Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #40

[scrabbarista]

40. Elvin Hayes
41. Artis Gilmore

Gilmore is already in.

I woke up this morning and thought to myself, "I think Gilmore is already in." Logged on to check it, and... yep. My bad! Will edit my vote now.

[scrabbarista]

1st choice: Wes Unseld
Honorable Mention: George Gervin

If you're not giving Unseld a look, you're missing a gem. You're getting a guy who is recognized as a high impact performer (VORP, BPM), was selected to be an MVP, was a strong playoff performer & enjoyed strong team success.

Advanced Metrics

Unseld hit 5+ scores for both BPM & VORP twice - that we know of - one of which didn't come in a double digit WS year. If we make the reasonably safe assumption that he hit those scores in ALL of his double digit WS year, that gives him 5 years of a BPM Score of 5+ and 5 years of a VORP Score of 5+.

What's so impressive about that? If I look at all the players excluding McGrady who got 1st place votes last round, they hit VORP 5+ a combined 6 times* with no other player getting there 3 times and they hit BPM 5+ a combined 3 times.

* - Hayes never got to 10 WS in a pre'74 season so I didn't assume he made it at all prior to '74, Cousy never got to 9 WS even.

It's highly likely that if we had RAPM, the metric would've loved him as well.

MVP
In the '68-'69 season, Unseld was selected MVP over guys who are already in like Wilt, Russell, West, Baylor, Frazier & Hondo. He is clearly well respected by his peers. His team improved by 21 wins without any changes to their core or a coaching change.

Strong playoff performer

In the playoffs, he maintains his strong performance - averaging 10/15/4/with 1.8 TOs (on fairly limited data) which is right on par with his career averages.

The most infamous defeat one of his teams suffer isn't really on him (the '75 Finals). He does his thing - 12-17-4 on 54% TS. That's who he was. Hayes crippled the team offensively - yes, he scored 20 PPG but he shot a miserable TS% of just 46%.

Strong Team Success

Unseld was the team playoff leader in WS and then VORP/BPM for 4 Finals Teams* as he was vital to his teams' playoff success as mentioned by his strong playoff numbers above. Unseld only misses the playoffs once in a strong 13 year career that sees him pace his team in every year but 2 ('74 - injuries & '81 - injuries + final year) in VORP & BPM - and before that in WS.

* - Hayes outpaced Unseld in Playoff VORP; Unseld outpaced Hayes in Playoff BPM as well as regular season VORP and BPM

Unseld would make a fantastic addition to our Top 40. You're getting an MVP who is recognized as a high impact performer by advanced metrics, who had decent longevity, was a strong playoff performer and was the driver of a consistent winner.

You just don't see guys who achieved that much this late; there's guys left who achieved higher peaks, but had much worse longevity - Unseld brings very high impact years over a sustained run as a winner; the really high peak players remaining (Westbrook, Tmac, McAdoo, Walton) can't say that.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sometimes WS, BPM, VORP & RAPM get it wrong. George Gervin is one of those cases. There's a lot of value in having the leading scorer who does so at the efficiency that Gervin achieved. Let's focus in on his scoring title years:

'78 - 27.2 ppg @ +7.9% TS relative to league average; 14.0% TOV - looks high but still 2% below league average
'79 - 29.6 ppg @ +6.1% TS relative to league average; 12.5% TOV
'80 - 33.1 ppg @ +5.4% TS relative to league average; 10.3% TOV
'82 - 32.3 ppg @ +2.3% TS relative to league average; 8.5% TOV

Offensively he's a clear boon to your team.

It translates to winning too - this isn't empty stats by any stretch of the imagination.. The Spurs win their division in 3 of those 4 years and he's anchoring offenses that are top 3 or higher every year from '75-'84 with the lone exception of '81 when they were 4th. The Spurs win 50 games or more in their final 2 ABA years and 5 Division Titles upon entering the league.

His numbers translate well to the post-season averaging 29-7-3, 1 stl & 1 block on 56% TS from '75-'83 and for the intangible guys, it's noteworthy that he's not really being moved around either unlike an Adrian Dantley,

So, with all that, why is he below Unseld? His defensive issues come to play for sure - while I don't think this is a James Harden situation, the defensive metrics we have outside of blocks/steals don't paint him in a positive light at all. Additionally, his impact outside of scoring is a little bit light. A typical year from him aside from the monster scoring is something like 5 reb, 3 ast. On the rare off-night offensively, he's not doing much for you, so he's a little bit of a one trick pony in terms of the ways he impacts the game. It's still immensely valuable and he does it for a long time - but there's a reason the VORP/BPM #'s I wrote above are so glowing for Unseld & not for Gervin. I think the #'s are wrong in regards to Gervin - but I give Unseld a slight edge because he has more than one way he's impacting the game.

Great post. I'm not changing my vote yet, but I'll go back now, fiddle with my formula, and see what turns up.

[scrabbarista]

1st choice: Wes Unseld
Honorable Mention: George Gervin

If you're not giving Unseld a look, you're missing a gem. You're getting a guy who is recognized as a high impact performer (VORP, BPM), was selected to be an MVP, was a strong playoff performer & enjoyed strong team success.

Advanced Metrics

Unseld hit 5+ scores for both BPM & VORP twice - that we know of - one of which didn't come in a double digit WS year. If we make the reasonably safe assumption that he hit those scores in ALL of his double digit WS year, that gives him 5 years of a BPM Score of 5+ and 5 years of a VORP Score of 5+.

What's so impressive about that? If I look at all the players excluding McGrady who got 1st place votes last round, they hit VORP 5+ a combined 6 times* with no other player getting there 3 times and they hit BPM 5+ a combined 3 times.

* - Hayes never got to 10 WS in a pre'74 season so I didn't assume he made it at all prior to '74, Cousy never got to 9 WS even.

It's highly likely that if we had RAPM, the metric would've loved him as well.

MVP
In the '68-'69 season, Unseld was selected MVP over guys who are already in like Wilt, Russell, West, Baylor, Frazier & Hondo. He is clearly well respected by his peers. His team improved by 21 wins without any changes to their core or a coaching change.

Strong playoff performer

In the playoffs, he maintains his strong performance - averaging 10/15/4/with 1.8 TOs (on fairly limited data) which is right on par with his career averages.

The most infamous defeat one of his teams suffer isn't really on him (the '75 Finals). He does his thing - 12-17-4 on 54% TS. That's who he was. Hayes crippled the team offensively - yes, he scored 20 PPG but he shot a miserable TS% of just 46%.

Strong Team Success

Unseld was the team playoff leader in WS and then VORP/BPM for 4 Finals Teams* as he was vital to his teams' playoff success as mentioned by his strong playoff numbers above. Unseld only misses the playoffs once in a strong 13 year career that sees him pace his team in every year but 2 ('74 - injuries & '81 - injuries + final year) in VORP & BPM - and before that in WS.

* - Hayes outpaced Unseld in Playoff VORP; Unseld outpaced Hayes in Playoff BPM as well as regular season VORP and BPM

Unseld would make a fantastic addition to our Top 40. You're getting an MVP who is recognized as a high impact performer by advanced metrics, who had decent longevity, was a strong playoff performer and was the driver of a consistent winner.

You just don't see guys who achieved that much this late; there's guys left who achieved higher peaks, but had much worse longevity - Unseld brings very high impact years over a sustained run as a winner; the really high peak players remaining (Westbrook, Tmac, McAdoo, Walton) can't say that.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sometimes WS, BPM, VORP & RAPM get it wrong. George Gervin is one of those cases. There's a lot of value in having the leading scorer who does so at the efficiency that Gervin achieved. Let's focus in on his scoring title years:

'78 - 27.2 ppg @ +7.9% TS relative to league average; 14.0% TOV - looks high but still 2% below league average
'79 - 29.6 ppg @ +6.1% TS relative to league average; 12.5% TOV
'80 - 33.1 ppg @ +5.4% TS relative to league average; 10.3% TOV
'82 - 32.3 ppg @ +2.3% TS relative to league average; 8.5% TOV

Offensively he's a clear boon to your team.

It translates to winning too - this isn't empty stats by any stretch of the imagination.. The Spurs win their division in 3 of those 4 years and he's anchoring offenses that are top 3 or higher every year from '75-'84 with the lone exception of '81 when they were 4th. The Spurs win 50 games or more in their final 2 ABA years and 5 Division Titles upon entering the league.

