Bumping the summary post from the other thread to make a point. FiveThirtyEight.com now has us at a 44-38 finish. Losing to the Spurs and Clippers were expected by their analytics. Previously their system (CARMELO) had us at 38-44. That's progress, right?
We are 29-24. To arrive at 44-38 we need to go 15-14.
I still think we can get 47, but we need to go 18-11, which sounds impossible until you look at the remaining games. Here they are (ranked in record of opponent):
Golden State (h)
San Antonio (a)
<<<<<====== We are here
Portland (a)
Sacramento (a)
Denver (h)
New Orleans (a)
Phoenix (h)
Lakers (a)
Cleveland (h)
Toronto (a)
Boston (a) (a)
Atlanta (a)
<<<<<===== We are here
Indiana (h)
Chicago (h) (a) (h)
Detroit (h) (a)
Charlotte (h)
Washington (h)
Orlando (h) (a)
New York (a)
Milwaukee (a)
Brooklyn (h)
Philadelphia (h) (a)
In the Western Conference we play 8 games more, 2 against impossible teams and 6 against teams we should beat. In the East, we have one game with Cleveland and Toronto, two away games with Boston, 5 home & 4 away games against the pack, and then 6 games against teams that are out of contention and will play as spoilers (including Milwaukee Away again).
Towards the end of the season some of these bottom-feeders will be tanking and we play a bunch of them (New York doesn't count because they don't have a pick).
Most of the hardest games are done. Here is what was predicted before in those rosy days before the first tip-off. Do you like your guess now?
gom wrote:Ranked in order:
Wade4life3: 61
Yungsin1: 57
shanedude: 55
JazKeyz: 55+ (used 55 for data analysis)
Bishop45: 54
IggieCC: 53
CanesHeatFins: 53
qjz123: 52
Rocky M5: 52
Zasterror: 51
quite shaqly: 51
Seabass777: 50
rio_grande: 50
dancing2thabeet: 50
KingDavid: 49
DWadeno3: 49
Slot Machine: 49
DefenseWins: 48
DaddyCool19: 48
Chalm Down: 47
caliban: 47
gom: 47
yoyoboy: (a lebron fan) 47
dolphinatik: 46
Fischella: (a Mavericks fan) 45
Pure_Basketball: 45
HIF: 44
eddieheatfan: 38-40 (39 used for data analysis)
YAHOO: 50 wins
538 (Nate Silver's CARMELO): 38
Arithmetic Mean: 49.7857
Geometric Mean: 49.5943
Mode: 47
Median: 49.5
Standard Deviation: 4.4419
Variance: 19.7302
Skew: 0.1888