Rotation:Steve Nash (36 mpg)/Tony Parker (12 mpg)
Joe Dumars (32 mpg)/Raja Bell (12 mpg)/Tony Parker (4 mpg)
Glen Rice (34 mpg)/Paul Pressey (14 mpg)
Dirk Nowitzki (40 mpg)/Terry Cummings (8 mpg)
Robert Parish (35 mpg)/Alvan Adams (8 mpg)/Terry Cummings (5 mpg)
Offensive game-plan:On offense, I will use a combination of a HCO and a fast-break style.
Option 1) Nash/Nowitzki pick and rollI'm assuming Sagittaron will be using matchups by position. So when I run the Nash/Nowitzki pick and roll, Magic and Kemp should be involved. Against Nowitzki, Magic is giving up 3 inches and a good 20 pounds. There's no way either Magic is going to fight through that screen. Usually, it's up to the screener's man to recover and make the switch, but Kemp is not KG, meaning now Nash is facing the basket with Magic and Kemp both behind him.
Nash now has multiple devastating options. If Rice's man rotates over from whichever wing he's planted himself at, Nash just has to swing the ball over to a 44.4% three point shooter (on 4.8 attempts per game). Here's another nugget:
http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=779&Season=1996-97Rice shot 66% on corner threes! Now do you understand how deadly he is?
If Dumars' man tries to reach Nash, Dumars can pull up himself as a 38.6% three point shooter, or with a new wrinkle, put the ball on the floor and either drive or dribble into a closer range two point shot.
http://stats.nba.com/playerShotchart.html?PlayerID=247&Season=1996-97Here's a look at Dumars' shot chart in '97, his last All Star season and when he was a far cry from the version I chose for this team. Notice that he shot 55% from long twos on the left wing. If I have him spot up on that side, it'd be just foolhardy to leave him there as it would be to leave Rice.
Nash can very well just take the two himself. He shot 55% on twos from '05-'07, and shot 61, 69 and 68% at the rim respectively for those three seasons.
If they try and hedge the screen and trap Nash, it's a simple matter of a bounce pass to Nowitzki, who we know is an insane mid-range shooter, 50+% from 16-23 feet all three years. Heck, I can just have him roll to the basket as well, where he's also a 65% finisher give or take.
So essentially, I have four extremely high percentage options JUST FROM THIS ONE PLAY. Magic and Kemp are not fast enough to stop the original screen, which leaves the defenders scrambling to ensure neither Nash nor Dirk can pull up from areas they're known to be amazing jump-shooters, which leaves Dumars and Rice open, both of whom are threats to hit 40+% threes and one of whom can also slash his way to a shorter shot.
Option 2: Nowitzki post-upIn 2011, the Mavs' go-to unit of Kidd-Terry-Marion-Dirk-Chandler was +38.7/100 possessions against MIAMI. That line-up was very simple in the way it played but so effective. Everything was geared toward the Nowitzki post-up and kickout when the double came.
Can you imagine how much more insane the offensive numbers would be if you gave him Nash and Rice as shooters instead of Kidd and Terry?
Kemp can absolutely not cover Nowitzki. He probably won't, but if he tries Deke then it gets even worse, because Dirk can drag him out and rid Saggitaron's team of their rim protector, opening lanes for Nash and Dumars and leaving Kemp with the mismatch of Parish.
Nash and Dirk are definitely my two best players and therefore my two most commonly used plays will rotate around them.
Parker comes onWhen Parker is playing, I'll use him exclusively the way Pop has for the last 3 years, to great effect. He will have his fair share of slashing opportunities but I'll also let Dumars be the ball handler, and run Parker off multiple screens (the way he did against the Grizzlies in the WCF last year) and let him get easy layups that way.
He shot 65% at the rim over the three years, so it's a nice option.
For short periods during the game, namely whenever Sagittaron has Starks playing (someone I don't need to worry about too much on defense), I'll play Nash and Parker together. In this case I'll use Parker exclusively off-ball, and I'll keep spamming a play where he cuts to the basket off a screen and Nash finds him easily, until an adjustment is made.
Other bench guysBell is mostly a shooter, and is like-for-like with Dumars to give him rest, though I lose some ball-handling for a bit.
