NDave79 wrote:I've been doing a lot of research on Bagley lately and I've come to the conclusion that I think if he had been paired up with sort of the typical Duke stretch 4 (Battier, Dunleavy, Deng, etc.) as opposed to Carter, we would be looking at him in a more positive light in general. I realize in some ways playing next to Carter had some benefits and that Carter proved to be a solid college 3 point shooter, but the overall spacing of playing a 4 out offense and him playing the rim protecting role he was accustomed to from high school, would have made him look better overall imo.
Defensively, he was top 3 in the EYBL in blocked shots both in 2016 (ahead of both Bamba and JJJ) and 2017 and every scouting report I saw basically gave good grades on his defense. I think learning a new position on top of learning a new defensive system and just the jump from high school to college created a dynamic where he suffered. When your learning a new system, until you know it second nature, it's common to be a step slow and worse than when you were basically just playing on instincts imo. Even in the NBA, it can take a half a season or more for a team to effectively incorporate a new defensive scheme and these guys are already pros. I think changing his position, just made the transition a little to much for him to be ready to be an impact defender.
I think his rebounding would look even more impressive as he would naturally be in better position to rebound especially after they made the switch to zone where it seemed like he often ended up out of rebounding position due to his defensive responsibilities. Plus, he wouldn't be sharing rebounds with another big time rebounder.
Offensively, even though Carter developed a decent 3 point shot, a lot of the time the paint just looked crowded. The extra spacing of a more natural perimeter player would have helped Bagley quite a bit imo. Also, I think Bagley would have looked better playing against other teams centers where he could have utilized his quickness more (obviously, there were also times it benefited him posting up a smaller guy).
But to be fair, a lot of the top guys weren't exactly in perfect situations to show their game. Ayton playing the 4 as well; Bamba having so little shooting on his team; JJJ playing with a couple guys who were probably best suited to being bigs in college.
The main point of this post though, is that I think in a different scenario Bagley's defense might have looked a lot better.
Here's the thing with defense and Duke. K's man defense is out dated and it just sucks if Im being blunt. Over the last 6 seasons (not including this past one) Duke's defense has been ranked 79th or worse 3 times and top 25 just once. Now this past season Duke's defense I believe hit mid 80s, that is when K switched to zone and it ended up 9th. It's an outdated scheme and it just makes the players look bad, just look at Tatum last year. Everywhere pre draft I saw how much Tatum was a poor defender, but look at him this year, defense is one of his strengths. Tyus Jones was a horrific defender at Duke and now is a very good defender just a couple years in the league.
Basically my point is you watch one game of Duke trying to play man defense and it looks like 5 chickens running around with their heads chopped off. This is why last year I focused a lot more on just footwork and awareness when watching Tatum and all season long when he was at Duke I kept saying how good of a defender he was. This past year with this Duke team, same thing with Bagley. When they were still playing man, Carter was getting exposed left and right, Trent had no clue how to play team defense, Grayson couldnt keep his man in front of him to save his life. The whole time playing man I thought Bagley and Duval were the best defenders. I think Bagley is going to surprise a lot of people with his ability to switch and guard out on the perimeter. No doubt his rim protection was disappointing this year, but he was playing a lot out on the perimeter so he didnt get as many chances and the man defense was really focused on trying to funnel everything towards Carter (stupid idea). Again I dont think Bagley is a stud defender, but I think he was a fine defender last year as a freshman and I think he ends up being a good (not elite) defender that is versatile in the NBA.