position. So when I run the Nash/Nowitzki pick and roll, Magic and Kemp should be involved. Against Nowitzki, Magic is giving up 3 inches and a good 20 pounds. There's no way either Magic is going to fight through that screen. Usually, it's up to the screener's man to recover and make the switch, but Kemp is not KG, meaning now Nash is facing the basket with Magic and Kemp both behind him.

Nash now has multiple devastating options. If Rice's man rotates over from whichever wing he's planted himself at, Nash just has to swing the ball over to a 44.4% three point shooter (on 4.8 attempts per game). Here's another nugget:

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=779&Season=1996-97

Rice shot 66% on corner threes! Now do you understand how deadly he is?

If Dumars' man tries to reach Nash, Dumars can pull up himself as a 38.6% three point shooter, or with a new wrinkle, put the ball on the floor and either drive or dribble into a closer range two point shot.

http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=247&Season=1996-97

Here's a look at Dumars' shot chart in '97, his last All Star season and when he was a far cry from the version I chose for this team. Notice that he shot 55% from long twos on the left wing. If I have him spot up on that side, it'd be just foolhardy to leave him there as it would be to leave Rice.

Nash can very well just take the two himself. He shot 55% on twos from '05-'07, and shot 61, 69 and 68% at the rim respectively for those three seasons.

If they try and hedge the screen and trap Nash, it's a simple matter of a bounce pass to Nowitzki, who we know is an insane mid-range shooter, 50+% from 16-23 feet all three years. Heck, I can just have him roll to the basket as well, where he's also a 65% finisher give or take.

So essentially, I have four extremely high percentage options JUST FROM THIS ONE PLAY. Magic and Kemp are not fast enough to stop the original screen, which leaves the defenders scrambling to ensure neither Nash nor Dirk can pull up from areas they're known to be amazing jump-shooters, which leaves Dumars and Rice open, both of whom are threats to hit 40+% threes and one of whom can also slash his way to a shorter shot.

Option 2: Nowitzki post-up

In 2011, the Mavs' go-to unit of Kidd-Terry-Marion-Dirk-Chandler was +38.7/100 possessions against MIAMI. That line-up was very simple in the way it played but so effective. Everything was geared toward the Nowitzki post-up and kickout when the double came.

Can you imagine how much more insane the offensive numbers would be if you gave him Nash and Rice as shooters instead of Kidd and Terry?

Kemp can absolutely not cover Nowitzki. He probably won't, but if he tries Deke then it gets even worse, because Dirk can drag him out and rid Saggitaron's team of their rim protector, opening lanes for Nash and Dumars and leaving Kemp with the mismatch of Parish.

Nash and Dirk are definitely my two best players and therefore my two most commonly used plays will rotate around them.

Parker comes on

When Parker is playing, I'll use him exclusively the way Pop has for the last 3 years, to great effect. He will have his fair share of slashing opportunities but I'll also let Dumars be the ball handler, and run Parker off multiple screens (the way he did against the Grizzlies in the WCF last year) and let him get easy layups that way.

He shot 65% at the rim over the three years, so it's a nice option.

For short periods during the game, namely whenever Sagittaron has Starks playing (someone I don't need to worry about too much on defense), I'll play Nash and Parker together. In this case I'll use Parker exclusively off-ball, and I'll keep spamming a play where he cuts to the basket off a screen and Nash finds him easily, until an adjustment is made.

Other bench guys

Bell is mostly a shooter, and is like-for-like with Dumars to give him rest, though I lose some ball-handling for a bit.

Pressey is a great point-forward, but I won't utilize that aspect of his game too much. Essentially, it'll help when he gets open because of a Nash PnR, allowing me another guy who can put the ball on the floor instead of just pulling up.

Adams will add a nice dimension, whenever he plays. Usually it'll be when Parker is on, allowing him to slide those nice pocket passes to the cutting Frenchman.

Cummings won't get too many touches, he's here for his defense. He's good to clean up around the rim though.