Pressey is a great point-forward, but I won't utilize that aspect of his game too much. Essentially, it'll help when he gets open because of a Nash PnR, allowing me another guy who can put the ball on the floor instead of just pulling up.
Adams will add a nice dimension, whenever he plays. Usually it'll be when Parker is on, allowing him to slide those nice pocket passes to the cutting Frenchman.
Cummings won't get too many touches, he's here for his defense. He's good to clean up around the rim though.
SummaryI will have 2 of Nash, Parker, Rice and Dirk on the floor at ALL times. I've staggered the minutes so that I have 2 efficient offensive anchors no matter what happens, and at least 1 other shooter and rim finisher at all times.
I'll use the Nash-Rice-Dirk trio for at least 70% of the game, meaning he always has to worry about the pick and roll and my incredible shooting.
I predict a 130+ ORtg for this team against this opponent.
Defensive game-planNow I know I'm not as potent on this end, but I'm not as worried as I would be against a couple of other teams.
As I spoke about in another thread, the mistake Sagittaron made here is picking the earlier version of Magic. While still a potent as hell offensive player and passer, '85 and '86 Magic were not as good of scorers as they were in later years. In '87 he developed a post-game and a jumper, but the jumper was nowhere near where it would be in '89-'91 where it extended out to the three-point line.
The thing is that Magic in those years was not the no. 1 option on the Lakers, Kareem was. Sure, Magic was the key to the offense, but they always had the option of just throwing it into Kareem when the offense broke down.
Here, there is no one on my opponent's team who would give them that luxury. Everyone is too dependent on Magic to score. In the half-court, things would get messy.
Deke has no real offensive skills, he was basically a guy who caught lobs and scored off offensive rebounds. Kemp was athletic as hell but had limited range and no real post-game. Worthy was fantastic player but he got a LOT of points in transition, and was entirely dependent on getting to the rim. He had no jumper. Ellis was a catch and shoot player as well, for the most part. Phenomenal scorer of course but not much of an isolation player and wasn't too comfortable with the ball on the floor.
Magic is the key here. He was still a beast in the years chosen but I still see a few holes in his game. He will be under HEAVY pressure to create for everyone. Unlike my team, where Nash, Dumars and Dirk are all good at putting the ball on the floor and making plays for others, Magic has to do it mostly by himself with this lineup.
Dumars will guard him. He's giving up 6 inches but I'm ok with that. DJ gave up 5 inches and did a mostly creditable job on Magic. Also, this version of Magic didn't have a real post-game with which he could take Dumars down low and punish him with.
All Dumars has to do is keep in front of Magic, and protect the drive. He can play off him because the jumper wasn't there as much.
Magic will still do a good deal of damage but it'll be limited, and if he can't create then the whole team has problems.
I'll have Nash on Ellis, which is perfect, because he's much better at off-ball defense.
Deke is almost a non-factor on offense unless he gets a lob near the basket or an offensive rebound or something, so Parish can help off him very easily if need be.
Kemp is more athletic than Dirk but again, one on one it's a matchup I'm comfortable with because he needs others to create for him.
If he runs a Magic/Kemp pick and roll I'll give up some points but my guys are bigger up front than his, meaning there'll be solid defense waiting at the rim, and he doesn't have the shooters to make me pay if I have my perimeter guys rotate over to help.
I can't comment on the bench yet because I don't know about my opponent's rotations but the only guy I worry about is Davis, who I'll have Bell/Dumars stick to as much as possible.
My team is too good offensively to have too many turnovers for Sagittaron to consistently use the break to score. There'll be some quick dunks for sure, but I'll be limiting the number of such possessions. On the boards, I have Dirk and Parish, two good, of it not great rebounders, who will box out hard and make it difficult for him to get the break moving smoothly.
ConclusionThat was a lot longer than I expected... And there's more to come because I'm not sure about my opponent's bench rotation.
Overall, I will give up points for sure, he's got a damn good offensive team, but his lack of a true offensive anchor who can score AND create will hurt him.
I can't see him stopping my offense at all, so I think this is my series.
Now it's up to the judges.