RealGM Top 100 List #7

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#241 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:12 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:Well I was talking about when both of them were good (pre back injury). From 80-87 their supporting casts were about even and Magic won more 4-3 and Magic usually outperformed Bird head to head in the postseason which is why I give Magic the edge.


Celtics 2nd best player 1980-1982 was either aging Nate Archibald or Cornbread Maxwell, and they started Chris Ford.

The Lakers had Kareen Abdul-Jabbar

The Lakers were better until McHale got better and Kareem got older.

So really 80-82 Lakers were better
83 didn't matter Fo Fo Fo

84-85 even
86 Celtics get Walton - better -
87 Celtics lose Walton, Lakers get Thompson - more better - Maybe best team ever
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#242 » by kayess » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:22 pm

andrewww wrote:For those in the LeBron is an elite defender train, since he is such a stat sheet stuffer let's take a closer look at one of the famed categories for determining defensive impact, RAPM which includes both RS and playoffs. Here are LeBron's numbers:

http://www.gotbuckets.com/statistics/rapm/

2014 (+0.25)
2013 (+1.22)
2012 (+1.89)
2011 (+2.01)
2010 (+2.39)
2009 (+2.16)
2008 (+1.23)

As a comparison to the league's RAPM leader
2014 (+4.55) Kevin Garnett
2013 (+6.53) Kevin Garnett
2012 (+5.61) Kevin Garnett
2011 (+5.74) Kevin Garnett
2010 (+4.59) Kevin Garnett
2009 (+5.01) Kevin Garnett
2008 (+3.97) Chuck Hayes

Again, not 1 defensive metric is 100% accurate barometer of defensive impact, but there are more advanced stats than less that show that LeBron is an overrated defender, much like Kobe.


I don't think anyone was saying he was KG level though, that's absurd.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#243 » by acrossthecourt » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:35 pm

How much do we discount Mikan? If he has, say, four MVPs, does that mean you discount him and say it's more like 1 MVP? Just want a rough guess to see what people think.

RSCD3_ wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
I'm more impressed by Garnett's defense from just the sheer intelligence he displays, combined with his incredible physical gifts. ElGee made a pretty great post about this, how even Hakeem isn't his equal in terms of "horizontal" defense (lateral quickness, mobility, timing, rotations, diagnosing plays, recovery, angles, etc). As a result, I think Garnett is a slightly better defender, and imo, the best defensive player since Russell...I understand if people don't agree, however.

Also, I think Hakeem was the better player, prime vs prime. Even if Garnett was the better defender (not a given), Hakeem is better offensively, and that's a bigger difference.

I give Garnett an edge with regards to longevity though, but not really a big one. I'm probably going to pick Hakeem. Better player, close enough longevity.

I personally have Hakeem at #4...if it wasn't for Shaq not being off the board for the last few threads, I would have voted for him a while
ago.


Their passing skills appear to be close but I think Hakeem had more of an impact as a passer because he frequented the low post more.

There's no way they're close. Hakeem took a while until he was a great passer.

fatal9 wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:
acrossthecourt wrote:And remember, the Sonics beat them in '93, which is probably his best season, yet they lost in the first round in '94. With Jordan's retirement and that loss, the Rockets were lucky.


What does this have to do with Hakeem Olajuwon?

I wonder the same thing. In '93, the Rockets opened their season in Japan in B2B games vs. the Sonics. The team still hadn't come together yet and played a couple of listless, forgettable games. Until the flight to Japan, the team and organization weren't even sure if Hakeem was going to be there for the season. Then the two teams faced off mid-season twice and split those games. Then they played a tight playoff series that came down to the last possessions of a game 7 and the difference may have been Seattle getting a few favorable calls in crunch time (literally one possession goes differently and this narrative falls apart). Hakeem by any reasonable account, had an incredible all around series despite facing an enormous amount of defensive attention. In 1994, both teams split the season series 2-2 (with Hakeem averaging 28 ppg on 69 FG% and 70 TS% in these games...no, that's not a mistake). The '95 and '96 Rocket teams were different in many ways (not just with roster changes, but how healthy they were in the regular season, in '96 basically every key player missed at least 10 games) and lost every game they faced Seattle in. Then the '97 team was even more different and the Rockets beat them in 7 (as long as we're mentioning results multiple seasons down the line to project what would happen earlier). Seattle did have certain matchup advantages against the Rockets depending on the year, but what here makes people so confident that the Sonics were this sure bet to beat the Rockets in '94? In '93 and '94, the teams kept battling each other to a draw and basically maintained home court. This also ignores the fact that Seattle was perhaps the most unreliable top seeded team ever, constantly losing to teams they were favored against throughout the 90s (them struggling or losing to lower seed teams was not an anomaly, it was a routine).

Secondly, who cares? What does this have to with the inherent qualities of Hakeem's game?