His numbers translate well to the post-season averaging 29-7-3, 1 stl & 1 block on 56% TS from '75-'83 and for the intangible guys, it's noteworthy that he's not really being moved around either unlike an Adrian Dantley,

So, with all that, why is he below Unseld? His defensive issues come to play for sure - while I don't think this is a James Harden situation, the defensive metrics we have outside of blocks/steals don't paint him in a positive light at all. Additionally, his impact outside of scoring is a little bit light. A typical year from him aside from the monster scoring is something like 5 reb, 3 ast. On the rare off-night offensively, he's not doing much for you, so he's a little bit of a one trick pony in terms of the ways he impacts the game. It's still immensely valuable and he does it for a long time - but there's a reason the VORP/BPM #'s I wrote above are so glowing for Unseld & not for Gervin. I think the #'s are wrong in regards to Gervin - but I give Unseld a slight edge because he has more than one way he's impacting the game.

You paint a lovely picture, and I've usually had Unseld in the low 50's, so he's close (ten spots isn't much at this point in the list), but looking at his career BPM and VORP, he's 27th in BPM and 87th in VORP. The average of those two is 57th. I actually have him at 61st overall right now, without using BPM or VORP in my formula (until the '16-'17 season, actually). I'm just not sure that those numbers are so far apart that I need to incorporate those particular stats into my formula.

Also, by linking WS and BPM/VORP in your argument, you've inadvertently reinforced my reliance on WS as a stat that is available going further back into league history.

Team success is the other pillar of your argument, which is something that already appears fairly prominently in my formula. I've always wished that team winning percentage (or expected %, if you prefer) in games played was a readily available stat (much was made of Duncan's in his final few years), but I just don't have the patience to go through BBR and line it up. Besides, it shows up to an extent in WS, Finals appearances, titles, playoff games played and total PS stats, etc.

In short, great argument, you definitively increased my respect for Unseld (and actually, my formula incorporates the rankings in this RGM list, so if you convince others to put him in here, at 40th, when he was 69th in 2014, you will have effectively convinced me to increase his ranking as well), but not quite to the point where I think my formula is so broken than it'd be worth the time and effort - always considerable - it takes to rejigger it.

As a post-script, I would note that I have him at 61st when his 2014 ranking of 69th is actually incorporated into his score. Thus, my formula is already showing him more respect than the voters did last time around.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote 1 - George Gervin

Vote 2 - Willis Reed

Reasoning - viewtopic.php?p=58490363#p58490363

[Outside]

I will vote later since the new voting system is still getting sorted out but I will talk about Unseld since he appears to be the frontrunner in this round.

1. Unseld's 1969 MVP is worth about as much as Iverson's 2001 MVP for me. Both were around the 5th best player in the league but they weren't better than Russell/West/Reed/Oscar or Shaq/Kobe/Duncan/Garnett. Howard (2011) and Mourning (1999) came much closer to being the best player in the league than Unseld IMO.

2. Unseld is not close to being a DPOY level defender. He is undersized at only 6'6 and doesn't have the Ben Wallace level athleticism to make up for the lack of height. As a rim protector, he peaked at less than 1 block a game and he doesn't have the lateral quickness to guard smaller players out on the perimeter. DBPM numbers are elite but Unseld's strength in the low post as a man defender is his only strength on defense and even in that area, he doesn't have the length to contest shots effectively.

3. The Bullets generally had good team success thanks to their defense but Unseld was not the defensive anchor. The team had two of the best defensive PFs of the era in Gus Johnson and Elvin Hayes to cover for Unseld's lack of shotblocking. Despite his poor intangibles and inefficient chucking, I have Hayes ranked above Unseld in most of their seasons together and adding in the difference in longevity, I am not seeing the case for Unseld ahead of Hayes.

Unseld's offense is pretty good but his defense is not strong enough compared to the perennial DPOY centers such as Howard, Mourning, Mutombo, Wallace and I think defense is far more important for big men.

I'm not sure what happened, but I responded earlier to this post, it looked like it posted, but now it's not here. If this is somehow a duplicate, sorry about that, but [shrug]

'LA Bird's post does a nice job of summarizing Unseld's limitations. He benefits from an instant reputation built on his rookie MVP season and the assumption that he maintained or improved on that elite level of play, but it's not that simple. He was a great rebounder known for wicked outlet passes. Offensively, he wasn't a great scorer (career 10.8 average, only one season over 15 PPG), but he was a good playmaker (3.9 APG for his career), which is what was needed on teams with better scorers. Defensively, he maximized the effectiveness of his strength, low center of gravity, and massive keister to disrupt opponents, but he was a floor-bound defender. He had the good fortune of playing on teams that compensated for his weaknesses.

When the Bullets won the title in 1977-78, he was on the downslope of his career, averaging only 7.6 PPG (9th on the team) and 33.1 MPG, though he still had 11.9 RPG and 4.1 APG. His PS averages were 37.6 minutes (3rd on the team), 12.0 rebounds (2nd), 9.4 points (7th), and 4.4 assists (2nd). Still a major contributor, but hardly eye-popping.

In the 1975 finals loss to the Warriors, he had good numbers -- 12.3 PPG, 16.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 52.6 FG%, 1.0 STL, 0.8 BLK. But he was actually outplayed by the Warriors' two-headed center combo of Clifford Ray and George Johnson -- 13.5 PPG, 17.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 63.2 FG%, 1.6 STL, 4.3 BLK.

He was really good at a few things, and while rebounding and playmaking are important, valuable skills, it's hard to overlook his lack of scoring and his defensive limitations. The net result is that Unseld is really hard for me to rank.

[Lou Fan]

Now that Kidd's off the board that opens up a whole new tier of guys for me to consider here.
Next Tier: Gervin, Nique, T-Mac, Dwight, Reggie, Harden, Zo, Billups, McHale. I might be forgetting a couple guys but this is generally where my head's at.

Gervin: Iceman gets criminally underrated in most GOAT discussions especially here with a lot of people on this forum underrating volume scoring. He led the league in scoring 4 times on unbelievable efficiency for his time. He could take over games in the blink of an eye he could ring 40 on you. Gervin as a scorer imo tops Kobe as well as many other ATG scorers. I bet most people can't name a single Gervin teammate except maybe Kenon and they were still a tough team in the post-season. In 79' they blew a 3-1 in the ECF and I think they would've had a great chance in the finals against Seattle. He put up 42 in Game 7 and they still lost. Gervin was a great playoff performer but he was often let down by his teammates. However, Gervin had some gaping holes in his game most notably defense and passing. Gervin a bad defender but the degree to which he was a bad defender is overstated. He was clearly a better defender than Harden and anyone who says otherwise doesn't know what they're talking about. However his passing is usually understated as a problem he averaged more turnovers per game than assists for his career. If he could've been just a solid passer he probably has a ring and we are probably discussing him in the top 20.

Nique: He was a slightly worse 80s version of Gervin who also suffers because of this forums dislike of volume scorers but until Gervin goes Nique can't be considered.

Howard: In 99.9% of cases I couldn't care less about intangibles and Howard falls in that .1%. Dwight is just so incredibly toxic and delusional I can't give him a pass for his ridiculous immaturity and stupidity. That being said Dwight the player gets way too much hate because of Dwight the person. He was a BEAST. Best player in the league defensively throughout his peak and his 4 DPOYs were deserved. He led the league in DWS 4 times as well. His defense at the C position alone makes him incredibly valuable but he was an efficient scorer as well. He consistently averaged around 20 ppg in his prime and he had solid gravity in the paint and in the pick and roll. He's an ATG rebounder on both ends and he led the league in rebounds 5 times. Post-prime/current Dwight also gets an unfairly bad rap as he is still probably a top 50 player in the league and his defense and rebounding are still really valuable. His 14 ppg this year where on his highest fg% of his career. That being said his horrible intangibles aren't his only weakness. He's a terrible passer and he commits at least 1 dumb/unnecessary turnover per game. With the amount of attention he drew in the paint 1.5 assists per game is unacceptable. He also faced pretty weak competition at the center position and in the east.

Reggie: 2nd greatest off ball player of all-time. ATG ceiling raiser and absolutely incredible playoff performer. He was also one of the clutchest players of all time. I understand the concern with his extremely underwhelming box score stats for a top 50 all-time player. However, his way ahead of the competition efficiency makes the low assists and rebounding numbers hurt a little less. He has the GOAT ORTG. However, he only did one thing well, score the basketball and even more specifically shoot the basketball. The defensive attention that followed him around and the awesome efficiency with which he shot the ball is what puts him in this conversation but he was average to poor at everything else so I'm not ready for him. yet....

Harden: Awesome peak and the rightful MVP this year (triple doubles are so overrated ). Great efficiency as a scorer and just a great well rounded player...... offensively . His lack of defense and longevity means its a bit too early for him.

