rookies: best, sleeper, bust

[Nowitness]

Bust: Bust (Like Lintendre said, don't think he'll be a true bust, but I'm doubting he reaches his absolute ceiling/what people think he'll be at his peak)

Being named Bust probably doesn't help his chances.

Lol, my bad, meant to put Wiggins and just wrote the last thing I'd read.

[DoubleLintendre]

I saved the best for last. I think Gordon and Exum are going to megabust. Gordon will be a forever raw hustle athlete that can't seem to find an offensive/defensive identity, even though he'll be a good role playing rebounder. Exum, Mr. Lightning first step, says he's a PG, but isn't a gifted passer or playmaker. He doesn't really have a good shot either. So, he's a really frail 6'6 PG that can't do PG things, shoot, or finish at the rim through any contact.

That honestly sounds like the definition of a bust, "post-busting". I like the character of the guy and I like what he could become (Penny Hardaway 2).. but his ceiling's height isn't nearly as low as his floor's depth. I won't change my opinion of him until I see him develop in the direction of the hype. He has literally only ONE quality right now.. a great first step. Maybe 2. He has a great video game name.

These are pretty baseless comments. Finishing at the rim was one of his strengths pre-draft according to scouts.

And some of his passes in SL were special -- great timing and touch.

So the right base for for predicting Exum's talents is just from summer league? You must be joakim.

I saw plenty of tape on Exum predraft, and I did not see any notable PG abilities in there. I saw a tweenerish guard with a good step and good handle who could finish on smaller competition and take it to the hole quickly off the dribble.

One of Exum's weaknesses is that he's not very strong, it will be much harder for him to finish against bigger athletes than it has been for him playing in Australia.

[tranjSAIC]

Shocking so far that most people have picked their team's rookie to be the best/sleeper.

Not counting Bruno, in that case it's probably true.

I'm a Magic fan and I can get on the Gordon bust wagon, hopefully I'm wrong, but how often do tweeners work out?!

[j-ragg]

Shocking so far that most people have picked their team's rookie to be the best/sleeper.

Not counting Bruno, in that case it's probably true.

I'm a Magic fan and I can get on the Gordon bust wagon, hopefully I'm wrong, but how often do tweeners work out?!

I totally agree, I can see why people would think he might be a bust. I don't, but I'm not upset. He's in the same boat as Exum (even thought Exum gets way more love for some reason) as a high risk high reward player.

[tranjSAIC]

Shocking so far that most people have picked their team's rookie to be the best/sleeper.

Not counting Bruno, in that case it's probably true.

I'm a Magic fan and I can get on the Gordon bust wagon, hopefully I'm wrong, but how often do tweeners work out?!

I totally agree, I can see why people would think he might be a bust. I don't, but I'm not upset. He's in the same boat as Exum (even thought Exum gets way more love for some reason) as a high risk high reward player.

When I watch Exum, he just has that "look" kind of like Giannis last year. Sure he didn't put up the raw stats you want, but the way he did it, looks like he COULD develop one day to a star.

I don't see any of that in Gordon at all, IF he reaches his potential I could see a Super Duper ROLE PLAYER.

[andyo]

Long term:

Best: Wiggins
Bust: Gordon, Napier
Sleeper: Bruno

[The Bandit]

Best - Embiid seems the easy choice here, all dependent on health.

Sleeper - Mitch McGary should be productive and Kyle Anderson could well surprise a few people.

Bust - Gordon - although it seems nobody's expecting much out of him, so perhaps he'll actually exceed expectations. Lavine - just an athlete.

[tranjSAIC]

Best: Wiggins, I think his ceiling is so high, plus he will be the franchise player now. AND he has a PG who has elite passing skills.

Bust: Gordon, won't live up to the high draft spot. Embiid, only because he will always be injuried

Sleeper: Payton, he looks like a good floor general, if he could ever develop a legit J, watch out

[xdsx]

For this season:

Best - Nerlens Noel. Probably the most impressive player in Summer League this year.
Bust - Aaron Gordon. Gonna be tough to find a spot in today's NBA when you can't hit free throws.
Sleeper - Kostas Papanikolaou. A tall shooter with a quick release who has a chance to excel playing alongside Harden and Howard if they decide to use him more like Kyle Korver and less like Steve Novak.

