Post#6 » by ardee » Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:14 am
Ok nice write up O_6.
Let me start with a disclaimer.
I know I will not be shutting down O_6's team. Durant is a monster.
Thankfully, my team is not predicated on defense. Which is where the fun starts.
Rotations
I will go with the same starting line-up, but the minutes will be different from my previous matchup, that is for sure.
Nash (36)/Parker (12)
Dumars (35)/Bell (13)
Rice (25)/Pressey (15)/Bell (10)
Dirk (38)/Cummings (10)
Parish (38)/Cummings (10)
Sorry Alvan, I'm cutting you out of the rotation. And Tony, you'll get your minutes back next round.
Offense
Now when I look at the starting line-up for my opponent, I see only one guy who is going to make impact defensively and that is Ewing. Don't get me wrong, Rasheed Wallace is a very good defensive player but he is not the kind of pick and roll destroyer my opponent would need to ice my guys. He doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with the trickiness of Nash, and he has neither the length to contest Dirk's jumpers nor does he have the hops to block him in the post.
As for the perimeter, Penny is extremely athletic but he was never known to be a specialist PG defender, and he's going to find himself on Dirk or Cummings most of the time anyway given the amount I'm going to be using screens. Durant is a positive defender this season but he's going to have his hands completely full with Rice, if he leaves him even for a second there'll be trouble, so I'm not worried about him attacking my main options. Joe Johnson is a liability.
So my two primary plays will remain the Nash/Dirk PnR and Dirk posting up.
On the PnR, I think O_6's only option is to hedge. He has length in Penny and Rasheed that could potentially cause some trouble in the passing lanes for Nash but I'm very confident in Nash's ability to split the double team. He's put up monster numbers in Playoff series' with freaking Tim Duncan as the defensive big man, he's not going to have problems getting the ball wherever he needs to here.
I don't need to go over the options again I think. Dirk is a 50% mid-range shooter, Nash, Dirk, Rice and Dumars are all 40-45% three-point shooters, Rice is 66% in the corner, so Penny and Rasheed are not going to be getting much help, if they do, well, it's goodnight.
I will utilize Parish more in this matchup as well. He has a good midrange jumper, and if he pulls Ewing out of the paint it opens up lanes for Nash, Dumars and Dirk. Ewing can absolutely not afford to help on any plays because when he did that in the series he played against Boston in 1990, Parish was a 126 ORtg player, he took advantage. It didn't make too much of a difference because this was an older Parish capable of only 18.4 USG. This is a Parish who can make him pay for 48 minutes every time he strays even a little bit.
For defensive purposes, I will be using Bell more in this matchup. He will play the same role as Rice, essentially just a spot-up 3-point shooter at just as good efficiency. I don't use Rice on-ball so I don't lose anything really.
Parker loses his time as a 2 but I'm going to use him like crazy when Brandon is playing, and whenever DJ is off the floor basically. For that time my offense will revolve solely around attacking that matchup and exposing JJ and Brandon like crazy.
As for JJ guarding Nash, even for short periods, that's going to be awesome for me. JJ is just a bad defensive player, he doesn't understand how to go under screens, there'll be a lot of occassions during that short time he is on Nash that I'll be having Nash just pull-up off the pick and roll instead of finding the roll-man or shooters. Why not, for a 55% 2 point shooter?
And finally, good luck to anyone trying to guard Dirk, specifically Battier and McDyess. This is 2009-11 Dirk, the one with the complete post-game. He is not troubled by smaller guys. He's going to need to be doubled, and my shooters will flourish off that.
Overall I like the matchups for my team. Penny can't guard Nash, if my opponent has any hope of stopping my pick and roll he's going to have to leave shooters open, and they'll make him pay, Ewing can't guard Parish because he risks leaving the lane exposed, and absolutely nobody can guard Dirk.
I'll maintain my 125ish+ ORtg, I can say that with confidence.
Defense
The matchups are worse for me here than with my previous opponent, but I still have confidence.
-Dumars will guard Penny. It's worth noting in 1996, an aged Dumars held Penny to 42% shooting from the field in their Playoff series. I'm not saying even a peak Dumars will do the same but it's a good matchup and Penny will not be operating at peak effectiveness.
-I'm happy with Nash on JJ. If O_6 wants to spam that, by all means. It would mean taking the ball out of Durant and Penny's hands, and I'd much rather have JJ 'kill' me than those two. It's a bad matchup but it's one I'll gladly take because O_6 going to it will stagnate his offense and give a worse overall product on that side of the ball.
-I'm staggering Rice's minutes so he has to play minimal time when Durant is on the floor. There will be times when he is guarding him, yes, and fine, I'll take that because he gives me a bigger advantage on the other end. But I'm utilizing Bell more in this matchup, and there's a precedent... In the 2013 Playoffs, Memphis used Tony Allen and hounding team defense to make Durant inefficient from the field. It's only this year that Durant has really had that holy **** level floor game, in 2012 and 2013 he still had troubles with putting the ball on the floor. He'll get his for sure, but Bell/Pressey will make him work for it.
-I'm using Cummings more in this matchup up front. He's the type of dirty banger who could get in Rasheed's head and have him called for those ever famous technicals. He's also monstrously strong, I'm happy to put him on Ewing for a little while. When Dirk is on the floor, I'm ok with him on Wallace. Wallace would post him up no doubt, but it's the same thing as JJ on Nash.... If he wants to exploit that matchup it's fine with me, vs. using Durant and Penny.
-The main thing here is Ewing and Parish. Parish is athletic enough to force Ewing into more jumpers. He'll get his no doubt but a peak Parish was among the best defenders in the league. He's not going to be putting up 32-11 like he did on an older Parish in 1990. I'm happy having Ewing shoot jumpers rather than a Penny/KD layup line. I'll also have Cummings on Ewing for a little while to be extra physical with him. I don't care if he gets whistled for it, the purpose will just be to shake him up and be nasty.
Summation, Ewing and KD will get theirs, but particularly Ewing will not be on his usual efficient. I'd take a 30 ppg on KD from 60% TS but it won't be a super effective 30 ppg, more like the 30 ppg he put up on the Heat in the 2012 Finals, because the spacing is a little off for O_6's team, allowing me to play his guys one on one most of the time. Pressey, Bell and Dumars is a pretty good wing defensive rotation so I'm happy having those guys spend all their time on the floor just hounding Durant, like the 2013 Grizzlies did.
Penny will have his effectiveness limited by Dumars. The other guys, like I said, I'm not worried about. I'd encourage O_6 to go to the likes of Rasheed and JJ in fact.
I think he scores on me, no doubt, but he will not stop me from scoring as efficiently as I can. The key is that my bigs will draw his out of the paint with their shooting, he doesn't have the right personnel to handle my PnR and finally, no one can stop Dirk.
It'd go 7 no doubt but I think I would edge it. Up to the judges now.
)
I definitely love that. Sheed would make Dirk work on defense by taking him out to the three point line. He was also extremely athletic (much more athletic than Nowitzki) during the 2001-03 stretch. Basically he'd give Dirk a taste of his own medicine. I know 0_6 noted that Wallace is going to be only his 5th option (that's perfectly understandable), but I'm sure that Sheed would get two or three open threes with the amount of offensive talent on 0_6's team which requires heavy attention from ardee's defense.
I'm sure your guys would put up quite a fight against them, but I just don't see how you could win that.
Relax. Stay coaching WNBA teams, killah.