Zo: Great peak in 00 and one of the best defensive centers of all time. Got unlucky playing the golden era of centers for most of his prime. Lack of playoff success is eye opening but the presence of an elite guard could probably have changed that. When he had Tim Hardaway they won 61 games and made the Eastern Conference Finals (barely). He surpasses his stats according to my eye test but mediocre advanced stats mean I might be wrong.

Billups: I love him and his style of play and his willingness to spread the wealth directly correlated to the Pistons success. He has awesome impact stats which I think are deserving and the Denver trade bodes well for him in examining his impact. Mr. Big Shot deserves a long hard look at this stage.

McHale: He had the most polished effective post-game that I've ever seen. Super high basketball IQ and obviously an integral part of the Celtics dynasty. He was also one of the best m2m post defenders of all time. He was a super efficient scorer despite his free throws and he doesn't get enough credit as a rebounder. He wasn't great but he was pretty solid. He was very inconsistent facing double teams and I often wonder whether he would've been nearly as effective/successful without Larry legend.

Last but not least my favorite player of all-time (yes I'm admitting to my slight bias though I try not to be) Tracy McGrady. T-Mac was the ideal point-forward and if for some reason we were cloning shooting guards I'd argue T-Mac would be the best choice. McGrady had it all 6'9" elite athleticism and wingspan. He had absolutely no holes in his game. I'll go through every portion of his game but not overly extensive. First his passing ability was great, truly elite. He knew how to find his teammates at the best time in the best spot and had the type of vision you can only be born with. He could pass out of any double-team and he basically never turned the ball over. His turnover pct was often below 10% which is really incredible. Another reason for his turnover averse play was his ball-handling. Tracy McGrady is the greatest SG ball handler of all time and at 6'9" that's really saying something. He could dribble the ball anywhere he wanted on the court and while sometimes his fancy displays of ball-handling killed ball movement they mostly enabled him to attack and score from wherever he wanted. These two traits made him the best point-forward of his time (pre LBJ of course). He could do literally whatever he wanted as far as scoring the basketball. He could get to the basket and finish with ease, he had a solid post up game with a great fadeaway, he could pull up for 3 off-the dribble, he could spot up and hit shots, he could run off screens, he could any type of step-back, turnaround, hop step mid range jumpers you could think of, he could play in the pick and roll to score or pass, and he could explode out of the triple-threat. He had the most variety in his coring of any player I've ever seen and possibly the most ever. He was really the perfect wing. T-Mac was really beautiful to watch. Watching T-Mac play was like watching Federer play tennis it looks as tho they were born to play the sport and they just glide around the court gracefully dismantling their opponents in a way that seems effortless. This seemingly effortlessness in McGrady's game probably partially contributed to the perception of him being a lazy player. McGrady's work ethic was pretty poor and if he had Kobe or MJ killer in him, provided he was healthy, he'd be top 3 all-time. He was never a great leader and he was a pretty quiet guy but his intangibles other than work ethic weren't a negative. I can't honestly blame him for his lack of effort if your best teammates were Juwan Howard and Mike Miller you'd probably be pretty frustrated and lazy too. Those Orlando supporting casts are so laughably bad that they dwarf LBJ and Kobe's and even Garnett's. No wonder his back couldn't take him carrying all those scrubs for 4 years . His situation was just completely hopeless. Maybe that's why he always settled for deep contested 2s his jumper was awesome but no one can hit contested perimeter shots consistently at a high percentage. He easily could've gotten to the rim more or created more open looks but he really seemed to half-ass games at time because of how **** his teams were. He was literally the only guy on the team who could create any shots for himself or others. That's probably another reason he settled because he was tasked with doing literally everything for his team and he was probably exhausted. Had he played on even a decent team he would have the energy to attack the rim way more. Same goes for defense when he was playing at 100% effort he looked like an All-NBA defender but he was an average defender his whole career because he didn't care to play defense most of the time and he also didn't have energy to play D. McGrady was the only person on his team that defenses had to give any **** about and he still destroyed defenses. At his peak in 03 he had 30 ast % to 8.4 yes 8.4 tov % and had the greatest season of all-time tied with Michael Jordan according to OBPM at 9.8. The Magic still only went 42-40 and he played amazing in the playoffs and they still lost in 7 to the Pistons. It's honestly depressing to think about. If only Tim Duncan signed with the Magic and Grant Hill could stay healthy they would've been the greatest team of all-time and maybe McGrady's back wouldn't have been destroyed by carrying the 600 pound Shawn Kemp and all those other scrubs on his back. His 1 year peak is top 10 and his 7 year prime is awesome but it could've been so much more. He was the third best player in the league in the early 00s behind Shaq and TD and was the best offensive player in a time dominated by defense. This is getting ridiculously long so I'm done but I could go on for even longer if I wanted lol. I'm willing to answer any questions/debate with people about this but I think it's time for McGrady.
1st Vote: T-Mac
2nd: Gervin

[pandrade83]

1st choice: Wes Unseld
Honorable Mention: George Gervin

If you're not giving Unseld a look, you're missing a gem. You're getting a guy who is recognized as a high impact performer (VORP, BPM), was selected to be an MVP, was a strong playoff performer & enjoyed strong team success.

Advanced Metrics

Unseld hit 5+ scores for both BPM & VORP twice - that we know of - one of which didn't come in a double digit WS year. If we make the reasonably safe assumption that he hit those scores in ALL of his double digit WS year, that gives him 5 years of a BPM Score of 5+ and 5 years of a VORP Score of 5+.

What's so impressive about that? If I look at all the players excluding McGrady who got 1st place votes last round, they hit VORP 5+ a combined 6 times* with no other player getting there 3 times and they hit BPM 5+ a combined 3 times.

* - Hayes never got to 10 WS in a pre'74 season so I didn't assume he made it at all prior to '74, Cousy never got to 9 WS even.

It's highly likely that if we had RAPM, the metric would've loved him as well.

MVP
In the '68-'69 season, Unseld was selected MVP over guys who are already in like Wilt, Russell, West, Baylor, Frazier & Hondo. He is clearly well respected by his peers. His team improved by 21 wins without any changes to their core or a coaching change.

Strong playoff performer

In the playoffs, he maintains his strong performance - averaging 10/15/4/with 1.8 TOs (on fairly limited data) which is right on par with his career averages.

The most infamous defeat one of his teams suffer isn't really on him (the '75 Finals). He does his thing - 12-17-4 on 54% TS. That's who he was. Hayes crippled the team offensively - yes, he scored 20 PPG but he shot a miserable TS% of just 46%.

Strong Team Success

Unseld was the team playoff leader in WS and then VORP/BPM for 4 Finals Teams* as he was vital to his teams' playoff success as mentioned by his strong playoff numbers above. Unseld only misses the playoffs once in a strong 13 year career that sees him pace his team in every year but 2 ('74 - injuries & '81 - injuries + final year) in VORP & BPM - and before that in WS.

* - Hayes outpaced Unseld in Playoff VORP; Unseld outpaced Hayes in Playoff BPM as well as regular season VORP and BPM

Unseld would make a fantastic addition to our Top 40. You're getting an MVP who is recognized as a high impact performer by advanced metrics, who had decent longevity, was a strong playoff performer and was the driver of a consistent winner.

You just don't see guys who achieved that much this late; there's guys left who achieved higher peaks, but had much worse longevity - Unseld brings very high impact years over a sustained run as a winner; the really high peak players remaining (Westbrook, Tmac, McAdoo, Walton) can't say that.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sometimes WS, BPM, VORP & RAPM get it wrong. George Gervin is one of those cases. There's a lot of value in having the leading scorer who does so at the efficiency that Gervin achieved. Let's focus in on his scoring title years:

'78 - 27.2 ppg @ +7.9% TS relative to league average; 14.0% TOV - looks high but still 2% below league average
'79 - 29.6 ppg @ +6.1% TS relative to league average; 12.5% TOV
'80 - 33.1 ppg @ +5.4% TS relative to league average; 10.3% TOV
'82 - 32.3 ppg @ +2.3% TS relative to league average; 8.5% TOV

Offensively he's a clear boon to your team.

It translates to winning too - this isn't empty stats by any stretch of the imagination.. The Spurs win their division in 3 of those 4 years and he's anchoring offenses that are top 3 or higher every year from '75-'84 with the lone exception of '81 when they were 4th. The Spurs win 50 games or more in their final 2 ABA years and 5 Division Titles upon entering the league.