[rudyrudy]

Best - Jabari, Emblid, Smart
Sleeper - Harris
Bust - Exum (i think this one so obvious)

[JB2]

Sleepers: Julius Randle, James Young, Rodney Hood, Z.Lavine, Nick Johnson, Jordan Clarkson, Early, GRIII

I'm a Laker fan so maybe there is a bit of over optimism with Julius, but I see a truly unique player. If you look strictly on paper (both indv. stats and team W/L), he probably had the best college season out of the other freshmen and I'd say has the safest floor. Worst case I see a solid starter. Best case, he can be devastating. He's going to have to learn to use his unique combo of skill, speed, size and power but if he does I see a really good player. First order of biz, develop a reliable jumper.

[Xsy]

I saved the best for last. I think Gordon and Exum are going to megabust. Gordon will be a forever raw hustle athlete that can't seem to find an offensive/defensive identity, even though he'll be a good role playing rebounder. Exum, Mr. Lightning first step, says he's a PG, but isn't a gifted passer or playmaker. He doesn't really have a good shot either. So, he's a really frail 6'6 PG that can't do PG things, shoot, or finish at the rim through any contact.

That honestly sounds like the definition of a bust, "post-busting". I like the character of the guy and I like what he could become (Penny Hardaway 2).. but his ceiling's height isn't nearly as low as his floor's depth. I won't change my opinion of him until I see him develop in the direction of the hype. He has literally only ONE quality right now.. a great first step. Maybe 2. He has a great video game name.

These are pretty baseless comments. Finishing at the rim was one of his strengths pre-draft according to scouts.

And some of his passes in SL were special -- great timing and touch.

So the right base for for predicting Exum's talents is just from summer league? You must be joakim.

I saw plenty of tape on Exum predraft, and I did not see any notable PG abilities in there. I saw a tweenerish guard with a good step and good handle who could finish on smaller competition and take it to the hole quickly off the dribble.

One of Exum's weaknesses is that he's not very strong, it will be much harder for him to finish against bigger athletes than it has been for him playing in Australia.

Your assessment on his passing and playmaking is wrong, period, but you are right about his strength and inexperience being real weaknesses.

But even with those weakness, the fact still remains-- he's barely 19 years old, has a good handle, great passing instinct, and is 6'6". He will get stronger, and he will become experienced. Like, these aren't even ifs. He will literally get stronger as he gets older, and he will literally become experienced.

The jumpshot still has me worried. My optimism in this area is that his pre-draft footage showed us a very flat, ugly shot. Summer league, while he was still missing a lot, showed us a much improved arc and form. So hopefully that'll progress nicely as he gets older.

I really don't expect him to make real noise for a while, but I hardly expect him to bust, either. Unless he really injures himself, he has too many physical gifts to fail completely for a fifth pick.

[MrTwister]

Best:Wiggins,Parker,Noel
Sleeper:Bruno,Nurkic(if he gets minutes),Payton
Bust:Gordon,Napier,Smart,Ennis

[YouMustBeJoakim]

So the right base for for predicting Exum's talents is just from summer league? You must be joakim.

I saw plenty of tape on Exum predraft, and I did not see any notable PG abilities in there. I saw a tweenerish guard with a good step and good handle who could finish on smaller competition and take it to the hole quickly off the dribble.

One of Exum's weaknesses is that he's not very strong, it will be much harder for him to finish against bigger athletes than it has been for him playing in Australia.

I'm sure you were waiting for someone to mention Summer league. We can't assess skill-sets in games where he finally played against NBA talent? Let's just throw away McDermott's SL then.

But you said he wasn't a playmaker, even though this was his #1 asset as a prospect. His driving and dishing (along with his defense) is why he was considered the top PG prospect this year, over Lavine, Smart, and Payton.

[WiggOuts]

Napier isn't on the Heat?

Im obviously talking about Lebron. Kind of funny how he went out of his way to compliment Napier to the point of MIA trading to draft him. a parting gift maybe?

