The Tobias Harris Situation

[Nyce_1]

Rob was on the radio today (ESPN 580; replay is out there somewhere) and he said his usual no scenario where Tobias isn't coming back. Sounded different this time; sounded like it was true. Hopefully we negotiate with him and not allow him to get to those offer sheets and just negotiate in good faith for something starting at $12m like Vuc.

[Skin]

Now you've really got me curious. Who are SF's 1-20 in your opinion?

I'll throw out a list of how I see the SF's next year. this is rough and I'm not sure about how some of them will bounce back from injuries etc:

Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Gordon Hayward
Luol Deng
Carmelo Anthony
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Chandler Parsons
Tony Allen
Trevor Ariza
Danilo Gallinari
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nicolas Batum
Matt Barnes
Mike Dunleavy
Robert Covington
Al-Farouq Aminu
Joe Johnson
Thaddeus Young
DeMarre Carroll
Andrew Wiggins
Harrison Barnes
Paul Pierce
Rudy Gay
Jabari Parker
PJ Tucker
Tobias Harris
Terrence Ross
Marco Belinelli
Jeff Green

There are 5 guys I'd rather have than Tobe. LBJ, Durant, Kawhi, George, and Wiggins. ...and from that only 1 makes under $15M.

Your list proved to me even more that we need to keep him cause I'm not satisfied with those others.

How many on that list are VFs? Versatile Forwards? The elite VFs must be able to score and rebound. They must also be able to shoot 3s. This season, only six players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds per game, while also shooting 35% (on at least two 3-point attempts per game). Only six VFs met these minimum requirements. They were Love, Millsap, Bosh, Durant, LeBron, and... Tobias.

According to Synergy, Harris had 106 post up possessions and averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP). He was the most efficient post up player in the NBA (among players with at least 100 post up possessions).

Check out how Harris’s post efficiency compared with some of the game’s elite post players.



Read more if you're interested.
http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

[fendilim]

Hilarious how most guys want him gone.

[Edual]

Kevin Durant
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Paul George
Tobias Harris
Gordon Hayward

My top 7, maybe not in order of best to worse, but in order of who id rather have right now

[floppymoose]

I had already seen the analytics article on Tobes. I was wondering how long it would be before it came up after I said he was a not a good defender.

The synergy stats are tricky to use. For instance, another way in which you could end up giving up fewer points from your man is if your coach always hides you on defense. I'm not saying that's what is happening here, it's just illustrating how tricky it is to use synergy information.

I strongly prefer on/off analysis that looks at how you affect team defense in the whole. And by that standard Harris doesn't fare very well at all.

[mojosodope]

I had already seen the analytics article on Tobes. I was wondering how long it would be before it came up after I said he was a not a good defender.

The synergy stats are tricky to use. For instance, another way in which you could end up giving up fewer points from your man is if your coach always hides you on defense. I'm not saying that's what is happening here, it's just illustrating how tricky it is to use synergy information.

I strongly prefer on/off analysis that looks at how you affect team defense in the whole. And by that standard Harris doesn't fare very well at all.

I'm not opposed to on/off analysis, but I do not believe it holds as much relevance to a ranking team, let alone a team that substituted and played the way we played the past 3 seasons.


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[NavalAviator94]

He will come back at any price. He's 22, will get better and he can play the 3 or 4(versatility.). With the cap going up, every team will have money next year. Those that have money this year will spend it. If he decided to wait a year his value would go up further next year. No way they don't match any offer.


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[eyriq]

This versatile forward bit is too much. So a tweener that doesn't play defense or have a passing game but can rebound ok and hit the three (contract year spike anyone?) is now "versatile".... It's a rebranding attempt. He's a tweener with a 16.5 per and a DRPM that would embarrass d-leaguers. He's not even in the same universe as Bosh, Lebron, Durant, Millsap, and Love! I cannot believe that article has gotten so much play and that Tobias was silly enough to base an infographic off it.....

Edit: if he gets a max contract he and his agency need to get into politics after his NBA career cause this will have been some impressive campaigning.