Because without those titles there would be no traction for Hakeem above guys like Magic and Shaq. That's the storyline people love to trot out for Hakeem, but he easily could have lost those titles.

Let's talk about Hakeem's game outside of those two years. His offense post '94? Why were his late 90's RAPM scores so low? He was still a good passer and post player. What about pre, say, '92 Hakeem?

DannyNoonan1221 wrote:While I understand per100, per36 stats, I am not a big supporter of them. Why should we look at a player's per100 stats? We are talking about how these players rank based on what they did on the court during a 48 minute game. I do not agree with the per 100 mindset- a players impact and role is based on what they actually do in 48 minutes. If a coach could give these guys 100 possessions every game and they would actually produce what their per100 stats did that would be nothing short of miraculous. Resting on the bench plays a big part in a players production, both positive (keeping them fresh) and negative (less chances to produce). If people do not agree with this or have questions I can go into more detail but won't for right now.

That's not the point of per minute/possession stats.

It's to more accurately gauge value by seeing what a player produces. If a player who averages 20 points retires, those 20 points don't disappear. They're distributed to the rest of the team. Hence, you need to judge how replaceable those stats were. Per possessions stats let you do this.

ronnymac2 wrote:Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

Not sure how much time I'll have, so I'll place my vote now.

I'm voting for Hakeem because I believe he gives me the best chance to win more titles than any other player. His years from 1986-1990 to me show he was a legitimate championship piece on his teams. His 1990 season in my opinion is the greatest defensive season in NBA history not including Bill Russell, and he still gives you strong offense (more valuable offense if he were on a better offensive teams). I am convinced these years are the prime — not peak, but prime — years of a GOAT candidate. 1996 and 1997 are on par with 1986-1990. 1991-1992 are only slightly below that. And 1993-1995 are GOAT level peak years.

LeBron James from 2008-2014 gives me 7 years on par with Olajuwon's best (1989-1990, 1993-1997), MAYBE even better, but Hakeem gives me extra value in his other 5 years that LBJ's 2005-2007 can't overcome. I do believe LeBron James will end up surpassing Hakeem and Shaq within the next 2-3 seasons and perhaps even Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at some point thereafter. Right now, I can't put him the King over the Dream.

I have read some tremendous arguments for LeBron though. I actually thought about voting for James over O'Neal in the last thread and Olajuwon here.

See, where I differ is that I don't think Hakeem's seven best years are on par with him at all. Like 1997. I just never see anyone regard that season highly, while LeBron has some of the best ever. There's no metric saying Olajuwon was an MVP-level player in 1997, even RAPM, and watching him and looking back at contemporary accounts I think that's true.

I think that people are overrating him a little because they assume elite defender + fancy post player, hence you get the best defense with one of the best offensive players ever. And that's not true. We've seen other post guys like Duncan put up disappointing impact offensive numbers. The post is overrated, even in the 90's, The exception is Shaq, but he destroyed other teams, warped the court, and was more efficient. I think he was a much better passer too. I don't think Olajuwon is an "elite" offensive anchor/focal point based on what I've seen the stats available. He doesn't pass like Shaq, and certainly doesn't help his teammates like Magic/LeBron/Bird, and his efficiency is nothing spectacular. He wasn't a pure post up guy. There were a lot of face-up plays and midrange jumpers. After LeBron/Bird/Magic, all of whom clearly "owned" the league for a while, he's probably up next though. I'll have to think about him versus Garnett.

His 4 MVPs are most definitely impressive and deserved, but level of competition does factor in to this. In the 2000s, you had Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, and KG dualing it out for MVPs. The only competition close to his level now is Durant. Much much easier to stack up on the allocades.

Um LeBron competed against those guys too. His 2009 MVP was one of the most impressive ever given the competition from Wade, Chris Paul, and Kobe. That Wade season was crazy. Garnett was in contention for MVP in 2009 as well.

LeBron going up against Durant is not slander. He beat him in 2013 when everyone was salivating over his 50/40/90 stats.

I mean, Iverson won an MVP. LeBron could have won an MVP over him. edit: You're also using like ten years of players to try to make LeBron look bad. Shaq peaked in 2000 and Kobe was competing for MVPs in the late 00's. Garnett and Duncan peaked a little after Shaq. Yet your'e comparing all those guys to LeBron's second period of MVP titles when he goes up against Durant.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#244 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:42 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:Well I was talking about when both of them were good (pre back injury). From 80-87 their supporting casts were about even and Magic won more 4-3 and Magic usually outperformed Bird head to head in the postseason which is why I give Magic the edge.


Celtics 2nd best player 1980-1982 was either aging Nate Archibald or Cornbread Maxwell, and they started Chris Ford.

The Lakers had Kareen Abdul-Jabbar

The Lakers were better until McHale got better and Kareem got older.

