VVVs guide to the Raps first first round series v2K17.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Here we go boys, you know how it goes. Im not big on imparting much narrative in these, so lets talk about it in subsequent posts, ill drop quick summaries though so you dont go cross eyed trying to make sense of it hah, just my 2c. Anything catch your eye?? Anything you find interesting?? Lets discuss it.

Heres the 15/16 PO guide.
Heres the 14/15 PO guide.
Heres the 13/14 PO guide.

So last few years I used Feb 1st a barometer to show how teams performed at the tail end of the year (I could have used any arbitrary date really).

This season the Raps were 6th ORTG (109.8), T8th DRTG (104.9), 4th NetRTG (+4.9).
This season the Bucks were 13th ORTG (106.9), T17th DRTG (106.4), 11th NetRTG (+0.5)

Since Feb 1st the Raps were 15th ORTG (106.9), DRTG 4th (103.4), NetRTG 8th (+3.8).
Since Feb 1st the Bucks were ORTG 14th (107.3), DRTG T14th (106.8), NetRTG 15th (+0.5).

So we go in the hotter team and the overall better team, as one would expect given seeding. Given we have played WAS/IND the last 2 POs, its nice we arent playing an elite defense, so this could bode well for our maligned backcourt (in the POs atleast).


Team Comps

Spoiler:

Four Factors
TOR.

MIL.


MISC
TOR.

MIL.






REB.



I think their inability to REB is going to be an issue, and a way we can really exploit JV. The fact that is likely one of the lowest volume PnR teams (28th in Freq% in PnR Ball), we should be able to stay big and not worry as much unless they go with a really small 3 shooting lineup. One thing thats interesting (probably only to me) is they like to PostUp and Cuts, so could be a team we struggle with in stretches, because of their unique style of play (finishes). They get alot of transition buckets, so we need to limit the amount of FBPs which we have done good all year. They also get alot of Points off TOVs (T3rd most with the Raps/SAS), so again fortunately our style of offense wont fuel that, but if we are careless with the ball, that will really prop up their offense.

Raps O vs Bucks D.

Spoiler:

Finishes
TOR

MIL


TOR

MIL



Playtypes
TOR

MIL


Players
TOR

MIL.







This is just a tough match up for MILs D. I feel like we so many ways to attack teams, that unless we miss alot of open Js, and/or TOV the ball/ref shenanigans (hah), we should be able to score very well against them. I think our role players and KLs ability to stretch the floor is my one question mark, and probably what MIL will give up. Until we consistently score from 3, they wont stop sagging inside on drives, and fronting/showing doubles on PostUps. Nonetheless, should be a big advantage for the Raps.

Defending the top 5 Sets, TOR O vs MIL D.

Spoiler:

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I think our PostUps offensively are going to have to rely on mismatches. I think were much better off attacking with PnR where we have a slight advantage, and to much maligned ISOs. I think if we can get creative switches, we should be able to attack off the bounce, and im not sure they have any intimidating rim protectors outside of the weak side help by Giannis. Off the bounce seems like the way to go, but again if our shooters make shots on swings/kicks/etc.. then it could be a short series.

Raps D vs Bucks O.

Spoiler:

Finishes
TOR

MIL


TOR

MIL


Playtypes
TOR

MIL


Players
TOR

MIL.






We have a pretty clear advantage defensively, they rely on PostUps which we defend well and SpotUps which we also defend well. They clearly need to get out and run so our ability to defend that is paramount, which means fewer sideline shots, less arguing calls, hustling back after misses, not turning over the ball, etc.. small things that could affect the Raps.

Defending the top 5 Sets, TOR D vs MIL O.

Spoiler:

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They dont assign defensive assignments to individual players Cuts, Heres the full team...


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Their SpotUp shooters could be trouble, we have to hard close and keep them off the 3PT line. Another area we traditionally get destroyed is the off ball Cuts, and unfortunately they are good at them, so you could foresee ways they can beat us without running the NBAs bread and butter PnR. I still think given that we match up fairly well with them

Benches.

Spoiler:

Now what about the benches?
The Raps bench on the season was 2nd ORTG (109.4), DRTG 6th (103.5), 3rd NetRTG (+5.9).
The Bucks bench on the season was 7th ORTG (107.2), DRTG 11th (105.1), 8th NetRTG (+2.1).

The Raps bench since Feb 1st, ORTG T11th (105.9), 4th DRTG (100.8), NetRTG 5th (+5.1).
The Bucks bench since Feb 1st, ORTG T8th (107.9), 7th DRTG (105.2), NetRTG 6th (+2.7).