[tiderulz]

I had already seen the analytics article on Tobes. I was wondering how long it would be before it came up after I said he was a not a good defender.

The synergy stats are tricky to use. For instance, another way in which you could end up giving up fewer points from your man is if your coach always hides you on defense. I'm not saying that's what is happening here, it's just illustrating how tricky it is to use synergy information.

I strongly prefer on/off analysis that looks at how you affect team defense in the whole. And by that standard Harris doesn't fare very well at all.

when team defense as a whole is bad, individual players will look bad whether they are or not

[tiderulz]

This versatile forward bit is too much. So a tweener that doesn't play defense or have a passing game but can rebound ok and hit the three (contract year spike anyone?) is now "versatile".... It's a rebranding attempt. He's a tweener with a 16.5 per and a DRPM that would embarrass d-leaguers. He's not even in the same universe as Bosh, Lebron, Durant, Millsap, and Love! I cannot believe that article has gotten so much play and that Tobias was silly enough to base an infographic off it.....

Edit: if he gets a max contract he and his agency need to get into politics after his NBA career cause this will have been some impressive campaigning.

this old argument again. He does play defense and does it decently. I guess we have a center that doesnt play defense either, no teams usually win with that formula either.

I wont say Harris is "versatile", but he showed this year he can be a full time SF, and a very good one. dont know why people want to throw out the "tweener" label, unless they dont have other valid arguments

[mojosodope]

This versatile forward bit is too much. So a tweener that doesn't play defense or have a passing game but can rebound ok and hit the three (contract year spike anyone?) is now "versatile".... It's a rebranding attempt. He's a tweener with a 16.5 per and a DRPM that would embarrass d-leaguers. He's not even in the same universe as Bosh, Lebron, Durant, Millsap, and Love! I cannot believe that article has gotten so much play and that Tobias was silly enough to base an infographic off it.....

Edit: if he gets a max contract he and his agency need to get into politics after his NBA career cause this will have been some impressive campaigning.

It would be a contract year spike if he didn't take nearly double the amount of 3's he took the previously year. You keep clinging on to DRPM like we were remotely a good defensive team that played with effective lineups that won more than 25 games.

[doct3r dr3]

I had already seen the analytics article on Tobes. I was wondering how long it would be before it came up after I said he was a not a good defender.

The synergy stats are tricky to use. For instance, another way in which you could end up giving up fewer points from your man is if your coach always hides you on defense. I'm not saying that's what is happening here, it's just illustrating how tricky it is to use synergy information.

I strongly prefer on/off analysis that looks at how you affect team defense in the whole. And by that standard Harris doesn't fare very well at all.

There are other synergy stats that can help suss out how much "hiding" is going on, like this page.

The FG% column shows the normal FG% of the players that player X is defending, and then the other stats show the difference in those players' percentages when player X now guards them. We see that Tobias is right around the middle of the team in "FG%", which makes sense for a SF. His assignments are guys who normally shoot about the same percantage as our other SFs' assignments (Aaron Gordon, Maurice Harkless, Devyn Marble).

[floppymoose]

As I said before, the hiding was just an example. Even if it is true that Harris is good at suppressing shots (which is a valuable skill), it doesn't answer the question "is he a good defender?". The only way to answer that is to see what impact does he have on the team's overall defense. Because that's what ultimately matters. If your guy never scores, but your team does worse with you on the floor anyway, then it's a Pyrrhic victory.

[tiderulz]

As I said before, the hiding was just an example. Even if it is true that Harris is good at suppressing shots (which is a valuable skill), it doesn't answer the question "is he a good defender?". The only way to answer that is to see what impact does he have on the team's overall defense. Because that's what ultimately matters. If your guy never scores, but your team does worse with you on the floor anyway, then it's a Pyrrhic victory.

not having horrible post defense is more important than Harris defense, and our post defense was abysmal. our team lost when Harris was on the floor and when he wasnt. But i believe we had a better winning % with him than without him.

[DontPushMe]

Now you've really got me curious. Who are SF's 1-20 in your opinion?

