lilfishi22 wrote:ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:I think the mistake implicit in this oft-repeated line of reasoning is thinking that efficient 20 PPG players grow on trees. They don't. Not in "today's NBA" or yesterday's or tomorrow's. There are several aspects of TJ's game the don't get enough credit. True, the kid isn't a facilitator. But he does get offensive rebounds and hustle points, he doesn't turn the ball over, and he gives ballhandlers an outlet for assists. He can be an integral part of a highly efficient offense if put in the right situation.
This line of reasoning exists only because TJ doesn't get any national attention, and soft-minded Suns fans let this affect their thinking. And the reason he doesn't get national attention is because he was unheralded coming out of college, and we haven't won any games. IMO, TJ is the player least responsible for this team's struggles over the last couple seasons. So it's all bull**** to me.
The latest BSOTS pod where they wanted to trade TJ+ for George Hill made me want to throw up. Whatever TJ failed to do for the Suns last season, George Hill failed to do for the King five times over. What foolishness. GTFOutta here with that noise.
Yeah I dunno about this
TJ ISN'T a useless player or that a semi-efficient 20ppg is an easy get either, that isn't the reason for the grim forward outlook. He's still young, still has potential he can tap into but after 4 seasons and after signing his extension, he *still* hasn't really addressed any facet of his weaknesses. He's increased his scoring production and amazingly kept the same level of efficiency but everywhere else he's been stagnant. That's also the other oft-repeated line which even I believed for the longest time; that he's efficient. He's
not inefficient but he's not really that efficient either by today's standards either. In today's world and probably tomorrow's NBA, efficiency is no longer based on raw FG%, it's dependent on the position (of course) as well as where the efficiency is derived from. A player who shoots .45 overall and .38 from the 3 while getting to the line for an efficient 80FT% is more efficient and valuable than a player who shoots .500 from the field but doesn't shoot 3's or get the line often, especially if they are a guard or wing.
From an efficiency standpoint, his TS% is lower than that of even Booker because he doesn't shoot the 3 and last season ranked 9th among Suns players who played over 500min for the season in FT rate. The ONLY thing carrying this narrative that he's an efficient player is that he scores at a good rate from 2P%. For comparison these were his TS%'s since his rookie season
.551
.549
.539
.541
.542 - career average
Those are pretty average efficiency. To compare again, Booker TS%'s since his rookie season below. Here's a guy that shoots .45% from the 2 for his career that is more efficient than TJ who in his 4 year career has shot a least 52% from within the arc. Even now Booker is only average from an efficiency standpoint.
.535
.531
.561
.542 - career average.
I'm not trying to prove Booker > TJ because that's obvious for any basketball fan but I amm just trying to highlight what is considered 'valuable' in today's NBA and going forward with regards to efficiency.
And aside from that one season which now appear to be flukey where he averaged .400 from the 3, he's gotten worse and attempts have gone down. He hasn't shown meaningful improvement from a defensive standpoint and despite Chandler and Len playing less minutes and Big Sauce out the entire season, his rebounding rate and overall rebounding averages have gone down.
So you're right in that players that average 20/6 on ok efficiency don't grow on trees. But big C's who average 20/10 on .52FG% doesn't either. Do you know whose stats those were? Peak Vucevic. Sure they don't grow on trees but they also just aren't nearly as valuable as they once were. He's still scoring at above the Suns TS% but he's scoring at under league average efficiency. Limit it to only forwards and he doesn't fare too well there either from an efficiency standpoint.
He's not a bad player, as you mentioned he doesn't turn the ball over, he's an above average offensive rebounder at his position, he shoots near .500 from the field which has value and he's signed for to an OK contract. But he's certainly not as efficient or as valuable as you might think he is. And even if he's not the reason for a lot of our issues, he hasn't really proven to be an answer either when two of our biggest issues is defense and shooting and he addresses neither.
I've mentioned I think TJ can improve from 3 and likely will, but I don't think unless you have improved, you should just launch 3s. You have mentioned (I think) that you trust JJ is more likely to improve from 3 because he more willingly shoots them. I don't think that's necessarily accurate or a good thing. Westbrook has been a pretty terrible 3 pt shooter his entire career yet he launches a lot of them. He shot over 34% 2 years ago on 7.2 apg, but like you said, even that only equates to about 51% from 2, which is basically below league average TS%. But that's his absolute best year. He normally hovers around 30% and I've read multiple times that he should stop launching these 3s and that he is is by far the leader in history of attempts with that bad of a percentage or less. I think it's good to have a decent number of attempts if you can hit around 33-34%, but you should really only be launching a ton of them if you are over 38% or so.
Funny thing is, JJ reminds me of a Westbrook version of a SF. And I like Westbrook and his fearlessness. Westbrook is historically a great FT shooter though so you'd think he would do better from 3. JJ is not....I don't know if I want him launching that many, and I don't want TJ launching that many either unless they get to a respectable level.
I think to a certain point, allowing your players to launch them is good, and encouraging them to is good, but I think they really need to work on improving in the offseason, and you need to enter the season letting them go for it, but ultimately it's not good to have them launch too many if they are not falling after a number of games. Defenses will just sag off anyway because they want them to shoot them and not have Booker, Bridges, Ariza, Bender, or Anderson shoot them. We have plenty of guys now to space the floor finally. Theoretically Reed should, and of course Daniels if he plays much.
The confidence a guy like JJ has can end up being a little wreckless...and it has worked against Westbrook too in big moments, taking a shot when he could give the ball up for a better one...particularly in that series against GS when he was still playing with KD. TJ hesitates because he knows it's not a good shot for him now...he knows you need to be feeling it. I think he has a mental block with 3s, and I hope Igor works with him to remove it.
It was interesting...while people were talking about Rubio here I went to the Utah board to see what they were saying about him and there is a recent pod about how Snyder yanked Rubio after he missed like 6 shots....and he had been shooting horribly the last 6 games or so and really most of the season to that point. And then he came back (maybe after halftime...and I wonder if Igor got into Snyder's ear) but in front of the whole team Snyder said to Rubio "You know, I looked back at the tape, and I shouldn't have yanked you....those were all good shots" and it empowered him and for the rest of the season he shot like 47% from 3 and thrived with the team. Those types of stories I find interesting....I'm sure it's the type of thing Igor brings with him.
It's in the Rubio appreciation thread there....the pod is linked and even the time they talk about it is mentioned...like the 27 minute mark or something...you only have to listen to like 5 minutes of the pod to get the story.
Anyway, Rubio, always a good FT shooter, they said this was the first time a coach empowered him to shoot from distance instead of encouraging him not to. Part of me thinks Igor had something to do with this and I think he can do the same with someone like TJ who hesitates...maybe..
I don't think JJ needs any more of a green light to shoot or take it to the rim. He doesn't lack confidence in doing that. He needs to learn to pick his spots better though. I noticed when it was posted that Chriss was among the league leaders in missed dunks, Jackson wasn't far behind last year...and of those leaders both of those guys had some of the fewest attempts of the most, so their % of missed dunks was probably at the very top.
