RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #58

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #58 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:54 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. ???

Go ahead.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#2 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:00 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Go ahead.
And Happy Halloween all!


Likewise! :lol:

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[I admittedly still can't believe they got away with that without getting fined...]
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:18 pm

1st vote: Allen Iverson

Here again are the WOWY findings from '99-'06.....
AVERAGE effect of having Iverson vs. not having him over these years:
NOT weighted for games played/missed
+7.3 ppg
+1.1% TS%
+2.3 ORtg
+4.61 SRS
WEIGHTED for games played
+7.4 ppg
+1.2% TS%
+2.5 ORtg
+4.21 SRS
Weighted for games missed
+7.1 ppg
+0.8% TS%
+1.4 ORtg
+2.90 SRS
39-59 record (.398) without, 251-193 record (.565) with (avg of +13.7 wins per 82-game season).

And again: '04 was a definitive outlier within this time period; he was playing banged up and performing well below his usual standard. If I can cherry-pick a little and remove that year from consideration.....
AVERAGE effect of having Iverson vs. not having him during '99-'02, '05 and '06:
NOT weighted for # of games played in each season
+7.8 ppg
+1.4% TS%
+3.0 ORtg
+5.49 SRS
WEIGHTED for games played
+7.7 ppg
+1.4% TS%
+3.0 ORtg
+4.81 SRS
WEIGHTED for games missed
+8.3 ppg
+1.5% TS%
+3.2 ORtg
+4.82 SRS
25-39 record (.391) without, 232-164 record (.586) with: avg of +16 wins per 82-game season.
^^^^Granted, these teams were mostly built around/for him (with varying degrees of success or competence); but still, this isn't the result of a cherry-picked season or two; this is the AVERAGE of SIX different seasons. And I think particularly interesting is the shift in TEAM TS% and ORtg (things critics assume he can't have had much positive impact upon, because his individual shooting efficiency is so pedestrian).


In terms of rate metrics, Iverson often isn't quite an apples to apples comparison to some other players, due to the extreme mpg he was typically playing. Here's comparison (looking at best 9-year spans) to some other wings with traction and/or already voted in:

Alex English ('81-'89): 21.5 PER, .139 WS/48, +2.3 BPM in 36.6 mpg
Dominique Wilkins ('86-'94): 23.2 PER, .173 WS/48, +3.5 BPM in 37.4 mpg
Manu Ginobili ('04-'12): 22.4 PER, .222 WS/48, ~+6.4 BPM in 28.7 mpg---->just want to point out that fatigue or pacing one's self is almost never an issue in these kinds of minutes for a conditioned NBA athlete.
Allen Iverson ('98-'06): 22.1 PER, .139 WS/48, +3.7 BPM in 41.9 mpg---->fatigue would become a nightly significant issue for most players (especially while shouldering his kind of usage), which would effect their rate metrics. His rate metrics are still slightly better than those of English, and only slightly behind those of Wilkins. Significantly behind those of Manu, though again there's more than an entire quarter of play difference in their respective playing times, so it's a bit hard to make the straight up comparison.

Iverson has better playoff rate metrics than all of the above except for Manu (again, though: minutes to be considered; and anyway, Manu's already voted in).


Manu soundly trumps all in terms of impact metrics, though I'll say again: impact is not player quality. It's player quality + role/fit/circumstance......and I do think Manu got the best of the latter category among pretty much everyone else on the table at this time. I must confess to worrying about his health/longevity in other settings, too, fwiw.
Impact measures are also rate metrics, too, don't forget (again referring to his limited minute role). Iverson's average impact to scoring margin per possession or minute could be only 70% of Manu's, but he'd still be having a marginally bigger impact per game due to the extra minutes.


2nd vote: Elvin Hayes

Hayes had poor shot selection, though as I've stated for others of his era (or earlier), I feel compelled to give him a partial pass on that as an entire generation of basketballers didn't seem to recognize good shot selection. From the games I've watched, Hayes was an excellent finisher around the rim, respectable offensive rebounder, made his FT's at a respectable rate for a big man, and was a decent outlet passer in his own right during his Bullets years (overshadowed by Unseld here).
He was always a very good rebounder and defender during his prime, and let's not forget an utter ironman: missing just 9 games in 16 seasons.
His poor shot selection (and resulting mediocre shooting efficiency) hurts his WS/48 metric, and yet he's still 47th all-time in career win shares in ABA/NBA-combined history.

In short, I think we're past [perhaps well-past] the point where his negatives remove him from valid candidacy.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#4 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:38 pm

Vote 1 - Adrian Dantley

Vote 2 - Elvin Hayes

As I took a closer look at english vs. dantley, english had a slightly longer prime and better durability. However, dantley still had a substantial prime in his own right, and his 29.6 PPG on 63.2% TS and .205 WS/48 from 80-86 is pretty staggering. He was also a better playoff performer in similar sample size. I admittedly came away more impressed with english’s skill set as a scorer (just more fluid and gervin-esque in my opinion), but you can’t argue with results, either.

