Look, I get it. Brandon Knight cost a boatload to get. The Lakers are looking so bad this year that it looks like the pick will convey to Philly in 2018. And realistically, there aren’t many ways for the Lakers to turn into a playoff team in a year.
But really, most of you here will agree Ryan McDonough is a pretty good GM. It wasn’t long ago everyone in the NBA universe thought Tyson Chandler’s contract was going to be a sunk cost. Times change, things happen. Unfortunately for Brandon Knight… not many good things have happened since his trade here, and I’m trying to figure out why.
Take me back 2 years, we traded the Philly pick after moving on from IT and Goran. In part, I believe our fan base resents BK for who he was chosen over. Goran’s in the middle of a 10 game win streak on a depleted Heat (go Spo!) and IT is playing out of his mind in Boston… ranked number 6 on the MVP ladder right now. It hurts. It hurts a lot.
Back then, BK was touted as an injury replacement for the All-Star game. He was eventually snubbed by Adam Silver in favor of Kyle Korver who was amidst a wild shooting patch in Atlanta’s 60 win season. BK was having a good year in Milwaukee. It remains the only time he has posted a positive NetRtg (+2). The 4.5 win shares he posted in Milwaukee (52 games) puts him a touch behind the career year Eric Bledsoe is having (5.0 WS from the first 50 games).
He posted a respectable TS% of 55.6% before leaving for Phoenix, helped mightily by his 40.9% 3 point shooting . Keep in mind, he was doing this on a team that finished the season with the 26th best offense. It wasn’t easy work in Milwaukee. Did I mention he lead the team in PPG?
Dare I say, Brandon Knight was pretty good. McD was prepared to pay the high asking price. There was plenty of apprehension at the time of the trade… plenty on here too. It was justified. Many people had an asterisk next to BK’s name. The advanced stats may have said one thing, but the eye test certainly said another. Brandon Knight has always been a weird concoction of a player. A shooting guard with the body of a point guard. A fairly poor passer. High character and IQ off the court, yet a poor BBIQ. He’s one massive contradiction, compacted into a basketball player.
The 14-15 Suns were meddling among the bottom third of the Western Conference, but the hope was BK could push us towards the 8th seed. Instead he ended up playing 7 full games and 3 half games before rolling his ankle badly (it later resulted in surgery to clean some cartlidge out). Those 10 games were viewed by many as an acclimation period. The poor shooting (36% FG%, 31% from 3) wasn’t really a worry. The Suns knew those 10 games wouldn’t be a reflection of his time in Phoenix. Oh, how wrong they were.
I understand fantasy scores are a very crude and simple way of looking at production, but they at least give you a basic overview of performance in games. Here’s BK’s fantasy chart for his tenure in PHX to date, stats courtesy of Basketball Monster.
The good has always come with the bad with BK. That’s the type of player he is, streaky streaky you might say (you definitely wouldn’t say that, let’s be real). The start of the 2015 season looked rather promising. Why the starting lineup of Bled-BK-PJ-Kieff-Chandler managed to work for BK isn’t exactly clear. Perhaps the consistent 30+ minutes per game starting had something to do with it. Perhaps he feels more comfortable wearing #3. Who the heck knows? What we do know is BK managed to post a positive on-off for the 2015-16 season (+1.7 per 100 possessions).
The biggest change for BK has come in his shot selection. In every season up to this one, BK has been loitering in the high 30% range on the frequency of 3 point shots. This season he’s only jacking up a 3 on 25% of his shots. His PnR has improved as a result, he’s jumped from the 39th percentile last season to the 56th percentile (0.84 PPP). Progress?
Here’s the biggest problem though, he’s practically still running the same number of PnRs (42% in 15-16, 44% this season). He’s shooting less 3s but still taking the same types of shots across the board. Where have these shots gone? Well inside the arc of course. Some into the territory called no man’s land. He’s shooting 5.2% more 10-16 footers (the anti-Morey). HE SHOOTS 36% ON IT. THAT IS NOT GOOD. In fact, he is shooting 36% on all shots between 3 and 16 feet. These shots take up 49% of his offense. That is plain awful. And really, the solution is to stop him shooting those shots. Easier said than done.