So really 80-82 Lakers were better
83 didn't matter Fo Fo Fo

84-85 even
86 Celtics get Walton - better -
87 Celtics lose Walton, Lakers get Thompson - more better - Maybe best team ever

Nate was still good and Cornbread won finals MVP in 81 (and Bird was outplayed by his supporting cast). These guys won a ring with Bird playing pretty bad so overall I'd say they were better than the Lakers who lost to Houston when Magic played bad.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#245 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:19 pm

Notanoob wrote:
DannyNoonan1221 wrote:While I understand per100, per36 stats, I am not a big supporter of them. Why should we look at a player's per100 stats? We are talking about how these players rank based on what they did on the court during a 48 minute game. I do not agree with the per 100 mindset- a players impact and role is based on what they actually do in 48 minutes. If a coach could give these guys 100 possessions every game and they would actually produce what their per100 stats did that would be nothing short of miraculous. Resting on the bench plays a big part in a players production, both positive (keeping them fresh) and negative (less chances to produce). If people do not agree with this or have questions I can go into more detail but won't for right now.
For the purpose of all-time discussions, per36 won't come up until Manu gets involved, but the per100 possessions is useful simply for comparing guys who played at very different paces. It's mostly useful for the more extreme outliers, really. Those early 60's and 70's guys were playing and such a different pace that their stats have to be adjusted to account for it to compare them with more recent players.

Otherwise, the minutes and pace differences should only be marginal and not really swing anyone's opinions.



Thank you. I wasn't thinking about pace when I should have been.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#246 » by DannyNoonan1221 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:21 pm

magicmerl wrote:
DannyNoonan1221 wrote:While I understand per100, per36 stats, I am not a big supporter of them. Why should we look at a player's per100 stats? We are talking about how these players rank based on what they did on the court during a 48 minute game. I do not agree with the per 100 mindset- a players impact and role is based on what they actually do in 48 minutes. If a coach could give these guys 100 possessions every game and they would actually produce what their per100 stats did that would be nothing short of miraculous.

Imagine two teams. One plays at 80 possessions per game. The other plays at 100 possessions per game, on average. I think it's ridiculous to think that a player on the 100 possession team is 'better' simply because they have 25% more possession to accumulate stats.

If those two teams were to play each other head to head, you wouldn't have one team get 100 possessions and the other 80. Basketball possessions are defined in such a way that teams have a near-equal number of them in a game.

So using per-100 stats is an attempt to guesstimate what a player's production would be in a game where they had the same number of possessions. It's a vital part of directly comparing the two players in my mind.

DannyNoonan1221 wrote:I do find it interesting that LeBron's PER is that much higher than Magic's though even though he is -.03 in TS%.

LeBron has an enormous USG% advantage. Not only is he out there for a higher number of minutes per game like you point out, he's also consuming a higher proportion of his team's possessions each minute he is on the court.


Got it. I knew I was forgetting something in the PER equation that would explain the difference.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#247 » by therealbig3 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:39 pm

Not sure how he was in Toronto from 01-04, but Carter was a very solid defender for the Nets from 05-08. Turns out, when you play with good defensive players, and in a situation that you're pleased with, you can end up looking a lot better defensively.

And hasn't Wade been awful in recent years defensively? I thought he kind of sucked defensively in 13 and 14, and wasn't that great in 12 either. Injured in 07 and 08. Rookie in 04. Had to carry the Heat in 09 and 10. Makes sense to me if his defense wasn't that special.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#248 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:40 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:Well I was talking about when both of them were good (pre back injury). From 80-87 their supporting casts were about even and Magic won more 4-3 and Magic usually outperformed Bird head to head in the postseason which is why I give Magic the edge.


Celtics 2nd best player 1980-1982 was either aging Nate Archibald or Cornbread Maxwell, and they started Chris Ford.

The Lakers had Kareen Abdul-Jabbar

The Lakers were better until McHale got better and Kareem got older.

So really 80-82 Lakers were better
83 didn't matter Fo Fo Fo

84-85 even
86 Celtics get Walton - better -
87 Celtics lose Walton, Lakers get Thompson - more better - Maybe best team ever

Nate was still good and Cornbread won finals MVP in 81 (and Bird was outplayed by his supporting cast). These guys won a ring with Bird playing pretty bad so overall I'd say they were better than the Lakers who lost to Houston when Magic played bad.


81 celts vs lakers

Jim chones and Chris ford even old pros 8-9 year starters toward end of career. Chones would have been #1-2 draft pick . Ford was 3rd best player on college team.

Wilkes maxwell pretty even. Wilkes made hof maxwell at top of his game

Nixon vs 81 archibald 2 and 3 in total assists. Nixon better scorer in 81 and better on d than Nate ever was. Call it even


Parrish - jabbar in 81 for tie breaker?
Not even close

Also bird averaged 26-27 ppg in last 3 games against one of greatest defensive players ever, bobby jones, to overcome 3-1 deficit in ECF

If magic played as well against Houston as bird played against them lakers win series.