I guess I didn't understand your "ship has sailed" comment. The fact that LeBron lobbied for Napier and then left, will make Miami look even more foolish if (when?) Napier proves to be a huge bust. That guy had no business being drafted anywhere near the first round. Not that I'm rooting against the guy. I loved his heart and balls in college. But I don't see anything resembling an NBA player there at all.

I agree completely...I found it hilarious that they traded up. He does have heart but that can only get you so far...physically, its gonna be a tough road for him

[DoubleLintendre]

Your assessment on his passing and playmaking is wrong, period, but you are right about his strength and inexperience being real weaknesses.

But even with those weakness, the fact still remains-- he's barely 19 years old, has a good handle, great passing instinct, and is 6'6". He will get stronger, and he will become experienced. Like, these aren't even ifs. He will literally get stronger as he gets older, and he will literally become experienced.

The jumpshot still has me worried. My optimism in this area is that his pre-draft footage showed us a very flat, ugly shot. Summer league, while he was still missing a lot, showed us a much improved arc and form. So hopefully that'll progress nicely as he gets older.

I really don't expect him to make real noise for a while, but I hardly expect him to bust, either. Unless he really injures himself, he has too many physical gifts to fail completely for a fifth pick.

I was answering a "look at Summer League only" argument with "look at the draft reports only" argument. Looking at them separately will make any prediction look skewed. I wasn't implying I think Exum has no PG skills..

Exum's pre-draft footage and scouting reports really indicated to me that he's is a more of a slashing combo guard than anything. Many reports looked at Exum, before he announced he was definitely a PG, as a SG/PG with above average ball handling and decent passing abilities. His passing and playmaking game is definitely above average for a guard. However that's way different than saying he's primed to make the move to a full time PG.

I said in my first post I didn't see him as a "gifted" passer/playmaker. But gifted =/= capable. I see Dante working as a combo guard type player, rather than a playmaking/offense running PG.

Dante's SL play isn't something to gloss over, but I still have my doubts because again-- playing PG exclusively when you've been kind of a generalist guard is anything but a cakewalk. I think the odds are stacked against him because the learning curve in the NBA for PGs is sharper than for big men. You don't get as many opportunities to mess up. You're the coach on the floor. When the PG makes mistakes it's different than when a Center finds himself in foul trouble or rotating sloppily.

I'm sure you were waiting for someone to mention Summer league. We can't assess skill-sets in games where he finally played against NBA talent? Let's just throw away McDermott's SL then.

But you said he wasn't a playmaker, even though this was his #1 asset as a prospect. His driving and dishing (along with his defense) is why he was considered the top PG prospect this year, over Lavine, Smart, and Payton.

The difference between McDermott's showing in the SL and Dante's, is that you can find tapes and tapes of McD doing the exact same thing throughout his college career. He sinks the same shots and makes the same "coach's son" plays that he's been known to make.

With Dante, he's trying to define his position and focus on an aspects of his game that havn't been refined. I don't mean to take away from his ability to drive and dish-- as this has become the hallmark of this generation's scoring PGs. If anything Dante has some very unique traits, with his quickness, high IQ, and intangibles.

If Exum had said he's a slash and pass combo guard, over saying he's a PG I'd be less inclined to feel he's going to bust. Learning to be a PG is probably the hardest thing you can do as a developing player. I disagree that his best asset is his playmaking, I think his best assets are his quickness, handle, and scoring instincts.

As soon as he defined himself as a PG, and was drafted as a PG, I think he's pigeonholed himself into somewhat of a make or break situation.

[oldschooled]

Best: Bruno
Sleeper: Bruno

Best: Bruno
Sleeper: Bruno
Bust: Bruno

fixed it for ya

[chuckdevlin]

Best: Bruno
Sleeper: Bruno

Best: Bruno
Sleeper: Bruno
Bust: Randle

fixed it for ya

[Eoghan]

Wow, lots of you have Vonleh in the bust column. I don't know if he'll be a bust but I fully expect him to have a snoozer of a rookie year. He is better than I thought he'd be though.

[Nuggets_Talk]

BEST - Parker, would have picked Embiid if he was healthy.

SLEEPER - Gordon (and not because I'm an Orlando fan).

Yes it is