Generally we have the better bench but the differential isnt as big as we usually get in the POs the last few yrs. I think given our depth, and their reliance on volume stats for the bench, you could probably make a case, either bench could sway a few games here and there.

Previous Games against eachother.

Spoiler:

So lets talk about how they fared in their matchups this year.
Game 1, Nov 25th/16, Raps 105 @ MIL 99


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Game 2, Dec 12th/16, MIL 100 @ TOR 122


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Game 3, Jan 27th/17, MIL 86 @ TOR 102


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Game 4, Mar 4th/17, TOR 94 @ MIL 101


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More MatchUp Stats.

Spoiler:

Four Factors (OPP = MIL).

MISC (OPP = MIL).


ADV Stats.
TOR.



MIL.




On/Off.
TOR



MIL.



SportsVu Shot Stats.
TOR.




MIL.

Media Guide Notes.

Spoiler:

Conclusion: I have the Raps in 6, I think we could really crap the bed defensively and still outscore them. Obviously given previous struggles theres a probability of KL/DD dont show up, but that was against a cpl top defenses in previous first rounds with WAS/IND. Both played well vs BK/CLE (avg defenses), so I see them likely to put up a decent offensive showing. I could see both Ibaka/JV having big games on the Boards/PTS. I worry about the MIL transition game, and their ability to get hot from streaky shooters, but I just dont think they have enough to overcome the Raps (Edit: with or without Jabari).

Also ill try to bump this with anything I find of interest, although I think I covered most of what I wanted.

Disclaimer: If all your going to do is type "_____ sucks", "tl;dr", etc.. please dont participate in this thread, thanks. I dont care about the And1s, or "thank you's", so please by all means participate. Perhaps I missed things, made errors, maybe you can drop some insight I may have missed, its what made last few yrs threads great. We as a group identified all the things the Wiz 2 yrs ago and the Raps last year needed to win, and they did it.

What say you??

[15Years]

Wow, this is extremely comprehensive thank you for this!

I have us in 5.

[AreBe]

5 vs , biggest problem

[Rhettmatic]

Thoroughly enjoyed the thread, thanks.

[vini_vidi_vici]

5 vs , biggest problem

??? 5 v 8 (refs)??

[Kabookalu]

Fantastic work VVV.

I'm shocked that the Bucks' transition defense is so bad. You'd think that having a lot of mobile players on the perimeter would automatically lend itself to having good transition defense, but I guess not.

[djsunyc]

vvv being single confirmed.
vvv being unemployed confirmed.
either that or vvv on cocaine confirmed.

[YogurtProducer]

vvv being single confirmed.
vvv being unemployed confirmed.
either that or vvv on cocaine confirmed.

VVV on good Friday confirmed

[vini_vidi_vici]

Fantastic work VVV.

I'm shocked that the Bucks' transition defense is so bad. You'd think that having a lot of mobile players on the perimeter would automatically lend itself to having good transition defense, but I guess not.

If you look at their FGA shot chart in the Raps O vs Bucks D section, it looks like 66.1% of their FGAs were taken from the 5 zones against their baseline, so its harder to get back from there. Also a quick thing I noticed was they are 12th in TOV% and T11th TOV per 100 possessions, so that isnt helping either.

Without looking though, I would have probably agreed that they would have been a good transition defense. It is shocking.

[VinBaker6]

The Bucks are a relatively average defensive team but the one thing they do well is switch and trap the PnR with their long arms. The Raptors initiate most of their offense out of the PnR, so they have to be ready to use the short roll. Most teams get killed by Toronto via the 1-2 PnR with Lowry and DD, but the Bucks seem content on having Brogdon switch onto DD. He has crazy length and is underrated defending the post. So while that may seem like a good thing for MIL to switch that action, they might be fine. My overall point is, the Bucks are meh defensively against most teams but might be solid against Toronto's PnR heavy offense, simply due to the way the Raptors guards use the PNR. I think the Raps have to employ more screen the screener PnR action to be successful, especially off pindowns.

Overall, they are too weak offensively in the half-court to pose much of a threat as you pointed out VVV. I actually have the Raps in 5.

[vini_vidi_vici]

vvv being single confirmed.
vvv being unemployed confirmed.
either that or vvv on cocaine confirmed.

Cocaine and Good Friday combined guys, pineapple pizza on deck.