One other point of reference: as a rookie in 77, dantley scored 20.3 PPG on 60.1% TS. The league average TS% that season was 51.1%.

I then look at the controversy with dantley leaving DET and them winning the championship following his departure, and it seems overblown. Dantley’s averages in the 88 finals (loss) are as follows:

21.3 PPG, 5 RPG, 2.3 APG, .6 SPG, 57.3% FG, 85.6% FT, 67.6% TS, 127 ORTG

Games 6 and 7 of the 88 finals were decided by a total of 4 points, and this was with a substandard game 7 by the injured isiah thomas. If he’s healthy, they very well could’ve won the title that year. I don’t hold the turn of events against dantley all that much relative to general perception.

Some great research here by Moonbeam on Dantley and other star SFs of the 80s:

Moonbeam wrote:I love looking at these guys because most of my favorite players are small forwards, and it was such an exciting time to watch, as these guys were each capable of amazing offensive outbursts.

Spoiler:
One thing I've taken a hard look at is how to weigh up offensive statistics in the context of team offense. There has been a fair bit of discussion in the Top 100 poll about how to gauge individual performance based on team performance (e.g. Garnett's Minny teams did not generally excel on defense, how to compare Kidd's team offenses to Payton's given teammate quality), so I tried to come up with a rough model of expectations for team offense.

I used offensive win shares as the basis for this analysis. I know many aren't happy with OWS, but on a team-level, it is very strongly correlated with offensive rating, which is a good measure of overall team offensive performance. I looked at all regular season data from 1977-2014 to come up with a set of aging curves to encompass different types of peak shapes. I've used five different levels of peak sharpness and five different peak ages (21, 24, 27, 30, and 33), which makes it possible to model a player's career based on OWS/48, like this:

Image

This is a very simple approach, but I wanted something specific enough to broadly capture the relationship between offensive production and aging, but not too specific as to produce perfect models - I'm interested in the deviations from expectations, after all, so I'm happy with a bit of noise. :)

Based on these curves of expected OWS/48, I then looked at team offense relative to expectations as judged by total OWS. I'm still looking to road-test this analysis, so if you know of any instances where you felt a team overachieved or underachieved its talent level, I'd be eager to check it against my model!

I parsed out performance relative to expectations for each of these players plus Larry Bird (in >28 MPG seasons) and their respective teammates as a whole. Why 28 MPG? I wanted to include enough seasons to get a big picture view, plus I wanted to avoid discontinuities where I could (e.g. Bernard King's 1988 season). Here are the resulting plots of player OWS, player expected OWS, teammate ("help") OWS and expected teammate OWS:

Image

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Over this span, here are the MP-weighted averages for player OWS, % of team OWS, both rate and raw difference of help OWS to expectations:

Code: Select all

Player   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre  5.112  0.166    1.018      +0.428
Bird     7.429  0.220    1.048      +1.056
Dantley  8.803  0.394    0.844      -2.155
English  6.536  0.246    1.016      +0.307
Johnson  5.954  0.253    1.040      +0.636
King     4.466  0.269    0.887      -1.413
Wilkins  6.084  0.255    1.015      +0.260
Worthy   5.065  0.155    1.116      +2.809


On the surface, it looks like Dantley (and to a lesser extent, King) may be getting their Win Shares somewhat at the expense of teammates, while Bird and Worthy are associated with boosts for their teammates. How much praise (or blame) should be apportioned for performance of teammates is up for debate, but I think it at least provides a framework for comparison.

Taking a look at the 5-year intervals in the OP:

Code: Select all

Player  Years   WtOWS   %Off  Help Rate  Help Diff
Aguirre 84-88   5.920  0.187    1.041      +1.005
Bird    84-88   9.933  0.302    0.989      -0.257
Dantley 80-84  11.213  0.553    1.083      +0.606
English 82-86   7.849  0.268    1.026      +0.548
Johnson 79-83   7.192  0.275    1.057      +0.984
King    81-85   6.675  0.323    0.919      -1.268
Wilkins 86-90   7.835  0.270    1.158      +2.891
Worthy  86-90   6.465  0.180    1.181      +4.496


Dantley is clearly the leader in both OWS and percentage of team offense (some of those supporting casts in Utah look dreadful), but perhaps he didn't provide the "lift" as others (or worse, perhaps his presence deflated his teammates offense). If we split his career into phases, it seems his early career is where his teammates fared the worst (0.731 rate, fit issues with Lakers?), while in Utah they performed nearly to (awful) expectations (0.968 rate), while in Detroit during 87-88, the rate fell to 0.801 (problems of fit with Isiah?), and across 89-90, it was 0.935.

I don't think Worthy's help numbers are attributable to him so much as they are to Magic, but he clearly fit into Showtime quite well. Wilkins looks like he could have provided decent lift across 86-90, and Aguirre's apparent issues with teammates did not seem to affect his teams' offenses.


