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Game 12: Tampa at Lambeau - Noon - Fox

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rilamann
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Re: RE: Re: Game 12: Tampa at Lambeau - Noon - Fox 

Post#241 » by rilamann » Tue Dec 5, 2017 12:16 pm

RRyder823 wrote:
WRau1 wrote:
Lippo wrote:so who wants to calculate all the sceanrios .... who gets in a 3 or 4 way tie at 10-6 or 9-7, etc

Falcons
Packers
Panthers
Seahawks
Lions

we have breaker over Hawks
Falcons have it over us

YBD - Panthers & Lions


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/upshot/green-bay-packers-nfl-playoff-picture.html

So winning out gives them a 93% chance. Not bad.

That's one hell of an algorithm though. I like it

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You have to pick the rest of the games, I picked the Packers to win out and it said 93%, after I picked the rest of the games it went to 0% which sounds about right.

The Packers are 2 games behind the team currently in the 7th spot (ATL) with 4 games to play, the Packers might have a 93% chance if they let 8 teams in.

If we're talking about winning out and %'s , that loss to the Steelers probably dropped us from like 80% to %5.
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Re: RE: Re: Game 12: Tampa at Lambeau - Noon - Fox 

Post#242 » by WRau1 » Wed Dec 6, 2017 3:10 am

rilamann wrote:
RRyder823 wrote:

So winning out gives them a 93% chance. Not bad.

That's one hell of an algorithm though. I like it

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You have to pick the rest of the games, I picked the Packers to win out and it said 93%, after I picked the rest of the games it went to 0% which sounds about right.

The Packers are 2 games behind the team currently in the 7th spot (ATL) with 4 games to play, the Packers might have a 93% chance if they let 8 teams in.

If we're talking about winning out and %'s , that loss to the Steelers probably dropped us from like 80% to %5.


IIRC, the Packers win out and all currently favored NFC teams win, we have about a 62% chance of getting the 6th seed. The 5th seed is something like 23%.
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Re: RE: Re: Game 12: Tampa at Lambeau - Noon - Fox 

Post#243 » by trwi7 » Wed Dec 6, 2017 4:24 am

rilamann wrote:You have to pick the rest of the games, I picked the Packers to win out and it said 93%, after I picked the rest of the games it went to 0% which sounds about right.


:lol:

Yeah, if you picked the Packers competitors to win every game they needed to win. You can pick the opponents to win every game that puts the Packers at <1% to get into the playoffs and you can pick the opponents to lose every game that's needed to get them >99%. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle with the small chance that every team we need to lose could win or every team we need to lose will lose.

If the Packers win out, there's a very good chance they make it to the playoffs. Lose to the Browns and there's still a 20-40% chance because it's not a conference game. Lose to the Vikings and there's still a small chance if pretty much every other game breaks our way. Lose to the Panthers or Lions and we're pretty much done.
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