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#249 » by PCProductions » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:44 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Not sure how he was in Toronto from 01-04, but Carter was a very solid defender for the Nets from 05-08. Turns out, when you play with good defensive players, and in a situation that you're pleased with, you can end up looking a lot better defensively.

And hasn't Wade been awful in recent years defensively? I thought he kind of sucked defensively in 13 and 14, and wasn't that great in 12 either. Injured in 07 and 08. Rookie in 04. Had to carry the Heat in 09 and 10. Makes sense to me if his defense wasn't that special.

I thought Wade's defense was really good in 12 and 13, especially during the winning streak period. Every facet of his game fell apart in the 13 playoffs, though.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#250 » by PaulieWal » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:49 pm

therealbig3 wrote:Not sure how he was in Toronto from 01-04, but Carter was a very solid defender for the Nets from 05-08. Turns out, when you play with good defensive players, and in a situation that you're pleased with, you can end up looking a lot better defensively.

And hasn't Wade been awful in recent years defensively? I thought he kind of sucked defensively in 13 and 14, and wasn't that great in 12 either. Injured in 07 and 08. Rookie in 04. Had to carry the Heat in 09 and 10. Makes sense to me if his defense wasn't that special.


Just going by the eye-test his defense was still pretty good in 2012. Him and LeBron were both locked in that season and were terrors on the wing. In 13 his defense was slow to pick-up because of the off-season knee surgery but it was good for most of the RS. In the playoffs his play obviously declined but he still wasn't a minus defender. In 14, for the first time I have seen him as a minus defender and he was not able to stop anyone during the playoffs (even during the Indiana series). By the time the Finals ended his defense was James Hardenesque and I hope he can bounce back next year.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#251 » by kayess » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:02 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
colts18 wrote:
ardee wrote:

Are you really bringing this to a 'I've watched more than you' argument?



No. I'm making the exact opposite argument. My argument is that I've probably watched like 1% of Carter's possessions in the past 14 years so who am I to judge if he was a better defender than Wade or Kobe. I can easily judge offense, but its much harder for defense especially when you consider that people watch games focusing on the offense not individual defenders. That's why I use RAPM as a tool because it doesn't rely on any eye test. I'm not saying its perfect, but its a tool.

I would agree that evaluating defense is harder. The question is why RAPM is the answer. Vlade Divac is rated higher than Ben Wallace, Bogut, and Dwight by it.

97-14 DRAPM:
Divac - 2.60
Big Ben - 2.39
Bogut - 2.35
Marc Gasol - 2.09
Dwight - 1.96

To me, its clear that Divac was just part of more defensive rotations due to the King's lack of size in their roster. Which illustrates why RAPM is fine for coaches to analyze their lineups, but not for individual impact. No two players have the same role, roster, team system, rotations. There is no mechanism to extract the individual from the group.


UBF, I think your criticisms are valid... if levied against PURE APM. There might be no mechanism to "extract the individual from the group", but ridge regression comes pretty damn close and is the best thing we have at the moment.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#252 » by acrossthecourt » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:10 am

I'm going with Lebron James for his sustained high level of play.

Magic's the best competition in my opinion. But his longevity makes him a hard argument over LeBron as they have comparable games/minutes/quality seasons. Let's compare LeBron's last seven seasons, from 2008 to 2014, to Magic's stretch of 1985 to 1991.

LeBron:
30.2 PER
0.290 WS/48
32 usage
61.3 TS%
36.2 AST%
12.8 TOV%
19.2 DRB%
3.9 ORB%

Magic:
25.2 PER
0.243 WS/48
235 usage
61.4 TS%
46.3 AST%
18.6 TOV%
15.3 DRB%
4.5 ORB%

Obviously, box score stats can't capture everything. But LeBron clearly has a large advantage here. PER overrates usage, but Win Shares overrates it. LeBron still crushes him. Both are efficient, high assist guys, but LeBron has a huge lead in usage, bigger than Magic's in assists, and with less turnovers.

There are obviously qualities beyond the box score that lead a team. In tracking what's important for players in terms of impact, basketball researchers have found that, yes, usage does have additional effects, but what's better is the product of usage and assist. This is like a "shot creator" term, something that offensive focal points have. LeBron has 8 of the 25 seasons with a >30 USG% and >30 AST%. Those are the stats of a high volume scorer and a high assist point guard. And to make it unfair, he's highly efficient as well.

The biggest thing the box score loses is probably defense, but that's LeBron's advantage here. LeBron's defense is sometimes overrated, but he's definitely very good in multiple seasons and his versatility is important. His lead in defense over Magic is large enough to have some confidence.