I've got H2H stats I can post later, but I thought I'd put this out there as it's a fascinating comparison for me. :)


Entire discussion here:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=41264223#p41264223
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#5 » by pandrade83 » Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:48 pm

1st Choice: James Harden
2nd Choice: Tracy McGrady


Harden's starting to turn into Reed in the way he's lost a couple run-offs in a row. He's arguably the highest non-Walton peak left.

I think everyone knows the arguments for Harden - this is a recent player so unless you're not paying attention to current basketball, you understand the case for. I'll tackle the case against instead.

Longevity - he has 7 high impact years; so there's a solid base there and his impact in Houston has been a very strong peak/prime - imo, the best left.

Defense - He sucks at this and I'm not going to try and defend it. The only thing I will say is that it's already baked into the team performance and in spite of this he was able to . . .

Lead a Team - Your supporting cast doesn't suck just because you don't play with another all-star. But Harden is the straw that stirs the drink for that team. He allows those 3 point shooters to shoot at a high rate, he allows Capela & Harrell to get the looks they get & he allowed Beverly to be Beverly last year. The team's depth is (imo) why the RAPM data looks the way it does, & I felt that the way he was able to lead the team last year & a couple years back when they made the WCF was very impressive.

Playoff performance - I ding him all time time about his game 6 v Spurs & the '12 Finals. Let's look at those runs in fuller context:
Last year he averaged 29-9-6 58% TS in the playoffs. The 5 TO per game is a bit alarming - but still - pretty strong.

Let's look at '12:

16-5-3 on 61% TS. And as bad as he was in the Finals, I think he was their 2nd best player against the Spurs in the WCF that year.

When we take into consideration the massive peak, and that he has a few years on the same order of magnitude - just not as high - I'm comfortable putting him in here.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm out of the country so this is going to be quick for T-mac. The arguments for are pretty straight forward - the massive peak, the outstanding 8 year run, leading league in OBPM twice, etc.

The elephant in the room - the only reason he's not in right now is the first round thing.

Here's what his playoff #'s look like during his Orlando/Houston time:

30-7-6. I know the TS% isn't ideal (52%) but still - look at that again. Were some of the series winnable? Of course. That's why he's not in the Top 50. But it's time. With 30-7-6, it's time to give him a real look.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#6 » by penbeast0 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 12:30 am


Vote Alex English
Alt Dave Cowens


Alex English v. James Harden and Tracy McGrady.

There comes a time when you have to give a player credit for being an outstanding reliable player who gives you good effort every day and that every day is every day for over a decade. This is English, it is not either James Harden or Tracy McGrady.

All were good scorers, Harden and TMac peaked higher in terms of volume but in short peaks where they dominated the ball to an extreme degree. English had no year where he matched the sheer volume of Harden's 17 season or TMac's 03 but he was a consistent high volume scorer averaging almost 25ppg for a full decade. And, he did it within the confines of a spread, passing offense similar to what Golden State has had such success with.

And, in addition to English's highly efficient, high scoring, consistent offense that he produced for himself, he produced career years for a number of other players around him. Not just Lever and Issel (accounting for ABA/NBA differential) but Michael Adams was a marginal reserve when he came to Denver, playing in an offense that let him spam threes. Kiki Vandeweghe and Calvin Natt, two very different combo forwards, had career years playing next to English because he was able to provide the post up interior scoring that Vandeweghe lacked and the range to spread the floor that Natt lacked (when I saw Natt, he was most comfortable as an Adrian Dantley type post up combo forward). The Nuggests could play TR Dunn (think Andre Roberson with less range and more rebounding), they got career years out of journeymen centers like Wayne Cooper and Danny Schayes, very different stylistic centers. How? (a) an offense that spread the wealth and allowed each player to do what they did best and (b) English's ability to adapt different roles to cover the areas of the offense that those players were less adept at and still produce efficient offenses. I'm not implying that this is a Shaq effect case where English had gravity that warped defenses; but that his versatility extends his value beyond his admittedly outstanding numbers.

Further, English was one of the players universally acknowledged as a great teammate. He won the Walter Kennedy award for citizenship. In addition to his offense, he gave consistent effort on defense as well. Compare that to Harden, practically a byword for lazy defense in today's NBA, TMac, known for lazy practice habits and inconsistency that matched his brilliance, they are more in the Allen Iverson mode. I admire what Harden has accomplished (and actually love his ability to draw fouls as well as shoot threes, a great combination) but cringe every time I see him dog it on defense. Tmac had all the tools to be a top 20 player in NBA history but what bothered me about him is that he would only seem to be fully engaged and playing his best when his best teammates like Yao (or for his one truly great year, Grant Hill) were injured. Then he would suddenly turn himself into superman and carry his team singlehandedly but he never really seemed to get the whole team concept. English did; and made himself the consumate team player . . . outscoring the likes of Larry Bird, Dominique Wilkins, or James Worthy for the decade of the 80s while remaining unselfish and as close to ego free as any superstar I have ever seen. He deserves to be in before Harden (at least at this point in Harden's career) and Tmac.

