Post#74 » by Severn Hoos » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:21 pm
OK, I'll put a marker down at 47 wins, but it's still a long way to opening night.
I give the Raptors credit for overachieving last year, but I don't expect them to replicate that success, particularly the good health that helped them to maintain consistency. And they had a winning record against the West - I'd be surprised if they pulled that off again. I see them coming back a bit.
Similar thought for me on Charlotte, they also overachieved. And they're pretty dependent on Al Jefferson - if he goes down for any length of time, they could be in trouble. Smart team, won't beat themselves, [what's that? they added Lance? Scratch that last sentence...]
Indy is a bit of a wildcard. Although I make fun of Lance, losing him could be a big blow to them. Their backcourt is pretty weak, their PF is 47 years old, and their Center is in counseling. (OK, that's not fair either.) But, they have a true superstar, and in the NBA that can be good enough to carry a team fairly far.
Bulls will be very good, although the hobbled Rose (I don't expect him to ever get really close to where he was) will keep them from being true "contenders", although I could definitely see them winning 50 games in the regular season.
Miami should be in that mid to upper 40s wins.
If the wiz put it all together and enjoy good health, they absolutely should play at a 50-win level. But, they're the wiz, so....
I'll go with 47 wins for now. I think they edge the Heat for the Division title (A Banner! A real one! We can hang it next to the Mystics' Attendance Championships!) and end up 3rd seed somewhat by default. I could envision the top 3 records being from the Central Division, with Cleveland & Chicago taking the top 2 seeds, then Wiz & Raptors in 3/4, with Indy/Miami 5th & 6th.
But, again - a long way to go until Halloween. Where does Love land? Does Greg Monroe go somewhere else or stay with the Pistons? Any other trades go down or injuries? How does Rose look? Too many variables to lock in a prediction, other than to take the Eeyore approach and assume that my irrational exuberance will prove to be misguided, and we're probably looking at a 7 seed....
"A society that puts equality - in the sense of equality of outcome - ahead of freedom will end up with neither equality nor freedom. The use of force to achieve equality will destroy freedom" Milton Friedman, Free to Choose