Zach Lowe and Woj talk ‘pathetic’ Wizards on Lowe podcast

[gtn130]

What's the point of trading Beal for cap room and picks? There will never be cap room as long as Wall is on the roster and Wall doesn't have enough time in his career to wait for a rebuild through the draft.

Better to trade Wall, even if the return is much less. At least Beal and Porter are just 25 years old and are young enough to go through a rebuild.

Agree with this. There's no real upside in trading Beal - he's the best contract of the trio and is a great fit with this roster and virtually any roster, which is why he's so movable.

Wall's contract is going to be really bad. He's not the type of player who will have a super long career, and even at his current level he's already a negative asset because of that contract.

The move to make is Wall for Blake. It's a great fit for both teams and the salaries match. I'm really not a fan of Blake's game, but at this point the stakes are pretty low - this team is going nowhere.

[queridiculo]

If you say so; but know that Beal is likely to be moved in the next year plus.

Why don't take your arrogant posturing somewhere else?

[Jamaaliver]

Why don't take your arrogant posturing somewhere else?

The irony is that I came to commiserate with another fan base having a rough go under poor leadership.


That seems to have gotten lost somewhere. *And that's my fault.

This isn't an attack on Wiz fans. (Zack and Woj referred to your team as 'pathetic'. I did not.)
I'm certainly not gloating as a fan of a one of the worst run franchises in the Association.


There is hope, and it's linked to what your team can hope to get from a Beal trade. You guys have mentioned trading Wall -- an admitted negative asset due to his contract size -- and then building around Beal.

But there is another option no one wants to consider yet -- Moving Beal and building around what assets he could bring in return.

Your salary cap moving forward requires some serious reshuffling. We all agree there. The hard truth is that Beal is the most valuable trade chip. The most you could hope for Otto or Wall is a bit of a salary dump.

All hope is not lost because you have a desirable trade piece. Use that to build in an entirely new direction. (Players are no longer loyal to teams. Every summer we see this play out. Don't get blindsided by a Beal departure in Free Agency.)


NOTE: Hawks refused to trade our best player (Horford) and then watched him walk away for nothing in Free Agency. My team had to hit rock bottom before we got into our rebuild. I wouldn't wish that on any other fanbase.

[queridiculo]

Why don't take your arrogant posturing somewhere else?

The irony is that I came to commiserate with another fan base having a rough go under poor leadership.


That seems to have gotten lost somewhere.

It probably got lost in your condescending attitude.

[Jamaaliver]

It probably got lost in your condescending attitude.

Clearly.

But don't let my arrogant tone muddy the message that should be very clear: the salary cap for this team moving forward is very troublesome.

And it will require some hard decisions. Better to get ahead of the game now while you control the situation.

Read on Twitter

[Dat2U]

The Brooks contract is such an embarrassment. Wizards organization top to bottom really has no idea what it’s doing.

Totally punting on trading for Butler shows just how clueless they are - they don’t even realize how bad the situation is and how close they are to being Detroit or Charlotte. They’re basically already there.

I think its alot to assume they can get Butler for Otto. Maybe Minnesota will end up settling for that but I think Minny is probably holding out for more.

[queridiculo]

It probably got lost in your condescending attitude.

Clearly.

But don't let my arrogant tone muddy the message that should be very clear: the salary cap for this team moving forward is very troublesome.

And it will require some hard decisions. Better to get ahead of the game now while you control the situation.

You may not realize this, but this is a small, and very informed fan base.

You're not sharing any groundbreaking data and information here. Posters here are very keenly in tune with where this team is at and where it's going.

So when you waltz in here and present your **** sandwhich and then proceed to lecture everybody when they turn it down in favor of a classic BLT you're going to hear about it.

[Dat2U]

It probably got lost in your condescending attitude.

Clearly.

But don't let my arrogant tone muddy the message that should be very clear: the salary cap for this team moving forward is very troublesome.

And it will require some hard decisions. Better to get ahead of the game now while you control the situation.

Read on Twitter

How much do the Wizards save if they stretched Ian's last year?

[Dat2U]

Its bad, but there is some upside with Wall.

Beal and Oubre to me would be the big moves to make. I think you can reboot this team on the fly by trading both. I love Beal, but feel someone will give up the ranch for him and we should be willing to do it.

...I wouldn't make any move for another month or 2...

Noted.

You guys have any interest in Taurean Prince/John Collins and Kent Bazemore for contract matching? Maybe throw in a top-5 protected pick from Dallas so that we can get our hands on Bradley Beal?


3 & D wings on manageable contracts, young exciting big man. That's gotta at least be in the ballpark, right?

I would only trade Beal for a top asset. Not a hodgepodge of okay picks and players.

[Jamaaliver]

You're not sharing any groundbreaking data and information here. Posters here are very keenly in tune with where this team is at and where it's going.

