2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[ThunderBolt]

Gee, I don't know. I don't even know what to do with them at this point. Would a coaching change be enough? When you look at the data, they are mediocre accross the board save for some stuff they're doing pretty well

At this point, i dont know. I think eventually after the season ends things may start to leak about more internal issues. Dononvan is what he is but as you mentioned, there are some things that aren’t his fault. I’m not sure there is a coach out there that will get through to Westbrook and others to change how they play. I think it’s too late for that. Change would be interesting but I’m not sure it would be successful. I’ve made no secret about what I want this franchise to do, but if that doesn’t happen then I’ll settle for ‘interesting’.

[Pillendreher]

Gee, I don't know. I don't even know what to do with them at this point. Would a coaching change be enough? When you look at the data, they are mediocre accross the board save for some stuff they're doing pretty well

At this point, i dont know. I think eventually after the season ends things may start to leak about more internal issues. Dononvan is what he is but as you mentioned, there are some things that aren’t his fault. I’m not sure there is a coach out there that will get through to Westbrook and others to change how they play. I think it’s too late for that. Change would be interesting but I’m not sure it would be successful. I’ve made no secret about what I want this franchise to do, but if that doesn’t happen then I’ll settle for ‘interesting’.

I still maintain the opinion that you don't need to give Russ a complete makeover. You do have to adjust his game a little bit imo, but even little adjustments can make a hell of a difference. DeRozan isn't playing all that differently, but his team is playing much better compared to previous years.

If they were to find a coach who can get Russ to understand that some of these 'I'm feeling myself' shots are not helping and is able to build an offense that maximizes both Russ' ability to create havoc and his teammates abilities, we'd be way better than this. When your point guard can't shoot 3s and all the rest of the team does is stand around and watch, it's going to be hard to score consistenly. His % at the rim and from midrange are above his career average his season, but you got to find a way to punish defenses for playing off of him. They can do that, because everybody just stands around all the time and they don't have to guard anybody, actually. Fix that and you're fixing a lot of stuff offensively.

[slick_watts]

They can do that, because everybody just stands around all the time and they don't have to guard anybody, actually. Fix that and you're fixing a lot of stuff offensively.

we tried this early on in the season and it did not work. remember when westbrook had 25 usage? it was horrible. westbrook plays one way and that's the only way.

[Pillendreher]

They can do that, because everybody just stands around all the time and they don't have to guard anybody, actually. Fix that and you're fixing a lot of stuff offensively.

we tried this early on in the season and it did not work. remember when westbrook had 25 usage? it was horrible. westbrook plays one way and that's the only way.

First off: His USG% never dropped below 30 on a month this season and has been hovering around 33-35 % all season long:



His sweetspot seems to be right around ~32-34 USG%: When he's at that level, our Team ORtG with him on the floor is 115.3 and his individual TS% is 56.2. When his USG% is >= 35: 107.4 ORtG/52.1 TS%. When his USG% is <= 31.8: 110.5 ORtG/50.7 TS%.

Secondly: What I'm talking about does not include him not being our 1st option anymore. He needs to be.

Thirdly: Of course Russ not taking shots like what you're implying (btw: He was below 25 USG% in 3 games this season) is hurting the team because then he just stands around and doesn't do anything. That's why I've said that all this static 'Let me watch my teammate try something' bs has to stop.

[slick_watts]

They can do that, because everybody just stands around all the time and they don't have to guard anybody, actually. Fix that and you're fixing a lot of stuff offensively.

we tried this early on in the season and it did not work. remember when westbrook had 25 usage? it was horrible. westbrook plays one way and that's the only way.

First off: His USG% never dropped below 30 on a month this season and has been hovering around 33-35 % all season long:



His sweetspot seems to be right around ~32-34 USG%: When he's at that level, our Team ORtG with him on the floor is 115.3 and his individual TS% is 56.2. When his USG% is >= 35: 107.4 ORtG/52.1 TS%. When his USG% is <= 31.8: 110.5 ORtG/50.7 TS%.

Secondly: What I'm talking about does not include him not being our 1st option anymore. He needs to be.