Summary

I will have 2 of Nash, Parker, Rice and Dirk on the floor at ALL times. I've staggered the minutes so that I have 2 efficient offensive anchors no matter what happens, and at least 1 other shooter and rim finisher at all times.

I'll use the Nash-Rice-Dirk trio for at least 70% of the game, meaning he always has to worry about the pick and roll and my incredible shooting.

I predict a 130+ ORtg for this team against this opponent.

Defensive game-plan

Now I know I'm not as potent on this end, but I'm not as worried as I would be against a couple of other teams.

As I spoke about in another thread, the mistake Sagittaron made here is picking the earlier version of Magic. While still a potent as hell offensive player and passer, '85 and '86 Magic were not as good of scorers as they were in later years. In '87 he developed a post-game and a jumper, but the jumper was nowhere near where it would be in '89-'91 where it extended out to the three-point line.

The thing is that Magic in those years was not the no. 1 option on the Lakers, Kareem was. Sure, Magic was the key to the offense, but they always had the option of just throwing it into Kareem when the offense broke down.

Here, there is no one on my opponent's team who would give them that luxury. Everyone is too dependent on Magic to score. In the half-court, things would get messy.

Deke has no real offensive skills, he was basically a guy who caught lobs and scored off offensive rebounds. Kemp was athletic as hell but had limited range and no real post-game. Worthy was fantastic player but he got a LOT of points in transition, and was entirely dependent on getting to the rim. He had no jumper. Ellis was a catch and shoot player as well, for the most part. Phenomenal scorer of course but not much of an isolation player and wasn't too comfortable with the ball on the floor.

Magic is the key here. He was still a beast in the years chosen but I still see a few holes in his game. He will be under HEAVY pressure to create for everyone. Unlike my team, where Nash, Dumars and Dirk are all good at putting the ball on the floor and making plays for others, Magic has to do it mostly by himself with this lineup.

Dumars will guard him. He's giving up 6 inches but I'm ok with that. DJ gave up 5 inches and did a mostly creditable job on Magic. Also, this version of Magic didn't have a real post-game with which he could take Dumars down low and punish him with.

All Dumars has to do is keep in front of Magic, and protect the drive. He can play off him because the jumper wasn't there as much.

Magic will still do a good deal of damage but it'll be limited, and if he can't create then the whole team has problems.

I'll have Nash on Ellis, which is perfect, because he's much better at off-ball defense.

Deke is almost a non-factor on offense unless he gets a lob near the basket or an offensive rebound or something, so Parish can help off him very easily if need be.

Kemp is more athletic than Dirk but again, one on one it's a matchup I'm comfortable with because he needs others to create for him.

If he runs a Magic/Kemp pick and roll I'll give up some points but my guys are bigger up front than his, meaning there'll be solid defense waiting at the rim, and he doesn't have the shooters to make me pay if I have my perimeter guys rotate over to help.

I can't comment on the bench yet because I don't know about my opponent's rotations but the only guy I worry about is Davis, who I'll have Bell/Dumars stick to as much as possible.

My team is too good offensively to have too many turnovers for Sagittaron to consistently use the break to score. There'll be some quick dunks for sure, but I'll be limiting the number of such possessions. On the boards, I have Dirk and Parish, two good, of it not great rebounders, who will box out hard and make it difficult for him to get the break moving smoothly.

Conclusion

That was a lot longer than I expected... And there's more to come because I'm not sure about my opponent's bench rotation.

Overall, I will give up points for sure, he's got a damn good offensive team, but his lack of a true offensive anchor who can score AND create will hurt him.

I can't see him stopping my offense at all, so I think this is my series.

Now it's up to the judges.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#8 » by ardee » Tue Feb 4, 2014 9:01 am

Am I just going to keep getting And1s and no replies :lol: ?
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#9 » by O_6 » Tue Feb 4, 2014 5:50 pm

I'm playing the winner of this matchup and I know that I'll be going up against a great offense led by a scary PG either way. I think both teams will be excellent in the open court, Sagittaron may be slightly better due to Worthy/Kemp. If there is anyone who can get the best out of Kemp, it is Magic. But I also think that ardee has the better halfcourt offense due to having Dirk and all those shooters.