So when you waltz in here and present your **** sandwhich and then proceed to lecture everybody when they turn it down in favor of a classic BLT you're going to hear about it.

Now you've lost me.

And you're responding to snark with more snark.

(Always a bad combination, especially when I've repeatedly tried to show contrition for my previous tone.)

You're moving away from actual, constructive conversation to personal shots.

I'll back away.

But know that, respectfully, it's going to take major, painful changes to get your squad turned back around:

• Dumping Wall for smaller, more manageable contracts.
  
• Moving Beal for premium assets before he can pull a PG13/Kyrie and force his way out.

[queridiculo]

How much do the Wizards save if they stretched Ian's last year?

Saves the Wizards a little over $10 million in 19/20. He'll count a little over $5 million against the cap over the following two seasons.

[nate33]

It probably got lost in your condescending attitude.

Clearly.

But don't let my arrogant tone muddy the message that should be very clear: the salary cap for this team moving forward is very troublesome.

And it will require some hard decisions. Better to get ahead of the game now while you control the situation.

Read on Twitter

How much do the Wizards save if they stretched Ian's last year?

The cap number isn't all that relevant. The luxtax threshold is what matters. And if the cap is $109M, the luxtax threshold will be north of $135M.

People are overstating the gravity of the situation. The team isn't going to implode because of Wall's contract. It will make it difficult to add any significant talent via free agency, but they'll be able to retain their own. And as you said, Mahinmi can be stretched so that his $15.5M contract only costs $5.2M.

We certainly don't need to make any panic trades like dumping Beal, but I do think it's time to calmly consider a reload trade where we accept a year or two of being out of the playoffs in exchange for more young talent and a better salary situation (i.e. trade Wall).

[queridiculo]

But know that, respectfully, it's going to take major, painful changes to get your squad turned back around:

This is precisely what I am talking about, **** off.

[nate33]

There is hope, and it's linked to what your team can hope to get from a Beal trade.

Again. How does trading Beal give us hope?

We would either be trading him for a slightly better but slightly older player (say, Jimmy Butler) and add 2 or 3 wins while shortening our window, or we would be trading him for cap space plus picks and assets, which means taking a few years to groom young talent to place around an aging star with a $45M a year contract. (Dumping Beal isn't going to give us meaningful cap space, only luxtax breathing room.)

[payitforward]

What's the point of trading Beal for cap room and picks? There will never be cap room as long as Wall is on the roster and Wall doesn't have enough time in his career to wait for a rebuild through the draft.

Better to trade Wall, even if the return is much less. At least Beal and Porter are just 25 years old and are young enough to go through a rebuild.[/quote
If you say so; but know that Beal is likely to be moved in the next year plus.

FTR, I was advocating moving Wall years ago before general consensus caught on. That suggestion was received about as well as the suggestion to trade Beal now.

But it is inevitable that Bradley leaves the dysfunction on that team. It's best for Wiz fans that you capitalize while his stock is at its highest.

Spoiler:

Seriously...you guys need to consider trading John Wall. Don't wait until his value tanks and it's too late....

Yes, you recommended that the team "consider trading John Wall." Which in hindsight (for you as it would for most of us! ) translates into "advocating" trading him.

I actually agree w/ you, btw, that Beal is likely to be traded. But that's not relevant to nate's response: he said it made more sense to trade Wall, & it does. Moreover, if Wall were traded, that would significantly lower the likelihood that Beal would be traded.

[Jamaaliver]

There is hope, and it's linked to what your team can hope to get from a Beal trade.

Again. How does trading Beal give us hope?

Assets and options, Nate dog.

Assets and Options.

Spoiler:

But know that, respectfully, it's going to take major, painful changes to get your squad turned back around:

This is precisely what I am talking about, **** off.

That's...not okay. Disagreeing with me is one thing. But nothing in that statement requires such a...hostile response.

[Jamaaliver]

I actually agree w/ you, btw, that Beal is likely to be traded. But that's not relevant to nate's response: he said it made more sense to trade Wall, & it does. Moreover, if Wall were traded, that would significantly lower the likelihood that Beal would be traded.

Fair enough. Do you think it lowers the likelihood that Beal will want out when he hits UFA?

The culture on the squad seems toxic. I thought removing Gortat from the equation would at least help.

You guys seem likely to recover and make the playoffs this season. But will another second round exit appease Beal long term?

[gtn130]

People are overstating the gravity of the situation. The team isn't going to implode because of Wall's contract. It will make it difficult to add any significant talent via free agency, but they'll be able to retain their own. And as you said, Mahinmi can be stretched so that his $15.5M contract only costs $5.2M.