Iverson also was good for a longer stretch than TMac or Harden but if I criticized them for less than consistent defensive effort and poor practice habits, that goes at least as strongly for Iverson who also had some teammate issues as well as needing to have isos run for him to be effective. Even in Denver, the offense was basically Iverson and Carmelo trading isolation attacks; neither Philly nor Denver lost a beat when they traded Iverson for a less talented PG (Andre Miller and Chauncey Billup) and Billups took them further in the playoffs.

Cowens may not have the stats of Lanier or Hayes but he is the one of the three I would take first. First, his defense is far better than Lanier and more versatile than Hayes . . . Hayes is a better shotblocker, Cowens better at defending out on the floor or after switches. Cowens also shows consistently better range and has very high intangibles though nowhere close to Hayes in longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#7 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 1:26 am

Vote Iverson

Iverson one of 2 NBA MVP's with a career long enough and with enough success for me (sorry Walton and Rose). I've been over in other threads my view on the value of getting to the basket both in terms of offensive rebounds and in free throws. He also was a better passer than I think he gets credit for. A part of this is that he didn't really have a lot of people around him to pass to at least until it was him and Melo and that was just a bad idea to start with.

Alt Cowens

I'm still open to changing this, but there's a good case for Cowens at this point. I've always been a bit suspect of him, in large part because I think Hondo was the better early on. Still he seems like the best player on the 76 team. 73 MVP along with 2 more top 3 MVP votes and another top 5. I'm not sure how many players left have that kind of MVP resume if any. Harden finished second twice and Iverson has more years getting votes but doesn't have the top 5's. Now the 70's are generally seen as a weaker era so again my willingness to look elsewhere. He's also a short career guy which hasn't done well here, but unless we're going to start propping up Carter who many long careers with star or close to star level play are left? I think we've cleaned out the long career guys outside of the volume scorers who I expect to dominate the 60-70 range on this list.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#8 » by pandrade83 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 11:37 am

@Penbeast - I had some concerns re English . . .

pandrade83 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
Vote Alex English
Alt Dave Cowens


Alex English v. James Harden and Tracy McGrady.

There comes a time when you have to give a player credit for being an outstanding reliable player who gives you good effort every day and that every day is every day for over a decade. This is English, it is not either James Harden or Tracy McGrady.

All were good scorers, Harden and TMac peaked higher in terms of volume but in short peaks where they dominated the ball to an extreme degree. English had no year where he matched the sheer volume of Harden's 17 season or TMac's 03 but he was a consistent high volume scorer averaging almost 25ppg for a full decade. And, he did it within the confines of a spread, passing offense similar to what Golden State has had such success with.

And, in addition to English's highly efficient, high scoring, consistent offense that he produced for himself, he produced career years for a number of other players around him. Not just Lever and Issel (accounting for ABA/NBA differential) but Michael Adams was a marginal reserve when he came to Denver, playing in an offense that let him spam threes. Kiki Vandeweghe and Calvin Natt, two very different combo forwards, had career years playing next to English because he was able to provide the post up interior scoring that Vandeweghe lacked and the range to spread the floor that Natt lacked (when I saw Natt, he was most comfortable as an Adrian Dantley type post up combo forward). The Nuggests could play TR Dunn (think Andre Roberson with less range and more rebounding), they got career years out of journeymen centers like Wayne Cooper and Danny Schayes, very different stylistic centers. How? (a) an offense that spread the wealth and allowed each player to do what they did best and (b) English's ability to adapt different roles to cover the areas of the offense that those players were less adept at and still produce efficient offenses. I'm not implying that this is a Shaq effect case where English had gravity that warped defenses; but that his versatility extends his value beyond his admittedly outstanding numbers.

Further, English was one of the players universally acknowledged as a great teammate. He won the Walter Kennedy award for citizenship. In addition to his offense, he gave consistent effort on defense as well. Compare that to Harden, practically a byword for lazy defense in today's NBA, TMac, known for lazy practice habits and inconsistency that matched his brilliance, they are more in the Allen Iverson mode. I admire what Harden has accomplished (and actually love his ability to draw fouls as well as shoot threes, a great combination) but cringe every time I see him dog it on defense. Tmac had all the tools to be a top 20 player in NBA history but what bothered me about him is that he would only seem to be fully engaged and playing his best when his best teammates like Yao (or for his one truly great year, Grant Hill) were injured. Then he would suddenly turn himself into superman and carry his team singlehandedly but he never really seemed to get the whole team concept. English did; and made himself the consumate team player . . . outscoring the likes of Larry Bird, Dominique Wilkins, or James Worthy for the decade of the 80s while remaining unselfish and as close to ego free as any superstar I have ever seen. He deserves to be in before Harden (at least at this point in Harden's career) and Tmac.