There are a lot of things to talk about with this matchup, but I'll wait for Sagittaron to post his matchup description before I post my thoughts. Obviously I am very interested to see who wins this matchup.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#10 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:23 pm

Ardee,

I have a question about the heavy minutes to Dirk and Nash. I know both guys showed in the PS for the years selected they could handle those minutes, but against an opponent this tough, do you not have concerns about them having heavy legs at the end of games? Especially concerning on a team built on shooting. Care to speak a little more on this?
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#11 » by MisterHibachi » Tue Feb 4, 2014 6:32 pm

I don't know if Sagittaron can stop ardee's offense. Actually I thought I had the best chance to stop his offense because of my athletes 8-) :-D
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#12 » by whitehops » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:16 am

ardee tell me if i'm reading your rotation wrong but you are planning on playing nash and parker at the same time for roughly 8 minutes a game?


personally I don't think that would be a very good idea at all. I don't think you'd be maximizing their minutes on offense nearly enough considering what you're likely to give up on the defensive end. I understand that parker would be running around screens but he wouldn't need an amazing playmaker like nash to get him the ball, and back then nash simply could not play off the ball. he was even uncomfortable as a spot-up shooter and had to learn how to shoot without being on the move when he came to LA.

back then nash was the one that literally had the ball in his hands the entire time. he created for everyone, and he was very good at it. to play him for stretches where he would be reduced to making the easy pass to someone coming off a screen and being a spot-up shooter simply isn't an efficient use of his minutes. if it were me I would almost always have one of nash/parker on the floor and one of dumars/bell along with them.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#13 » by ardee » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:33 am

Texas Chuck wrote:Ardee,

I have a question about the heavy minutes to Dirk and Nash. I know both guys showed in the PS for the years selected they could handle those minutes, but against an opponent this tough, do you not have concerns about them having heavy legs at the end of games? Especially concerning on a team built on shooting. Care to speak a little more on this?


Well, Dirk played 40.4 mpg against Miami in 2011 and he was far and away the only really consistent shot creator on his team.

In this series he'll have 3 other very good offensive players with him to carry off the load. The offense is not going to run through him ALL the time.

On some plays he'll be a spot-up shooter, on some plays I'll have him in the post, in some plays I'll run a PnR with Nash.

It's not going to be as exhausting as him having to post up hard on every play like he did with the Mavs, to draw doubles and open things up for others.

I know it seems excessive but in this matchup I need my offense firing all game. Sagittaron will have a very high scoring team and I don't want to risk having a space of a few minutes where he suddenly goes on a run and I don't have my big guns to counter it.

Know what I'm saying?
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#14 » by ardee » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:36 am

whitehops wrote:ardee tell me if i'm reading your rotation wrong but you are planning on playing nash and parker at the same time for roughly 8 minutes a game?


personally I don't think that would be a very good idea at all. I don't think you'd be maximizing their minutes on offense nearly enough considering what you're likely to give up on the defensive end. I understand that parker would be running around screens but he wouldn't need an amazing playmaker like nash to get him the ball, and back then nash simply could not play off the ball. he was even uncomfortable as a spot-up shooter and had to learn how to shoot without being on the move when he came to LA.

back then nash was the one that literally had the ball in his hands the entire time. he created for everyone, and he was very good at it. to play him for stretches where he would be reduced to making the easy pass to someone coming off a screen and being a spot-up shooter simply isn't an efficient use of his minutes. if it were me I would almost always have one of nash/parker on the floor and one of dumars/bell along with them.


I was only planning on this when Starks was playing, I'm guessing barely 4 mpg. Nash will usually be the lead guard during the pairing, as Parker retains his effectiveness off the ball. It's not a massive factor, at least that's my belief, because it's for like 1/12th of the game when my opponent's bench unit is out.