His numbers translate well to the post-season averaging 29-7-3, 1 stl & 1 block on 56% TS from '75-'83 and for the intangible guys, it's noteworthy that he's not really being moved around either unlike an Adrian Dantley,

So, with all that, why is he below Unseld? His defensive issues come to play for sure - while I don't think this is a James Harden situation, the defensive metrics we have outside of blocks/steals don't paint him in a positive light at all. Additionally, his impact outside of scoring is a little bit light. A typical year from him aside from the monster scoring is something like 5 reb, 3 ast. On the rare off-night offensively, he's not doing much for you, so he's a little bit of a one trick pony in terms of the ways he impacts the game. It's still immensely valuable and he does it for a long time - but there's a reason the VORP/BPM #'s I wrote above are so glowing for Unseld & not for Gervin. I think the #'s are wrong in regards to Gervin - but I give Unseld a slight edge because he has more than one way he's impacting the game.

You paint a lovely picture, and I've usually had Unseld in the low 50's, so he's close (ten spots isn't much at this point in the list), but looking at his career BPM and VORP, he's 27th in BPM and 87th in VORP. The average of those two is 57th. I actually have him at 61st overall right now, without using BPM or VORP in my formula (until the '16-'17 season, actually). I'm just not sure that those numbers are so far apart that I need to incorporate those particular stats into my formula.

Also, by linking WS and BPM/VORP in your argument, you've inadvertently reinforced my reliance on WS as a stat that is available going further back into league history.

Team success is the other pillar of your argument, which is something that already appears fairly prominently in my formula. I've always wished that team winning percentage (or expected %, if you prefer) in games played was a readily available stat (much was made of Duncan's in his final few years), but I just don't have the patience to go through BBR and line it up. Besides, it shows up to an extent in WS, Finals appearances, titles, playoff games played and total PS stats, etc.

In short, great argument, you definitively increased my respect for Unseld (and actually, my formula incorporates the rankings in this RGM list, so if you convince others to put him in here, at 40th, when he was 69th in 2014, you will have effectively convinced me to increase his ranking as well), but not quite to the point where I think my formula is so broken than it'd be worth the time and effort - always considerable - it takes to rejigger it.

As a post-script, I would note that I have him at 61st when his 2014 ranking of 69th is actually incorporated into his score. Thus, my formula is already showing him more respect than the voters did last time around.

Thanks for the note & props.

One note when looking at career VORP/BPM - it's only tracked from '74 on - so be careful when looking at career leaders on it. A couple disclosures from my post that I want to reiterate: I assumed 3 more years of VORP/BPM Scores of 5+ based on the fact that hit those levels in a 9.5 WS year (actually got to 5+ BPM in a 8.7 WS year) and had 3 years of WS before '74 above that level.

I typically don't look at career VORP/BPM rankings for that reason unless it's a true apple to apple comparison.

The second disclosure is that VORP & BPM don't translate the same to WS for all players - but in my post I didn't give Cousy credit for BPM/VORP scores of that level when he didn't get to 9 WS in ANY year; Hayes never got to those levels in WS 12+ years; pre'74 he never got close to his WS peaks.

Hope that helps! I'll be interested to see if I persuaded anyone.

[pandrade83]

I will vote later since the new voting system is still getting sorted out but I will talk about Unseld since he appears to be the frontrunner in this round.

1. Unseld's 1969 MVP is worth about as much as Iverson's 2001 MVP for me. Both were around the 5th best player in the league but they weren't better than Russell/West/Reed/Oscar or Shaq/Kobe/Duncan/Garnett. Howard (2011) and Mourning (1999) came much closer to being the best player in the league than Unseld IMO.

2. Unseld is not close to being a DPOY level defender. He is undersized at only 6'6 and doesn't have the Ben Wallace level athleticism to make up for the lack of height. As a rim protector, he peaked at less than 1 block a game and he doesn't have the lateral quickness to guard smaller players out on the perimeter. DBPM numbers are elite but Unseld's strength in the low post as a man defender is his only strength on defense and even in that area, he doesn't have the length to contest shots effectively.

3. The Bullets generally had good team success thanks to their defense but Unseld was not the defensive anchor. The team had two of the best defensive PFs of the era in Gus Johnson and Elvin Hayes to cover for Unseld's lack of shotblocking. Despite his poor intangibles and inefficient chucking, I have Hayes ranked above Unseld in most of their seasons together and adding in the difference in longevity, I am not seeing the case for Unseld ahead of Hayes.

Unseld's offense is pretty good but his defense is not strong enough compared to the perennial DPOY centers such as Howard, Mourning, Mutombo, Wallace and I think defense is far more important for big men.

I definitely think your 1st & 2nd points are very fair for sure - his MVP was one of the weaker ones and I wouldn't try to dispute that.

They were above average defensively in the Unseld/no Hayes era and got better than they were in '68 - improving from -0.2 to -3.8 - then steadily deteriorating until they hit -0.3 - then Hayes joined and they took a big step forward. Fair point.

WRT Hayes vs. Unseld, I disagree with you for a couple reasons:

1) Unseld beats Hayes in regular season VORP/BPM every year but '74 & '81.

2) The above holds true for every playoffs as well except '74 & '78 (VORP only - Unseld still beats him on playoff scores)

3) Hayes is a big reason that he & Unseld have just 1 chip - they could've easily had 3 Championships but Hayes hurt them in both series. Unseld was good in '75 & mediocre in '79.
'75 - 46% TS and 10.8 Rebounds isn't that impressive in 42 minutes and that's part of the reason they got rebounded by double digits.. Unseld played better netting 12-17-4.

Neither guy played great in the '79 FInals that they lost to Seattle. Hayes got 20 & 12 which is fine, but he shot 45% TS which is just a crippler to your offense. He also only netted 1 assist per game which indicates Hayes is a major drag on your offense. Unseld wasn't great either though to be honest - but at least he wasn't crippling you with 11-11-4 & 52% TS. I'd prefer that to Hayes performance - just because it's so hard to win when your RS leading scorer is killing you offensively in the Finals.

[trex_8063]

Top candidates for me at this spot are Paul Pierce, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Robert Parish, Reggie Miller, and George Gervin.

Pros/Cons for each (mostly speaking relative to the others).....

Reggie Miller
Pros - When factoring in both the shooting efficiency and his remarkable turnover economy (which, even in light of his relatively pedestrian assist numbers, is still so elite that it's really only topped by Dirk and Chris Paul, among all-timers), as well as his proven record of being the anchor for good-to-elite offenses, and his consistent elevation of play in the playoffs........I think he's arguably the best scorer of this bunch (it's not just about the ppg, is what I'm saying). Gervin is the only one who gives him a run for his money here.
He's likely got the best cocktail of longevity/consistency/durability of all of them except for Parish: He was a roughly average player as a rookie, but an above average [at least] player every other year of his career 18-year career ("very good" to elite for about 13 of them). And he had only two seasons in which he missed more than 10 games (and never missed as many as 20), missing 1 game or less in ELEVEN of his 18 seasons.
Cons - Average defensively, average play-making wing (though he did have a fine Ast:TO ratio at least), mediocre to poor rebounding wing. Lacks certain awards/accolades as part of his "legacy", even relative to this group.

Pau Gasol
Pros - The best passing big of those I've listed (and by a good long margin). Has the best shooting range of all the bigs I've mentioned (and is a very good outside and FT shooting big in a more broad historical sense).
Very portable game due to his diverse skillset on offense (can be a back-to-the-basket scorer, can work the pnr/pnp, stretch the floor, function as a playmaker, etc). All around is the best offensive big-man of those I listed above.
Has 2 titles (3 finals appearances) as the clear 2nd-best player (bordering on a 1b for one of the titles).
the Indifferent - Good rebounder, though solidly behind Dwight in this. His longevity is mediocre among this crowd that I've listed (better than Gervin's, well ahead of Howard's, but at least a little behind everyone else. Sort of middle of the road among this group in award/accolades.
Cons - Weakest defensive big of those I've listed.

Paul Pierce
Pros - The best defensive wing player I've listed by a clear margin. Best playmaking wing and best rebounding wing of those I listed.
1 title (2 finals appearances) as the clear 2nd-best player (won a FMVP, fwiw, which is a stand-alone achievement among those I've listed). Had a reasonably good show as a floor-raiser prior to the contending years.
Meh? - Lesser longevity than Parish and arguably marginally behind Miller in the longevity/consistency/durability "cocktail"; but better in this than the other three. Somewhat middle of the road as a scorer among this crowd: clearly lesser than Miller or Gervin, imo; debatable against the others.
Cons - Doesn't really have any true "cons" vs this group. Many things he's pretty middle of the pack in, but nothing he's decidedly behind in (unless I'm missing something, I am tired).

Robert Parish
Pros - Dat longevity! Just an amazing contributor in the league for a really long damn time. Won two titles as the clear 3rd-best player and one as the clear 2nd-best player (plus a fourth as a bench-warmer for the Bulls, fwiw). Stepped up big-time (at age 35, iirc) to partially fill the void when Bird got injured in '89.
Neither the best nor worst here - Solid scorer, solid rebounding, solid defense.
Cons - Weak passing big. Inconsistent playoff performer.