Lanier is a similar case to English. Classy individual who was often slightly in terms of accolades due to the deep level of competition from other players on more talented teams and who was dominant for a decade. I prefer English because his effort was more consistent and he showed more in terms of teammates playing their best ball which speaks to English's leadership and versatility. Cowens was consistently rated ahead of him when they played despite Lanier having better numbers because defense matters, particularly for a big.

Iverson also was good for a longer stretch than TMac or Harden but if I criticized them for less than consistent defensive effort and poor practice habits, that goes at least as strongly for Iverson who also had some teammate issues as well as needing to have isos run for him to be effective. Even in Denver, the offense was basically Iverson and Carmelo trading isolation attacks; neither Philly nor Denver lost a beat when they traded Iverson for a less talented PG (Andre Miller and Chauncey Billup) and Billups took them further in the playoffs.



The more I look at English, the players you reference and their ages, I'm more convinced that the #'s bump they received has more to do with the pace than English.

Natt was 28 and while he sets a career high in scoring, his TS% falls.
Kiki maintains comparable efficiency when going to Portland until his injury; he has better volume in Denver, but that seems to be a byproduct of the pace/system.
Adams hits year 3 his 1st year in Denver but doesn't really peak until English is a non-factor.
Cooper has his best year in blocks (by a lot) in Denver, so I wonder if the other improvements aren't correlated.
Danny Schayes spent almost his entire prime years in Denver (Year 2-9, 23-30); it makes sense that he was at his peak in Denver.

Then I look at the team success - good - but not great - in the decisively weaker conference.

He's clearly very good and he has strong longevity compared to most remaining. If he's my 2nd best player, I feel good about my team. But there's guys left who are real needle movers in terms of their peaks. There's still guys left with WS +15 seasons, VORP +7, PER +30, best player on Title Teams, etc.

I need to have those guys go off the board for me personally.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#9 » by trex_8063 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 3:48 pm

Where are people at on Elvin Hayes at this point?

Poor teammate qualities anecdotes abound, poor shot selection (albeit partially in an era where that issue was endemic); but otherwise a considerable amount of defensive and rebounding value (pretty good interior scorer, too, when he didn't resort to his turnaround), and ironman longevity/durability. Principle piece on multiple contenders, high rank in multiple statistical categories, competitive in terms of accolades, etc........Clyde and I the only ones willing to give him some traction here?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#10 » by pandrade83 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 5:48 pm

after harden/McGrady get in, I'm debating him/cowens/kj. I'm aware that's about as different kind of candidates as you can get.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#11 » by penbeast0 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 7:03 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Where are people at on Elvin Hayes at this point?

Poor teammate qualities anecdotes abound, poor shot selection (albeit partially in an era where that issue was endemic); but otherwise a considerable amount of defensive and rebounding value (pretty good interior scorer, too, when he didn't resort to his turnaround), and ironman longevity/durability. Principle piece on multiple contenders, high rank in multiple statistical categories, competitive in terms of accolades, etc........Clyde and I the only ones willing to give him some traction here?


I am willing to listen in terms of Hayes v. Cowens and he does belong somewhere in the top 100 but if you had come to me either in the 70s or today, knowing what I know now to build a team in the 70s, I'd have taken Dave Cowens first. Hayes does have outstanding health and longevity but I value Cowens's intangibles and leadership more (as well as like his offensive game better).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#12 » by mikejames23 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 7:30 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Where are people at on Elvin Hayes at this point?

Poor teammate qualities anecdotes abound, poor shot selection (albeit partially in an era where that issue was endemic); but otherwise a considerable amount of defensive and rebounding value (pretty good interior scorer, too, when he didn't resort to his turnaround), and ironman longevity/durability. Principle piece on multiple contenders, high rank in multiple statistical categories, competitive in terms of accolades, etc........Clyde and I the only ones willing to give him some traction here?


Torn somewhat. I am thinking I'll toss my vote for Iverson but the Alt is tough. One part of me feels Hayes should've been in when Unseld got in, and then the other part is not really impressed. It feels like an obligatory consideration rather than a guy that actually is screaming I SHOULD BE IN RIGHT ABOUT NOW. In his own era there's Dave Cowens. Then there's a couple others... English, Nique. He's not as good of a player as James Harden. He might out-longevity T-Mac, but IMO still falls short of T-Mac's 3 year best. Sidney Moncrief should be in at some point but Hayes likely has a better resume, for now.

IIRC Elgee's numbers had him as an all time great defender. That's likely my strongest reasoning for a pro case here. He seems good enough offensively to carry some load (think those players are more and more rare at this point) and along with his longevity you'd give him a vote somewhere in the next 5 spots. I'll probably ignore personality as Iverson is my lead candidate anyway.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#13 » by Owly » Wed Nov 1, 2017 7:35 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Where are people at on Elvin Hayes at this point?

