Neutral 123 wrote:I wonder what the motivation really is? Its certainly not to weed out busts. Busts will always exist.
Busts will always exist. But the longer you can evaluate a player, the less likely you are to be wrong due to premature analysis. Terence Morris could have been a number one over-all pick, stayed at Maryland two more years, and became a second rounder who never established himself in the NBA. The difference between what he was projected to be, and what he became, was time.
The age limit does not bust-proof the draft, but it affords teams a lot more information in evaluating prospects. Which teams will always prefer. That said, I don't believe bust-proofing the draft is a significant motivation for age restrictions.
The significant motivation is commercial. The NCAA and all of its massive marketing power through ESPN, CBS, the March Madness provides years of the absolute best marketing the NBA can get, without the NBA paying a dime for it. LeBron was a rare exception who transcended everything, so lets ignore him as an outlier.
But how many jerseys would KG have sold had he gone to Michigan for a season? No one outside of close followers of the NBA had any idea who Dwight Howard was before he went #1 over-all, and it took years for him to become a household name in Orlando. Had he gone to play for Donovan at Florida, or UGA, ESPN and CBS would have blown up his name recognition. Emeka Okafor was a household name. But Dwight who? Look at how hyped the Durant/Oden draft was. The attention to the lottery show, the draft itself, the national debate over who to draft . . . . none of that happens if they go straight from HS. It works another way as well: NCAA fans who become attached to a particular player are more likely to follow that player in the NBA. So it widens the potential fan base that way as well.
NCAA basketball is a marketing dream come true for the NBA. Massive pre-NBA exposure for rookies, building hype and excitement from fans, without spending one solitary penny to achieve it. And the longer they stay, the more the hype. That's why the NBA has an age restriction.
Enough of the crap already is what I say.
I agree. I am 100% philosophically opposed to age limits. I hate the rule.