[15Years]

vvv being IBM Watson confirmed

FTFY

[vini_vidi_vici]

The Bucks are a relatively average defensive team but the one thing they do well is switch and trap the PnR with their long arms. The Raptors initiate most of their offense out of the PnR, so they have to be ready to use the short roll. Most teams get killed by Toronto via the 1-2 PnR with Lowry and DD, but the Bucks seem content on having Brogdon switch onto DD. He has crazy length and is underrated defending the post. So while that may seem like a good thing for MIL to switch that action, they might be fine. My overall point is, the Bucks are meh defensively against most teams but might be solid against Toronto's PnR heavy offense, simply due to the way the Raptors guards use the PNR. I think the Raps have to employ more screen the screener PnR action to be successful, especially off pindowns.

Overall, they are too weak offensively in the half-court to pose much of a threat as you pointed out VVV. I actually have the Raps in 5.

Yea I wonder if they are going to be content with that. I feel like PostUps is probably our worst avenue to attack. I disagree in the sense that what frees up our PnR is solid screen setters in Ibaka/PP/JV. Youre right that they have a good 1/2 counter though, and nice catch im def going to watch that.

Is it assumed Brogdon on KL, Giannis on DD, Middleton on DMC?? If so, I think those are ideal match ups for MIL.

I think 5 is plausible, I think going 4 or 7 less so. Good stuff Vin.

[VanWest82]

I like us in 5 or 6 as it just feels like defensively this is a good match up for us (corroborated by all the stats - thanks!).

Bucks (edit: Giannis) can really hurt us in transition, and so it will be important to control pace of the game, but I bet we're able to do that for the most part. Guys like Carroll, Ibaka, Patterson, Tucker, etc., should be able to get back as long as we're disciplined not to chase offensive rebounds (and it will be tempting as the Bucks are 26th in DRB%).

One main thing all these match up numbers don't quite capture is how they're going to defend us with Brogdon, Giannis, and Middleton now all playing big minutes. The key component is what they do with Lowry. I don't think Brogdon is quick enough and we'll break down their D with every Lowry PnR if they try to defend straight up. I'm sure Kidd will have a trick or two up his sleeve, but to me their ability (or not) to slow down Kyle is the main plot point in this series.

Edit: When you consider how good JV has been as a roll man this year (92%), and badly they seem to struggle covering the roll man (Munroe @ 24%, Giannis @ 43%, Brogdon on switches @ 10%) I'd say JV fans are likely to get their wish re touches.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Whats weird is given they have the 5th slowest PACE, I wonder how functional their transition is. Its almost like they get out and run if not its gotta be a long drawn out possession that is avg efficiency.

[VanWest82]

I predict a blow out in game one. The Bucks play a lot of young guys and I don't think many of them will have experienced the kind of atmosphere Raptor fans are going to provide in the ACC.

[VanWest82]

Whats weird is given they have the 5th slowest PACE, I wonder how functional their transition is. Its almost like they get out and run if not its gotta be a long drawn out possession that is avg efficiency.

I think it's mostly about containing Giannis as they really don't have any other natural transition threats. They look for him on a one man fast break and if it's not there, they walk it up as you said. Thankfully for us their shooting isn't great.

[ruckus]

Whats weird is given they have the 5th slowest PACE, I wonder how functional their transition is. Its almost like they get out and run if not its gotta be a long drawn out possession that is avg efficiency.

Even if they push the pace, the Bucks are overmatched at pretty much every facet of the game. The Raps played 33 games faster than both theirs and the Bucks' average pace. In those games, the Raps went 19-14 according bbref. Milwaukee played 30 games faster than their average pace and the Raptors' average pace. They went 14-16.

From looking at all the info available, the Bucks are going uphill on a steep incline against the Raps. I have the Raps in 5. We're going to see extended stretches of utter domination by the Raps this series.

[Dirk]

Whats weird is given they have the 5th slowest PACE, I wonder how functional their transition is. Its almost like they get out and run if not its gotta be a long drawn out possession that is avg efficiency.

I think it's mostly about containing Giannis as they really don't have any other natural transition threats. They look for him on a one man fast break and if it's not there, they walk it up as you said. Thankfully for us their shooting isn't great.

I was caught off guard with them being the 5th slowest pace. We just have this vision on our minds when we see the Bucks:



47% of their points are in the paint. And they have the 3rd highest percentage of points off turnovers. That explains our perception that they were a faster paced team. Watching them, they always felt like they had a ton of possessions that are discombobulated - with basically it all coming down to Giannis trying to attack a space, but no real elaborate plays.

[Steelo Green]

Great work as always.

I think the fact we aren't facing a defensive monster to start as we did in years past is going to make this a fairly easy series. If we win game one, I see five. I think you're saying 6 to be safe because we seem to always just have tough series, but I could see our O thriving and their O stifled. Giannis will get his, but they will have trouble in their secondary and tertiary guys getting it going.