Official Speculation Thread Part 1 (Summer League 2014)

[TSKD000]

After seeing Marble and Curry shoot/play, i want to see this lineup....

PG: Oladipo/Payton/Curry
SG: Fournier/Marble/B. Gordon/Green
SF: Harris/Harkless
PF: A. Gordon/Nicholson/Osby
C: Vucevic/O'Quinn/Dedmon

No way I would play Ben or Green over Marble!

[OrlandO]

Henny didn't sign Ben Gordon to be a third stringer. Unless he plays like duhon, expect him to get at least 20 minutes.

[ezzzp]

Henny didn't sign Ben Gordon to be a third stringer. Unless he plays like duhon, expect him to get at least 20 minutes.

whose minutes do you cut?

[cedric76]

Why haven't we signed ed Davis yet?

Come on Rob

[Bensational]

So where is Melo going to end up?

If I were him, the choice would be an easy Houston.

Dwight/Melo/Harden - that's a solid trio. you add in the right role players, and they'd be a nightmare to go up against. Team would need a better coach, though.

Chicago - you can't rely on Rose, so your decision would need to be "can I win with Thibs and Noah/Gibson/Mirotic/Butler/McDermott? Or is he going to have the same problem he's had his whole career - no help on offense?

LA - again, you can't rely on Kobe. Do they sell you on the promise of playing with Love in 2015/16?

New York - you won't be a contender this season, but next season you can get paid more than on any other team, and if the team can move JR Smith, you could have enough space to sign TWO of M.Gasol, LMA, Love, Rondo, Dragic, Jefferson, Asik to add to a Calderon/Hardaway JR core.


The top two are the only solid promise of being a contender straight away. The other two are just promises that the other FAs will come and join you.

[Showbiz Bear]

Jumping ahead a bit, but what are the odds our boy Gordon participates in the slam dunk contest? Dude has too much dynamite in those young legs to sit out that exhibition.

[cedric76]

So where is Melo going to end up?

If I were him, the choice would be an easy Houston.

Dwight/Melo/Harden - that's a solid trio. you add in the right role players, and they'd be a nightmare to go up against. Team would need a better coach, though.

Chicago - you can't rely on Rose, so your decision would need to be "can I win with Thibs and Noah/Gibson/Mirotic/Butler/McDermott? Or is he going to have the same problem he's had his whole career - no help on offense?

LA - again, you can't rely on Kobe. Do they sell you on the promise of playing with Love in 2015/16?

New York - you won't be a contender this season, but next season you can get paid more than on any other team, and if the team can move JR Smith, you could have enough space to sign TWO of M.Gasol, LMA, Love, Rondo, Dragic, Jefferson, Asik to add to a Calderon/Hardaway JR core.


The top two are the only solid promise of being a contender straight away. The other two are just promises that the other FAs will come and join you.

Houston should go hard after Bosh not melo

Harden/parson/Bosh/d12 is a tough core

[Bensational]

Jumping ahead a bit, but what are the odds our boy Gordon participates in the slam dunk contest? Dude has too much dynamite in those young legs to sit out that exhibition.

yeah, i think it's a lock he does the dunk contest.

go to 1:20.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcI8R8yFfRc&feature=kp[/youtube]

that behind the back dunk is tight.

*edit - so tight i had to make it my sig.

[tranjSAIC]

With what I have saw so far in 2 quarters of play this is my analysis

- Dipo will start as our PG
- Payton is no where near starting level and will be a backup
- Gordon looks a bit lost and certainly is not going to start at PF for us
- Gordon might have to play more SF position than PF
- Curry will make the team
- Dedmon will make the team

Projected Lineup

Dipo/Payton/Curry
Fournier/Green/BG
Harris/Harkless/Gordon
OQuinn/Gordon/Nicholson
Vuc/OQuinn/Dedmon

Bottom 5 team in the east.

I think we might be regretting passing up on Exum unfortunately.

Good call on all that, I know its early in summer league but the one thing that i'm worried about is the way Payton was dribble. I hope it was just his nerves but his handle did not seem that great, plus he didn't look as athletic as I was expecting. He seemed to have a hard time creating separation on guys.

[OrlandO]

Henny didn't sign Ben Gordon to be a third stringer. Unless he plays like duhon, expect him to get at least 20 minutes.

whose minutes do you cut?

It's tough to say without knowing who is starting, but I keep seeing B. Gordon third on people's depth charts... there's just no way. You don't pay a player $4.5 million to be a third stringer. At this point, can we even be positive he won't start on opening night?

[T-Cat]

Per NBA rules. can rookies be traded right now after just signed if the right deal comes along for Henny?

[Nyce_1]

Per NBA rules. can rookies be traded right now after just signed if the right deal comes along for Henny?

have to wait 30 if they already signed their contracts. If not, their rights can be traded right away.

