Walt_Uoob wrote:bwgood77 wrote:Walt_Uoob wrote:
I feel like it's a little different with these gifted defenders like JJ though. Someone already mentioned Jimmy Butler getting a zillion minutes as a rookie because his defense was so valuable to the team. If JJ is that level of defender then it will be tough for the coaching staff to keep him out of the starting lineup for long, especially considering the defensive weaknesses and inexperience in the rest of the lineup and the fact that TJ profiles so well as a sixth man scorer.
Butler averaged 8.5 mpg as a rookie, played in 42, and started none. He only started 20 games his second year. I would expect it to go something like that.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/butleji01.html
Haha oops! Thanks for the fact check. Should have looked that up myself.
Kawhi got 24mpg and 39 starts his first year, so maybe he's an optimistic rookie year comp for JJ.
We're also not a very good team and would be taking him with a top-4 pick, so there'd be some additional expectation to start him I would think. The Bulls and Spurs took Butler and Kawhi much later in the draft and were both 50-win teams their rookie year. Wiggins isn't a very similar player and doesn't support my "gifted defender" argument, but he started all 82 his rookie year and averaged 36 mpg.
So I dunno, maybe being a gifted defender as opposed to a scorer doesn't matter, but I'd still bet if we draft JJ his playing time is at least 20mpg and he's starting by mid-season.
Yeah, if he starts mid season like Kawhi did, and that is the optimistic comp, that's obviously extremely optimistic since we are talking about a DPOY and MVP candidate.
I kind of think TJ has gotten a raw deal here for many reasons, partially because after that crazy 48 win season in Len's rookie year, we were expecting the playoffs the following year, starting PJ, playing Marcus a lot, and he just didn't get much of an opportunity. And then last year, once again, playoffs goal, we are terrible, FINALLY he starts for 4 games, and then goes down for injury. This year, starts out on fire and easily our best player, has freak strange injury, is out of sorts, and is now back to form shooting extremely efficiently, grabbing boards, getting steals, etc. He also seems to be vastly under appreciated by fans. He has started a total of 57 games in 3 years, and mostly not because he didn't deserve to.
I do agree we definitely need a defensive wing, and I am very high on JJ, but I don't think that just means they will suddenly relegate TJ back to the bench or trade him. In time it makes sense to start a defensive wing next to Booker if Booker doesn't vastly improve his defense, but I hardly doubt they will start a rookie again next year. At least to start the year or if someone is injured.