Thirdly: Of course Russ not taking shots like what you're implying (btw: He was below 25 USG% in 3 games this season) is hurting the team because then he just stands around and doesn't do anything. That's why I've said that all this static 'Let me watch my teammate try something' bs has to stop.

russ had 20+ tov the first 10 or so games of the season. he wasn't shooting as much, trying to get everyone else involved. his usage is inflated by those turnovers. it was different, and clearly wasn't working. there was plenty of movement, plenty of trying to get other guys shots, but it made westbrook suck. that's not going to change.

your usage split with ts% and team ortg is lol-worthy.

westbrook said it himself 'this is who i am'. he is not changing.

[Pillendreher]

we tried this early on in the season and it did not work. remember when westbrook had 25 usage? it was horrible. westbrook plays one way and that's the only way.

First off: His USG% never dropped below 30 on a month this season and has been hovering around 33-35 % all season long:



His sweetspot seems to be right around ~32-34 USG%: When he's at that level, our Team ORtG with him on the floor is 115.3 and his individual TS% is 56.2. When his USG% is >= 35: 107.4 ORtG/52.1 TS%. When his USG% is <= 31.8: 110.5 ORtG/50.7 TS%.

Secondly: What I'm talking about does not include him not being our 1st option anymore. He needs to be.

Thirdly: Of course Russ not taking shots like what you're implying (btw: He was below 25 USG% in 3 games this season) is hurting the team because then he just stands around and doesn't do anything. That's why I've said that all this static 'Let me watch my teammate try something' bs has to stop.

russ had 20+ tov the first 10 or so games of the season. he wasn't shooting as much, trying to get everyone else involved. his usage is inflated by those turnovers. it was different, and clearly wasn't working. there was plenty of movement, plenty of trying to get other guys shots, but it made westbrook suck. that's not going to change.

You are correct - his FGA per 100 poss. went up after the first couple of weeks. But still doesn't change what I'm saying: I never said he needed to shoot (significantly) less. That's not what I'm talking about.

your usage split with ts% and team ortg is lol-worthy.

I'm glad you laugh when you don't have anything to say.

westbrook said it himself 'this is who i am'. he is not changing.

[slick_watts]

I'm glad you laugh when you don't have anything to say.

you call the sweet spot 32-34% usage and one of your splits is 35% usage and up. don't think i didn't notice this.

i didn't say it, he did.

[getrichordie]

Since the asg, Ferguson is 11/26 from three, 42%.

That’s good that he’s showing improvement. I just really hope that he adds 10 lbs to his frame this offseason. It would greatly benefit him.


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[getrichordie]

J.A. Sherman on WTLC:



Despite my ragings and occasional meltdowns, I don't consider myself a pessimist when it comes to this win. They can play like crap today and I still expect them to win the very next day, no matter the opponent (or at least I hope they do). But man, this season is getting to me. I was dreading watching the Nuggets game. The 4th quarter pulled me back in, but then of course they again stop defending and lose yet another one. Cheering for them this season is such a weird experience: So up and down all season long. Everything looks like such a struggle. The highs are so high, the lows are so low.

It kind of makes you wonder if ownership would even let Presti give George a max.

Gee, I don't know. I don't even know what to do with them at this point. Would a coaching change be enough? When you look at the data, they are mediocre accross the board save for some stuff they're doing pretty well:

-Points off turnovers: 1st
-2nd chance points: 1st
-Fast break points: 3rd
-Points in the paint: 19th
-Opp points off turnovers: 2nd
-Opp 2nd chance points: 22nd
-Opp fast break point: 10th
-Opp points in the paint: 8th

-eFG%: 19th
-FTr: 9th
-TOV%: 12th
-ORB%: 1st
-opp eFG%: 17th
-opp FTr: 16th
-opp TOV%: 1st
-opp ORB% 17th

-Catch and Shoot eFG%: 15th
-Pull Ups eFG%: 27th
-FT%: 29th
-PTS% on drives: 19th

-Passes: 30th
-Secondary assists: 26th
-Assists adjusted: 27th

-Adjusted ORB Chance %: 2nd
-Adjusted DRB Chance %: 25th

How much of that is on the coach, how much is on roster contruction and how much is on the players themselves? Is a coaching change enough? An offensive system (of any sort really) would certainly help. Somebody who's not willing to throw games because he got this idea in his head that something that has never worked, will suddenly work. Somebody who's actually capable of using guys who can shoot. Etc. We've talked about this quite extensively.