Dwight Howard
Pros - Best defensive big of the group (best defensive player period). Devastatingly effective finisher at or around the rim, major threat on the pnr or any time you can spread the floor our around him; though not a good FT-shooter, he can really put foul pressure on the opposing team.
Best rebounder of the group by a solid margin.
imo, had the highest all-around peak of all the players I listed, as well as the best 3-year stretch of any of them (which is what puts here). Has (I think) probably the most impressive array of awards/honors among this group (though Gervin's at least close, I believe).
Cons - Weak passing big. Somewhat of a giant man-child at times, with relatively poor intangibles and bball IQ. The worst longevity of the group.

George Gervin
Pros - Arguably the best scorer of the group. Proven record of leading solid team offenses, and a fairly good showing as a floor raiser. One of the best "legacies" in terms of honors.
Cons - Arguably the weakest defensive wing here. Mediocre passer/playmaker. Longevity beats Howard, but otherwise takes a clear back seat to everyone else I've listed. And fwiw, is the only one to never be in an NBA finals.

SIDENOTE: Howard, Gasol, and Parish don't appear to have any relevant traction yet, so I'm likely going to avoid them for those reasons.


So with all that in mind, I'm going with....
1st vote: Paul Pierce
2nd vote: Reggie Miller

[euroleague]

Pick: Cousy
Alt: Kevin McHale
HM: George Gervin

Getting a little tired of voting Cousy.

Pick: Cousy - Cousey's passing influenced the way the game was played hugely, and he did so in an unconventional way that didn't gain any unfair advantage a la goaltending. He won an MVP as his prime was ending, and his offensive style lives on far past his retirement and beyond his success leading the Celtics pre-Russell (questionable how Russell's passing would've developed without Cousey).

When Cousy joined the league, the Celtics were a 20 win team, and he immediately brought them to 40 his rookie year. He changed a bottom dwelling team to an immediate contender, and went on to contend with an elite offense in the eastern conference before Russell ever joined. He won MVP, and led the league in assists many times on his way to 10 all-nba first teams.

Alt: McHale is possibly the greatest m2m PF defender in NBA history, and one of the greatest individual scorers in the post in NBA history. His playstyle is similar to Hakeem for most of Hakeem's career in terms of scoring and man2man defense, except McHale may be the superior post scorer and the superior man 2 man defender. He was, however, even worse at passing (basically a black hole on offense) and not a rim protector so these two aspects give Hakeem the edge on both ends in the end. But, McHale's scoring is getting very underrated.

McHale averaged 26ppg on 65% TS in 1987. He had a 24 PER, 10rpg and 2.2 bpg. His ws/48 was .232 and he played more minutes than Larry Bird, resulting in 14.8 WS.

To compare with MJ that year, MJ had a league leading 16.9 WS and a 29.8 PER.

Larry Bird led the league in PER in 85 and 86 with 26.5 and 25.8.

McHale was 5th in the league in PER, behind only MJ/Bird/Barkley/maybe Magic didn't look. He was 4th in WS and WS/48. He was top 10 in VORP/BPM, but didn't have the same impact coming off the court as he would have if he was the team captain (obviously) because Bird was the leader of the team, so these numbers are lessened.

His PER/WS/WS/48 were all ahead of Hakeem, Moses, Drexler, Dominique Wilkins, and many other stars in their heyday.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #30:

Wes Unseld - 2 (oldschooled, pandrade83)
Paul Pierce - 1 (trex_8063)
George Gervin - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Kevin McHale - 1 (penbeast0)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)
Willis Reed -1 (dhsilv2)
Tracy McGrady -1 (twolves97)
Elvin Hayes - 1 (scabbarista)
Dominique Wilkins - 1 (JordansBulls)

And you know a Reggie Miller vote is coming at some point (probably an Iverson one, too).....we will officially have 10+ candidates for the first time.

This thread will be open about 16-18 more hours.

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[Dr Positivity]

Thoughts on Cousy, Billups, Miller, Gervin, Tmac, Mourning, Dwight, Schayes, Iverson, Unseld, Pierce, Westbrook from last thread:

Spoiler:

Bob Cousy - Case for: Superb longevity. He is still a 2nd team All-NBA level, all-star in his 13th season. Highly regarded by his peers with all his All-NBA, wins MVP, and in 1980 which is about the halfway point for this project is one of 11 players selected for the 35th anniversary team ahead of some contenders here like Barry and Frazier. Being one of the best slashers of his era and the best passer are both high value offensive roles. Helped Boston to 1st ORTGs when he was the best player. Case against: Played against mostly segregated players in his prime. Being the best guard passer in a poor passing league doesn't necessarily mean he was better at it than future players. Weak TS leads to disappointing OWS and WS production, never finishes higher than 8th/9th in WS. The Celtics dynasty was predicted to collapse without him but they did just fine. Likely overcredited in his time for Boston's offensive success, noting that this was a time where they didn't know any better than to think whoever scored the most points had the best offense, eg. in Cousy's MVP year they had the 5th highest ORTG but scored the most points easily so they may have credited the offensive player as the driving force.

Chauncey Billups - Case for: Combination of passing, getting to the line and free throw line all of which is highly valuable on offense. Somewhat ahead of his time in appreciation for his skillset and value of 3pt spacing. Very good boxscore player with a few top 5s in WS (3rd/5th) and other top 10s and solid but would do better in VORP if his defense was rated better as it probably should've been. Leads Pistons to some strong seasons even without Ben Wallace. Iverson for Billups trade looks terrific for his case with his impact on the Nuggets both as a player and leader and Pistons decline without him. Case against: Ok longevity with about 8 strong years. Good but not great RAPM career, mainly peaking later in his prime. Felt less talented than other players in contention here. Not rated a superstar in his time, not even a star on the level of players like Pierce, Allen and Kidd. His reasonable MVP/All-NBA career somewhat misrepresents the lack of real star labelling there was for Billups. Seen somewhat like the game manager QB on an elite football defense, great at it, but still a game manager. Doesn't necessarily "put pressure on the defense" athletically.

Reggie Miller - Case for: Increases his stock in the playoffs where he is on several occasions a killer. Game translates to playoffs well since he can create open shots by movement. Outstanding longevity and durability and still has value late in his career as floor spacer. 17th in career WS. High floor spacing effect that he know better now than they did in the 90s the value of. Solid passing stats and ability to get to the FT Line, not just a spot up shooter. Good RAPM support. Case against: Shockingly little accolades in his time, not just missing MVP and All-NBA but all-star games half the time. Difficult to make the case he was ever a top 5 player, even in the stat that loves him WS he never finishes top 5. Limited RAPM sample also has him as very good but more of a fringe top 10 guy.

George Gervin - Case for: One of the best offensive careers left, leads the league in scoring 4x and a highly efficient scorer and leads good offenses and contenders. Considered a superstar on his time, 2x 2nd and 1x 3rd MVP finishes and 5 straight 1st team All-NBA. Case against: The Harden of his era on defense, probably worst top 50 defender if Harden doesn’t get in. Only finishes top 5 once in WS and peaks at 6th in VORP in NBA. Mediocre passing for his scoring volume, playmaking is typically critical for high offensive impact for a guard.

Tracy McGrady - Case for: Amazing statistical peak in 2003 right up there (9.7 BPM!) that’s up there with any Kobe season. Great playmaking wing increasing his value throughout his career along with high volume scoring. Good playoff performer. Case against: Weak longevity and health. Poor intangibles and often seemed half asleep. TS average outside of 03. Never makes it past 1st round as a real player. Him and Yao never seemed to reach their potential together and the Rockets suspiciously overperformed whenever one got injured.

Alonzo Mourning - Case for: One of the best defensive centers remaining, as elite shotblocker and 2x DPOY. Plays the right position to be defense first. Peaks at 2nd in MVP voting in 00 and 1st in 99 RAPM (ascreamingacrossthecourt). Solid 8 years before kidney problems, decent play in 02 and valuable few years as mega shotblocking backup C in 06 and 07. 20 point scorer with above average TS and has midrange floor spacing. Outstanding intangibles, he is both the anti-Dwight and anti-Gilmore in a way. Case against: Not a great offensive threat. Terrible passing numbers and assist to turnover rate. Visually a Meh scoring skillset. May have got the job done in the regular season but to win a title there needs to be a more dynamic offensive player on the team.

