A New Position: The Versatile Forward (VF)The NBA game is changing, and then so should the type of players made to thrive in it. Modern NBA offenses need to emphasize floor spacing, but a team can’t field five J.J. Redicks simply because they can shoot. NBA teams also need size and strength. Thus, a new position, the Versatile Forward (VF), was born. Forwards must have the size to defend bigger opponents and to rebound. In the modern game, the best forwards, the VFs, will also be able to step out to the perimeter, shoot the 3, and in the ideal scenario, attack off the dribble.
This season, the Hawks have risen to the top of the East with a VF in Paul Millsap. The Warriors lead the NBA with a VF in Draymond Green. Last season, VFs LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard met in the Finals. Across the league, teams are finding success with forwards that possess a truly versatile skill set.
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Inside-Outside VersatilityIn the modern NBA game, the forward with the versatility to shoot from the perimeter, handle the ball on drives and post up is king.
This season, Harris shot 36.4% from three. Let’s break that down a bit further. He shot:
38.0% on catch and shoot threes.
39.4% on threes taken with 4 or more seconds on the shot clock.
37.9% on open 3s (when no defender was within 4 feet).
The following shows how these shooting percentages compare to the 2014-15 league averages.
There are forwards that can score, rebound and shoot. As we have seen, the list isn’t long and contains some of the league’s most sought after talent (such as Durant and Love). Not all of these forwards’ versatility extends to ball handling on the perimeter.
The pick and roll is a staple of the modern NBA offense. Big men with limited shooting or ball handling skills are relegated to rolling, but occasionally, a forward comes along that is also efficient handling the ball off of screens, opening up the possibility for the offense to create defensive mismatches.
Harris had 150 possessions as the ball handler, and he was actually Orlando’s most efficient player in those situations. The table below shows the pick and roll ball handler statistics for the Magic this season (as recorded by Synergy).
Harris averaged 0.85 points per possession. That’s considerably better than the league average of 0.79. For comparison, Harris’s 0.85 points per possession was better than that of Eric Bledsoe, Rudy Gay, Monta Ellis, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Dwyane Wade.
Orlando tended to run their on-the-ball screens for Oladipo and Payton. Payton, in particular, was far less efficient than Harris. This presents one of many examples where Orlando underutilized Harris.
The data shows that Harris is an efficient ball handler on the perimeter and possesses excellent shooting range. Does his offensive versatility extend to the post?
According to Synergy, Harris had 106 post up possessions and averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP). He was the most efficient post up player in the NBA (among players with at least 100 post up possessions).
Check out how Harris’s post efficiency compared with some of the game’s elite post players.
The Best Defense is No Shot at AllIt’s foolish to judge an NFL cornerback only by his pass deflections and interceptions. The best cornerbacks rarely leave their man open enough for the pass attempt, and even when they do, the smarter quarterbacks often choose to challenge another defender. It’s hard for a cornerback to get an interception when the quarterback is afraid to challenge him.
The NBA is similar. Offenses can typically avoid any one defender, especially if that defender isn’t charged with guarding the rim. When a team does not like the defensive matchup on their first offensive option, a simple screen can switch the defenders.
When judging NBA defenders, it’s important to look beyond opponent shooting percentages. Giving up the shot (especially at the rim) is already a partial failure. Offenses will try to avoid the best defenders. Even when challenged, the best defenders force passes or turnovers before shots. The best defense in the NBA is no shot at all.
Synergy tracks defensive possessions in the NBA. They track when the defender faces isolations, pick and rolls, post-ups, hand-offs, and off-the-ball screens. We will refer to the collection of these defensive possessions as Defensive Possessions Against (DPA). Together, these constitute all of the defensive possessions (that Synergy tracks) where the defender is in a position to defend his man with all of his defensive options available. It excludes transition plays, put-backs after offensive rebounds, and kick outs after the shooters’ defenders dropped to help.
The chart below displays the DPA, points allowed on DPA, and FGM on DPA per 48 minutes played for six Orlando Magic. These are the six Magic that played at least 1000 minutes in 2014-15.
Tobias had the fewest DPA, the fewest points allowed and the fewest FGM against. All of the data suggests that Tobias is either proficient at preventing shots when opponents attack him or opponents are not choosing to attack Tobias as often as his teammates. In either case, the data supports that Tobias is a capable defender.
On the DPA, opponents shot 38% against Tobias. That number is respectable. For comparison, Oladipo and Payton both allowed opponents to shoot 44%. When we factor in the low rate at which Tobias allows shots, we see his overall defensive performance is quite impressive. Tobias allowed 2.51 FGM per 48 minutes played. Harris played 34.8 minutes per game. So, he allowed 1.82 FGM on DPA per game. Even if Harris had held opponents to a ridiculously low 28% shooting on DPA, it would have only reduced is FGA against by .5 FGM per game (or 1 FG every 2 games).
Final ThoughtsThe numbers suggest that Tobias Harris is one of the better VFs in the NBA today. Statistically, he stands among some of the game’s biggest stars. He is only 22 years old and has been praised for his character and work ethic. Harris is certain to improve on his already first-class ability. Tobias Harris is the most underrated player in the NBA, but it won’t be long before he gets the credit he deserves.