But besides that, there are also things wrong with this team that can't be blamed on just Donovan. A team with this kind of experience (the only reasonably young guys in the rotation currently are Abrines, Ferguson and Grant) should not look unfocused and energyless this often. They should not play like the world owes them success. They should not suddenly become bad free throw shooters. They should be able to put away close games, because they've been there before. They should not be this unbelievably inconsistent.
Now I know a lot of this screams 'Westbrook', but it's not just him. He's not the only guy on this team. He's the guy leading the pack, of course, so he needs to lead by example, but it can't just be him.

If I were to create a sort of 'roadmap', it would probably look like this (let's assume George gives us another chance'):

-Fire Donovan and find somebody who knows how to utilize what's on the roster, but who's also somebody players respect.
-Put him to work as soon as Donovan is gone and revamp this team. Don't need to play like the Warriors, but put somebody around the guys on the team that maxes them out.
-Move Melo to bench. It's the natural move at this point.
-Find guys who are able to make fts and open 3s.
-Install a defensive system that doesn't just rely on forcing turnovers, but also helps us guarding against the 3.
-Involve everybody. No more 'You be you' bull. This has to be a team effort.

Is that possible? I don't know. I guess the only way is if they find somebody with enough experience, charisma and reputation to really pull our 'Big 3' with him.

What kind of offensive system do you think would benefit Russ the most? I find it hard to think of one better than the motion offense that Donovan does run, despite everyone saying he doesn’t.

What’s a system that maximizes Russ’ strengths which are driving to the rim and getting into the paint, collapsing the defense, and kicking it out, and scoring in transition and operating as a 1-5 P&R ball handler. I mean, I keep hearing people say we need a offensive system. Well, which one would work better and why?




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[Pillendreher]

I'm glad you laugh when you don't have anything to say.

you call the sweet spot 32-34% usage and one of your splits is 35% usage and up. don't think i didn't notice this.

So? You know damn well I'm citing a rough number. I looked at 20 % percentiles within his games and the 40th-60th percentile produced the best numbers for both team and player:

[Pillendreher]

I find it hard to think of one better than the motion offense that Donovan does run, despite everyone saying he doesn’t.

Exuse me - what? You're saying we're running a 'motion offense'? The team that is known for standing around all the time? Thats a 'motion offense'?

[bondom34]

I’m not even sure we miss the playoffs if we lose out. Clippers and pelicans both lost too last night.

J.A. Sherman on WTLC:

Really, the only answer remaining is whether OKC’s 2017-18 experiment will fail in part, or in full. Either way, I’m tired.

Despite my ragings and occasional meltdowns, I don't consider myself a pessimist when it comes to this win. They can play like crap today and I still expect them to win the very next day, no matter the opponent (or at least I hope they do). But man, this season is getting to me. I was dreading watching the Nuggets game. The 4th quarter pulled me back in, but then of course they again stop defending and lose yet another one. Cheering for them this season is such a weird experience: So up and down all season long. Everything looks like such a struggle. The highs are so high, the lows are so low.

That line from Sherm is exactly how I feel.

And lol motion offense.

[getrichordie]

Just going to leave his here. This is what I have been saying all year long.

Please watch all of it and keep an open mind. I know everyone hates Colin, but he has his facts straight on this one.

https://www.facebook.com/TheHerd/videos/2186019294952591/


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[bondom34]

Yeah that's a hard pass. I'm somewhere between not trusting Colin because of his racist stance and his "John Wall is bad because the Dougie" and well....every other bad take he's had. Hint: its all of them.

[getrichordie]

I find it hard to think of one better than the motion offense that Donovan does run, despite everyone saying he doesn’t.

Exuse me - what? You're saying we're running a 'motion offense'? The team that is known for standing around all the time? Thats a 'motion offense'?

Do you understand what a motion offense is? You might not see it fully utilized because of the personnel we have doesn’t really fit it well. It’s a simplified version (again, due to lack of appropriate personnel), but yes there is a system. A lot of you just don’t like it. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a system because you don’t like it. It just means you think there is a better system out there to be ran, but I’m still waiting on suggestions on what offense would have benefited this group more this year.


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[bondom34]

We're still waiting to see the "system"

[Pillendreher]

Do you understand what a motion offense is?

Yes. Do you? When you're 29th in touches per game, 29th in distance covered on offense per game and 28th in average speed on offense, there is no 'motion'. Everybody who watches Thunder games can tell you that 60 % of our lineup at any given time doesn't do ****. Standing around is the opposite of being in motion.

You might not see it fully utilized because of the personnel we have doesn’t really fit it well.