Dwight Howard - Case for: Excellent accolades in his time, finishing 2nd in MVP (and possibly deserving to win) and 2x 4th place and 1x 5th place. 3rd a few times in WS and peaks at 5th/6th in VORP. The consensus best defender in the league in his prime and offensively is a 20 point, highly efficient scorer who creates gravity on the pick and roll. The defense alone is highly valuable at center. Peaks at 5th/8th in RAPM. Case against: Poor intangibles, annoying manchild. Very poor passing center who turns it over, and a complete non floor spacer at C. Played in a perfect offensive fit for his style, with ahead of its time floor spacing giving him room inside to score and he has never been the same without it. His offensive skillset never fully passed the eye test. Defensive impact seemed to evaporate after Orlando. When looking at how much better a player like late career Mourning was on defense than post prime Dwight, is it a clue about their ability on that end in their prime?

Dolph Schayes - Case for: Terrific all around offense for his time. High volume scoring, highly efficient, good passing and one of the original floor spacing bigs. Quality longevity as still a relevant player (2nd team All-NBA) in his 12th season and production as late as 61 shows he wasn't just a product of pre shot clock. Defense is hard to gauge but he did well in DWS and finished 1st in the league once. A clearcut top 5 player for his time which many of the alternatives above were not. Won a title as best player. Case against: Played in mostly segregated era and has an antiquated shooting style. Doesn't appear to have had a good defensive skillset even if he was good for his time - he just played in weaker era.

Allen Iverson - Case for: Rated well in his time, MVP winner with two other top 5 finishes. Tremendous volume scorer, on ball playmaker which is high value offensive role. For an advanced stats lightning rod, is a respectable 42nd in VORP. Solid longevity compared to other options here, a solid decade. Made Finals with role players. Efficiency problems somewhat connected to context. Played on defense first team with terrible spacing, in pre handcheck rules era. TS improved in Denver when this was rectified. Imagine if he played with the spacing Harden has right now. Case against: Not a great advanced stats player. Rated as overrated by RAPM and WS on the whole. TS when it dips low enough in PHI makes it harder to say he's worth it. Weak defense. Poor intangibles. Very weak portability both for his style of game and his attitude.

Wes Unseld - Case for: Impact not captured by his boxscore. His outlet passes don't always end in assists, GOAT level screen setter and defends well without it showing up in blocks. More than his MVP, his Finals MVP averaging 9/12/4 looks even crazier in terms of impact he must have shown without stats. Even with that in mind, his boxscore is still decent, he finished top 10 in WS and VORP 5 times each. Fantastic intangibles. Relevant for over a decade. Leads his team to 4 Finals and a title. Case against: Very mediocre volume scoring threat when you take into account pace as well. Combined with playing center it's hard to believe he has a great offensive impact despite the passing. Never makes an all-defensive team. Never makes All-NBA after his MVP season or finishes higher than 8th in MVP again. As soon as he gets there Hayes is voted on as the best player on the team by MVP votes.

Paul Pierce - Case for: All time great longevity, he comes in relatively polished and is still a great player by his 15th year in the league, and even BKN/WAS version after that is starting caliber. 25th all in in WS, 23rd in VORP. Perimeter players who handles and passes well tend to rate strongly in ORPM. Good floor spacer. Strong playoff credentials. Good playoff career including in 08 going toe to to with Lebron and winning Finals MVP. Defense in Garnett era was solid. Case against: Arguable low peak for players here. Only finishes in top 10 in MVP voting once (7th in 09), his 2nd that season was also the only time he finished better than 3rd All-NBA. Only finishes top 10 in RAPM once (08). In his 26-27ppg season she played a lot of minutes to inflate his numbers. Difficult to build champion around him as #1.

Russell Westbrook - Case for: High peak dropping a crazy 32/11/10 MVP season. His last 2 seasons would've ranked high for peaks at this range too. Broke BPM/VORP. A monster talent who puts a ton of physical pressure on the opponent. Plays hard every minute. Has excelled as both 2nd option and 1st. Very good in the playoffs and has come out on the better end of several high profile PG battles. Case against: Rates as top 10 not top 5 peak in RPM. Average longevity, has been a star level player for 7 years, one of them he played 46 games in, and it's only the last 3 where he went to MVP level peak. Low portability both emotionally and style of play, is not taking a backseat to anyone and wants to shoot as much as possible. Mediocre 3pt shooting and floor spacing. Average TS throughout his career and turnover prone.

+ Kevin McHale - Case for: Strong peak, has a season where he drops 26/10 on elite efficiency and is 4th in MVP, 4th in WS, 8th in VORP. Has multiple strong WS finishes due to his efficiency. Rated a good defender and makes 3 1st team All-Defenses. Offensive game scales to playoffs well with his "unstoppable" post skillset. Pretty good longevity with 10-11 year value. Case against: Low passing, non floor spacing big man, neither of which translates to great impact stats typically. Only has 1 season where he's voted on as a top 10 player basically using MVP or All-NBA.

+ Elvin Hayes - Case for: Strong longevity and perfect durability leading to high total career marks in points and rebounds. Rated as a star in his time with 2 3rd place MVP, a 5th and several other top 10s and makes 3 1st team All-NBA. Good defensive player and makes a few 2nd team all-defense. Successful in Washington and arguably most talented or best player on a champion, and making 2 other Finals. Case against: Underwhelming TS and a poor passer for his volume, which combines for only ok performance in stats like OWS or OBPM. Terrible intangibles, reviled by many teammates and coaches and has been compared to Chinese water torture, and has been called the worst person they've met in sports. Overall playoff stats are decent, but had choker reputation.

Vote Kevin McHale

I should have had him on my list earlier, I realize now how strong a case he has. Not perfect offensively because of the passing but high volume elite post scoring is still really good, and probably gets even more valuable in the postseason when you need that go-to ability against set defenses. Then he adds defensive value as an acclaimed defender at a big man position. I'm not that worried about accolades since it's hard in Bird's shadow

2nd: George Gervin

[janmagn]

Vote: Bill Walton
2nd vote: Kevin McHale

So... I'm the one to pick Walton first. Looking at it, he might be the biggest star to suffer from injuries. Without them he is already on the list. His peak was unbeliveble, so good that it counters his weak longevity. The difference he has to McGrady is that his dominance translated to wins. I also give respect and some points for him for making a nice career for himself after his injuries. He realized it wasn't possible for him to be a star anymore, so he sacrifized some of his own good for the sake of a team, winning championships and 6th man of the year in Boston.

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

[mikejames23]

Not surprised at all. We're fairly wide open. Part of the reason why I listed some 20 names in my considerations. Bill Walton will make the 11th name here, Lol.

[dhsilv2]

Not surprised at all. We're fairly wide open. Part of the reason why I listed some 20 names in my considerations. Bill Walton will make the 11th name here, Lol.

I feel like McHale is the next guy in, he's on a lot of people's second choices. I'm not liking this, not because I don't like McHale but if someone gets in without a first place vote?

I'll take this as my issues with mchale and see if anyone can explain why I'm wrong.

The celtics were to a degree a 3 tower team. They basically had 3 guys who were low post scorers all be it perhaps wrong to say that about Bird, but lets just say bird was more of a center than a "wing" as we thought of them really even in the 90's. I think of him as a Tim Duncan or Hakeem type where yes he had small forward skills (they had power forward skills), but he also had the build and skills of the 4 or a poor choice for a 5 of that era. The best team comp I can think of would be an old school version of the second likers run with Kobe. Gasol, Odem, bynum.

A lot of fluff to get to the point which is that McHale was a darn darn good ball defender, but he wasn't that great as a help defender. This is important to note because as we know today, that's a more important skill than ball defense and it was back then too. I believe his 6 all defense selections were a big factor in his perceived greatness so I want to put that into perspective. I think he got a bit more credit there than deserved.

Moving on, the guy only started 400 nba games. He will I believe by not just a bit but by seasons be the fewest game starter to get in and again we're ranking him over about 6 MVP's here! We have even more defensive player of the years still not even getting considered. Speaking of awards, I believe he'll be the first player selected with only 1 all nba selection (other than Gilmore who got in based on ABA play). Are we really at this point ready for guys who only made a single all nba in their career?

Advanced stats

Career VORP 83rd. Career winshare 58.

1 top 10 VORP year and 5 top 10 WS years. 3 top 10 PER years ( don't use the raw numbers much anymore).

So I have to ask, if a guy who the majority of his career came off the bench (I know I'll get flack in 10 spots when i start pushing for Manu), was a 1 time all nba guy, and had an average to below average career length...and he's in before....