Poor teammate qualities anecdotes abound, poor shot selection (albeit partially in an era where that issue was endemic); but otherwise a considerable amount of defensive and rebounding value (pretty good interior scorer, too, when he didn't resort to his turnaround), and ironman longevity/durability. Principle piece on multiple contenders, high rank in multiple statistical categories, competitive in terms of accolades, etc........Clyde and I the only ones willing to give him some traction here?

My take on Hayes, not so much pluses and minuses for him, as areas where I'm more and less favourable than "conventional wisdom" (as I percieve it).

Positive
Defense: I recall the last version of this project being surprised by how effective Hayes seemed to have been on defense. It's hard to know for sure of course, but he blocked shots and accrued steals, but played on consistently strong (above average) defenses including the expansion San Diego Rockets (and whilst I'm reticent to draw confident conclusions on team level data, it is consistent over time ...). And he got accolades at the time. I think this has been pushed to the back of the case for him, replaced by more eye-catching but less useful or frankly valuable contributions.

Intangiables: Not that these were "good". But the narrative may have been one-sided. Obviously some stuff, like Fitch's comments on him in regards to Sampson, seem pretty damning. Read through year by year and besides moody and grating you also see "he is by far the most civic minded of the Bullets, eager to make public appearances, many without payment" (from 1979 Complete Handbook of Pro Basketball, though that type of refrain is often repeated in the series) and he was consistently in superb shape and motivated (this is occasionally somewhat set in contrast with Unseld's apparent indifference to basketball, though obviously he gave a lot of his body, setting picks, working back from injuries) which helped allow him the longevity. There are some flattering comments from Motta, such as after his first year, saying the critics were wrong on Elvin, that he had been "easy to coach". To be clear I'm not saying he's good here (I think it may have been tough to be his teammate), just maybe not as bad as sometimes made out or, more specfically, not without positives.

Negative
Raw box-score production: He played huge minutes. He shot a lot. So he scored a lot. The boxscore metrics suggest that after factoring in efficiency, he wasn't all that productive on a per-minute basis (and there's only so much value in the win shares or EWA that take you up to average). See the below.

The semi-tangiable: Having listed areas that largely can't be counted, as positives (versus conventional wisdom). There's things that can but often aren't. Hayes missed a ton of shots, rarely passed and in my head I had him as somewhat turnover prone, though that may be harsh based on the seasons we have (though he appears to have been more conservative in the Motta years, so it's possible he was so, earlier in his career). That means a lot of counting numbers in game that I'm not sure is conducive to a good offense.

I don't know where all that would leave me on him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#14 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Nov 1, 2017 8:02 pm

I am leaning towards Vince here. Vince has an excellent offensive skillet (Athleticism, shooting, passing, feel) that fits well with others and has a solid decade of longevity and a good role player career. I think he has less weaknesses than Dantley (ball stopper/chemistry), English (defense/pace), Iverson (efficiency) and better longevity than some candidates like Harden. Cowens was very successful but I think he benefitted from a weaker era.

Vote Vince Carter

2nd: Dave Cowens
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 9:41 pm

Thru post #14:

Allen Iverson - 2 (dhsilv2, trex_8063)
James Harden - 1 (pandrade83)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)
Vince Carter - 1 (Dr Positivity)
Adrian Dantley - 1 (Clyde Frazier)


Probably just slightly less than 24 hours left before this one is pushed to runoff.

Spoiler:
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#16 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 9:51 pm

Cowens has crazy support here but is everyones alt. kinda crazy.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 10:32 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Cowens has crazy support here but is everyones alt. kinda crazy.


Yeah, tempted to switch him to primary so he can get into and win runoff just to get a lot of new ideas as alts.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#18 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 10:33 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:Cowens has crazy support here but is everyones alt. kinda crazy.


Yeah, tempted to switch him to primary so he can get into and win runoff just to get a lot of new ideas as alts.


Manu had a round like this before. Honestly, if Iverson didn't have 2 firsts I'd consider doing the same. I think when half the voters have someone as an alt, that guy should be in a the runoff.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#19 » by mikejames23 » Wed Nov 1, 2017 10:54 pm

Vote: Allen Iverson
Alt: Dave Cowens




Thinking of my Pick, Allen Iverson.

Outside of James Harden or T-Mac's injury ridden career. this is the strongest candidate in my head. He's one of the three weak MVP's on board. Two of them I am picking here, and I'll likely throw a vote for Cowens very soon.

Went through Iverson's 76ers tenure, 00-07.

00 - Theo Ratliff/Tyrone Hill were his other options. It was a Larry Brown team, really wasn't enough to get past a quality team. I actually liked Iverson led team producing 49 Wins this season. Not necessarily impressive, but without him, this team appears to be broke. BTW, for those saying Iverson is not a creator, his supporting players do just fine on the team - McKie, Hill, Ratliff etc. were all having their best scoring years in Philly.