I had messed up the rotation timings, that's fixed now. Thanks for telling me.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#15 » by whitehops » Wed Feb 5, 2014 2:52 am

ardee wrote:
whitehops wrote:ardee tell me if i'm reading your rotation wrong but you are planning on playing nash and parker at the same time for roughly 8 minutes a game?


personally I don't think that would be a very good idea at all. I don't think you'd be maximizing their minutes on offense nearly enough considering what you're likely to give up on the defensive end. I understand that parker would be running around screens but he wouldn't need an amazing playmaker like nash to get him the ball, and back then nash simply could not play off the ball. he was even uncomfortable as a spot-up shooter and had to learn how to shoot without being on the move when he came to LA.

back then nash was the one that literally had the ball in his hands the entire time. he created for everyone, and he was very good at it. to play him for stretches where he would be reduced to making the easy pass to someone coming off a screen and being a spot-up shooter simply isn't an efficient use of his minutes. if it were me I would almost always have one of nash/parker on the floor and one of dumars/bell along with them.


I was only planning on this when Starks was playing, I'm guessing barely 4 mpg. Nash will usually be the lead guard during the pairing, as Parker retains his effectiveness off the ball. It's not a massive factor, at least that's my belief, because it's for like 1/12th of the game when my opponent's bench unit is out.

I had messed up the rotation timings, that's fixed now. Thanks for telling me.



ok, yeah four spot-minutes in a game shouldn't be bad, eight minutes though might cause some problems.

sorry if I sounded negative there, I really liked your gameplan and that was the only negative that really stuck out to me. four minutes though isn't as big a deal. very very solid gameplan.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#16 » by ardee » Wed Feb 5, 2014 5:49 am

whitehops wrote:
ardee wrote:
whitehops wrote:ardee tell me if i'm reading your rotation wrong but you are planning on playing nash and parker at the same time for roughly 8 minutes a game?


personally I don't think that would be a very good idea at all. I don't think you'd be maximizing their minutes on offense nearly enough considering what you're likely to give up on the defensive end. I understand that parker would be running around screens but he wouldn't need an amazing playmaker like nash to get him the ball, and back then nash simply could not play off the ball. he was even uncomfortable as a spot-up shooter and had to learn how to shoot without being on the move when he came to LA.

back then nash was the one that literally had the ball in his hands the entire time. he created for everyone, and he was very good at it. to play him for stretches where he would be reduced to making the easy pass to someone coming off a screen and being a spot-up shooter simply isn't an efficient use of his minutes. if it were me I would almost always have one of nash/parker on the floor and one of dumars/bell along with them.


I was only planning on this when Starks was playing, I'm guessing barely 4 mpg. Nash will usually be the lead guard during the pairing, as Parker retains his effectiveness off the ball. It's not a massive factor, at least that's my belief, because it's for like 1/12th of the game when my opponent's bench unit is out.

I had messed up the rotation timings, that's fixed now. Thanks for telling me.



ok, yeah four spot-minutes in a game shouldn't be bad, eight minutes though might cause some problems.

sorry if I sounded negative there, I really liked your gameplan and that was the only negative that really stuck out to me. four minutes though isn't as big a deal. very very solid gameplan.


No problem, thanks for the criticism.

Hope to see you later on in the tournament :D
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#17 » by whitehops » Wed Feb 5, 2014 6:23 am

ardee wrote:Hope to see you later on in the tournament :D


no offense but I don't think you're going to make it to the finals
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#18 » by ardee » Wed Feb 5, 2014 9:38 pm

Does anyone know where my opponent is?
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#19 » by SideshowBob » Thu Feb 6, 2014 1:57 am

ardee wrote:Does anyone know where my opponent is?


Yeah I was hoping to stay disciplined for once and get this one done on time, as I've been late with the first 4 matchups, but I guess that's not happening.
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Re: ATFL Western: (3) ardee vs. (6) Sagittaron 

Post#20 » by Quotatious » Thu Feb 6, 2014 10:25 am

Seems that Sagittaron's family member's accident was serious, and he isn't in a good mood for this exercise here...Certainly can understand that. Damn, I hope that I'm wrong, but I think that it might be the case.

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