Cowens 1 MVP, 3x All NBA, 2x NBA champ, 3x all defense, 8x allstar, 766 games
Reed 1 MVP, 5x all nba, 2x NBA champ, 2x finals MPV, 1x all defense, 7x allstar, 650 games
Wes Unseld 1 MVP, 1 all nba, 1 nba champ, 1 finals MVP,5x allstar, 984 games
George Gervin 7x all nba (2x all aba), 12x allstar, 791 NBA games (1060 combined)
D Howard 8x all nba, 5x all defense, 3x DPOY, 8x allstar, 954 games

I could honestly do another 20 players. Cousy, Iverson, Westbrook, Walton, Arizin, Schayes, Sam Jones (who at this point I'd have thought would have had some mentions), Pierce....well you get the point.

There are a lot of impressive resumes that are without question better than McHale's, now the resume and cover letter are just for the interview, and that's what I feel like I'm missing. I have McHale above a lot of the above players, but if I'm reading their resumes, the majority of those above would be higher on my list if you will. Even his teammate Parish who he was imo better than, he's got as good or better of a resume. 4x champ, 2x all nba, 9x allstar. 1611 games! 82 is MVP share matched McHale's best both at 4th in the voting.

I like McHale and he's my next power forward unless someone changes my mind (and I'm I think pretty open in general), but I feel like we've got a lot of other positions to fill in.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Thoughts on Cousy, Billups, Miller, Gervin, Tmac, Mourning, Dwight, Schayes, Iverson, Unseld, Pierce, Westbrook from last thread:

Spoiler:

Bob Cousy - Case for: Superb longevity. He is still a 2nd team All-NBA level, all-star in his 13th season. Highly regarded by his peers with all his All-NBA, wins MVP, and in 1980 which is about the halfway point for this project is one of 11 players selected for the 35th anniversary team ahead of some contenders here like Barry and Frazier. Being one of the best slashers of his era and the best passer are both high value offensive roles. Helped Boston to 1st ORTGs when he was the best player. Case against: Played against mostly segregated players in his prime. Being the best guard passer in a poor passing league doesn't necessarily mean he was better at it than future players. Weak TS leads to disappointing OWS and WS production, never finishes higher than 8th/9th in WS. The Celtics dynasty was predicted to collapse without him but they did just fine. Likely overcredited in his time for Boston's offensive success, noting that this was a time where they didn't know any better than to think whoever scored the most points had the best offense, eg. in Cousy's MVP year they had the 5th highest ORTG but scored the most points easily so they may have credited the offensive player as the driving force.

Chauncey Billups - Case for: Combination of passing, getting to the line and free throw line all of which is highly valuable on offense. Somewhat ahead of his time in appreciation for his skillset and value of 3pt spacing. Very good boxscore player with a few top 5s in WS (3rd/5th) and other top 10s and solid but would do better in VORP if his defense was rated better as it probably should've been. Leads Pistons to some strong seasons even without Ben Wallace. Iverson for Billups trade looks terrific for his case with his impact on the Nuggets both as a player and leader and Pistons decline without him. Case against: Ok longevity with about 8 strong years. Good but not great RAPM career, mainly peaking later in his prime. Felt less talented than other players in contention here. Not rated a superstar in his time, not even a star on the level of players like Pierce, Allen and Kidd. His reasonable MVP/All-NBA career somewhat misrepresents the lack of real star labelling there was for Billups. Seen somewhat like the game manager QB on an elite football defense, great at it, but still a game manager. Doesn't necessarily "put pressure on the defense" athletically.

Reggie Miller - Case for: Increases his stock in the playoffs where he is on several occasions a killer. Game translates to playoffs well since he can create open shots by movement. Outstanding longevity and durability and still has value late in his career as floor spacer. 17th in career WS. High floor spacing effect that he know better now than they did in the 90s the value of. Solid passing stats and ability to get to the FT Line, not just a spot up shooter. Good RAPM support. Case against: Shockingly little accolades in his time, not just missing MVP and All-NBA but all-star games half the time. Difficult to make the case he was ever a top 5 player, even in the stat that loves him WS he never finishes top 5. Limited RAPM sample also has him as very good but more of a fringe top 10 guy.

George Gervin - Case for: One of the best offensive careers left, leads the league in scoring 4x and a highly efficient scorer and leads good offenses and contenders. Considered a superstar on his time, 2x 2nd and 1x 3rd MVP finishes and 5 straight 1st team All-NBA. Case against: The Harden of his era on defense, probably worst top 50 defender if Harden doesn’t get in. Only finishes top 5 once in WS and peaks at 6th in VORP in NBA. Mediocre passing for his scoring volume, playmaking is typically critical for high offensive impact for a guard.

Tracy McGrady - Case for: Amazing statistical peak in 2003 right up there (9.7 BPM!) that’s up there with any Kobe season. Great playmaking wing increasing his value throughout his career along with high volume scoring. Good playoff performer. Case against: Weak longevity and health. Poor intangibles and often seemed half asleep. TS average outside of 03. Never makes it past 1st round as a real player. Him and Yao never seemed to reach their potential together and the Rockets suspiciously overperformed whenever one got injured.

Alonzo Mourning - Case for: One of the best defensive centers remaining, as elite shotblocker and 2x DPOY. Plays the right position to be defense first. Peaks at 2nd in MVP voting in 00 and 1st in 99 RAPM (ascreamingacrossthecourt). Solid 8 years before kidney problems, decent play in 02 and valuable few years as mega shotblocking backup C in 06 and 07. 20 point scorer with above average TS and has midrange floor spacing. Outstanding intangibles, he is both the anti-Dwight and anti-Gilmore in a way. Case against: Not a great offensive threat. Terrible passing numbers and assist to turnover rate. Visually a Meh scoring skillset. May have got the job done in the regular season but to win a title there needs to be a more dynamic offensive player on the team.

Dwight Howard - Case for: Excellent accolades in his time, finishing 2nd in MVP (and possibly deserving to win) and 2x 4th place and 1x 5th place. 3rd a few times in WS and peaks at 5th/6th in VORP. The consensus best defender in the league in his prime and offensively is a 20 point, highly efficient scorer who creates gravity on the pick and roll. The defense alone is highly valuable at center. Peaks at 5th/8th in RAPM. Case against: Poor intangibles, annoying manchild. Very poor passing center who turns it over, and a complete non floor spacer at C. Played in a perfect offensive fit for his style, with ahead of its time floor spacing giving him room inside to score and he has never been the same without it. His offensive skillset never fully passed the eye test. Defensive impact seemed to evaporate after Orlando. When looking at how much better a player like late career Mourning was on defense than post prime Dwight, is it a clue about their ability on that end in their prime?

Dolph Schayes - Case for: Terrific all around offense for his time. High volume scoring, highly efficient, good passing and one of the original floor spacing bigs. Quality longevity as still a relevant player (2nd team All-NBA) in his 12th season and production as late as 61 shows he wasn't just a product of pre shot clock. Defense is hard to gauge but he did well in DWS and finished 1st in the league once. A clearcut top 5 player for his time which many of the alternatives above were not. Won a title as best player. Case against: Played in mostly segregated era and has an antiquated shooting style. Doesn't appear to have had a good defensive skillset even if he was good for his time - he just played in weaker era.

Allen Iverson - Case for: Rated well in his time, MVP winner with two other top 5 finishes. Tremendous volume scorer, on ball playmaker which is high value offensive role. For an advanced stats lightning rod, is a respectable 42nd in VORP. Solid longevity compared to other options here, a solid decade. Made Finals with role players. Efficiency problems somewhat connected to context. Played on defense first team with terrible spacing, in pre handcheck rules era. TS improved in Denver when this was rectified. Imagine if he played with the spacing Harden has right now. Case against: Not a great advanced stats player. Rated as overrated by RAPM and WS on the whole. TS when it dips low enough in PHI makes it harder to say he's worth it. Weak defense. Poor intangibles. Very weak portability both for his style of game and his attitude.

Wes Unseld - Case for: Impact not captured by his boxscore. His outlet passes don't always end in assists, GOAT level screen setter and defends well without it showing up in blocks. More than his MVP, his Finals MVP averaging 9/12/4 looks even crazier in terms of impact he must have shown without stats. Even with that in mind, his boxscore is still decent, he finished top 10 in WS and VORP 5 times each. Fantastic intangibles. Relevant for over a decade. Leads his team to 4 Finals and a title. Case against: Very mediocre volume scoring threat when you take into account pace as well. Combined with playing center it's hard to believe he has a great offensive impact despite the passing. Never makes an all-defensive team. Never makes All-NBA after his MVP season or finishes higher than 8th in MVP again. As soon as he gets there Hayes is voted on as the best player on the team by MVP votes.