BK’s 16’-17’ shot chart, courtesy of vorped.
That left top of the break 3 is his favorite one. He shot only 33% on it last season but has improved on that this time around. The dip in 3 point shooting has coming from the right top of the break and in the corners, albeit on limited attempts. The inside scoring has also fallen flat, but that probably has something to do with his increased aggression going to the basket.
Generally speaking, this new approach to the PnR has seen him be more effective, despite the uptick in the mid ranger. His FT rate has jumped from just 20.4% to 30.4%, an impressive and welcome uptick given he has always been a good foul shooter. Of course, even though he’s finishing worse at the rim, the fact that he’s taking more shots at the rim means he’s a more effective player (5.7% more of his possessions are finishing at the rim).
Some of you may be aware I’m president of BK Island. On this island all I have asked for is a primary playmaker next to BK. I’ve advocated for Ulis, I think he can be that guy. The bad news for BK Islanders is the initial numbers aren’t good at all. The Ulis-BK combo is posting a sterling -21.1 NetRtg in the 80 minutes played. I don’t know if that’s a true reflection of the combo, but yikes, even for a small sample size that is bad. It is possible Ulis (and the rest of the lineup) may be deferring to BK and not taking any initiative on offense. It’s also possible BK is completely useless off the ball.
I argue that the truth is somewhere in between. BK clearly believes (or believed) he was a starter coming into this season. Earl’s makeup talk was that BK would be the lead of the second unit. The playmaker, the initiator, the everything on the second unit. That’s part of his undoing at the moment.
Rather than trying to make plays around his 3 point shot, we’re giving him the ball and just saying “go for it”. We’re giving him 2.7% of his possessions as off screens. 2.7%. The only guys that shoot less off screens are non-shooters (and a couple of superstars who live with the ball in their hands). For reference, the best 3 point shooters come off screens at least 15% of the time. Korver, Klay and Redick all come off screens above 30% of the time.
And I guess we are converging towards the bigger issue with BK. Sure, he’s played badly. More importantly, he is also an absolutely terrible fit in an offense which prides itself on taking advantage of mismatches and doesn’t give a damn about the extra pass or assists in general. BK truly is one of those guys that is a great barometer for how good a team’s offensive system is. Unfortunately for him, he is yet to come across one.
He certainly isn’t a guy that you can plug and play within an offense. There are barely any of those guys left in the NBA (we may have traded one for the ‘16 Cavs pick). He can be used minimally in PnR sets. He seems to have figured out how to not be terrible on that front. He know how to shoot the 3. A competent offense could still make good of him. Heck, he’s even got the “I’m a real passing PG” mentality out of him. He’s only turned the ball over 7 times from bad passes this season, down from 92 bad pass TOs last season.
Dunc’d On’s most recent mock trade deadline podcast did ask the question: what is he worth? Dan Feldman said he’d only trade Knight if it were for an asset to save face. Possibly a late first or part of a bigger deal. I have no doubts there are at least a few buyers for BK, the issue being the price. The Nets wouldn’t blink to get a youngish playmaker if BK was traded for neutral value, particularly given how strapped they are. It only takes one GM to fall in love and give up an asset for him, and I’m sure many fans are hoping for that.
The reality of the matter is, fans need to be prepared for him to stay put. McD will firmly back himself and the players he brought in. The only reason he would go out of his way to trade BK is if the situation got dire, in a similar way to the Morrii situation. What we do know in this NBA is situations change overnight. What we forget is, despite all this fluidity, players need time. Some more than others. There are only 240 minutes to spend on a basketball court each night, and for many players, it’s impossible to give them the time they need to figure it out.
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