However, Magic is a unique player whose impact is not straightforward. There could be some "Steve Nash" effect in the numbers here, where Magic has monstrous effects on his team's offense by affecting all the small movements on the court acting like a director. Magic has a 3.2 lead in PER compared to prime Nash. Roughly translating that to RAPM, that's like a 2.2 lead. That would put Magic's RAPM somewhere in the range of 7, which is finally comparable to LeBron. However, LeBron has some ridiculous seasons near 10 on RAPM, according to some models and many seasons near 6 or 7. He does appear to have an edge even still, and I would say there's a slight bonus due to the increased level of competition.

The playoffs can't be used against LeBron because Magic, like most players, has his own failures as well. But LeBron wasn't drafted to a team with the best player ever at the time, and his team picked up guys like Larry Hughes, not James Worthy. LeBron finally got great teammates on the Heat and won two titles, but Wade fell apart fast (no surprise to anyone paying attention) and his lack of a three-point shot made him a liability. The guy with the second most 30/30 usage/assist seasons? Wade. It was a poor fit that led to titles just through sheer talent alone, even with a weak bench most seasons and playoff disappointments from Bosh and Wade.

Finally, LeBron is third in MVP shares and Magic is fifth. LeBron has a 1 point lead. It's not crazy to say he has more career value. This is sustained excellence.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#253 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:46 am

Vote for #7 - Magic

Click spoiler to see my first 2 posts in favor of magic (includes some videos):

Spoiler:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sma02.html

12x all star
10x all NBA (9 1st, 1 2nd)
3x reg season MVP (6 other top 3 finishes)
3x Finals MVP
5 championships
Career leader in APG

Not many players started their career off with a bang the way magic did. He led the lakers to 60 wins and a famous finals clinching performance against the sixers with 42 pts, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists. This came against a sixers team who ranked 1st in DRTG that season. To have that kind of impact out the gate as a rookie is almost unfathomable (yes, i'm aware russell had a similar impact).

His marked consistency throughout his career from a statistical as well as team standpoint (lakers made the finals 9 times from 80-91) was remarkable. For a guy who never really developed a 3 pt shot and did play guard regardless of size, posting a TS% of 60+ for the majority of his career was more than impressive.

No doubt he had plenty of talent around him over the years, but he was the key to navigating that team to their success throughout the 80s (queue the "tragic johnson" stories...) He had a truly unique impact on the court due to decision making that was only rivaled by a select few in the history of the league.

Haven't been able to find any RAPM data from the 80s, but this chart from the 90s indicates that even late in his career, magic was at the top of the list:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/90s.html

We need to consider the fact that magic was forced to retire at 31 due to illness, and not a basketball related injury. It makes me wonder how productive and successful he would've been up to say age 35. I know it's discussed, but not nearly as much as I would expect. In his last season he played in 79 games, averaging the following:

19 PPG, 7 RPG, 12.5 APG, 1 SPG

~47% FG, 38% 3PT, 86% FT, 62% TS

117/107 OFF/DEF rating, .18 WS/48

His playoff production taking the lakers to the finals that year didn't drop off much at all, scoring more PPG on only a slightly lower TS%. Considering he still put up respectable #s at 36 after being out of the league for 5 years, I could see his production only dipping slightly each season from 31 to 35.

I can't help but think about how Walton's short prime is valued so highly when the majority of his career was derailed by injuries. I'm not saying he isn't deserving, but a guy like ralph sampson (who yes, wasn't as good as walton) for example doesn't really get the same treatment.

*EDIT* - Long story short, it's just something to think about. My ranking magic #3 is still based on his NBA career as a whole only.


I'd like to clarify 1 other thing about wondering how magic's career would progress if he never got HIV: there's a significant and consistent sample size upon which we could extrapolate. That isn't the case for guys like sabonis who came into the league post prime or walton who in his very short prime only played in 60+ games in 1 season.

Again, not part of my ranking. Just think he's more of a unique case than others.

Some game footage of note:

85 Playoffs G5 vs. Blazers - 34 PTS, 9 REB, 19 AST (closeout game)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWm93xi3x8U[/youtube]

88-99 vs. Sixers - 32 PTS, 11 REB, 20 AST

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 80PHI.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoELfNFZaQ[/youtube]

88 Playoffs G7 vs. Jazz - 23 PTS, 9 REB, 16 AST

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10LAL.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa6GJo2fCYQ[/youtube]

87 Finals G4 vs. Celtics - 29 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST (famous game winning hook shot down the middle)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 90BOS.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n1-KIcoIzU[/youtube]

80 Finals G6 vs. Sixers - 42 PTS, 15 REB, 7 AST (closeout game without kareem)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 60PHI.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au7WJbus5BM[/youtube]

A few other thoughts on Magic:

When he couldn't lead his team all the way to a championship, he still played at an elite level in elimination losses.

STATS IN ELIMINATION LOSSES (thanks to fpliii and http://nbastats.net for the stats dating back to 1980!)