01- This is the legendary season, and I think outside of Harden, I don't trust too many on board to make this sort of run. It was something special. Granted with Mutombo, Snow, etc. he had great defensive support.

02 - Iverson missed a good amount of games this year, and the team faced a decent amount of missed games between McKie, Snow, Coleman, etc. Still scraped 43 Wins and lost an entertaining series to Pierce's Boston.

03 - Iverson had some decent scoring outside him for once (Van Horn) and they 76ers were made the 2nd round, but got bounced out in a tough series to Detroit. Regardless he was responsible for making the run interesting and as I noted earlier Iverson was so integral to everything that he had an average of .2 minutes rest this entire series. Van Horn was unable to deliver his ~16 point average in the RS and fell woefully short in this series.

04 - Missed playoffs. Iverson only played 48 games this season. The 2nd best scorer, Robinson, only played 42. The 76ers were a lost cause this year.

05 - The 76ers acquired C-Webb, but he only was dealing with various injuries and delivered a 95 O-Rating in the first round. This was another of those 43-39 type seasons.

06 - Iverson was surrounded by a remodeled supporting cast. C-Webb was back, but this really proved to be a bad fit with Iverson. In addition to this, Webber had turned into a horrid defender (he was a -2.4 in RAPM which was one of the worst totals in the league, David Lee level defense), and with Snow/Mutumbo gone, there was no one to make this up for this, so it ended up being a chaotic 38 W type total for the 76ers.

07/08 with Melo - I think most agreed that Iverson only helped his image here. Unfortunately his prime was on its tail end and by the Laker series in 08 he confessed in his interview that he wasn't feeling the same fire anymore.

Really analyzing his cast, players like Snow, McKie, Mutmbo, Tyrone Hill, Van Horn pretty much played up to their ability and their numbers didn't suffer a significant dip. His tenure in Denver only raised his opinion in most people's eyes and overall with the 76ers he performed around expectations. 7 years is a pretty long time to be with the 76ers management, and he certainly made the most out of what he got. Even his "good" supporting cast seasons relied on him heavily enough to play him ~48 MPG when good team matchups rolled about. Going by his team construction, I would say he never underachieved. It was always at expectations or above.

All in all I am comfortable taking him here.



So for Dave Cowens.

With Willis Reed, this really felt like a back to back type of choice. Unseld, Reed, Hayes, Cowens are roughly in the same league even if they seem to be voted some 10-15 spots apart on this list. Cowens only falls short of Reed because of his scoring. It was sometimes very MEH for a Top 50s all timer. He made it up with his defense, rebounding, passing and virtue of being on good to great teams - he had some help with guys like JoJo White, Havlicek etc. but also managed to overcome Kareem/Oscar bucks or stiff competition from other bigs such as Thrumond, McAdoo. There seems to be only pro-Cowens material on intangibles, leadership etc. as he just seemed to fit in with the flow. Actually interesting he's one of the 5 greats to be on the list for leading his team in all 5 major stat categories. Cowens like Hayes and most 70s bigmen were very capable of handling tough physical play, and this was likely the reason his career ended a tad earlier than it should have. Anyway, not much to say about him beyond this.

Pop compared to Aaron Baynes to Cowens recently, for what it's worth. Hope he pans out. I would love to have more modern day comparisons for retro players.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #58 

Post#20 » by Outside » Wed Nov 1, 2017 11:57 pm

Ready to re-engage after a business road trip and miscellaneous hoo-ha that followed. Trying to catch up, but it's interesting to see who got in in the interim. Sadly, it looks like multiple threads went by with minimal participation by the group, but I suppose that's the nature of the project.

As for who is left on the board and in the discussion...

Iverson. Gets a lot of credit for dragging the 2001 Sixers to the finals (and winning a game over those juggernaut Lakers), but he has a surprisingly light playoff resume overall. Has various negatives that drag him down, such as defense and efficiency, but the most damning thing for me was how he was basically abandoned by the league after 2009-10 despite being only 34 and still seemingly able to play, partly because he wasn't willing to transition to a lesser role and partly because teams didn't want to deal with his baggage.

Elvin Hayes. like Iverson, another interesting mix of pluses and minuses. Impressive accumulation of stats over a long career, but poor efficiency and poor leadership/chemistry marks. Production that's hard to ignore, but he's tough for me to place because of those negatives.

Adrian Dantley. Okay, I guess everyone in this range is hard to peg. Dantley could score and had a nice peak. Negatives: ball-stopper, mediocre longevity for his era, only made the playoffs in seven seasons and only once during his peak production, being traded away for Aguirre is what put the Pistons over the top.

James Harden. Superb offensive skills, excellent production once he left OKC and became a featured player. Negatives: horrific defense, playoff stats overall look good but he has repeatedly performed poorly in the most important playoff situations. I cannot even begin to consider him until we go through a bunch of guys who made a mark as playoff performers.

Tracy McGrady. His pluses are apparent. I downgrade him significantly for never winning a playoff series. That automatically drops him 20-25 spots on the list for me.

