Sixerscan wrote:Slizeezyc wrote:Sixerscan wrote:
Here's another 2016 study on Jones fractures in NBA players headed by Martin O'Malley (the doctor that did both Embiid's 2nd surgery and Simmons' surgery). The average Return to Play time was 9.8 weeks. The longest was 12.5.
So this isn't just people playing arm chair doctor, it seems pretty clear that either there was some sort of reinjury, or they are handling this in an unprecedented way. It's already been a month and a half longer than the longest return to play, with no return in sight. This goes well beyond just being cautious...
McCollum, KD, Brook Lopez (think he had another surgery along with the Jones), Rasheed Wallace, Jodie Meeks all took more time than that average (I'm just naming some I know for sure, haven't tracked it league-wide). Obviously KD and Rasheed had the re-injury and McCollum was coming back from his second version of it. Rasheed never really came back after the re-injury and then KD took the whole rest of the year off and took 4-6 months before he geared up again. I think initially KD took about 10 weeks the first time.
I've seen some various numbers where about 5-8 percent of people have a re-injury of the fracture, but I think that generally means a second surgery. I'm pretty sure we would at least know if he had a second surgery. A "setback" would pretty much just be another surgery as it means the initial thing didn't take.
CJ got injured a week later than Simmons did and returned on January 8.
Jodie meeks did take longer, but he also suffered a setback a little under 3 months after the surgery.
My point isn't that he's coming back "after the average time." So far he's taken a month and a half longer than the longest return to play time from a study, done by the guy that did his surgery, with no return in sight.
I agree that it seems like a setback is less likely. But that just makes the way they are handling this more bizarre.
Yeah I got ya. I think I'd be more shocked if Noel didn't stay out way longer for an ACL, Joel didn't stay out way longer both times around for his foot etc. It's just the Sixers, and I also think with rookies it's just a whole different ballgame most of the time. They're learning a new life to go along with everything else and so ramp up time I do think involves non-health stuff. Like, the five practice thing I don't think is BS, for example. It's hard to integrate someone midseason (especially a rookie) and it's also hard to find five practice days to get them out there.