Paul Pierce - Case for: All time great longevity, he comes in relatively polished and is still a great player by his 15th year in the league, and even BKN/WAS version after that is starting caliber. 25th all in in WS, 23rd in VORP. Perimeter players who handles and passes well tend to rate strongly in ORPM. Good floor spacer. Strong playoff credentials. Good playoff career including in 08 going toe to to with Lebron and winning Finals MVP. Defense in Garnett era was solid. Case against: Arguable low peak for players here. Only finishes in top 10 in MVP voting once (7th in 09), his 2nd that season was also the only time he finished better than 3rd All-NBA. Only finishes top 10 in RAPM once (08). In his 26-27ppg season she played a lot of minutes to inflate his numbers. Difficult to build champion around him as #1.

Russell Westbrook - Case for: High peak dropping a crazy 32/11/10 MVP season. His last 2 seasons would've ranked high for peaks at this range too. Broke BPM/VORP. A monster talent who puts a ton of physical pressure on the opponent. Plays hard every minute. Has excelled as both 2nd option and 1st. Very good in the playoffs and has come out on the better end of several high profile PG battles. Case against: Rates as top 10 not top 5 peak in RPM. Average longevity, has been a star level player for 7 years, one of them he played 46 games in, and it's only the last 3 where he went to MVP level peak. Low portability both emotionally and style of play, is not taking a backseat to anyone and wants to shoot as much as possible. Mediocre 3pt shooting and floor spacing. Average TS throughout his career and turnover prone.

Vote Paul Pierce

When I looked at it closer I realized his longevity is tremendous. Yes he wasn't rated an MVP caliber player in his time, but the combination of scoring creation, spacing and passing is a high value offensive role for a wing and he showed he can defend in the right situation.

2nd: George Gervin

The thing is, not only was Pierce not an MVP candidate, but we got to see him as a #1, and he still wasn't a MVP level guy. he wasn't even a First Team All NBA guy. He was almost more of a Mitch Richmond level guy until the Celts suddenly got him big help. Tough, well rounded, played defense...but not transformative. Not enough to lift the franchise by himself.

These are the Celtics' records with Pierce as a solo star:
19-31
35-47
36-36
49-33
44-38
36-46
45-37
33-49
24-58 (missed half that season)

Now I am not the guy to say "see! See!! Loooozer!!" when a guy doesn't win solo. I largely consider the "win solo" thing to be a myth unless you are Top 10 all time. But I DO think its a problem when the best/only arguments being made for a guy and against his competitors is that they didn't win the big one. Well, of course they didn't. Neither did Pierce until it started raining HOFers in Boston.

So it's not like the Reggie situation where he was always on good teams and fans can just make up whatever they want to about his individual abilities. We know exactly what Pierce was. So why exactly do we bump Pierce up over much more decorated guys, true MVP candidates in their prime, like Gervin or Nique, just because he suddenly got lucky enough to play with several other HOFs? I'm sure Gervin or Nique would have loved to suddenly have '08 KG and Allen and Rondo show up.

And of course Iveson was a contemporary for Pierce's entire pre-Big Three career. Not ONCE, not one single time did Pierce finish ahead of A.I. in MVP voting up to and including the year the new Big Three Celts won it all in 2008. And Pierce was 30 at that point. So now we come along, not even a decade after these guys retire, and decide to rewrite all that? Pierce wasn't considered at A.I.'s level only 10 years ago, but now he is better? Because he suddenly got better teammates?


Longevity
Pierce does have good longevity, but is longevity minus production really a marker of "greatness"? If Player A is able to put up similar career numbers and achievements in 10 years that it takes Player B 15 years to accumulate...what has Player B done that is so much better? Clearly he wasn't as good year to year, and overall the accumulated contributions were similar. So what is "longevity" then other than "congratulations, you were slow in making your contributions"?

I mean, taking these 5 players' career totals (names provided underneath) can you tell me who the ones with "longevity" are, and who don't have it? And given the very similar overall stats is it a good thing the "longevity" players too so long to accumulate the stats that their MVP caliber peers accumulated in less time?

26595pts 5602reb 2798ast 1283stl 1047blk 2909TO
24369pts 3394reb 5624ast 1983stl 164blk 3262TO
25279pts 4182reb 4141ast 1505stl 299blk 2409TO
26397pts 7527reb 4708ast 1752stl 745blk 3532TO
26668pts 7169reb 2667ast 1378stl 642blk 2669TO

Names below with career averages and accolades:

Spoiler:

Gervin 25.1pts 5.3reb 2.6ast 12x All Star, 7x All NBA, .904 MVP Shares
Iverson 26.7pts 3.7reb 6.2ast 11x All Star, 7x All NBA, 1.567 MVP Shares
Miller 18.2pts 3.0reb 3.0ast 5x All Star, 3x All NBA, .003 MVP Shares
Pierce 19.7pts 5.6reb 3.5ast 10x All Star, 4x All NBA, .040 MVP Shares
Wilkins 24.8pts 6.7reb 2.5ast 9x All Star, 7x All NBA, .844 MVP Shares

If you hang around in the league longer, and your career numbers still only end up being roughly equal to guys who retired earlier, it logically means you weren't doing as much back in your prime as they were. IN particular when you are talking about guys who were contemporaries. That one always kills me.


I've noticed the Cousy voters seem to have largely dropped out. I think it would have been a good idea to show a little respect that way, but won't bother pissing in the wind for a bit. So slight change here:

40) Iverson
41) Westbrook

[euroleague]

I've noticed the Cousy voters seem to have largely dropped out. I think it would have been a good idea to show a little respect that way, but won't bother pissing in the wind for a bit. So slight change here:

40) Iverson
41) Westbrook

We're all still here. Just everyone is tired of wasting their vote.

Out of principal, and the fact that the ranking system will be meaningless if everyone just bandwagons 1/2 popular guys for their votes to matter, I'm still voting for Cousy...

but it's quite tempting to just drop out and Vote straight up for McHale here as he actually could get into the top 40 it seems.

[Outside]

Vote: Kevin McHale
Alternate: Dave Cowens

I'd planned on making an improved case for Nate Thurmond, but !@#$%^&*, I've run out of time again and won't have time before the thread closes. I'll make time this weekend.

[Copy/paste of info about McHale from the last thread]
My vote goes to McHale due to his great combination of offensive and defensive skills and being 2nd behind Bird on multiple championship teams. Longevity hurts him here due to injuries, but I don't dock him points for being a 6th man, which was still an honored and valued position for the Celtics. He may not have started games at that time, but he finished them.

Off the top of my head, Olajuwon is the only post player I can think of with better feet and post moves than McHale. He may have looked like a gangly collection of used parts, but he used his height and length effectively. Played on a well-balanced, unselfish team, which suppressed his stats compared to others who were stars on lesser teams. That's particularly true for rebounding, where his numbers look unmpressive, but his teams were consistently among the league leaders in rebounds, and he had great rebounding teammates in the frontcourt (Bird and Parish) plus good rebounding guards. Had a TS% of 60.5. One of the great power forwards of all time, and I would normally have him much higher than this, but guys like Malone, Barkley, Garnett, and Pettit have better numbers and/or longevity.

Like McHale, Cowens also suffers in the longevity department, and while he didn't have McHale's height and length, he combined excellent athleticism with passion and a non-stop motor to outplay taller opponents. A fierce competitor. But unfortunately, once the wear and tear accumulated and he started to lose that athleticism, his competitiveness was no longer enough, and the end came quickly. But for 7-8 seasons, he was a force of nature.

[ardee]

Crap I've been missing.

I would have to say Pierce, McGrady, Pau and McHale seem like the most accomplished players left. Will make a voting post tomorrow.

[LA Bird]

WRT Hayes vs. Unseld, I disagree with you for a couple reasons:

1) Unseld beats Hayes in regular season VORP/BPM every year but '74 & '81.

2) The above holds true for every playoffs as well except '74 & '78 (VORP only - Unseld still beats him on playoff scores)

BPM/VORP is just one stat though and since it favors player with a higher rebound*assist interaction term, it's not too surprising to see Unseld ahead of Hayes considering their difference in assists. Other HOF bigs with similarly low assists as Hayes don't look too good either in BPM/VORP - neither Moses nor Mourning ever topped 5 BPM in a season even though their plus minus stats (based on actual play by play data not box score derived) were among the best in the league. The biggest problem I have with BPM/VORP in this scenario is that they have Unseld as DPOY but Hayes as a merely good defensive player when it should be Hayes with the much higher DBPM.

3) Hayes is a big reason that he & Unseld have just 1 chip - they could've easily had 3 Championships but Hayes hurt them in both series.

The Bullet were 1-8 in the 75 and 79 finals. 45~46% TS is poor but league average was only 50% anyway and Hayes making 1 more FG a game to shoot above average is not going to easily win them those two series. I had Unseld ranked as the better offensive player anyway so those finals stats don't change anything - the difference between the two has always come down to defense where I think Hayes had a clear and decisive edge.