I'll throw out a list of how I see the SF's next year. this is rough and I'm not sure about how some of them will bounce back from injuries etc:

Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Gordon Hayward
Luol Deng
Carmelo Anthony
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Chandler Parsons
Tony Allen
Trevor Ariza
Danilo Gallinari
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nicolas Batum
Matt Barnes
Mike Dunleavy
Robert Covington
Al-Farouq Aminu
Joe Johnson
Thaddeus Young
DeMarre Carroll
Andrew Wiggins
Harrison Barnes
Paul Pierce
Rudy Gay
Jabari Parker
PJ Tucker
Tobias Harris
Terrence Ross
Marco Belinelli
Jeff Green

There are 5 guys I'd rather have than Tobe. LBJ, Durant, Kawhi, George, and Wiggins. ...and from that only 1 makes under $15M.

Your list proved to me even more that we need to keep him cause I'm not satisfied with those others.

How many on that list are VFs? Versatile Forwards? The elite VFs must be able to score and rebound. They must also be able to shoot 3s. This season, only six players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds per game, while also shooting 35% (on at least two 3-point attempts per game). Only six VFs met these minimum requirements. They were Love, Millsap, Bosh, Durant, LeBron, and... Tobias.

According to Synergy, Harris had 106 post up possessions and averaged 1.04 points per possession (PPP). He was the most efficient post up player in the NBA (among players with at least 100 post up possessions).

Check out how Harris’s post efficiency compared with some of the game’s elite post players.



Read more if you're interested.
http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/05/06/the-nbas-most-underrated-player/

Tobias that low on his list has to be a joke.

He's not a max player IMO but he's much higher than where you have him.

Aminu? Covington? Tucker? You're having a laugh..

Those who want him gone, who would we honestly replace him with? We can't attract a max player.

[floppymoose]

I had already seen the analytics article on Tobes. I was wondering how long it would be before it came up after I said he was a not a good defender.

The synergy stats are tricky to use. For instance, another way in which you could end up giving up fewer points from your man is if your coach always hides you on defense. I'm not saying that's what is happening here, it's just illustrating how tricky it is to use synergy information.

I strongly prefer on/off analysis that looks at how you affect team defense in the whole. And by that standard Harris doesn't fare very well at all.

when team defense as a whole is bad, individual players will look bad whether they are or not

The 6th best DRPM for SFs was posted by Aminu, who played for a poor defensive team. Thad Young was well above average and he split his season between the Wolves and the Nets, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. Lebron was 7th and while the Cavs defense was good at the end of the season, for the bulk of the year it was poor.

RPM, by it's nature, is looking at who you play with and against and adjusting for that. It can't do it perfectly. But it does it pretty well. Well enough that we can't blame Harris's poor showing on the rest of the team. DRPM is already ranking Vucevic as the 60th best center defensively. It's already giving him a ton of blame. And it still doesn't like Harris.

[MagicFan32]

oh god we are back on this RPM garbage?
the same stat people used to hype channing frye a year ago.

the whole magic team was terrible defensively last year, let's wait and see what the roster looks like, and how skiles system impacts things here. lettting tobes go for nothing is stupid, when his next contract under the new cap coming won't really be an issue, especially given teams have to meet a cap floor

[Edual]

seems as most players with high drpm are on good teams, I mean well I thought most considered andrew wiggins a good defender yet he is right next to harris on drpm on an equally bad team

[drsd]

Clearly Tobias is still young and could improve. The question is do you want to spend 15 million a year to find out?

The point publicly made by Harris' agent is that in two years, a 15M contract will not be very large.

..

[407Junkie]

Still not sure what to feel. I don't think Tobias sucks at all, but I don't think losing him would be the worst thing either. If he doesn't get max I think we should match, if it's to the point where its like "ehh.." then I'm okay with losing him.

This is pretty much how I feel. I just don't see Harris as a guy that has a big impact on w/l record. With or without him, I see us right around 35 wins.

there is no one on our roster right now that has an impact on our W/L yet.

So why pay one 15 mil a year to have no impact on winning?