Donovan has already gone through 36 total players in the 3 seasons he has been here. What are the chances this so called 'system' can't be run with 3 different rosters?

It’s a simplified version (again, due to lack of appropriate personnel), but yes there is a system.A lot of you just don’t like it. Doesn’t mean there isn’t a system because you don’t like it. It just means you think there is a better system out there to be ran, but I’m still waiting on suggestions on what offense would have benefited this group more this year.

'Give the ball to Russell and let's see where it takes us' is not a system.
'Let Enes post somebody up and you watch' is not a system.
'Let Jerami draw fts' is not a system.
'Everybody don't move, we don't want to spook the opponent' is not a system.
'Just give Paul/Kevin the ball and let him struggle to do anything while you bench guys give him space' is not a system.

Donovan's 'system' is relying on individual players to carry his lineups. That's the so called 'system'. Running some weave every two weeks is not a 'system'. The bench passing around the perimeter because they can't create a shot is not a 'system'. Running the Hawk set twice per game even though everybody knows what's coming is not a 'system'.
Donovan's 'system' looks like the way I play NBA 2K when the plays break down and nothing is happening: Run a PnR and see where that takes us.

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

And that's why I said he should have done this months ago. How is this gonna work then if he does not want to do it now? 'Hey, Carmelo, we didn't want to play you according to your performance in the regular season, but it's game 6 of the first round, have a seat'.

I hear you dude and I agree in a vacuum (that is, removing the imbalance in power between star players and inexperienced coaches) that Donovan would have been better off setting the table on this earlier in the season. But the key phrase to me in that tweet is "if Melo wasn't Melo" - well, he IS Melo, so saying "if he wasn't, then they'd do this" is just an exercise in futility.

the Thunder brought Melo in to start and have treated him like a big star from the jump - he enjoys tremendous respect from his teammates, especially Russ and PG, and he's being coached by a third year HC with very little NBA clout. A guy like Anthony has a huge ego and still has a superstar mentality and reputation around the league, no matter how deserving he is of that at this point in his career, and you have to tread carefully with him based on his past history.

Donovan wasn't going to start flexing his coaching muscle and benching him early in the season while the starters were still figuring out how to co-exist and run the risk of having a major locker room and media issue from Anthony. He did do it one time in November and then never did it again, so you have to believe there was some blowback there that the organization wasn't willing to risk going any further. I don't believe that a bigtime tinkerer like Billy would completely stop doing something like that unless there was a serious reason.

I thought trading for Melo was a bad move for OKC, but that's water under the bridge at this point. At this point his role is set and it's probably not going to change much unless his play continues to just slide off a cliff. I also think that the famous quote from that story about Donovan not defining his offensive role right off the bat is more an indication of the Thunder's approach to getting Melo to adapt ending up being a working strategy, rather than a serious coaching failure. Instead of bringing him in and having a relatively inexperienced coach telling him to change the way he's always played and fit into a complementary role that he'd never really been in before and might not be willing to accept, they pretty much just let him be regular Melo until he himself recognized that there needed to be a change and asked for guidance. Now that approach did put OKC in a hole through the first 20 games, so it definitely wasn't perfect, but I don't think it was the major blunder that a lot of people see in it.

Everyone on the outside could see what the Thunder needed from Melo from the start, but the problem is always going to be how far and fast can you push a guy who still thinks of himself as a top player in the league to change his ways from a 15-year career of always playing the same way? That's not nearly as easy as people think it should be and there is always going to be a point where the player thinks he's been pushed too far and pushes back. I think OKC has done a pretty good job, all things considered, of managing Melo and getting him to accept and adapt to his reduced role without crossing the line to having him become a problem or distraction in the locker room.

Read on Twitter

This is one of those things where I think being this 'cautious' towards him can backfire. He might have just done this to prove a point, but he did it regardless. Maybe don't treat your stars like children and see what happens. Work him them, not around them because you think what you want to do will backfire.

[spearsy23]

113.5 ortg with Westbrook on the court. As per usual the offense with Russ is not an issue. Defense without Roberson and offense without Westbrook is atrocious. I've never seen any other team that was entirely dependant on one player on both ends.

[anthony00]

113.5 ortg with Westbrook on the court. As per usual the offense with Russ is not an issue. Defense without Roberson and offense without Westbrook is atrocious. I've never seen any other team that was entirely dependant on one player on both ends.

and thats why i don't see why people are thinking about trading westbrook