Alex English. Excellent scorer, nice peak. Negatives: poor defense, stats perhaps inflated by the Doug Moe run-and-gun style, never seemed a serious threat to any of the true contenders of his era (more entertaining than dangerous).

Dave Cowens. MVP and main player on multiple championship teams -- are there any guys left who match that description? Excellent rebounder. The ultimate undersized overachiever who played with passion and grit. Negatives: weak longevity, efficiency, production fell off a cliff once he lost his athleticism.

Vince Carter. Very good production, impressive career totals built through excellent longevity, has shown ability/willingness to adapt his game and role late in his career, well-regarded character guy, particularly in the second half of his career. Negatives: was more of a me-guy early in his career, his Toronto teams underperformed in the playoffs during his peak as a featured player, amassed stats during his peak on teams that weren't serious contenders.

Vote: Nate Thurmond

Alternate: Dave Cowens


It's disappointing to see Nate drop this far. Looking at how almost everyone else evaluates players, it's based on metrics that aren't available for Thurmond, so all that's left is evaluating him on his offense, where the one metric that is available, shooting efficiency, is the weakest part of his resume. His rebounding gets discounted because of the era, blocks and steals weren't recorded, on/off data isn't available, defensive impact isn't available for individual players and team defense is good but doesn't stand out because his teams had relatively few good defensive players.

He was among the very best all-time at individual defense, team defense, shotblocking, and rebounding, and he is acknowledged as an excellent leader and teammate.

He made it to the finals twice, with Wilt in his rookie season where they lost to the Celtics (a team Russell has called the best he played on) and in 1967 where they lost to Wilt's Sixers (who set the record for wins that season and a team considered among the best of all time).

He is one of the very few to have his jersey retired twice, by the Warriors and the Cavs. The retirement by the Cavs is the more instructive one for my argument, because he only played parts of two seasons there at the end of his career, yet his leadership and character were considered crucial to creating a winning team. Thurmond didn't play much and wasn't near the player he'd been previously -- 17.4 MPG, 4.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG -- but the team hadn't been to the playoffs in the five seasons since they entered the league, and Thurmond was instrumental in turning them around. He taught them how to win.

From a description of the "miracle at Richfield" team:

The principals in the four-player trade were Nate Thurmond and Steve Patterson. Thurmond, 34 and on the downside of what turned out to be a Hall of Fame career, was playing out of position at the high post for the Bulls.

Patterson, 27. was the high-post passing center Bulls coach Dick Motta sought. Thurmond, from Akron Central High and Bowling Green, brought more than rebounds and blocked shots to the young Cavaliers.

"The first time Nate walked into our locker room,'' said Fitch, "he had the respect of everyone on our team."

The Cavaliers were 6-11 and going nowhere when Thurmond arrived. They went 43-22 the rest of the way to finish the regular season 49-33, setting up the best-of-seven playoff series against the Bullets.

Playing 17.4 minutes a game behind Jim Chones, Thurmond averaged 4.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocked shots. Fitch occasionally put Chones and Thurmond on the court at the same time. Chones, 26, was in awe of Thurmond.

"I loved playing with Nate,'' Chones said, "because you didn't have to rebound. See, Nate got every rebound. There were no offensive rebounds for the other team, because Nate got every defensive rebound.

"When the ball went off the rim, you just turned around and started going the other way. I learned so much from Nate. He had arrogance. He was cool, just one of those old cool guys."


From the statement by the Cavs when Nate died:

Nate’s jersey hangs in the rafters at The Q because of the unselfish way the Akron native and Hall of Famer approached the game we all love, the teammate that he was, his profound impact on one of the most special seasons in Cavaliers history, and the way that all translated on and off the court to reflect the 'All for One. One for All.' code. Just as Nate always held the Miracle team, the Coliseum crowds and his local roots dear to him, the Cavaliers franchise will always love and respect him as a true Cavalier legend.

This for a guy who played for them only a season and a half at the end of his career.

I truly wish we had the stats to back up my argument about his defensive impact. A few stats that I do have:

-- NBA record for rebounds in a quarter - 18
-- One of only four players with 40 rebounds in a game (Russell, Chamberlain, Lucas)
-- One of only five players to average 20 rebounds for a season (Russell, Chamberlain, Pettit, Lucas)
-- One of only five players to average 15 rebounds for a career (Russell, Chamberlain, Pettit, Lucas)
-- 10th all time in career rebounds
-- Averaged 15.0 points and 15.0 rebounds for his career
-- Five consecutive seasons averaging 20 PPG
-- One of only four players to record a quadruple-double
-- First team All-Defense twice, second team three times (All-Defense not recognized until his 6th season)
-- Six seasons with MVP shares, including 2nd in 1966-67 (behind Wilt, ahead of Russell, Robertson, and Rick Barry)

I'm really sorry that his shooting efficiency was a couple of points under league average. Nate Thurmond was much, much more than that.
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