22.7 PPG, 8 RPG, 12.8 APG, 41% FG, 83% FT

I left out 82, 89 and 96 as they're not as relevant (82 injured most of the season, 89 played 5 min in elim game against DET, 96 is like jordan on the wizards -- it was… bizarre)

In one way or another, he put his team on his back, doing all he could to help them win. Can't win em all, though.

A few more impressive playoff games of note:

89 vs. POR - 35 PTS, 8 REB, 12 AST, 5 STL, 3 TO, 6/11 FG, 4/8 3PT, 11/11 FT, 73% TS, 155/108 OFF/DEF RTG - http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 00LAL.html

87 vs. BOS - 29 PTS, 8 REB, 13 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 0 TO, 13/25 FT, 3/3 FT, 55% TS, 141/110 OFF/DEF RTG - http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 20LAL.html

86 vs. HOU - 26 PTS, 7 REB, 18 AST, 3 STL, 4 TO, 9/15 FG, 8/13 FT, 63% TS, 127/101 OFF/DEF RTG- http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 00LAL.html

I'd also argue that he was a top 3 basketball mind of all time, and if you want to be conservative he was very clearly top 5. His on the fly decision making was incredible, and he followed that up with consistent play overall. If magic didn't live up to expectations, his truly unique skill set wouldn't have been as impressive. The fact that his level of play paralleled that skill set puts him in very small company.

Also, per ronnymac2:

We get essentially 4 different Magic Johnsons:

1. We get swiss army knife Magic, the triple-double machine with his best defense.
2. Then when Nixon leaves, we get Super PG Magic.
3. Then he gets the keys and we see 24 point, 12 assist, super post game PEAK Magic.
4. Finally we get unstoppable efficiency monster Magic with a 3-point shot and a perfect post game.

I'm not a huge fan of the term "portability" being thrown around these days (it gives me this negative feeling as it seems to go hand in hand with people who over-emphasize "the right way to play"). That said, I think ronnymac2's post really exemplifies how magic was able to change his game several times throughout his career and still remain a consistent force production-wise as well as leading his team to success. No, he doesn't have duncan's longevity, but when he retired 12 years into his career, he was still an elite NBA player who finished 2nd in MVP voting.

Lastly, some info I posted earlier in the thread regarding Magic and Paul Westhead:

viewtopic.php?p=40649485#p40649485

Lakers went in the right direction promoting riley to head coach, and the rest is history.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#254 » by Baller2014 » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:01 am

Since you post was not civil, I'm going to focus on just a few points, for the benefit of other posters reading.
ardee wrote:That team had a completely new coach, got 12 more games of Tiny Archibald, had Maxwell improve considerably, and more importantly lost Marvin "Bad News" Barnes and Pete Maravich, two guys who were locker room and on court liabilities respectively.

Tiny played better, Cowens played worse. I'd call that an even trade. Maxwell actually posted bigger numbers the year before. Maybe you thought he looked better next to Bird, but that's true of most players next to Bird. For all your criticism of Bad News Barns, the team was 15-23 in games he played (better than their overall win pace). Pistol Pete only arrived in 1980, so you're flat out wrong there, and I don't see any evidence of a bad run because of his supposedly poisonous locker room attitude (not that he had a great attitude, but a lot of guys have bad attitudes when you're losing. When you're winning the smiles come easy). They'd also lost key contributors like Jo Jo White. The rest of the pluses and minuses mostly evens out.

As for coaching, the saying at the time was Bird coached the Celtics, which is why fans can remember the coaches of the Lakers, Bulls, Spurs, Rockets and even Pistons title teams of yore, but nobody ever seems to remember the Celtics coaches correctly (because they didn't really matter much, Bird had 3 coaches during his prime). It's easy to bash Cowens, but his coaching record with the Celtics in 79 is superior both to Sanders time as coach, and to the Celtics record in 1978 (which included Heinsohn coaching for a while, I assume you don't think he was a bad coach). The team was just bad, it had nothing to do with the coaching being good/bad.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#255 » by ronnymac2 » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:02 am

acrossthecourt wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

Not sure how much time I'll have, so I'll place my vote now.

I'm voting for Hakeem because I believe he gives me the best chance to win more titles than any other player. His years from 1986-1990 to me show he was a legitimate championship piece on his teams. His 1990 season in my opinion is the greatest defensive season in NBA history not including Bill Russell, and he still gives you strong offense (more valuable offense if he were on a better offensive teams). I am convinced these years are the prime — not peak, but prime — years of a GOAT candidate. 1996 and 1997 are on par with 1986-1990. 1991-1992 are only slightly below that. And 1993-1995 are GOAT level peak years.

LeBron James from 2008-2014 gives me 7 years on par with Olajuwon's best (1989-1990, 1993-1997), MAYBE even better, but Hakeem gives me extra value in his other 5 years that LBJ's 2005-2007 can't overcome. I do believe LeBron James will end up surpassing Hakeem and Shaq within the next 2-3 seasons and perhaps even Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at some point thereafter. Right now, I can't put him the King over the Dream.