[3ddman23]

Henny didn't sign Ben Gordon to be a third stringer. Unless he plays like duhon, expect him to get at least 20 minutes.

whose minutes do you cut?

It's tough to say without knowing who is starting, but I keep seeing B. Gordon third on people's depth charts... there's just no way. You don't pay a player $4.5 million to be a third stringer. At this point, can we even be positive he won't start on opening night?

unfortunately i have a feeling he will be starting at sg while victor starts at pg.

[orlando1214]

whose minutes do you cut?

It's tough to say without knowing who is starting, but I keep seeing B. Gordon third on people's depth charts... there's just no way. You don't pay a player $4.5 million to be a third stringer. At this point, can we even be positive he won't start on opening night?

unfortunately i have a feeling he will be starting at sg while victor starts at pg.

We didn't trade Afflalo so that someone older could start in his place. They want the young guys to start and get a lot of minutes, Gordon is just a veteran presence to come off the bench, that's all he is, doesn't matter how much he is paid. I mean don't you think the Magic would have just paid Jameer if they wanted a veteran to start? I'm still convinced Dipo and Fournier will be the starting guards, with a chance that Payton takes over starting at Point Guard later on in the year.

[doct3r dr3]

Spoiler:

He wasn't a very good one.

The efficiency he had last year was terrible. He is one year younger than Booker and Mike Scott who did what we wish Nicholson would do here. Maybe Vaughn was intentionally keeping Nicholson from playing well but who knows.

This year was a down year offensively for AN, and still, let's look at all of the folks who shot these percentages or better from all the following distances:


<5 ft.........63%....(Josh Smith - 63.2%)
5-9 ft........39%....(Derrick Favors - 38.6%)
20-24 ft.....40%....(James Harden - 40.2%)

(minimum 80 5-9 ft attempts, 60 20-24 ft attempts)

L. James
K. Durant
K. Love
D. Wade
C. Paul
J. Johnson
A. Nicholson


Source: NBA.com/Stats

He is pretty bad at guarding post ups or quick face up fours and he isn't really suited for the uptempo game that we want to play. I hope I am wrong about him, but I don't think that I am in this case.

Post-Up Defense (points per play)
0.63 - J. Maxiell
0.72 - K. O'Quinn
0.72 - N. Vucevic
0.76 - A. Nicholson
0.79 - E. Moore
0.86 - J. Nelson
0.87 - G. Davis
0.89 - V. Oladipo
0.91 - M. Harkless
0.95 - A. Afflalo
0.96 - T. Harris
1.00 - D. Dedmon
1.00 - S. Jones
1.20 - D. Lamb
1.29 - R. Price

Post-Up Defense (FG%)
23.80% - J. Maxiell
34.80% - K. O'Quinn
35.00% - E. Moore
35.90% - A. Nicholson
39.10% - N. Vucevic
40.00% - V. Oladipo
43.90% - A. Afflalo
44.00% - J. Nelson
48.50% - M. Harkless
49.50% - G. Davis
50.00% - D. Lamb
53.10% - T. Harris
53.80% - D. Dedmon
66.70% - S. Jones
66.70% - R. Price

Source: Synergy


Opponent FG% at Rim
45.4% - A. Nicholson
46.2% - K. O'Quinn
46.6% - V. Oladipo
49.1% - E. Moore
53.1% - T. Harris
53.6% - G. Davis
56.4% - N. Vucevic
56.8% - J. Maxiell
58.1% - J. Nelson
58.3% - S. Jones
59.0% - D. Dedmon
59.7% - A. Afflalo
60.5% - M. Harkless
63.6% - R. Price
70.4% - D. Lamb
100.0% - A. Thomas

Source: NBA.com/Stats

Thanks for the stats! I certainly won't try to refute what the numbers are saying here. It looks like Nicholson has been a great defender playing against the second and third unit big men.

The question would be, how will he perform against 1st string big men. I don't think Maxiell would continue to guard 1st string big men and only allow 23% on post ups and by the same token I wouldn't expect Nicholson to have the same level of success as our starting PF. I wish we could compare these stats against starters vs. bench players.

As far as his shooting the same principle applies, but i really wouldn't be as worried because he has proven his shooting and post ups against starters in his first year here as both a starter and 2nd string player. Also seeing his skill set, it is hard to see him being effective offensively, especially since we wouldn't need him to be a high usage player.

Anyways, your stats talked me off the ledge about Nicholsons potential, but I am not sold on him as a starter.

Actually, the first few games of the season I dissected film and tracked for myself how opposing starting PFs were faring against each of our PFs in scoring and on the glass. For the most part, Drew was matching up with the opposing starting PFs better than anyone else (BBD was out with injury), and in some cases, outplaying the opposing starting PF when they shared the court.


G1: David West
G2: Kevin Love
G3: Anthony Davis

[ezzzp]

Henny didn't sign Ben Gordon to be a third stringer. Unless he plays like duhon, expect him to get at least 20 minutes.

whose minutes do you cut?