What happens if Wall loses 5% of his athletic ability due to age/injury? Suddenly the Wizards are capped at ~38 wins. They could offload Porter and Beal and rebuild with Wall on the books, I suppose, but it still makes that contract a pretty bad situation. The sky isn't falling, but I don't see how ultimately that contract will be a positive or even neutral asset.

Same can probably be said for RWB and OKC but they're generally in a better spot than the Wizards.

We certainly don't need to make any panic trades like dumping Beal, but I do think it's time to calmly consider a reload trade where we accept a year or two of being out of the playoffs in exchange for more young talent and a better salary situation (i.e. trade Wall).

Would be in favor of this, but it would require a massive cultural shift starting with Ted changing his thinking.

[pcbothwel]

People are overstating the gravity of the situation. The team isn't going to implode because of Wall's contract. It will make it difficult to add any significant talent via free agency, but they'll be able to retain their own. And as you said, Mahinmi can be stretched so that his $15.5M contract only costs $5.2M.

What happens if Wall loses 5% of his athletic ability due to age/injury? Suddenly the Wizards are capped at ~38 wins. They could offload Porter and Beal and rebuild with Wall on the books, I suppose, but it still makes that contract a pretty bad situation. The sky isn't falling, but I don't see how ultimately that contract will be a positive or even neutral asset.

Same can probably be said for RWB and OKC but they're generally in a better spot than the Wizards.

We certainly don't need to make any panic trades like dumping Beal, but I do think it's time to calmly consider a reload trade where we accept a year or two of being out of the playoffs in exchange for more young talent and a better salary situation (i.e. trade Wall).

Would be in favor of this, but it would require a massive cultural shift starting with Ted changing his thinking.

His athletic advantage/dependence is obvious, but overstated. He is 6'4 and 210 lbs with a massive wingspan. You can see how is game is already maturing as he is getting better at post ups (Both scoring and passing out of it) and finishing through contact.

As he ages and loses speed (only marginal..hes not 35), he will get more savvy at using his size and strength.
As long as he can hit a 3 at a decent rate (35%), then I think we'll be just fine.

[nate33]

People are overstating the gravity of the situation. The team isn't going to implode because of Wall's contract. It will make it difficult to add any significant talent via free agency, but they'll be able to retain their own. And as you said, Mahinmi can be stretched so that his $15.5M contract only costs $5.2M.

What happens if Wall loses 5% of his athletic ability due to age/injury? Suddenly the Wizards are capped at ~38 wins. They could offload Porter and Beal and rebuild with Wall on the books, I suppose, but it still makes that contract a pretty bad situation. The sky isn't falling, but I don't see how ultimately that contract will be a positive or even neutral asset.

Same can probably be said for RWB and OKC but they're generally in a better spot than the Wizards.

We certainly don't need to make any panic trades like dumping Beal, but I do think it's time to calmly consider a reload trade where we accept a year or two of being out of the playoffs in exchange for more young talent and a better salary situation (i.e. trade Wall).

Would be in favor of this, but it would require a massive cultural shift starting with Ted changing his thinking.

His athletic advantage/dependence is obvious, but overstated. He is 6'4 and 210 lbs with a massive wingspan. You can see how is game is already maturing as he is getting better at post ups (Both scoring and passing out of it) and finishing through contact.

As he ages and loses speed (only marginal..hes not 35), he will get more savvy at using his size and strength.
As long as he can hit a 3 at a decent rate (35%), then I think we'll be just fine.

Agreed. His knee is definitely an injury concern, but I'm not that worried with his overall quickness and athleticism. These days, with better nutrition and training, guys don't really decline until at least 32, which is when Wall's contract is up.

People are acting like Wall is some kind of albatross contract like Noah or Melo. It's just not the case. We're talking about a 5-time all star who was 2nd team all NBA just 2 years ago. He's a legit star who puts butts in seats. I can see why some of the analytics driven franchises like Houston, San Antonio or Toronto would think he's overrated, but there are lots of teams like New York, Sacramento and Brooklyn who would gladly take him just to be relevant again.

Heck, even after watching for 8 years and knowing all of his flaws, I can talk myself into thinking that he just needs the right coaching and right system to succeed. Even in this generally awful season, he has been getting into the lane at will (now that he is surrounded by outside shooting). His percentage of shots at the rim has increased from 31% last year to a whopping 45% this year and his FT rate has increased from 36% to 48%! He is 2nd in the league (behind De'Aaron Fox) among non-centers is FT rate. Wall's only real weakness this year has been the uncharacteristically low 3P%. If he shot his career average 3P% this year, his overall TS% would be a career high 57%

Also, as Dat2U constantly points out, the man shows up for the playoffs. He has legit alpha talent. He's not a smoke-and-mirrors talent created out of scheme and execution that falls on his face when a team has time to scout him (like Lowry or Dragic).