I have read some tremendous arguments for LeBron though. I actually thought about voting for James over O'Neal in the last thread and Olajuwon here.

See, where I differ is that I don't think Hakeem's seven best years are on par with him at all. Like 1997. I just never see anyone regard that season highly, while LeBron has some of the best ever. There's no metric saying Olajuwon was an MVP-level player in 1997, even RAPM, and watching him and looking back at contemporary accounts I think that's true.

I think that people are overrating him a little because they assume elite defender + fancy post player, hence you get the best defense with one of the best offensive players ever. And that's not true. We've seen other post guys like Duncan put up disappointing impact offensive numbers. The post is overrated, even in the 90's, The exception is Shaq, but he destroyed other teams, warped the court, and was more efficient. I think he was a much better passer too. I don't think Olajuwon is an "elite" offensive anchor/focal point based on what I've seen the stats available. He doesn't pass like Shaq, and certainly doesn't help his teammates like Magic/LeBron/Bird, and his efficiency is nothing spectacular. He wasn't a pure post up guy. There were a lot of face-up plays and midrange jumpers. After LeBron/Bird/Magic, all of whom clearly "owned" the league for a while, he's probably up next though. I'll have to think about him versus Garnett.


1997 is weird for Dream because the Barkley addition took an adjustment period by both players. The core of the 1995 team at that point was gone, too, though Mario Elie had a career year. When the playoffs rolled around, I thought Dream was playing like a superstar again (Dominated against Seattle's 6th ranked defense and Utah's 9th-ranked defense). They barely lost to one of the greatest teams to never win a title in the 1997 Jazz, and Olajuwon played REALLY well against them (27/9/4/3/2 and 64 percent True Shooting). Actually can be argued he did better against Utah than Shaq did one round earlier.

Most of Hakeem's "impact" in 1989 and 1990 is on the defensive end. He's GOAT-level there not including Bill Russell. Even if his offensive impact is "disappointing" relative to his box score stats, he's still a very good offensive player (especially considering the offensive team he's on isn't that great), and when you combine offense and defense, he looks dominant.

Also, I've never thought of Duncan or KG as being disappointing offensively, and I've never thought of Dream that way either.

If you think LeBron's peak and prime are better, and you value peak more than anything, I've got no problem with any of that. James is a truly special player. Might be the best I've ever watched play in real time.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#256 » by acrossthecourt » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:11 am

ronnymac2 wrote:
acrossthecourt wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

Not sure how much time I'll have, so I'll place my vote now.

I'm voting for Hakeem because I believe he gives me the best chance to win more titles than any other player. His years from 1986-1990 to me show he was a legitimate championship piece on his teams. His 1990 season in my opinion is the greatest defensive season in NBA history not including Bill Russell, and he still gives you strong offense (more valuable offense if he were on a better offensive teams). I am convinced these years are the prime — not peak, but prime — years of a GOAT candidate. 1996 and 1997 are on par with 1986-1990. 1991-1992 are only slightly below that. And 1993-1995 are GOAT level peak years.

LeBron James from 2008-2014 gives me 7 years on par with Olajuwon's best (1989-1990, 1993-1997), MAYBE even better, but Hakeem gives me extra value in his other 5 years that LBJ's 2005-2007 can't overcome. I do believe LeBron James will end up surpassing Hakeem and Shaq within the next 2-3 seasons and perhaps even Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at some point thereafter. Right now, I can't put him the King over the Dream.

I have read some tremendous arguments for LeBron though. I actually thought about voting for James over O'Neal in the last thread and Olajuwon here.

See, where I differ is that I don't think Hakeem's seven best years are on par with him at all. Like 1997. I just never see anyone regard that season highly, while LeBron has some of the best ever. There's no metric saying Olajuwon was an MVP-level player in 1997, even RAPM, and watching him and looking back at contemporary accounts I think that's true.

I think that people are overrating him a little because they assume elite defender + fancy post player, hence you get the best defense with one of the best offensive players ever. And that's not true. We've seen other post guys like Duncan put up disappointing impact offensive numbers. The post is overrated, even in the 90's, The exception is Shaq, but he destroyed other teams, warped the court, and was more efficient. I think he was a much better passer too. I don't think Olajuwon is an "elite" offensive anchor/focal point based on what I've seen the stats available. He doesn't pass like Shaq, and certainly doesn't help his teammates like Magic/LeBron/Bird, and his efficiency is nothing spectacular. He wasn't a pure post up guy. There were a lot of face-up plays and midrange jumpers. After LeBron/Bird/Magic, all of whom clearly "owned" the league for a while, he's probably up next though. I'll have to think about him versus Garnett.


