Blonde wrote:I approach the Bagley vs. Jackson Jr debate the same way I approached Tatum vs. Isaac last year. Go for all NBA upside in the top 5, not superstar role player upside. Bagley’s ceiling is higher than JJJ, but his floor is lower.
I see it the other way. JJJ has a higher ceiling imo but floor is also lower. I think Bagley's floor is pretty high because he has natural scoring feel and ability but will be limited defensively. JJJ being so young has a ton of room to grow but will his offense ever be anything marginally above average? Will his defense translate into being a defensive anchor on a top 5 team? All I know is that Bagley can score and will very likely be able to score at the NBA level. I know JJJ is going to be a long project offensively (which may not pay off) and is defense is where he'll lift his ceiling but also lower his floor depending on how successfully he can adapt it to the NBA.
My problem with Bagley is that his defense could be traffic cone poor which is a problem when he's playing one of the big man positions. If you're a big man who can't play D, you're going to get exploited and when you're one of the last lines of defense, you become a detriment to team defense. On the other hand, at worst, JJJ might only be a 3PT shooter on offense which is still useable in many schemes.