It's tough to say without knowing who is starting, but I keep seeing B. Gordon third on people's depth charts... there's just no way. You don't pay a player $4.5 million to be a third stringer. At this point, can we even be positive he won't start on opening night?

I don't think BGordon was acquired for basketball reasons but as trade ballast and thus what $ he makes is unimportant in relation to MPG.

There are 96 total minutes per game available at both guard positions:

Oladipo - #2 pick and definitely part of your core. He averaged 25 mpg as a rookie. As the aspiring starting PG/vocal leader, he'll average 28-32 mpg.

Fournier - Hennigan just traded the team's best player + pick for him. He is also 21 years old and acquired to be part of the future. He will get a good chunk of minutes because of this alone; plus he also happens to be pretty good at two skills badly needed (ball handler/perimeter shooting). He will at minimum average 20-25 mpg.

Payton - Magic traded multiple picks to secure him. He'll get lots of leeway/mpg to develop. With only 1 more PG on roster, I can't see him getting less than 20-25 mpg as a rookie unless he fails epically.

...Those three alone have more value/importance to the Magic than B.Gordon's $4.5 and they will utilize 68 to 82 of available guard mpg. That leaves around 14 to 28 mpg to be divided between BGordon, Green, Harkless and possibly Marble/Curry.

PG: Oladipo (20) | Payton (24) | B. Gordon (4)
SG: Fournier (24) | Oladipo (12) | Harkless (6) | B. Gordon (6)
SF: A. Gordon (18) | Harris (12) | Harkless (18)
PF: Harris (16) | O'Quinn (16) | A. Gordon (6) | Nicholson (10)
C: Vucevic (32) | O'Quinn (8) | Dedmon (8)

MPG
Vucevic (32)
Oladipo (32)
Harris (28)
A Gordon (24)
Fournier (24)
Harkless (24)
Payton (24)
Nicholson (10)
B. Gordon (10)
Dedmon (8)

[SOUL]

We're paying him to fill out the roster and not bitch when he's not playing cause he doesn't deserve that much per year anyway.

If it was 4.5 over 3 years we'd play him a lot, but seeing that we can cut him next year, he's most likely getting 10-15 spot minutes.

[FloridaHoosier]

Since everyone is basing stuff based on one Summer League game......I don't think Curry is making this team, IMO.

[orlando1214]

Since everyone is basing stuff based on one Summer League game......I don't think Curry is making this team, IMO.

I think it could either way. However, the Magic really wanted their own D-League team, and now that we have one, it wouldn't surprise me to see Curry, Marble, and Osby to all get signed but sent down there. Really no reason not to, you keep them from being snatched up from another team and they are easily cut if we need the roster spot for a trade or something. We have the space to sign them all though, so right now I'm leaning toward at least Osby and Marble being signed, and maybe Curry as well.

[OrlandO]

whose minutes do you cut?

It's tough to say without knowing who is starting, but I keep seeing B. Gordon third on people's depth charts... there's just no way. You don't pay a player $4.5 million to be a third stringer. At this point, can we even be positive he won't start on opening night?

I don't think BGordon was acquired for basketball reasons but as trade ballast and thus what $ he makes is unimportant in relation to MPG.

There are 96 total minutes per game available at both guard positions:

Oladipo - #2 pick and definitely part of your core. He averaged 25 mpg as a rookie. As the aspiring starting PG/vocal leader, he'll average 28-32 mpg.

Fournier - Hennigan just traded the team's best player + pick for him. He is also 21 years old and acquired to be part of the future. He will get a good chunk of minutes because of this alone; plus he also happens to be pretty good at two skills badly needed (ball handler/perimeter shooting). He will at minimum average 20-25 mpg.

Payton - Magic traded multiple picks to secure him. He'll get lots of leeway/mpg to develop. With only 1 more PG on roster, I can't see him getting less than 20-25 mpg as a rookie unless he fails epically.

...Those three alone have more value/importance to the Magic than B.Gordon's $4.5 and they will utilize 68 to 82 of available guard mpg. That leaves around 14 to 28 mpg to be divided between BGordon, Green, Harkless and possibly Marble/Curry.

PG: Oladipo (20) | Payton (24) | B. Gordon (4)
SG: Fournier (24) | Oladipo (12) | Harkless (6) | B. Gordon (6)
SF: A. Gordon (18) | Harris (12) | Harkless (18)
PF: Harris (16) | O'Quinn (16) | A. Gordon (6) | Nicholson (10)
C: Vucevic (32) | O'Quinn (8) | Dedmon (8)

MPG
Vucevic (32)
Oladipo (32)
Harris (28)
A Gordon (24)
Fournier (24)
Harkless (24)
Payton (24)
Nicholson (10)
B. Gordon (10)
Dedmon (8)

You have to play Gordon if you want to trade him. 10mpg is not enough. I'm going to laugh when Gordon ends up starting and this board has a meltdown.