1997 is weird for Dream because the Barkley addition took an adjustment period by both players. The core of the 1995 team at that point was gone, too, though Mario Elie had a career year. When the playoffs rolled around, I thought Dream was playing like a superstar again (Dominated against Seattle's 6th ranked defense and Utah's 9th-ranked defense). They barely lost to one of the greatest teams to never win a title in the 1997 Jazz, and Olajuwon played REALLY well against them (27/9/4/3/2 and 64 percent True Shooting). Actually can be argued he did better against Utah than Shaq did one round earlier.

Most of Hakeem's "impact" in 1989 and 1990 is on the defensive end. He's GOAT-level there not including Bill Russell. Even if his offensive impact is "disappointing" relative to his box score stats, he's still a very good offensive player (especially considering the offensive team he's on isn't that great), and when you combine offense and defense, he looks dominant.

Also, I've never thought of Duncan or KG as being disappointing offensively, and I've never thought of Dream that way either.

If you think LeBron's peak and prime are better, and you value peak more than anything, I've got no problem with any of that. James is a truly special player. Might be the best I've ever watched play in real time.

It's nice to have a civil post. (Just to be clear, that's a compliment.)

Yes it's really just about peak versus longevity. I'm going to try to keep that consistent. It's why I'll go with Magic/Bird over most of the other candidates.

It's disappointing in terms of where people see them as scorers and how their teams do with them on offense compared to wing scorers. But Olajuwon's defensive RAPM numbers in the late 90's are pretty awesome.

Olajuwon's defense is what's really interesting me now. Gaudy block/steal numbers don't necessarily mean someone is a great defender, and most of the footage I've seen is from the more mature Olajuwon. I'm not exactly sure what to make of him pre-'93. I'm trying to find more footage and information. (Obviously, there's a lot of evidence he's great because those Houston teams did well on defense without much help.)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#257 » by andrewww » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:34 am

Current vote count approximately 1 day in:

Magic (9)
JordansBulls
Andrewww
GC Pantalones
Baller2014
Basketballefan
Ardee
TrueLAfan
An Unbiased Fan
Clyde Frazier

LeBron (7)
Penbeast0
SactoKingsFan
Rico381
Trex_8063
DannyNoonan1221
Dquinn1575
Acrossthecourt

Hakeem (2)
Gregoire
Ronnymac2

Elgible voters who haven't voted yet and have posted in this thread thus far (players they are leaning towards)
Mutnt (LeBron)
Colts18
MacGill (LeBron but without explanation)
Therealbig3 (Hakeem/KG)
O_6 (LeBron/Hakeem)
Owly (LeBron)
Magicmer1 (LeBron/Magic)
Kayess
Notanoob
Batmana (Magic/LeBron)
Jaivl
Texas Chuck
Warspite
Quotatious
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#258 » by colts18 » Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:52 am

I'm happy that Shaq got voted in the last thread. Well deserved. The more I researched into him the more I thought that he was possibly the #2 player all-time behind MJ.

Going in I was definitely going to vote in Magic here. Just a few months ago I had him at #3 all-time. Now I'm not sure if I can vote him in here against LeBron/Hakeem. I'm surprised how much I'm leaning towards Lebron in this spot due to all the good arguments presented for him. Going in I thought I had him around #8-10. I'll wait a little to see more cases before I commit to a player in this slot.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#259 » by Notanoob » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:31 am

I'll throw my vote in for LeBron James. I haven't seen convincing evidence that anyone was better than him. LeBron can fill every roll you could have on your team. When he's flipped his 'defense' switch to 'on', he can guard every position for at least limited stretches, and 2-4 for full games. He spaces the floor with a solid jumper, he finishes better than almost anyone around the rim, his post-up game is impeccable, he doesn't make mistakes, he passes and handles the ball better than most point guards, he's a dynamite slasher with his speed and strength...he really can do it all for your team.

Just look at what he did last year, when he wasn't coasting in the regular season:
26.8PPG, 60.2% from 2, 40.6% from 3 (and 48.8% from the corners) for a 64TS%, 8rpg, 7.3apg to just 3topg, 31.6PER, USG and AST% over 30, .322WS/48.

Let it sink in just how productive LeBron was in every facet of the game. It's really incredible to watch it happen.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#260 » by Jim Naismith » Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:54 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:Vote for #7 - Magic
I'm not a huge fan of the term "portability" being thrown around these days (it gives me this negative feeling as it seems to go hand in hand with people who over-emphasize "the right way to play"). That said, I think ronnymac2's post really exemplifies how magic was able to change his game several times throughout his career and still remain a consistent force production-wise as well as leading his team to success.


I think LeBron can turn non-contenders into contenders, perhaps as well as any player, because of his Swiss-Army-knife abilities.

However, I don't think LeBron's effect on contenders is as good. Both Wade and Bosh's numbers went down noticeably during the Miami Big 3 era. Moreover, he didn't help turn any of his other Miami teammates into all-stars.

In contrast, Magic help turn James Worthy into an all-star and Hall-of-Famer. And likewise, Bird's presence contributed to both Parish and McHale becoming HOFers.

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